The document discusses using a Superiority Index (SI) and Value Chain Velocity (VCV) to predict future firm performance. It provides an example showing that a telco sector firm's 2005 VCV strongly correlated with its profitability in subsequent years 2006-2009. This suggests the SI and VCV can be used to forecast future firm performance and challenge traditional financial modeling.

1. Robuste Prognosen

2. Winning Business Models
 The Superiority Index reflects both the key properties of a firm’s processes and
the key properties of a firm’s value chain
 Processes and value chains are not changed easily over night. Hence, the
Superiority Index serves as a good indicator of a firm’s future performance
 The following example shows this for the Telco sector:
We took the Value Chain Velocity (≡ SI in this case) of the year 2005 and tested it
against the profitability of the subsequent years.
Findings: The profitability of the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 (shown here)
correlated very well with the Superiority Index of 2005
 This result is encouraging
 We can use these findings to gauge the future performance of firms to a certain
extend and to challenge the financial modelling
Source: H.Rüll
Source: H.Ruell

3. Winning business models: Forecasting Example: Telco Sector
 We are starting from the value chain velocity (VCV) of the year 2005 and study
the relationship between VCV in 2005 and the profitability of subsequent years
 As shown in the charts below, the correlation remains astonishingly high even for
the year 2009-profitability measured against the 2005-VCV
Source: H.Rüll H. Rüll; Data: CG, Reuters
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