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European Energy Outlook
1. European Energy Outlook
Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and oil & gas industries
Colette Lewiner
4th Annual EPiCentre Conference
April 26th, 2012
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
2. Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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3. Global demand for oil has increased in 2011
World oil demand increased in 2011 by 0.88 million
barrels per day (mbpd), i.e. +1.01% (to 87.82 mbpd) World oil demand outlook
compared with 2010 (86.94 mbpd) mbpd mbpd
120.0 120.0
According to the latest OPEC projections*, worldwide
oil consumption is expected to increase by 0.98% in
100.0 110.0 Other transition economies
2012 (to 88.63 mbdp) Russia
OPEC
„000 b/d Quarterly world oil demand growth „000 b/d 80.0 100.0 China
Southeast Asia
South Asia
60.0 90.0
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
OECD Pacific
40.0 80.0
Western Europe
North America
World (right axis)
20.0 70.0
0.0 60.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: World Oil Outlook 2011, OPEC
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – March 2012
Primary factors driving demand are economic growth and increased
requirements in the developing world
Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt and Iran… political situation may place global
production and transportation at risk
*OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Monthly Oil Market Report, March 2012
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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4. The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying
for global oil supply
Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros
After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil
(about 20%)
In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations failure,
the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran, who, in
return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz:
• Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf
• Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should hit
450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports
But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and
the EU right away
In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could Source: France inflation
reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total, between
Average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz (2011)
25% and 35% of Iran‟s oil exports could be impacted
14 crude oil tankers
However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its
production to curb price
Source: Financial Times
Almost 17 million barrels
However, economic slowdown 35% 20%
combined with Saudi Arabia extra-
supply could lead to a market shift of all seaborne of oil traded
traded oil worldwide
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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5. High crude prices open the door to more technological
resources
Break even oil price in 2010 (Internal Rate of Return > 10%)
For the first time in 2011,
average oil prices
Average oil prices
exceeded $100/bl
Brent crude is forecasted at
$117/bl in 2012 and $123/bl
in 2014*
Giant discoveries over
2000-2010 were
concentrated on six themes:
• Grabens and rifts
• Pre-salt carbonates
• Large deltas
• Abrupt margins Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012
• Foothills and mountain
belts
• Unconventional Source: IEA, CERA, Total
Significant resources are yet to be produced but this requires
advanced technology and large scale investments
* Estimation Deutsche Bank, January 2012
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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6. More complex projects and higher environmental challenges,
in high-potential segments
Recent accidents (Macondo, Elgin) are highlighting the need for safer
oil & gas development
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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7. High profile accidents are raising concerns and costs
April 20, 2010 Macondo blowout March 25, 2012 Elgin gas leak
BP‟s Deepwater Horizon wellhead blowout North Sea Elgin platform is operated by Total
Largest accidental marine oil spill in the history of the “A well control problem" occurred on the wellhead
petroleum industry so far platform
11 people killed on the platform and 17 others injured Nearly 240 workers evacuated
Unabated spill for three months: about 4.9 million Leak of 200,000 cubic meters of gas per day and
barrels of crude oil released some 5-9 t/day of condensate into the North Sea
BP has estimated the 85-day spill cost to $40 billion, creating a risk of explosion
including response and compensation The accident is costing around $2.5 million a day in a
BP's share price lost 30% since the accident combination of lost production and containment efforts
Total is trying to set up a “top kill” operation to stop the
gas leak and is also proceeding with a separate plan to
drill two relief wells to divert the flowing gas
Total‟s share price lost 7% immediately after the
accident
Deep offshore oil and gas exploration and production
is a risky business as all industrials activities
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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8. One industry response to Macondo accident – MWCC
MWCC members as of April 2012
Background:
On April 20, 2010, the semi-submersible exploratory offshore rig
Deepwater Horizon exploded after a blowout, killing 11 people and
leaving the Macondo field in the Gulf of Mexico flowing with uncapped oil
