Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Automotive Mg & Al: Curb weight, $ and CO2
1. Economic and Environmental Issues
in Automotive Magnesium
Applications
Carlos H. Cáceres
School of Engineering
The University of Queensland
Brisbane, Qld. Australia
Invited Lecture to ICAA-10 Vancouver, October 2006
Metall. Mater. Mater. Trans. A38,(2007) 1649-1662
Metall. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662. 1/42
2. What drives the current interest in Al and
Mg automotive applications?
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 2/42
3. l/100 km
Gasoline
vehicles
Diesel
vehicles
Weight
Using Al and Mg lightens up the car and
cuts gasoline consumption and emissions.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 3/42
http://www.innovaltec.com/iom3_dt/scamans_cans_to_lowco2_cars.pdf
4. Issues Regarding Automotive Applications
• What is the cost penalty of using Al and Mg in
cars?
• Is the cost penalty related to the mechanical
function?
• Is the gasoline saved by a lighter car enough to
off-set the cost penalty of using light alloys?
• Does the gasoline saved by a lighter car off-set
the environmental burden of producing Al and
Mg?
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 4/42
5. Light Alloy substitutions for
Cast Iron and Steel in cars
• Same volume (Castings): Engine blocks, Valve covers
• Stiff Beams (bending): Steering wheels, Space frames
• Stiff Panels (bending) : Instrument panels, Door panels
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 5/42
6. Approach
Material Indices and Exchange
Constants
MF Ashby et al. 1992, 1996, 1999, 2003
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 6/42
7. Material Indices for Minimum Mass
Function Index
Same Volume
1/ρ
minimise mass (castings)
E1/2/ρ
Beam (bending)
minimise mass for given
Panel (bending)
stiffness E1/3 / ρ
Minimise Select a material that maximises
mass? this Material Index !
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 7/42
8. How good are Al and Mg when it comes
to reducing mass?
A 10 kgf component made of Steel…
ρ Equal
Beam Panel
E
Volume
(GPa) (Mg/m3) E1 / 2 E1 / 3 1
ρ ρ ρ
Steel 210 7.8 10 10 10
Al 75 2.7 5.9 4.9 3.5
Mg 44 1.7 5.1 3.9 2.2
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 8/42
9. Material Indices for Minimum Cost?
Material Indices for Minimum Mass
cost [c ] = $/kg
Function Index
Same Volume
minimise cost per unit vol
1/c ρ
(castings)
E1/2/c ρ
Beam (bending)
minimise cost for given stiffness
E1/3/c ρ
Panel (bending)
Use a material that maximises
Want to minimise
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) Material Index !
this 1649-1662
cost? 9/42
10. Designing with conflicting goals
cheap car (Iron and Steel: cheap but heavy)
Conflicting
light car (Al, Mg: light but expensive)
Goals
Use trade-off plot
(Ashby)
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 10/42
11. Plot all viable materials according to
Trade-off plot their material indices
expensive
ρc/E 1/2
Cost
for given
What is the meaning of α ?
stiffness
Materials substitution:
join candidates by a Mg
Z1
linear function
Fe
P2
(cost)
B
A
Slope α = exchange constant
α heavier
α is the cost penalty of substituting P1 (mass)
material B for A ($/kg) Mass
1/2
ρ/E for given
stiffness
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 11/42
Paretto, 1906; Ashby, 2005
12. Trade-off plot on log scales
Log scales
Linear scales
A
A
P2
P2
(cost)
(cost) B
B
P1 (mass)
P1 (mass)
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 12/42
13. How much does it cost to put Mg or Al in a car ?
•Cast Iron: about $0.5 US/kg
•Steel: about $0.8 US/kg
•Aluminium: about $2.5 US/kg
•Magnesium: about $3.4 US/kg
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 13/42
14. http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
How much does it cost to drive a car ?
U.S. Gasoline Fuel Price, September 2005
1 gallon = 3.78 lg => @ 3.1 $ per gallon => 0.8 $ per liter
$US per
gallon
2003
month-year
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 14/42
15. Curb weight and fuel economy
How much gasoline can we save per kg of mass reduction?
