LOGISTICA SIN FRONTERAS

1. IMPORTS ANDCONSULTING TROPISAS.
IMPORTS AND CONSULTING TROPI SAS is a company dedicated to the
import of consumer products and advising brand positioning in purely
commercial Colombia, the working capital is represented in their
inventories, it is essential to have a rigorous control over it, thus ensuring
optimizing their processes along the supply chain. Therefore you need to
keep a constant track of your sales through projective techniques where
is the most appropriate sales forecasting.
Forecasts are the initial basis for the process of planning the distribution
of a product as its result it is the basis for the next stage, so that if a
mistake is made in this process, the consequences will be seen in all its
stages. Therefore, the company has established a control indicator of their
forecasts, this to ensure that the errors of the forecasts do not impact
that endangers all the planning of the company.
For the coming years, the company plans to increase the amount of
imported references, to reach new markets. Therefore, better forecasting
process is required to prevent loss of earnings due to the high costs of
these products.
IMPROVEMENTS
1. For the simulation of the forecast of demand for imports and tropi
consulting sas. it will use the sales history of tropi distributors
nationwide group as these represent the largest sales of our
imports. keep in mind that these distributors are intermediate
customers (demand-dependent sell in retail outlets) and not end
consumers clients, so this term demand forecasting simulation work
for this activity.
2. For the realization of the forecast is to be used as elements
cumulative sales in 2014 of group tropi distributors nationwide
success, stores the 14 olympic and comfandi. and with this data to
forecast demand for love sales month of 2015.
3. The company was asked the most common time for your projection
forecasts and provided a range of one month to a maximum of one
year, three months being the most common. being consistent with
this, methods that provide good performance in the short and
medium term sought.
FORECASTING
> CAROLINA BOLAÑOS
PANTOJA
TECHNOLOGY IN
LOGISTICS
MANAGEMENT (854510)
SENA: National
Apprenticeship Service
https://about.me/caro830

2. Página 2
4. The prediction model that we use is the simple moving average,
which offers advantages such as low complexity, excellent results
and dare microsoft excel software have the option to implement
changes and adjustments more easily and invest additional costs
other software that require licensing.
5. For the collection of information and historical sales data for the
simulation of the forecast took into account the behavior that they
have had to over the last periods of 2014. for the project the
following equipment is necessary : computers: 2 portable computers
for project documentation and development tool is needed. it is
required to have internet access and some basic software package
installed as microsoft office (excel, word, powerpoint). human:
apprentices: alejandra lopera, john jader granada, leidy bolaños and
jenny carolina agredo. the sales executive harold bermeo. chief
statistics importropi cristian quintero
6. Historical facts tropi sas import and advisors: following figure
shows the historical sales data by month in 2014 and its indicator
value with respect to inventories of the same year.
For the simulation wewill consider only the cumulative sales month of 2014.
Following Figure shows the simulation conducted by 2015 from the data.
For this activity we call an as a constant representing the number of
periods to average, which in this case we say that (n = 3) and the average
for 2014 weadd 10% we consider acceptable under previous years to obtain
the value 2015.
CONCLUSIONS
IMPORTS AND
ADVISORS TROPI SAS
data used to sell in the
forecast, as they
represent direct sales.
Although not
recommended that these
data be taken because
they are dependent
demands Sell Out, they
will be used for testing in
order to compare
forecasts that the
company has provided.
The project is designed in
order to put it into
practice and improve
some deficiencies
presented in their
organization and lack of
communication with its
customers to meet their
needs and make a variant
as meet the needs until
you are satisfied end
customers and thus
familiarizing and
fraternizing with
customers and their type
of market.

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REFERENCES
(Ramanathan, 2006)
http://bibliotecadigital.i
cesi.edu.co/biblioteca_di
gital/bitstream/10906/7
6621/1/elaboracion_her
ramienta_pronostico.pdf
(Ballou, 2004)