of up to 60,000 barrels a day – as a result, all drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
was stopped
Drilling will only resume once companies set up containment plans (both
technological and strategic) to prove that they can respond effectively for additional
companies
a potential future disaster can
become
members
Company Description:
The Marine Well Containment Company (MWCC) is an industry-funded MWCC
consortium committed to improving capabilities for containing a potential
future underwater blowout in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
The technology (one component pictured) is an advanced, rapid-
response system that will significantly exceed current Gulf response
capabilities
The system will be flexible, adaptable and able to begin mobilization
within 24 hours of a spill, and it would be operational within weeks
While technology is being constructed, the company is also building on
industry lessons learned from the recent Gulf incident and is securing
existing capture equipment for near-term use, should it be needed
Source: MWCC
MWCC is part of multiple industry efforts to improve prevention, well
intervention and spill response
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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9. Marine Well Containment System (2012)
Functionality:
Containment capability of up to 100,000 barrels per day with
potential for expansion - well beyond the size and scope of the
Deepwater Horizon incident
The system will include specially designed subsea and surface
equipment to fully contain the oil with no flow to the sea
A newly designed and fabricated subsea containment assembly
(SCA) will create a permanent connection and seal to prevent oil
from escaping into the ocean
Increasing current well containment capabilities in the Gulf, it will
be compatible with a wide range of well designs and equipment,
oil and natural gas flow rates and weather conditions
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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10. Capgemini’s Emergency Preparedness and Response
Assessment offer to MWCC
Capgemini‟s role MWCC / Industry Benefits
Support the launch of MWCC to help launch this new venture
on behalf of ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhilips and
BP – this includes: • 50,000 people are back to work in the
Define the business strategy region
Define the long-term financial picture • Unleash > $10,000,000,000 in
Design all Operations & Maintenance processes and delayed investment
procedures around developing, maintaining and deploying • Companies who join MWCC receive
the equipment the containment technology,
Establish the high-level organizational structure, operations, and services for prompt
governance, roles, and responsibilities disaster relief
Establish core back-office capabilities in Finance & • Through this project, we are helping 5
Accounting, HR and IT of the 15 largest companies in the
Set-up the physical business office for Day 1 (functions, world get back to work in one of the
facilities, infrastructure) most critical regions of their business
Support the development of the steady state company
across all functions to be sized according to the scope and
scale of the organization (30-50 people) plus transition
Ultimately, we are building this industry-changing corporation: from devising the corporate
vision and mission with the CEO to procuring coveralls and protective eyewear
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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11. 24/7 Logistic & Emergency Response Center for a large oil &
gas operator
Focus areas and key questions to be addressed
Environmental
Key stakeholders in the emergency logistics have usually the
SWRCP associations following set of requirements which influence the setup of the
Logistic and Emergency Response Centre (LERC):
Platform and
processing operations • Stability
Field Operating Centres
• Quality
• Flexibility
• Responsiveness
• Availability
2. To setup an effective and efficient LERC, the following key areas and
3. Response critical questions in relation to the phases in emergency
Preparedness
management (Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery)
have to be addressed:
1. Vision and objectives
̵ The role and objectives of LERC in various LERC operation modes
Logistics Emergency 2. Organisation
Response Centre
̵ Centralised vs. Decentralised position and impact on other
operation centres
1. Prevention 4. Recovery ̵ Resource utilisation in different operation modes
3. Governance
̵ Roles & Responsibilities
̵ Responsibility division between stakeholders and across the
interfaces
4. Process and routines
̵ Operation mode specific process and routines
̵ Process coupling across the stakeholder interfaces
Internal units External suppliers 5. Systems and architecture
̵ Demand on the IT infrastructure and information transparency
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
12. Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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13. Fukushima accident first safety lessons learned
The accident First safety lessons learned
Exceptional circumstances: 9.0-magnitude undersea Need to design plant infrastructures for really exceptional
earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011 earthquakes and tsunamis
triggering a tsunami that travelled up to 10 km inland. Simultaneous natural catastrophes have to be taken into
Fukushima nuclear plant: 6 boiling water reactors account
(BWR) maintained by TEPCO have been hit by the Spent fuel storage and management policy to be
earthquake and tsunami: rethought
• Reactors 4, 5 and 6 were shut down prior to the earthquake Emergency measures to be revisited
for maintenance.
