Ms. Anna Reid Jhirad Worcester, MA Princeton, NJ Dr. John Campbell Dr. James J. Hughes Dr. Burke Zimmerman Professor of Molecular Biology Professor of Medicine and Director Professor of Chemical Engineering University of California, San Diego Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies University of Texas at Austin La Jolla, CA Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University Austin, TX Princeton, NJ PRODUCERS AND AFFILIATES Mr. Jon Palfreman Ms. Barbara Moran Mr. Kirk Citron President Producer Consultant Palfreman Film Group Palf

2. The Foundation Board of Trustees
Walter Kistler Bob Citron
Trustee and President Trustee and Executive Director
Sesh Velamoor Donna Hines Milt Woods
Trustee and Deputy Director Trustee and Deputy Director Trustee
The Foundation Board of Advisors
Dr. George Bugliarello Dr. Brian Fagan
Polytechnic University University of California, Santa Barbara
Dr. William H. Calvin Barbara Marx Hubbard
University of Washington Foundation for Conscious Evolution
Dr. Eric J. Chaisson Dr. Donald Johanson
Tufts University Institute of Human Origins
Dr. Clement C. P. Chang Dr. Michio Kaku
Tamkang University City University of New York
Joseph Coates Graham T. T. Molitor
Consulting Futurist, Inc. Public Policy Forecasting, Inc.
Dr. Christian de Duve Dr. Robert Muller
Institute of Cellular Pathology University for Peace
Dr. Ricardo Diez-Hochleitner Dr. Edward O. Wilson
Club of Rome Harvard University
123 105th Avenue SE
Bellevue, WA USA 98004
Tel: (425) 451-1333 Fax: (425) 451-1238
Email: info@futurefoundation.org
Website: www.futurefoundation.org
ISBN 0-9677252-7-5
1. Future – humanity. 2. Millennium – Year 3000. 3. Human species – futurology. I. Title.
© 2003 Foundation For the Future
The comments and deliberations of all participants are deemed very important by the Foundation For the Future. While every attempt has
been made to preserve the accuracy of dialogue in the workshop sessions, it is impossible to guarantee that no errors or omissions were
made in the course of transcribing and editing the live-session tape recordings. All participants were afforded the opportunity prior to publi-
cation to review and amend their comments recorded in this document.
The Foundation advocates no causes or positions. Its goal in publishing the Proceedings of the workshop is to encourage human minds to
ponder issues that may shape humanity’s future.
A printed copy of this publication is available at cost from the Foundation For the Future. Contact the Foundation for details.

3. May 2003
Dear Readers:
What will being human mean a thousand years from now? Will humans be inseparably
blended with technology? What will be the impact of genetic engineering? Will further
speciation occur? In November 2002, the Foundation For the Future brought together
nine scholars whose backgrounds and expertise ranged from molecular biology and
biochemistry to sociology and studies of the future. With this base of knowledge, the
gathering of scholars addressed these and related questions concerning “The Future
Human.” This book documents their discussions.
The Foundation For the Future has, since its inception, been focused on research into
the factors that will impact the long-term future of humanity. One of its current major
programs is planning for a four-part television series entitled The Next Thousand Years.
“The Future Human” is one of the programs envisioned for this series, and fleshing
out content for the program was the main purpose of the workshop.
This book is a record of the November 2002 workshop. I hope you will enjoy reading
these discussions about how future humans may change in the centuries and
millennium unfolding before us.
Sincerely,
Walter P. Kistler
President and Benefactor

