ROSKO14 - Regional carrying capacity in a small area


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  • In the demographic process we can see that decline the population as the country, as the Baranya county and Sellye micro-region, so an a similar tendence.
  • You could see the similar population process in Hungary. But we examen the age and gender rates, it seems some difference thing. Or example a higher number of children, and lower number of young people, and again higher the rate of older generation. On the next slides I present the cause of these.
  • The activity rates don’t change since 2001.
  • The number of employees increased in the region, but the national rate did not change
    The number of inactive people in the region has decreased, but the trend did not change compared to the national average
    The number of dependents is reduced, but higher than the national average
  • First I am showing the data of 2001! When only Sellye region was high, but nowadays the surrounding caught up to Sellye .
  • On this picture we can see the relation with population, working ages population, active- and unemployment population.
  • I think the figures say everything!
  • I would like present the differences between the data of country and data of the region! The differences is huge. This many appive people not produce yalue in the area, only get benefit from the state. But the benefit is limited, because case of crises too much the dependant and too few the active. But the other effect of passive status is narrowing the consumption. There are village where no shop no pub… nothing.
  • Here, you can see, in this picture again, the emloyment in the region is very low. The effect of crises in 2008 and 2009 is significant decrising.
  • But it important. That since 2001 decline the number of no scholl, and rise the number of university level!
  • This is a interesting figure. In Hungary is specific that on the disadvantaged regions are many children because of maternity aid!
  • And a sensitive figure, because you can see the rising of gypsy population. And on the previous figure I showd the high number of child. This is the case. Typically in the gypsy family are more children.
  • The reason for the decline and the backlog. No produce!
  • No produce no value!
  • You can see, what a low the average salary in the region.
  • ROSKO14 - Regional carrying capacity in a small area

    1. 1. Regional carrying capacity in a small area (Sellye micro-region) Csilla FILÓ – Péter ÁCS University of Pécs
    2. 2. Content: Characteristics of Sellye micro region • population and comparing more dimension • gender and age rates • relationship of activity types • labour market of Sellye micro region • Unemployment and rate of emloyee • rates of income and non income • education • families • gypsy population • enterprises in the region • added value • personal income • Opportunities, solutions
    3. 3. Sellye micro-region charasteristics
    4. 4. Population (Hungary, Baranya, Sellye) 1980-2011 The demographic processes: • Similar to those of the county and national average • Population decline Source: KSH Census 2011
    5. 5. Gender and age rates 2011 - A higher number of children - Lower percentage of young people - The number of older workers is higher - Less the retirement / health services? Source: KSH Census 2011
    6. 6. Activity rates 2001, 2011 The activity trends have not changed - The Sellye micro-region indicators are lower than the national and county average - The decline in employment than on differences - Dangerous the rate of inactive / all index higher than the national average Source: KSH Census 2011
    7. 7. Source: KSH Census 2011 - The number of employees increased in the region, but the national rate did not change - The number of inactive people in the region has decreased, but the trend did not change compared to the national average - The number of dependents is reduced, but higher than the national average
    8. 8. Unemployment rate in Hungary 2011 Source: KSH Census 2011 • The unemployment rate in the region was not changed • Continuous high • In the neighboring regions also increased to a high level
    9. 9. Labour-market Sellye micro-region - Half of the working age population is economically active - The crisis has increased the number of unemployed - A significant number of the low-skilled unemployed Source: KSH Census 2011
    10. 10. Labour-market Sellye micro-region Source: KSH Census 2011 • More than half of the unemployed, under- educated. • Significant the number of long-term unemployed Decline the population and the number of active, but rising number of unemployed!
    11. 11. Income – no income rate (2001, 2011) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Magyarország/Hungary 2001 Magyarország/Hungary 2011 Baranya megye/Baranya County 2001 Baranya megye/Baranya County 2011 Sellyei kistérség/Sellye micro-reg. 2001 Sellyei kistérség/Sellye micro-reg. 2011 active-passive rate passive/ no income active/ income Source: KSH Census 2011
    12. 12. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% year2001 year2002 year2003 year2004 year2005 year2006 year2007 year2008 year2009 year2010 year2011 Munkavállalók aránya / The rate of employees Hungary Baranya Sellye Source: KSH 2011
    13. 13. Education (2001, 2011) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Hungary 2001 Hungary/2011 Baranya 2001 Baranya/2011 Sellye kt. 2001 Sellye kt. 2011 Education nincs általános isk. végz./ no school 8 osztály/ elementary school szakmunkás/vocational training érettségi /high school egyetem-főisk / university Source: KSH Census 2011 • too many unskilled • too few highly skilled
    14. 14. Children in family Source: KSH Census 2011
    15. 15. Rate of Gypsy population 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Hungary 2001 Hungary 2011 Baranya 2001 Baranya 2011 Sellye 2001 Sellye 2011 rate of Gypsy population (2001, 2011) Source: KSH Census 2011 Their number has doubled in the last 10 years!
    16. 16. Number of enterprises / 1000 inhabitants Source: KSH Census 2011 • The number of enterprises is very low. • Several settlements, where there is not business. • Employment is the only state administration! • Only the center of the region is a sufficient number of companies.
    17. 17. Gross added value / person, 2011 (million HUF) Source: KSH Census 2011 • Below the national average. • Very low. • Influenced to the small number of businesses. • Unfavorable corporate structures.
    18. 18. Personal income Source: KSH Census 2011 Permanent low income level No consumption. No service sector. No self-employment.
    19. 19. Summary
    20. 20. Opportunities
    21. 21. Solution? • EDUCATION • Raising qualification level • Creative skills - development of key competencies (include: ICT) • Instead of benefit to training • Special local skills (f.e.:agricultural, turism, economic) • Adequate education for gypsy population (f.e. GANDHI method) • Vocational trainig, new vocational schools (now, 1 in the region!!!) • Foreing language learning
    22. 22. Solution? NEW RELATIONSHIPS New partnership with Croatia in EU Cross-border cooperation Duna-Drava National Parc new projects (exhibition places, ecotourism) More NGO in the region (trainig, cultural, life-style, sport) More gypsy advocacy (family education, family farming)
    23. 23. Conclusion This area’s troubles are complex: related with human resource, hygienic, informatics, environmental, production and traffic problems. The lasting solution of the problems, the sustainable development, a global approach is needed in the majority of the cases. On the one hand the increase of the qualification can not be imagined without institution developments and the population’s positive attitude, on the other hand with in terms of our gentility (Romany) politics applying positive discriminations it is necessary to create an opportunity for the numerous Gipsy populations living here to get at the trainings. The population’s involvement is indispensable to the forming of the economic development concepts, which will be able to decide upon their own fate simply by possessing knowledge and acquaintance. It is necessary to keep clear of decision mechanics in Sellye micro-region at the beginning of the XXI. century, that only leaders and experts interfere in the development and decision processes, since this area’s population has been delivered to this process continuous for half a century already. These processes have not been applied in the past 10 years. But already there were signs of the lag effect. This is the last moment. Summary, that the area's carrying capacity is very low. High external resources needed for sustainable development.
    24. 24. Thank you for your attention! Csilla FILO