• Remaining reactors shut down automatically after the Cooling systems redundancy to be re-assessed
earthquake. Grid electricity supply for cooling purposes Radiological permanent control on the site and around
collapsed and then the tsunami flooded the plant, knocking Crisis management and crisis communication to be re-
out emergency generators.
designed
• 20 km radius evacuation around the plant from March 12
Nuclear bodies and governance
Highest rating (level 7) on the International Nuclear
Event Scale. Second level 7 rating in history, following
Chernobyl
However, experts estimate that radiation health effects Nuclear operators need to be prepared for
should be “very minimal” for both the public and beyond-design-basis external events and
workers*
improve emergency preparedness and
communication (to restore public trust in
* Kathryn Higley, professor of radiation health physics in the
nuclear energy)
department of nuclear engineering at Oregon University (US)
and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI, Woods
Hole, Massachusetts, USA)
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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14. The safety inspections launched on existing plants should
lead to additional investments
Safety tests aim to assess: Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012)
• Plants’ resistance to simultaneous and exceptional 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
catastrophes (flooding and earthquakes) MWe
China
• On site emergency preparedness and information USA
• Radiation protection of people and the environment Russia
India
• And in Japan, change of governance around nuclear Japan
safety questions France
South Korea
The “stress tests” reports released by all 14 EU United Kingdom
nuclearized Member States national nuclear regulators Ukraine
do not require any plant closure Canada
UAE Operable
Outside Europe, nuclear stress tests are also on-going: Saudi Arabia Under construction
• China: 34 reactors passed the safety checks of which 26 Germany
South Africa Planned
are being built. On-going R&D projects to improve Vietnam Proposed
emergency response mechanisms in case of extreme Turkey
disasters (to be completed around 2013). Approval for Sweden
new projects is suspended until the release of a new Spain
Finland
Nuclear Safety Plan (expected by mid-2012). New Czech Republic
projects should resume at a pace of three or four per Brazil
year (slower growth than before Fukushima accident). Switzerland
Source: World Nuclear Association
• US: The nuclear regulator (NRC) stated that “every plant
has the capability to effectively cool down reactor cores
and spent fuel pools following extreme events” The vast majority of new constructions and
• Japan: no closure of nuclear plants is required by existing plants in operation should continue with
central safety authority. However, for local acceptance some delays and more safety focus.
questions, only one reactor out of 54 is still in operation
The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by
Additional CAPEX and OPEX will push nuclear more than 70% over the period to 2035
electricity costs up. Nevertheless, nuclear energy stays
competitive *IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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15. Following Fukushima accident, the French nuclear safety
authority has asked for additional safety evaluations
Map of French nuclear reactors The additional safety evaluations were run in a 2 steps approach
The six evaluation
domains asked by
the French nuclear Analysis to take into account events that
may occur beyond the current framework
safety authority: and if needed, implementation of
complementary resources
• Earthquake
• Flooding Re-evaluation of existing
• Cooling supply human and technical 2
resources against the
disruption current framework
• Power supply
disruption 1
• Major accidents
management
• Contractors Source: EDF
management
The safety evaluations concluded that:
• All 58 French reactors are compliant with current
Source: EDF safety levels
• Complementary measures are needed in case of
exceptional and simultaneous natural disasters
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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16. EDF decided to strengthen its crisis organization and
associated human and technical resources
Strengthen on-site competencies
Organization and procedures optimization
• Training and learning programs
Nuclear Rapid Action Force
Local resources of crisis management: combination
of national and regional resources
Plug and play cooling and power supply
connection
Local crisis center
• Dedicated premises for crisis management, more robust
and better dimensioned to manage an accident impacting
an entire site for a long period
These measures will increase the already good
safety level of French nuclear reactors
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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17. EDF’s Nuclear Rapid Action Force
After Fukushima nuclear accident, EDF decided to set up a special unit (FARN
in French for Force d’Action Rapide Nucléaire) to be deployed to help any
French nuclear power plant site in case of a major nuclear accident:
• Dedicated human and material resources:
• Around 100 EDF “on-call” employees
• Equipment to provide emergency cooling and power supply to prevent core melt
• Operational in less than 24 hours and 24/7
• As a support to complement local teams
• FARN is designed to cope with accidents affecting two reactors at one site
by 2013 and four reactors simultaneously in 2014.