5. Acknowledgments
The Foundation For the Future wishes to acknowledge The staff of the Foundation For the Future, for their
the following persons for making “The Future Human” dedication and commitment to ensure that event plan-
Workshop a success: ning resulted in a memorable experience for all
involved: Carol Johnson, Programs and Finance
The participants in “The Future Human” Workshop,
Administration; Kathy Carr, Special Programs Man-
whose broad scientific backgrounds and well-informed
ager; Tom Price, Executive Assistant; Jeff Holdsworth,
perspectives were the backbone of the workshop and
Creative Director; and Jean Gilbertson, PR and Publica-
whose contributions will be valuable well into the
tions Manager.
future: W. French Anderson, Athena Andreadis, John
Campbell, Joseph Coates, Gregory Fowler, James J. David Rapka, for capturing the entire workshop on vid-
Hughes, Gregory Stock, Jeffry Stock, and Burke Zim- eotape.
merman. Bill Wright, for extensive photographic coverage.
Palfreman Film Group, for developing the preliminary Sherry Anderson, for proofing the Proceedings.
outline of “The Future Human” television program and
engaging in searching dialogue with the scholars about The Trustees and Executive Director of the Foundation,
the future of humanity: Jon Palfreman, President of Pal- for reposing their patience, trust, and confidence in all
freman Film Group and Executive Producer of The Next of us.
Thousand Years television series, and Barbara Moran,
Producer for Palfreman Film Group.
Sesh Velamoor Donna Hines
Kirk Citron, for his key role in concept development for Deputy Director, Programs Deputy Director, Administration
The Next Thousand Years television series.
Anna Reid Jhirad, Proposal Writer and Funding Con-
sultant, for fundraising.
i

6. ii Acknowledgments

7. Introduction
“The Future Human” Workshop was convened to focus changing humans in yet-unforeseen ways through
on the scientific content of a one-hour television pro- advances in genetics and germline engineering, cloning,
gram also entitled “The Future Human,”which is one of nanotechnology, and other scientific and technological
six programs planned in the Foundation For the Future’s developments.
first television series, The Next Thousand Years. In November 2002, the Foundation brought together
The television series grew out of the Foundation’s ongo- nine scholars to discuss these advances and how they
ing Humanity 3000 program, which regularly convenes might shape humanity in the coming centuries and mil-
seminars, workshops, and symposia to address the lennium. Their conversations were intended to provide
question: Where does humanity go from here? a basis of information for producers from Palfreman
The objectives of the television series are to help an Film Group in the development of content and images
informed public engage with the drivers of change, to for “The Future Human” program.
understand the wild cards that threaten humanity’s sur- In this television series, as in all its activities, the
vival, to explore the moral and ethical issues surround- Foundation For the Future endeavors to fulfill its mis-
ing the choices we make, and to examine our ability— sion to increase and diffuse knowledge concerning the
and responsibility—to manage the future of our species. long-term future of humanity.
Focused specifically on the evolution of the human
species, “The Future Human” evaluates the potential for
iii

8. iv Introduction

9. Table of Contents
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
The Proceedings Sections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
List of Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Section I Workshop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Section II Theme Quotations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Section III Scholar Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Section IV “The Future Human” Preliminary Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Section V Transcripts of the Workshop Discussion Sessions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
V.A Introductory Session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
V.B Review of Preliminary Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
V.C Discussion of Major Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Guidelines
V.C.1 Major Issues Session I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
One Generation (25 Years)
V.C.2 Major Issues Session II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Ten Generations (250 Years)
V.C.3 Major Issues Session III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Forty Generations (One Thousand Years)
V.D Revisiting the Preliminary Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
V.E Closing Session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
v

10. vi Table of Contents
Appendix I Workshop Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Appendix II The Next Thousand Years Project Background Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Appendix III Scholar Biographies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Appendix IV Producer and Affiliate Biographies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Appendix V Selected Bibliographies of Participating Scholars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Appendix VI Selected Articles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193

11. The Proceedings Sections
Summarized below are the contents of each Section and Appendix I is the Workshop Agenda, noting key activi-
Appendix of the Proceedings of “The Future Human” ties from the opening reception to closing remarks.
Workshop.
Appendix II, The Next Thousand Years Project Back-
Section I summarizes “The Future Human” Workshop, ground Notes, describes the television series project
providing an abstract and details on background and overall as well as the planned Educational Outreach
purposes, participant selection process, venue, work- program.
shop design, description of the workshop process, and Appendix III provides biographical information on the
key outcomes. scholars who participated in “The Future Human”
Section II contains four quotations that formed a the- Workshop.
matic framework for the workshop. Appendix IV is biographical information on producers
Section III provides transcripts of five-minute inter- and affiliates who participated in “The Future Human”
views in which each of the nine workshop scholars Workshop.
addressed the question: What is your vision of the thou- Appendix V provides selected bibliographies of work-
sand-year evolution of our species? shop scholar participants.
Section IV is the preliminary outline for “The Future Appendix VI lists titles of background articles available
Human” program, developed by Jon Palfreman, Execu- on the Foundation’s website.
tive Producer of The Next Thousand Years television
series.
Section V provides the transcripts of the discussion ses-
sions conducted over the two days of the workshop.
vii