1 kg mass reduction, over 200 000 km vehicle life
Johnson, 2002 ; IPAI, 2000
litres of
gasoline
Driver’s (10 years) savings = 7 lg/kg = 6 $/kg
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 15/42
16. What are the incentives for substituting
Al or Mg for steel in automobiles?
If a manufacturer does not meet the Corporate
Average Fuel Economy [C.A.F.E.] standard, it is
liable for a civil penalty of $5 for each 0.1 mpg (40
m/l) its fleet falls below the standard of 22.2 mpg
(9.4 km/l) (as of 2007).
CAFE Penalty: 0.5 $/kg
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 16/42
17. When is a material substitution worth doing?
If the substitution costs
you more than this, it is
not worth doing
Manufacturer's upper bound: 0.5 $/kg (CAFE penalty)
Driver’s upper bound: 7 lg/kg = 6 $/kg (Driver's savings)
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 17/42
18. Possible substitutions (1)
•Incumbent materials: Cast Iron and Steel
Replaced by
•Aluminium alloys
•Magnesium alloys
Possible substitutions (2)
•Incumbent materials: Aluminium alloys
•Replaced by Magnesium alloys
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 18/42
19. The cost penalty of Al or Mg Beams substitutions for steel
Material
ρ/E1/2 (Mg m-3 GPa-1/2)
Cost This is what a lighter
0.1 1
for given 100 vehicle will save you
stiffness (upper bounds)
CAFE:
α < 0.5 $/kg
ρc/E1/2 10
Driver's savings
α < 6 $/kg
cost relative to steel beams
α AlMg = 9.9 $/kg
ρc/E1/2 (103 $ m-3 GPa-1/2)
10
αAM = 7.6
α FeMg = 2.4 $/kg
αFM = 2.4 AZ91
α FeAl= 1.2 $/kg 1
A356
αFA = 1.2 Steel Cast Fe
1
This is what it costs you to
lighten up your vehicle ($/kg)
0.1
Mass
for given
beams
0.1 stiffness
2
0.1 1
ρ/E1/2
mass relative to steel beams
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 19/42
20. Cost of Mg and Al Castings substitutions for cast iron
ρ (Mg m-3)
1 10
100
Cost
per m3
100
cost relative to cast iron
10
ρc (103 $ m-3)
α FeMg= 0.7 $/kg
αFM = 0.7 10
AZ91 Steel
α FeAl= 0.6 $/kg A356
Cast Fe
αFA = 0.6
1
1
αAM = 1.3
volume
0.1
density
2 20/42
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662
0.1 1
mass relative to cast iron
21. Cost analysis Substitutions below this
line are OK for Driver's
Al=>Mg
Driver's savings
savings
10 Beam Al-Mg
6 $/kg
lifespan savings (6$/kg)
Panel Al-Mg
Fe=>Mg
α ($/kg)
Beam Fe-Mg
($/kg) Fe=>Al
α
Cast Al-Mg
Beam Fe-Al
Panel Fe-Mg
1
Cast Fe-Mg
CAFE penalty (0.5$/kg)
Panel Fe-Al
Cast Fe-Al
CAFE 0.3
penalty
Substitutions below this
0.5 $/kg
line are OK for CAFE
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 21/42
22. How about environmental
(greenhouse gas, CO2)
effects?
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 22/42
23. Define: h = CO2 footprint: kg of CO2 per kg of alloy
material h (kg of CO2 / kg)
Iron/Steel 1 ~ 2 kg/kg
Al ~12 kg/kg
(45% hydro electricity, 55% fossil world
avge.)
Electrolytic Mg (30% ~23 kg/kg
of world production) (45% hydro electricity, 55% fossil world
avge.)
Pidgeon Mg (70% of
~42 kg/kg
world production)
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 23/42
Sources: IPAI (2000); Koltun et al. 2005; CES, 2006
24. Material Indices to minimise CO2 creation?
CO2 footprint equivalent [hq ] = lg/kg
Function Index
minimise CO2 per unit vol 1/ ρ hq
Same Volume
(castings)
E1/2/ρhq
minimise CO2 footprint for Beam (bending)
given stiffness E1/3/ρ hq
Panel (bending)
Maximise
these !