• FARN will comprise one national team and four regional teams based at
EDF's Civaux, Dampierre, Bugey and Paluel sites
• In October 2011, a crisis exercise was held in Cruas-Meysse plant with the
objective to test the warning system and the crisis organization to be deployed
by the public authorities and EDF
• The Emergency Response Task Force is planned to be implemented by
mid-October 2012 (finalized by end 2014)
• EDF estimates a €250 million investment to set up the FARN. Then, the annual
operating budget is forecasted to range between €50 and €100 million.
Capgemini Consulting is supporting EDF in designing
and implementing the Nuclear Rapid Action Force
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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18. Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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19. How to manage the long lifecycle of oil & gas platforms and
nuclear plants
4-10 1-7 10-30 ~1
years years years year
Source: Total
Oil exploration and production is a long lifecycle activity
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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20. Nuclear power plant lifecycle spans over 70 years
40-60
year
~1
year
6-7
years
Source: TVO
Asset lifecycle management is a key challenge in both oil
exploration and production and nuclear energy industries
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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21. Nuclear lifetime extension requests will be scrutinized
Overview of the nuclear plants lifetime extension in Europe before the accident
Nuclearized countries SE: Oskarshamn 3 (operating since 1985) FI: Mid 2007, +20 years for Fortum's 2 reactors at Loviisa, (to
uprating is to be finalized by 2013, 2027 and 2030), subject to safety evaluation in 2015 and 2023.
5 extending its lifetime to 60 years (approved TVO's Olkiluoto 1&2 started up in 1978-80; lifetime extended to
Number of reactors in operation in 2010). Plans to uprate Oskarshamn 2 60 years, subject to safety evaluation every decade. Expected
and extend its life to 60 years shutdown in 2039 and 2042
UK: The last 3 Magnox reactors are due to shut down by the
end of 2012, after life extensions of 9 months to 2 years. DE: In September 2010, the government agreed to give 8-year
NL: 2006: Life
5-year extension for Hinkley Point B and Hunterston B (to 2016) licence extensions for reactors built before 1980 (i.e. to 40
extension to 2033 for years), and 14-year extensions for later ones (i.e. to 46 years).
obtained in 2007 and for Hartlepool and Heysham 1 (to 2019) the only plant
obtained in 2010. 4 Operators to pay a “fuel element tax” totaling €2.3 billion/year
(Borssele, 485 MWe) FI for 6 years and an “eco-tax” of about €15 billion.
10-year extension for Dungeness B (to 2018) obtained in 2005.
Plant Lifetime Extension (PLEX) program could enable life NO 10 All these arrangements were thrown into doubt when in March
extension of all other AGR plants by 5 years in average and 2011 the government decided to phase out nuclear energy by
Sizewell B (PWR) by 20 years SE 2022, starting with the immediate shut-down of 8 plants.
EE
BE: October 2009: introduction of a nuclear tax of €250 DK
LV
Source: World Nuclear Association – Capgemini analysis
million/year till the end of lifetime. December 2011: according to IE 18
LT CZ: 2009: +10 years (to 40 years) for the 4
the nuclear safety agency, FANC, the three oldest reactors (Doel Dukovany’s reactors (CEZ) operating since 1985-87).
