Thoughts On Developing Plans For Full Range Of Potential COVID-19 Impact On Your Business

1. Gillum Strategy Partners
V I E W P O I N T
Business Scenario Planning
Developing Plans For Full Range Of Potential
COVID-19 Impact On Your Business

2. Gillum Strategy Partners | V I E W P O I N T | Page 1 | www.gillumstrategy.com
V I E W P O I N T
Business Scenario Planning
Developing Plans For Full Range Of Potential
COVID-19 Impact On Your Business
COVID-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic is creating a
humanitarian crisis of extremely large
proportion. In conjunction, businesses
are being significantly impacted and will
need to plan adeptly to manage through
the challenging and rapidly evolving
environment.
Scenario Planning
The plan that each company had in place
as we entered 2020 is no longer valid. In
addition, each company’s market
dynamics are changing over time. As
such, we have been working with clients
on planning to support a wide range of
scenarios, with a keen focus on
preserving cash, optimizing cash flow,
maximizing optionality, and setting
definitive trigger points with action plans if
/ when that trigger point is reached. The
process we suggest is outlined below.
Step 1. Develop Range Of Business
Scenarios Arising From COVID-19
Impact
Conduct session with management team
to frame full range of potential business
impact scenarios arising from COVID-19
pandemic. Define each scenario and
tie to internal and / or external metrics
that can be monitored. In defining
each scenario, be clear on what
segments and / or geographies are
impacted, how they are impacted over
an estimated time period and to what
degree.
Once the full set of scenarios have
been built, develop estimates on
probability for each based on latest
information. These scenarios and
probabilities can and will likely be
adusted over time as the situation
evolves.
Step 2. Develop Baseline Financial
Model
Build an excel based linked baseline
profit statement, balance sheet and
cash flow projection tool – in weekly
buckets if highly levered or in monthly
buckets if not. Structure model to
reflect all the permutations of the
segments and geographies that
comprise the business, and ensure it
aligns to how the business currently
reports its financial results for quick
comparisons and variance analysis
going forward.
SScceennaarriioo
PPllaannnniinngg::
A well thought
out plan for the
range of
potential business
impact scenarios
arising from
COVID-19
enables quick
decision making,
cash
preservation, and
the ability to
emerge from
likely market
downturn in a
strong position

3. Gillum Strategy Partners | V I E W P O I N T | Page 2 | www.gillumstrategy.com
V I E W P O I N T
Business Scenario Planning
Developing Plans For Full Range Of Potential
COVID-19 Impact On Your Business
Step 3. Model Impact Of Each Scenario
Use scenario descriptions to determine
variables which need to be incorporated in
model. Build these variables into model in
a way that will enable continued refinement
in the future with the impact flowing
through the model.
In this model, have a summary tab with
scenarios in one column and the key
adjustable variables in subsequent
columns which allow comparisons and
quick refinements across scenarios, with
resultant key financial projections in
subsequent columns for each scenario.
This will help users understand sensitivities
and likelihood.
Review model drafts with executive team
when built to pressure test, and refine
based on learnings.
Step 4. Based On Modeled Impact,
Determine Decision Trigger Points
Based on modeled financial impact by
scenario over time, determine decision
trigger points when the company would
want to take certain actions like taking
additional cost out, idling plants, reducing
replenishment orders / quantities,
resetting safety stocks, etc.
Step 5. Build Action Plans For Each
Trigger Point
For each trigger point, build action plan
for task, deliverable, owner, time to
complete task. Review action plans
with management team and owners for
input. Refine and firm up action plans.
Step 6. Stand Up Program
Management Office To Monitor &
Refine Plan & Model
Set up a team to maintain model and
action plans, and refine based on new
information and evolution of the
business situation. Refine probabilities,
degree of impact, timing of impact,
probabilities and key assumptions in
model on a weekly basis. If new
potential scenarios develop,
characterize them in the model and
build / refine associated trigger points
and action plans as needed. Report out
and discuss scenario impact on
financials with management team on a
weekly basis. Alert management team
on trending and anticipated timing of
any trigger point being reached.

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V I E W P O I N T
Business Scenario Planning
Developing Plans For Full Range Of Potential
COVID-19 Impact On Your Business
The Clement Group (CG) is a boutique strategic consulting firm based in
Chicago, providing services to top tier clients in a broad base of industries, including
technology, manufacturing and services. CG’s areas of expertise include go-to-market
strategies, marketing effectiveness, channel and alliance management, growth
strategies, sales productivity and operational improvement. We emphasize pragmatic
solutions with measurable results and often work with our clients through
implementation.
Locations:
Chicago
211 East Ontario St.
Suite 1600
Chicago, IL 60611
312.670.8940
Phoenix
P.O. Box 3814
Carefree, AZ 85377
480.595.8708
Contact:
Brad Gillum
Managing Partner
312.961.1441
brad.gillum@theclementgroup.com
© 2008, The Clement Group, LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced in any form
without written permission from the copyright holder. The Clement Group 2008.
Gillum Strategy Partners (GSP) is a boutique strategic consulting firm,
providing services to top tier clients in a broad base of industries, including
technology, manufacturing and services. GSP’s areas of expertise include go-
to-market strategies, marketing effectiveness, channel and alliance
management, growth strategies, sales productivity and operational
improvement. We emphasize pragmatic solutions with measurable results
and often work with our clients through implementation.
Address:
155 North Wacker Drive
Suite 4250
Chicago, IL 60606
Contact:
Brad Gillum
Managing Partner
312.961.1441
brad.gillum@gillumstrategy.com