Over the next 10 years, retirements will account for over twice as many job openings as new jobs created by economic expansion, which is expected to grow jobs at only 1.1% annually. Retirements are expected to rise steadily, creating 3.8 million job openings due to workers leaving their jobs through retirement at an average of 2.4% of the workforce each year. This significant increase in retirements will be the primary driver of job openings over expansion demand by 2015, as nearly 80% of job openings will result from retirements rather than new positions.

1. Employment growth due to expansion demand is simply the result of new jobs being created through
increased economic activity. The second source of job openings comes from workers leaving their jobs
because of retirements.
Over the past 10 years, expansion demand has accounted for about half of all job openings. Over the
next 10 years, however, this pattern will change significantly. Expansion demand is expected to grow at
an annual average rate of 1.1% over the period, creating 1.7 million non-student jobs. On the other hand,
approximately 3.8 million people are expected to retire — an average of 2.4% of the workforce each year.
In other words, over twice as many jobs will open up due to the retirement of workers in existing
jobs as from the creation of new jobs.
Accordingly, retirements as a share of job openings will rise steadily over the forecast period, reaching
almost 80% by 2015. This development will be driven by the aging of the population and the overall
slowdown in employment growth.
The number of retirements from employment in the Canadian economy is expected to rise markedly over
the next decade: the annual retirement rate, calculated as the number of retirements divided by the level
of non-student employment, is expected to rise steadily from 2.1% in 2005 to 2.6% in 2015, resulting in
approximately 3.8 million retirements over the 2006-15 period.