1&2 and Tihange), would be able to safely continue beyond 2015.
UK 1
But political uncertainty remains: a decision was taken in autumn NL 9 Further extension to 60 years is under consideration
PL
2011 to phase out nuclear progressively between 2015 and 2025. 7 BE DE
LU 6 SK: Upgrade program on the Bohunice units operating
CZ
4 since 1984-85 held from 2005 to 2008 by Slovenské
FR: In July 2009 the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) SK
Elektrárne, with a 40-year life extension in view (to 2025)
approved EDF's safety case for 40-year operation of the 34 FR AT
CH HU 4
existing 900 MWe units. 58 5
In July 2010, EDF said that it was assessing the prospect of
SI 1 RO
60-year lifetimes for all its existing reactors. 8 2 HU: The 4 Paks reactors are licensed to 2012-17.
ES IT 20-year life extension submitted. The application
BG
PT for the extension of the operating license of the
ES: 4-year life extension for the Santa Maria de Garona plant to 2013 2 first unit is due to be submitted to the HAEA
obtained in 2009, should be further prolonged. Almarez 1&2 and Vandellos SI/CR: 20-year life before the end of 2011
2 were granted 10-year life extension for (to 2020) in 2010. In February extension (to 2043) GR
2011, the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) recommended a 10-year requested for Krško
extension for Cofrentes, and did the same for Asco 1&2 in July 2011. In operated by Slovenia BG: Kozloduy 5&6 units are licensed to 2017 and
February 2011, parliament removed a legal provision limiting nuclear plant and Croatia 2019, with plans to extend their life to 50 years
operating lives to 40 years
Since the Fukushima accident, Asco 1&2 in Spain and Fessenheim in France (under
conditions) lifetime extensions have been accepted by the nuclear regulators
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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22. Asset Life Cycle Management: software packages
seamlessly managing construction, operations and
“Engineering
functionalities” “Life Cycle
maintenance
Management
2010 Functions”
Product Life
2000
Cycle
Management
ALM
PLM
“Operation and
Maintenance
Functions”
Content
Project
1990 Management Product Data
Management
PDM EAM
CAD CMMS Maintenance Operation Back Office
EDM functionalities
1980
HR
Finance
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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23. EDF – information system upgrade dedicated to its
nuclear generation fleet maintenance
EDF‟s nuclear reactors maintenance applications upgrade project is called SDIN (Système
d’Information du Nucléaire, i.e. Nuclear IT system) and is defined based on Industry Standards
Solution:
• Corporate Asset Management (EAM) software for plant operation
• Document control software (ECM) for documentation
• Service-oriented architecture (SOA)
• The project aims to integrate these packages within a National Nuclear Information System supporting an
upgraded Engineering and Operation operating model
The project will support improvement in the areas of:
• Nuclear safety and radiation protection
• Availability of the Nuclear Power Plant
• Operating cost management
• Plant lifetime extension beyond 40 years
• EPR New Plant Commissioning and Operation
• The SDIN is also a support for EDF business projects linked to deployment of world operation’s standards
AP913 and AP928
EDF‟s nuclear capacities utilization rate (“kd”) improved from 78% in 2009 to 80.7% in 2011.