12. viii The Proceedings Sections

13. List of Participants
SCHOLARS
Dr. W. French Anderson Mr. Joseph Coates Dr. Gregory Stock
Professor, Keck School of Medicine President Director, Program on Medicine, Technology,
University of Southern California Consulting Futurist, Inc. and Society
Los Angeles, CA Washington, DC School of Public Health, UCLA
Los Angeles, CA
Dr. Athena Andreadis Dr. Gregory Fowler Dr. Jeffry Stock
Associate Director of Research Executive Director Professor of Molecular Biology
Neurobiology of Developmental Disorders Geneforum Princeton University
The Shriver Center, Univ. of Massachusetts Lake Oswego, OR Princeton, NJ
Waltham, MA
Dr. John Campbell Dr. James J. Hughes Dr. Burke Zimmerman
Professor of Neurobiology Associate Editor President
University of California Journal of Evolution and Technology BKZ Inc.
Los Angeles, CA Teacher, Public Policy Studies, Trinity College Oakland, CA
Hartford, CT
ix

14. x List of Participants
PRODUCERS AFFILIATES
Jon Palfreman Kirk Citron
Executive Producer, The Next Thousand Years Chief Strategic Officer
President, Palfreman Film Group AKQA
Lowell, MA San Francisco, CA
Barbara Moran Anna Reid Jhirad
Producer Proposal Writer and Funding Consultant
Palfreman Film Group The Next Thousand Years
Lowell, MA Producer, Marigold Productions
Washington, DC

15. Section I
Workshop Summary
ABSTRACT The purpose of the series is to help an informed pub-
This summary provides an overview of the Foundation lic engage with the drivers of change, to understand the
For the Future’s workshop on “The Future Human,” wild cards that threaten humanity’s survival, to explore
held in November 2002 at the Foundation offices in the moral and ethical issues surrounding choices we
Bellevue, WA. “The Future Human” is the anticipated make, and to examine our ability—and responsibility—
title of Program No. 5 of the Foundation’s six-part tele- to manage the future of our species. So far, 75 scientists,
vision series, The Next Thousand Years. social scientists, futurists, and other scholars from vari-
ous parts of the world have agreed to participate in the
development of The Next Thousand Years series.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE SERIES The Foundation convened in April 2002 the first Pro-
The Foundation For the Future’s first major television ducers Workshop to enable scholars and television doc-
series, The Next Thousand Years , is an outgrowth of umentary producers to discuss the envisioned content
Humanity 3000, an international seminar and sympo- and how to create effective television programs about it.
sium series created by the Foundation in 1998. Human- With that input, along with suggestions of numerous
ity 3000 brings together some of the most prominent scholars who reviewed the early drafts of program
thinkers on our planet each year to discuss and debate sketches, the Foundation restructured the series from
the critical factors that may have the most significant eight episodes to six one-hour programs, which are
impact on the long-term future of humanity. Some 150 expected to air in 2006.
scholars from around the world have participated in
these seminars, workshops, and symposia. PURPOSES OF THE WORKSHOP
In the process of reviewing the videotaped conversa-
tions of the Humanity 3000 participants, it became evi- The workshop convened by the Foundation in Novem-
dent that the scholars’ ideas and their views of the ber 2002 was focused specifically on the content of Pro-
thousand-year future of humanity would make an excit- gram No. 5, “The Future Human.” Nine experts in the
ing, educational, science-based television series. sciences and futures studies were brought together and
Advances in scientific fields as varied as genetics, cos- asked to discuss, based on their research, what humans
mology, medicine, nanotechnology, robotics, biology, are likely to become in the upcoming centuries. The
and ecology continue to push back the frontiers of Foundation’s objective was to enable the series Execu-
knowledge. These advances are allowing humankind to tive Producer to learn from the discussions and to have
project trends and speculate about the future with a the opportunity to question the scholars at length about
greater degree of confidence than ever before. Starting specific scientific and technological advances, and the
with an informative grounding in the latest relevant possible impacts to humanity of those advances. The
developments in various scientific fields, the programs expected outcome of the meeting was that the Executive
in the series will present a rational approach to examin- Producer would obtain the material required to develop
ing the various alternative futures that might be possible. the content for the program.
1