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 24/42
25. Gasoline equivalent to the CO2 footprint ?
Cars create ~ 2.85 kg of CO2 per litre of gasoline
hq = (equivalent) litres of gasoline
burnt producing 1 kg of alloy
Define: hq = (h / 2.85) lg/kg
β = exchange constants involving CO2
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 25/42
26. Gasoline equivalent to the CO2 footprint ?
A lighter vehicle saves 7 lg/kg over 200x103 km
material hq
Iron/Steel ~ 0.5 lg/kg
Al ~ 4 lg/kg
Electrolytic Mg ~ 8 lg/kg
Pidgeon Mg ~ 15 lg/kg
Sources: IPAI (2000); Koltun et al. 2005; CES, 2006
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 26/42
27. CO2 creation: exchange constants for Same
Volume substitutions (castings)
hqρ
CO2
This is what a lighter vehicle
footprint
saves (per kg) over 2x105 km
Driver's savings
Pidgeon Mg
β = 7 lg/kg
Electrolytic Mg
Al
gasoline burnt producing
the materials to achieve
one kg of mass reduction mass
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662
ρ 27/42
28. Electrolytic Mg substitutions for
CO2 creation analysis Al are viable for castings.
Pidgeon Mg is out of bounds.
Al=>Mg
Pidgeon Mg’s
Substitutions below CO2-footprint is
the line are OK excessive for
beams and Beam*
Panel*
panels, OK for
30
castings
Beam
Cast*
Beam*
Driver's Panel
10
savings
7 lg/kg βCO2
Panel*
Beam
(7 lg /kg)
Cast*
Beam Panel
Cast
(lg/kg)
Fe=>Mg*
Panel
Cast
β
Cast
Fe=>Mg
Al substitutions
for Fe are OK
1
Fe<Al Fe<Mg Fe<Mg* Al<Mg*
Al<Mg
Fe=>Al
CAFE liability Electrolytic Mg substitutions
for Fe: castings & panels
(0.6 lg /kg)
OK beams are off
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 28/42
29. Simultaneous selection by Cost and CO2 footprint
Distance to
break-even distance, dα (x103 km)
break-even
10 100
(x103 km)
β (lg/kg)
Aluminum replaced
by Pidgeon Mg
1000
break-even distance, dβ (x103 km)
Iron and steel
replaced by
Pidgeon Mg 200x103 km
β (lg/kg)
Iron and steel
replaced by Mg
10
βCO2
Iron and steel
replaced by Al
(7 lg /kg) Aluminum
replaced by Mg
100
Driver's
savings
(7lg/kg)
Substitutions inside
the box are OK
α ($/kg)
30
1
CAFE liability
(0.5$/kg) 1 10
αCAFE (0.5 substitutions are economically not viable. αS (6 $/kg)
α ($/kg)
•Only two $/kg)
Driver's
Metall. 14 substitutions are environmentally1649-1662
• 8 out of Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) not viable 29/42
savings (6
(primary alloys).
$/kg)
30. Analysis so far assumed primary alloys
Effect of recycling ?
• Recycling Al or Mg uses only about 5%
of the energy required to produce
primary metal.
• The exchange constants decrease in
proportion to the recycled fraction.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 30/42
31. Effect of recycling (post-consumers scrap)
• Al and Mg wrought alloys are nearly 100% refined
metal. (Al: up to 8% is recycled metal)
• Al castings: as much as 60% is recycled metal.
• Diecast Mg : up to 20~ 35% is recycled metal.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 31/42
32. Effect of recycling on the driving distances
to break even?
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 32/42
33. Driving distances to break even
A cast Fe engine replaced by an Al or Mg engine
Primary electrolytic Mg An engine block cast on a
=> 70x103 km primary Al alloy (A356)
Primary Pidgeon Mg requires 55x103 km to
break-even
=> 130x103 km
Cast on alloy A319 (60%
recycled) cuts the driving
With 35% recycled Mg:
Electrolytic Mg => 35x103 km ~10x103 km
distance to
Pidgeon Mg => 75x103 km
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 33/42
34. Driving distance to break even for Al
or Mg space frames replacing steel
An extruded Al beam
A rolled Al panel requires
requires 130x103 km
75x103 km to break-even
to break-even
An extruded
electrolytic Mg beam
A rolled electrolytic Mg panel requires 210x103 km
requires 125x103 km to to break-even
break-even
Wrought alloys are made of primary stock (Al: ~8%
max old scrap), little benefit from recycling.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 34/42