EDF targets a kd around 85% by 2015
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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24. Business Functions covered by SDIN Project
Business Plant
Model scope Operation
Scope
Radio- Outage
protection Return On Planning
Experience
Business
Tools, Indicators &
Measurements Reports
Operation &
Maintenance
Spare Parts Resources
Catalog &qualifications
Portal
Finance, Documents & CAD tools In Operation Human
Supply Chain system engineering Resources
SDIN
Project scope
Capgemini has built the Enterprise Asset Management system using Ventyx software for the
58 French nuclear reactors. This system is to be deployed progressively in all 19 sites
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
25. Common lessons learned and solutions for the nuclear and
oil & gas industries
Recent events in the oil & gas industry
The nuclear industry after Fukushima accident
A common point to nuclear and oil & gas industries: assets long lifecycle
Energy mix evolutions
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
25
26. The gas paradigm is changing
In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main World primary natural gas demand by
assumptions are: sector and scenario
• China ambitious policy for gas use
• Increased power plants‟ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy
• Sustained low gas price
However, CO2 emissions lead to a high +3.5°C temperature
increase instead of an acceptable +2°C
Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm)
SE: 1,148
NO: 2,324
PL: 5,236
Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report
FR: 5,040
Shale gas changes the gas
perspective:
• It increases the total gas
resources to 250 years of
consumption
• It is widely distributed
• It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US)
• It allows to repatriate gas
consuming industries as
Largest EU technically recoverable
FR: 5,040
shale gas resources (bcm) chemicals and to fight against
Source: EIA
deindustrialization
* GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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27. Renewable energies have continued their quick development.
For how long?
As of May 2011, 10% of the European Growth rate of renewable energy sources
generation plants under construction 110% 2008
Solar PV Top 3 countries ranked by:
are from renewable energy sources (vs. Capacity Growth (abs.) Growth (%)
100% Capacity installed* Growth** (absolute)
7% in 2009) DE DE SK
1. DE 1. SK
In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU 90%
2005
IT CZ FR
2. ES 2. FR
CZ FR SI
wind installed capacity due to the 3. IT 3. SI
financial crisis and tougher regulations, 80% 2010
* Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV
wind power covered over 5% of EU‟s
in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh
** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and
70% wind
consumption (172 TWh)
Many governments have or are launching
Growth (%)
60%
2007 2009
large offshore wind programs
• September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind 50%
2006
farm inaugurated in the UK Wind
40%
• France: part of the 3,000 MW tender Capacity Growth (abs.) Growth (%)
awarded to 2 consortiums in April 2012 30%
DE ES RO
(one led by EDF for 1,400 MW and one ES DE BG
IT FR PL
led by Iberdrola for 500 MW) 20% 2005 2006
2008 2009
• North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325
2007
2010
+ Biomass
MW (Belgium) under construction 10% 2009
DE PL
• Nuclear phase out in Germany should FI SE
0%
boost wind power but creates issues on 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 SE 80 NL 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
the grid
Electricity production (TWh)
Despite the solar PV growth in 2011 Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13
globally (+44%), many solar companies
went bust because of China competition A stable governmental policy is key for renewables
In 2011, renewable energy investment
development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should
rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020
(solar energy: +36%) Finance
*Bloomberg New Energy
objective achievement
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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28. Energy mix should evolve to more gas and renewables
2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011)
100%
90%
80%
Source: ENTSO-E – Capgemini analysis and estimations, EEMO13
70%
Solar + Biomass
Wind
60% Hydro
Other f ossil
Gas
50%
Lignite + Coal
Nuclear
40%
2010 mix: lef t-
hand side bar
30%
2025 mix: right-
hand side bar
20%
10%
0%
BE BG CH CZ DE ES FI FR UK HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SI SK
The energy mix evolution could result in:
• Higher costs (renewables development)
• Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels)
• Lower energy independency
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
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29. About Capgemini
With around 120,000 people in 40 countries, Capgemini is one of the world's foremost providers of
consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2011 global revenues of EUR 9.7
billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business and technology solutions that fit
their needs and drive the results they want.
A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the Collaborative
Business ExperienceTM, and draws on Rightshore ®, its worldwide delivery model.
With EUR 670 million revenue in 2011 and 8,400 dedicated consultants engaged in Utilities projects
across Europe, North & South America and Asia Pacific, Capgemini's Global Utilities Sector serves the
business consulting and information technology needs of many of the world’s largest players of this
industry.
More information is available at www.capgemini.com/energy.
Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector
Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
29