The Climate Analogue Concept• Compare locations based on similarities in precipitation and temperature but designed to identify analogues based on other features data (soil, social and economic conditions)• Williams et al. (2007) state that there is likely to be 30% novel climates under climate change That means that there are 70% of already existing climates projected to 2100 for sites!• We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds – GCM projections – Crop models, household models, farming system models
Benefits of an analogue approach• Still large uncertainties remain regarding future projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on farming systems, especially at the local level.• Until now, the adaptive capacity of communities is a factor rarely taken into account in the global/regional models on which policy makers often rely• The use of climate analogues for locating future climates today can ground models in field-based realities, significantly enhancing our knowledge of adaptation capacity and supporting the identification of appropriate interventions.
Possible analoguesBACKWARD s Adaptat ion option OTHER SITE (s) MY SITE (current) (future)• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?
Possible analoguesFORWARD options Adaptation OTHER SITE (s) MY SITE (future) (current)• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the future?
Possible analogues NONE options Ada ptation OTHER SITE (s) MY SITE (current) (current)• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the world currently?