16. 2 Section I • Workshop Summary
PARTICIPANT SELECTION PROCESS KEY OUTCOMES
Scholars were selected for participation in “The Future By consensus of the participants, the discussions were
Human” workshop based on a high level of expertise in directed into three divisions: one generation (the next
scientific fields related to genetics, germline engineer- 25 years), ten generations (the next 250 years), and 40
ing, medical science, biochemistry, neuroscience, and generations (the next thousand years).
critical technologies that have bearing on the long-term The one-generation discussion was led by W. French
future of humanity. The daily work of the invited schol- Anderson, M.D., Director of the Gene Therapy Labora-
ars focuses on cutting-edge scientific research and tories at the University of Southern California Keck
uniquely qualifies them to discuss how humans may School of Medicine. Among many concrete outcomes
evolve in the next thousand years as our species begins identified for the next generation were the use of genetic
to defy its biological limits. medicine to treat or cure most major diseases, the
extension of human life-expectancy to 100 years, utili-
WORKSHOP DESIGN zation of nanotechnology sensors, and availability of
numerous artificial organs (heart, liver, pancreas, but
Except for the cocktail reception held on Friday evening not brain).
before the workshop commenced on Saturday, the Dr. Gregory Stock, Director of the Program on Med-
entire meeting took place in the Foundation For the icine, Technology, and Society at UCLA’s School of Pub-
Future offices. All sessions of the workshop were ple- lic Health, led the discussion focused on the next 250
nary sessions. The participants, including scholars, pro- years. Anticipated improvements in ten generations’
ducers, Foundation officers, and affiliates, were seated time include increasing diversity in the human genome
together in two circles around a conference table. Sev- as different groups pursue diverse visions of what the
eral observers also attended portions of the event. future should be, body enhancements for such attri-
Sesh Velamoor, Foundation Deputy Director in butes as world-class musicianship and for extra-human
charge of Programs, facilitated the workshop overall, capabilities, brain augmentation, and repair of mental
though discussion leaders from among the participants functions.
were chosen for the major discussion sessions. The third discussion, addressing the thousand-year
The main purpose of the workshop was to provide a future, was led by Joseph Coates, President of Consult-
forum where experts could address issues concerning ing Futurist, Inc. Envisioned outcomes 40 generations
the state of the art of science and technology, as well as away include the possibility of extreme enhancements,
the myriad of complex issues stemming from them. variations in humankind and even speciation, and
Though meeting goals were outlined in advance, the translation of consciousness to nonorganic platforms.
format of the workshop allowed for redirection of the Global governance, significantly reduced world popula-
content as the discussions progressed. tion, space travel as a necessity, and further extension
During breaks, scholars were asked individually to not just of life span but also of health span were other
speak on camera for approximately five minutes each points of discussion.
on their visions of the thousand-year evolution of Using ideas from these discussions, the Executive
humanity. Those videotaped statements join more than Producer of The Next Thousand Years television series
100 similar participant statements already in existence. will refine a treatment for Program No. 5.
The workshop was documented by video footage in
addition to this published Proceedings document.

