1. Winning BusinessModels
July 2012
by Dr.Hartwig Rüll

2. Winning Business Models
 The following charts represent examples of our recent
research:
 Do you want to understand what is driving the success of firms?
 Do you want to identify the key parameters which can improve
- your firm„s profitability
- your firm„s shock resistance
- your cashflow margins
- your firm„s top-line growth
 Do you want to understand which parameters are driving the
success/failure of the projects in your business
 Do you want to challenge the viability of your business plans
Source: H.Rüll

3. Winning Business Models
 We are using well proven statistical methods to identify the key drivers of
success of firms competing in their respective sectors
 Based on these inputs, we identify the key parameters which need to be
changed in order to improve a firm„s performance to reach a selected target
value (e.g.: profitability … shock resistance)
 These parameters are tied to the processes of firms and to their very value
chains
 With the help of these critical parameters we can then challenge the soundness
of forecasts in business plans/financial models
 Further, we can position/benchmark these companies, within their sectors as
well as cross sectors
 Using our approach further, we are able to identify the critical parameters which
are driving projects towards success/failure
 Our experience shows, that we are able to significantly reduce the number of
project parameters which need to be monitored in order to ensure that projects
will achieve their respective targets
Source: H.Rüll

4. Winning Business Models
 Contents:
 Defining Winning Business Models; Examples
 Process Velocity; Value Chain Velocity and the
Superiority Index
 Example: Telco Equipment Sector
 Superiority Index and Forecasting/Challenging of
Financial Models
 Superiority Index and Valuation of Firms
 Reducing Risks in Project Businesses
Source: H.Rüll

5. Winning Business Models
 Today, companies are no longer competing on products, services or business-
processes alone, instead, in the end they are competing on business models
 Business model innovations are always
 strategic and
 disruptive
 They change the business logic and the competition in a very fundamental
way
R.Scheuss; Handbuch der Strategien
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

6. Winning Business Models
Defining “Winning Business Models”
 Winning Business Models should yield above average
 Shock resistance (meaning: in times of crisis, the profitability should remain
rather robust
 Profitability
 Liquidity
 Revenue growth
 These four metrics are captured in the form of the “Target-Diamond” the larger
the diamond, the closer a firm is relative to the “Winning Business Model”-status
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

7. Winning Business Models
The quest for business models offering:
 shock resistance,
 profitable growth and Shock Resistance
 liquidity
The Answer:
Growth Profitability
 high internal velocity
 fast value chains
 IT is used as a strategic weapon
Liquidity
Source: H.Rüll

8. Winning Business Models: Communications Equipment Sector
Doing more with less… "Winning Business Model"
 Example: Cisco vs Alcatel-Lucent;
 Cisco is clearly outperforming Alcatel-Lucent in all four
Shock Resistance
metrics
92%
 Ebit Margin in sector-crisis in % of
“normal“ Ebit Margin
 Average sales growth last three years
-111%
0,2%
Growth Profitability
-4,4%
0,1% 28,5%
9%
Alcatel-
Lucent Cisco
29%
Liquidity
*NOTE: All numbers are 3-years averages
Source: H. Rüll, DB
Source: H.Rüll

9. Winning Business Models
Examples:
 The Telco Equipment sector during the collapse of the internet bubble
 Cisco, Juniper, Nokia, are exhibiting only a small dip in their profitability,
whereas their competitors are taking a deep dive
 Semiconductor sector
 The leading firms are showing a high level of shock-resistance, whereas their
competitors are exhibiting losses in 2009
Note:
 Similar patterns can be found in sectors like
 steel
 paper
 software
 …
 automotive
 In total we analyzed ca. 600 firms in ca. 20 different sectors
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

10. Winning Business Models: A different look at the equipment sector
Winning Business Models at work
 Superior companies are much more robust against sector downturns than
incumbent/trailing companies
15 Superior firms
12,3 12,7  Note: Superior
Op. Profits $ bn  Cisco 11,7
 Nokia 10,4 12,6
companies are on
10  Juniper 11,4 their way towards
9,8 9,5 9,7
the “Winning
7,6 7,5 Business Model”
5 3,3 status
 Examples for
0 Years superior
2000 O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 companies:
-5
 Dell
Trailing firms
 Lucent  Wal-Mart
 Nortel  ...
-10  Alcatel
10,5-
 Ericsson
 Avaya
-15  Tellabs
16,4-
-20
Source: H.Rüll Source: CBSB, JPM, H. Rüll

11. Winning Business Models: Semiconductor Sector
The EBITDA-Margin of trailing firms is taking a deep dive during the crisis 08/09,
whereas the profitability of the leading firms exhibit only a small DIP in 2009.
Leading Firms
Trailing Firms
Shock Resistance
Leading Firms 91%
Trailing Firms -42%
Years 06/07 vs. 08/09
Source: H.Rüll

12. Winning Business Models
 We analyzed more than 600 firms in high-tech sectors as well as in low-tech
sectors and in the services segments
 Our research led to two key findings:
1. Firms with fast processes outperformed their slower competitors
2. Firms with lean value chains outperformed their “bulkier” competitors
 We capture the process speed in the form of the “Cash Velocity” and we
measure the leanness of value chains by the parameter: “Value Chain Velocity”
 Both metrics are measured in days … the fewer the number of days, the better a
company‟s performance
 To derive Cash Velocity and Value Chain Velocity, we use publicly available data
(P&L-Statement, balance sheet …)
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

