The document provides biographical information about Brian Butler, an international finance and economics professor and guest lecturer. It outlines his educational and professional background working in finance, economics, and global trade. It also lists his upcoming lecture schedule, which includes trips to Greece, Rhodes, and an exam. Details are provided about an upcoming team project and readings assigned to students.

1. Class #9 Milan 2 nd class

2. Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad. Guest lecturer with the IQS Business School of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the Catholic University of Milan . Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at Thunderbird’s Global MBA program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the Columbia Business School in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes at the university Faculdade Boa Viagem . A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America. [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler

3. Brian Butler is a specialist in international economic analysis, and is founder of the prestigious “GloboTrends“ ( www.globotrends.com ) online economics site, which has been featured as syndicated content on Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor, Emerginvest.com, Business Week Exchange, Wikinvest.com, and other leading news outlets. http:// globotrends.pbworks.com / , http:// blog.globotrends.com /

8. “ P.I.I.G.S” Economist.com, A special report on the euro area, One size fits none, Jun 11th 2009

9. http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16003661&source=most_commented

11. Italy + debt – Similarity to Greece http://thegovmonitor.com/world_news/united_states/greece-italy-and-europes-sovereign-debt-crisis-28846.html

18. What do these have in common?... Greece rolling over its debts EU banks borrowing from ECB Lehman Bros failure Investment Banking business model

20. 0 3 6 9 12 months… Keep tapping short term borrowing (debt) markets, again and again. Works if… you can borrow at low rates AGAIN in the future … ..

22. http://bloomberg.com

24. Credit Crunch = Result Assumes that short term markets will continue being LIQUID (will keep spinning, full of flowing cash) But, what happens if short term markets freeze up? This is what happened after Lehman Bros. failed (and almost happened again with Greece)…

25. Borrow LOW – Lend HIGH * rates Borrow LEND 1% 5% “ Carry Trade” - Make money on ‘spread’ Works well unless…

26. Borrow LOW – Lend HIGH * rates Borrow LEND 1% 5% LOSS!! What if borrow is also = short term , and what if the rates suddenly go UP?!?! 10%

27. But, how do you measure the health of the short-term credit markets? What indicators should you watch? Libor, OIS-spread, Credit Default Swaps

28. SPREAD Source: NY Times “Euro burdons some nations”, Jan 2009

30. Yield spread vs. Germany http://bloomberg.com

31. IMF involved … why?

34. The “bad-guy” we need Greeks to hate * Better than being angry at Germany!

36. Does the world need the IMF to be the “bad guy” in Europe? How about in SE Asia?

40. Competitive Devaluations Dr. Kishore Dash, January 20, 2007 Beggar thy neighbor

54. Demographics & the Debt By 2050; a third of the rich world’s population will be over 60 “ The demographic bill is likely to be (10x) ten times bigger than the fiscal cost of the financial crisis.” The Economist, June 2009

55. International IQ moment What is happening in Greece? - discussion

56. Athens Greece Athens Greece – at the heart of a European Crisis?

58. Important notes Upcoming schedule