17. Section II
Theme Quotations
Dr. Gregory Stock Dr. David P. Barash
Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Revolutionary Biology: The New, Gene-Centered View of
New Global Superorganism Life (quoting from Alice in Wonderland):
“The coming transformation of humans may well sur- When Alice was lost in wonderland, she asked the
pass any previous biological transitions in both speed Cheshire cat: “Would you tell me please, which way I
and extent. Future humans will not constitute a ought to go from here?”
sequence of stable, clearly defined forms such as the “That depends a good deal on where you want to get
ones seen in typical evolutionary trees. The human to,” said the cat.
form will instead come to represent a broad variety of “I don’t much care where,” said Alice.
potent hybrids between biology and technology.” “Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the
cat.
Dr. Pierre Baldi
“So long as I get somewhere,” added Alice as an
The Shattered Self: The End of Natural Evolution explanation.
“Oh, you are sure to do that,” said the cat, “if you only
“The completion of the Human Genome Project opens walk long enough!!!”
a whole new set of possibilities for biology, biotechnol-
ogy, medicine, and society at large. A similar revolution
Dr. Edward O. Wilson
occurred when humans first learned to read and write.
We are now learning to read and write the language we In correspondence
are made of. But in many ways it is just a beginning and “Somehow everything that humans do and are likely to
only a piece of a larger revolution that is well underway. do into the indefinite future will flow from our self-
Within the same generation, the human brain will face image. At some point we will agree on what we are col-
machines that surpass its raw computing power and a lectively as a species, what it means to be human, what is
world of information-processing devices that makes sci- human nature, why we are here, and thence, from all
ence fiction pale in comparison. Together these mile- this knowledge garnered and sifted, what we wish to
stones raise profound and troubling questions about become and what we wish to do. Our science and tech-
the nature and boundaries of life, intelligence, and who nology to this point have been breathtaking, our self-
we really are.” examination still primitive.”
3

18. 4 Section II • Theme Quotations

19. Section III
Scholar Interviews
Each of the nine scholar participants of “The Future
Human” Workshop was asked to give a five-minute
statement, on camera, to one question: What is your
vision of the thousand-year evolution of our species?
This section provides a transcript of their responses.
5

20. 6 Section III • Scholar Interviews

21. Section III • Scholar Interviews 7
From a scientific point of view, we will understand
our genome; we will understand our genes; we will be
able to prevent the vast majority of human diseases; we
will be able to extend our lifetime; we will be able to
greatly increase our intelligence; we will be able to
replace many faulty organs with nanotechnology chips
and so on. So, from a technology point of view, we will
be able to do many, many things. But what is less clear is
that we will have the wisdom to do it in a way that actu-
ally makes our human species better. Living 300 years, if
that does not go along with a quality of life, is, in fact,
300 years of dying, not 300 years of living.
W. French Anderson So, my concern is not technically what we will be as
Professor of Biochemistry and Pediatrics future humans—because we could be a marvelous
Director of the Gene Therapy Laboratories group of species with all kinds of improvements (what-
USC Keck School of Medicine ever improvements are)—but I am not comfortable that
Los Angeles, CA
we will have the wisdom to be able to make use of these
new technologies in a way that will result in less human
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution suffering and a better quality of life. That is why I think
of our species? this Foundation is so extraordinarily important, because
I think that to look at where we are going to evolve in a what the Foundation For the Future does is to basically
thousand years, we need to go back a thousand, two say: “Where is humanity going and how is it getting
thousand, three thousand, four thousand years, and see there?” Not trying to say: “Here is where it ought to go;
where we have come from, what the rate of change is in here is what we ought to do,” but a much more reason-
terms of our development as a human species. If we do able approach in saying: “Where is it going and if we at
that and look at where we are at this point, where we least start to understand where we are going and why we
have come in the last thousand years, and the rate of are going in that particular way, we have some rational
change, clearly that rate of change is extraordinarily hope that perhaps we can be a little more sensible about
increased from what it has been in any previous millen- where we are going than we otherwise would.”
nium, which makes the decision about what conclusion
to come to of where we will be a thousand years from
now very hard to predict.