13. Winning Business Models
 These two parameters show very clearly how a given company is
positioned/performing within its sector
 Further, this positioning indicates which parameters of a firm need to be improved
by what amount to increase the company‟s performance
 In a next step, we combine Cash Velocity and Value Chain Velocity into one single
parameter: the Superiority Index (SI)
 The Superiority Index captures the distance of a given firm from the sector average
 A positive SI-value shows, that the firm‟s position is above average
 SI = 0 means, the firm is performing equal to the sector average
 A negative SI-value indicates, the firm is performing below average
 The Superiority Index shows a strong correlation with key financial metrics
such as shock resistance, profitability, cash flow … valuation
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

14. Towards superiority – Example: Telco Equipment Sector
 Firms in the superiority zone are outperforming their competitors from the
problem zone
Shock Resistance
- + 103,4% Superiority
Zone
Superiority -273%
-1,3%
Zone Growth Profitability
Problem -1,2%
1,4% 36,2%
Zone 19,6%
Neutral
Zone Problem
Zone
36,5%
Liquidity
Superiority Index
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Rüll; Data: UBS; Reuters

15. Winning Business Models
 The Superiority Index reflects both the key properties of a firm‟s processes and
the key properties of a firm‟s value chain
 Processes and value chains are not changed easily over night. Hence, the
Superiority Index serves as a good indicator of a firm‟s future performance
 The following example shows this for the Telco sector:
We took the Value Chain Velocity (≡ SI in this case) of the year 2005 and tested it
against the profitability of the subsequent years.
Findings: The profitability of the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 (shown here)
correlated very well with the Superiority Index of 2005
 This result is encouraging
 We can use these findings to gauge the future performance of firms to a certain
extend and to challenge the financial modelling
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

16. Winning business models: Forecasting Example: Telco Sector
 We are starting from the value chain velocity (VCV) of the year 2005 and study
the relationship between the VCV in 2005 and the profitability of subsequent
years
 As shown in the charts below, the correlation remains astonishingly high even for
the year 2009-profitability measured against the 2005-VCV
Source: H.Rüll H. Rüll; Data: CG, Reuters
Source:

17. Winning Business Models
 As our further research showed, the Superiority Index SI is correlating well with
the valuation of firms in a given sector
 As an example we show the correlation between the valuation measured in
enterprise value / sales and the superiority index for the semiconductor sector
(linear semiconductors)
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

18. Tight relationship between valuation (EV/S) and the
Superiority Index (SI) of firms
Example:
Linear Semiconductors
Source: H.Rüll; Data: CG, JPM, UBS
H.Rüll

19. Winning Business Models: Success Factors of
Projects
 We can apply our analytical approach to investigate the relationship between
project parameters and the success rate of projects
 The key question here is:
“Which parameters are tightly correlated with the success / failure of projects?”
 In all cases we were able to significantly reduce the number of parameters,
management would have to monitor in order to manage projects successfully
 Based on these findings, we can build easy to use “Early Warning Systems”
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

20. Winning Business Models: Identifying key
parameters impacting the success of projects
Key Question:
Which parameters exert the highest impact on the success of projects?
competitors
Focus:
Production / Engineering
The Force Field
Target
unit / activity
corporate
influence
Source: H.Rüll

21. Winning Business Models: Identifying key
parameters impacting the success of projects
 Our analysis identified six significant parameters (out of 15 parameters in use)
 Combined into the figure of merit, these parameters show a high correlation with the
project results (overtime)
Source: H.Rüll

22. Winning Business Models: Identifying key
parameters impacting the success of projects
 In another example, we were able
to reduce the number of process
parameters necessary to monitor
the success of projects by a factor
of six!
 When combined into the figure of
merit … these parameters yielded
a very good correlation with the
target parameter: “deviation from
target”
Source: H.Rüll

23. Winning Business Models: Evaluating Business
Plans
 Further, we can use our approach to evaluate the consistency of
business plans on the corporate level and/or on the divisional level
 We analyze a firm„s past performance and identify the key drivers of
performance/success
 We then take these drivers and study how well they are correlating with
the performance of the group for the planning periods ahead
 Example: Firm X
Source: H.Rüll © Dr. Hartwig Ruell – Senior Excellence 23

24. Winning Business Models: Business Plans of Firm X
Observation: whereas the actuals for
2012 are varying widely along the
regression line, the planned values for
the year 2013 are concentrated in the
upper right corner (high profitability)
Source: H.Rüll

25. Winning Business Models: Business Plans of Firm X
Observation: this chart shows the
profitability of firm X vs. one of the key
drivers of profitability of this firm.
Note the discrapency in the area
between the dotted lines: actuals vs.
planned values: although the key
drivers of profitability remain
unchanged, the planned profitabilities
(2013) exceed the actuals (2012) by a
factor of 5-6!
Source: H.Rüll

26. Winning Business Models
RPV-Theory: Organisations successfully tackle opportunities when…
 They have the resources to succeed
 Their processes facilitate what needs to be done
 Their values allow to prioritize
Value chain
velocity (VCV)
Resources What a firm has
Cash How a firm
What a firm
RPV velocity does its work
wants to do
Theory (CV)
Values Processes
 With our approach, we capture two key metrics of the RPV-theory:
Resources and Processes
Source: H.Rüll
Source: Clayton M. Christensen, H.Ruell

27. Thank you
Source: H.Rüll