35. Magnesium steering wheel replacing a
steel steering wheel
At 35% recycling rate
electrolytic Mg requires
A steering wheel of primary
~130x103 km electrolytic Mg alloy requires
210x103 km to break-even
At 35% recycling rate A steering wheel of primary
Pidgeon Mg requires Pidgeon Mg alloy requires
~260x103 km 390x103 km to break-even
Tzabari and Reich, 2000
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 35/42
36. Al engine replaced by a Mg engine?
Primary electrolytic Mg
=> 323x103 km
Al engine block cast on
Primary Pidgeon Mg
alloy A319 (60% recycled)
=> 724x103 km
Mg is not a good
replacement for existing
With 35% recycled metal:
cast Al components
electrolytic Mg => 160x103 km
Pidgeon Mg => 430x103 km
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 36/42
37. Are current cars any lighter than back in 1970?
Light trucks & USV
cars
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 37/42
38. Conclusions
• Cost and environmental penalties of light
alloy applications strongly depend on the
mechanical function.
• Penalty in decreasing order: castings, panels,
beams.
• The cost penalty can be off-set by the savings
of gasoline in most cases.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 38/42
39. CO2 - creation
• The high recyclability of Al casting alloys
gives them a leading edge over both Al and
Mg wrought alloys and Mg casting alloys.
• Pidgeon Mg is environmentally unsuitable
for most automotive applications.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 39/42
40. CO2-footprint according to the source of energy
(Al and electrolytic Mg)
Energy 100% 55% fossil fuels 100% fossil
source hydro 45% hydro/ fuels
/nuclear nuclear
Al 6.2 12 16.7
Mg
7.5 20 30
(no SF6)
Mg
10.6 23 33.1
(with
SF6)
present analysis
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 40/42
41. Magnesium’s safest bet?
• E.U. imposing a tax on CO2 footprint should
mark the end of Pidgeon Mg.
• Increased use of Hydro (or Nuclear Power)
electricity to reduce Mg’s (and Al’s) CO2
footprint.
• Increasing the recycling rate of Mg castings.
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 41/42
44. Titanium
β FeTi = 28 lg/kg
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 44/42
45. CO2-footprint according to the source of energy
Al and electrolytic Mg
present analysis: ~55%
100% fossil fuels
fossil fuels
Clean sources of energy are
100% hydro/nuclear/other
essential
for clean Mg or Al
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 45/42
renewables
46. Green: α-values of the order of the CAFE liability
Blue: within the savings over a Driver's of 2x105 km
Red: economically or environmentally not viable
Brackets: distance to break even
Metrics Gasoline equivalent footprint
Cost penalty
(lg/kg) primary alloys
($/kg)
αFA αFM αAM
Function βFA βFM β*FM βAM β*AM
Beam 1.2 2.2 9.9 4.6 7.4 13.6 25 76
(40) (73) (330) (132) (212) (389)* (715) (2200)
*
Panel 0.5 1.1 4.6 2.6 4.4 8.8 12 40
(17) (37) (153) (74) (126) (252)* (343) (1144)
*
Casting 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.3 4.7 3.8 18
(13) (20) (43) (54) (66) (134)* (109) (514)*
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 46/42
47. Critical Recycling Rates to make
the exchange constants = 0 ?
At these recycling rates Al and
Mg create the same amount of
CO2/kg as Fe
volume panels beams
Al 82% 69% 75%
Mg 87% 82% 87%
Mg* 95% 93% 96%
Pidgeon Mg
~95%! 47/42
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662
48. Finding α: Ashby, 2005
Exchange Constants for Transport Systems
α ($US per kg)
Transport System: mass saving
Family car (based on C.A.F.E. penalty) ~0.5
Family car (based on Driver's savings) ~6
Truck (based on payload) 5 to 20
Civil aircraft (based on payload) 100 to 500
Space vehicle (based on payload) 3000 to 10000
Metall. Mater. Trans. A 38, (2007) 1649-1662 48/42