22. 8 Section III • Scholar Interviews

23. Section III • Scholar Interviews 9
But all of this leads us to another point, which is that
if we start doing self-designed evolution for ourselves,
we may well speciate into subgroups that eventually will
become isolated breeding populations, which is sort of a
definition of a species. And it may, in fact, also happen
even more certainly so if we end up exploring space, if
we send out human missions—not just robots. Then, de
facto, each starship is going to be a new species, because
the isolation will be too great.
One of the things we will have to come to terms with,
which will be perhaps harder than the technology and
what it means in terms of changing, is the fact that we
Athena Andreadis are the starting point for the future—not the crown of
Associate Professor of Cell Biology creation, not the jewel in that crown, but the beginning.
The Shriver Center We have evolved rapidly, and even more so now that
University of Massachusetts Medical School cultural evolution has overtaken us and has become
Waltham, MA
almost as fast as we can absorb in our present state. I
think all these changes will create stratifications and dis-
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution locations, and, being a woman, I know some of the pos-
of our species? sibilities. It is possible, for example, that if we have
The interesting subquestion hidden in that is what it womb-free reproductions, women will become trophies
means to be human—not just what we are now, but or museum pieces—or, alternatively, if we are optimists,
what we will become. Our definition of humanity has we will say, “We will be free of the reproductive part of
broadened. Originally it was the members of our clan. things and we will finally be equal human beings, and
Now it has become that we are at Kardashev Level One, our investment in our children will be the same whether
so all of the planet has become one, finally. we are men or women.” So, you can see either scenario
I think that there is no question that in the future, we playing itself out, and I cannot predict which one will be
will have some of what we discussed today; namely, we the truth.
will have interventions at several levels: augmentations, Of course, people believe this is all transgressive. I
prosthetics, germline intervention—which are interest- don’t think so. Humanity, at this point, has tinkered so
ing technologies, but they are also going to both expand much with itself and its surroundings that it has no
and challenge our definition of what it is to be human, choice but to go forward. There is nowhere to go from
including, perhaps, interface with silicon. At the same here but forward. Although most people talk of the
time, I think it is possible that through our tinkering— Babel Tower, I come from a different tradition, and my
because humans are tireless monkeys and, in fact, we are myth for all this is the myth of Prometheus, who stole
mediocre at everything except two things: We are very the fire from the gods. So, I, for one, would like to be
good with our hands, and we are very good with our alive to see what happens in the next thousand years.
minds. Everything else, we are really borderline capaci-
ties, but that is why we have been able to expand this
part. I think, therefore, that we will expand our defini-
tion of human perhaps. If we have intelligent machines,
they may actually broaden our scope.

24. 10 Section III • Scholar Interviews

25. Section III • Scholar Interviews 11
In the past there have been a number of enigmas of
existence that we have been able to overcome, we have
been able to comprehend. The mechanistic operation of
the universe, which until quite recently was ascribed to
the workings of a god or gods; the nature of life, what is
life? Now we actually understand that, and we are fast
understanding genetics and embryogenesis, our devel-
opment, and such. The significance of this is that these
require a substantial intellectual capability for under-
standing—if you think of how difficult it would be for a
chimpanzee to understand quantum mechanics.
In the past we have been able to find out an enor-
John Campbell mous amount about the universe and, with that, be able
Professor to manipulate it, and there are still many aspects of real-
Department of Neurobiology ity that we do not understand: time, causality, mental
University of California, Los Angeles representations, and such. Probably what we will have
to do will be to design new intellectual capacities in
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution order to be able to understand and then to be able to
of our species? utilize these other aspects of reality that currently we are
There are many changes that are going to happen in this still in the dark in. So, I think that is where we will be
next thousand years. The one that is going to be most going in a thousand years, eventually developing these
intimate to us will be genetic engineering, where we new capacities to understand what reality is. I don’t
change our own genetic program. I think this will have know when this will occur; it may occur in a thousand
enormous potential because it is essentially unbounded, years; it may take 10,000 years. My own feeling is it will
as far as what can be done. Initially our capabilities will take less than a thousand years, but I think it is
be limited by the amount of information we have, and it undoubted that we will make progress in this direction,
will also be limited by our resolution, our cultural laws even if we can’t understand the particular landmarks
and such. Then, after that—I would say after several along the way.
centuries when we develop almost a complete informa-
tion about human biology and genetics—it will be lim-
ited by the limits of our mental ingenuity, trying to
figure out what are advances that can be made. The sig-
nificance of that limitation is that it can be overcome by
genetic engineering itself, so that we can develop the
capacity for making these further advances. I think that
is quite significant.

26. 12 Section III • Scholar Interviews

27. Section III • Scholar Interviews 13
Then coming up close behind that, all the research
that would relate to diseases and improvement will
eventually lead to human enhancement. And that
human enhancement will ultimately work to have some
people preferring to have their progeny stronger in
some areas, some in another, and by the time the 40
generations or the next thousand years have gone by, we
will begin to see new variations in people based upon
those accumulated choices.
We already have people who differ in variety: tall,
slim, black Africans; short, squat Aleuts; and so forth
and so on. But they are all the result of geographic isola-
Joseph Coates tion. What is new is that it is going to be the accumula-
President tive effect of individual, private choice. In the course of
Consulting Futurist, Inc. all this unfolding, most of the diseases and disorders
Washington, DC that are so important today will disappear or be fully
dealt with. That is the mainstream.
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution Connected with that will be the associated, semi-
of our species? independent developments in brain science. Some of
First, evolution will continue, and the most important that, of course, is genetic, and some is not. As brain sci-
development has been, within the past decade or two, ence develops, we are going to have a technology of the
that research in genetics now makes it possible—in fact, brain, in the ordinary sense of: take it apart, put it
increasingly real—that we are the first species to be able together, change it, alter it, improve it. All of those
to directly influence its own evolution. And, of course, words of technology are going to apply to the brain, and
we will also be able to influence the evolution of other some of the improvements will be genetic; some will be
species: animals, plants, and so on. That is such an through drugs; and so forth and so on.
unprecedented capability that it is difficult to come to Then, of course, the third big change is that the
grips with it and understand all the implications. things that trouble us today will all effectively be
Basically what I see over the long period is that genet- resolved within the next 100, 120 years. What we have
ics is going to run through a cycle of, first, being able to to do is work to develop a perspective of what we really
deal with human diseases and disorders. That is where want to do in the subsequent 900 years to shape
most of the research is now focused. Then we will move humankind.
to a phase in which we are enhancing people, basically at
a low level of more or less improvement. For example,
we already know that parents of children who are per-
fectly healthy but would only, let’s say, have a boy grow-
ing to five feet tall, a girl to four-foot-eight, would just
love to have their children five or six inches taller. No
fundamental change other than what they socially per-
ceive as an improvement. That will follow the dealing
with diseases and disorders.

28. 14 Section III • Scholar Interviews

29. Section III • Scholar Interviews 15
For people, for example, in the future who want to
enhance, let’s say, their artistic side, we may very well
find that they will be looking at their schizophrenic self
at that time because of these kinds of unforeseen
changes that will occur when we deal gene-by-gene to
make differences in human beings. I think that a thou-
sand years from now we will still be trying to think up
clever ways to get around these problems. For example,
designer babies will probably just be normal kinds of
kids that don’t end up developing like the parents had
wished them to. I think the same will be true of the first
clone, as well: It will probably be some kid who just
Gregory Fowler really wants to be as far away from his progenitor as
Executive Director, Geneforum possible.
Clinical Associate Professor I don’t think that it is possible for us, in this evolu-
Oregon Health and Sciences University tionary future, to be determining what are good and
Portland, OR
bad traits, any better than we are able now to define
those categories. With regard to Stephen Hawking—
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution always an exemplar—he says that he is what he is
of our species? because of his genetic makeup.
I think that human evolution will not change so dramat- We run the risk, in terms of altering our genetic
ically in the short or the long term. The human species is makeup, in reducing our genetic diversity. By eliminat-
not really all that different from the other cohabitants ing or culling out certain genes in our genomes, we may
on this planet, and experiment and chaos have always be losing much of the diversity that we have. Others feel
been characteristic of the natural evolutionary process that if we let people, by their own values, simply move
in whatever millennium we are talking about. I think into a variety of areas—a thousand flowers blooming at
that the process will probably be faster in the future— once, so to speak—that this will increase our diversity.
perhaps in one generation or less, which is not charac- But, in fact, that is not likely to happen. I think human
teristic of the present time—but substantively it won’t diversity really isn’t an issue for us anyway; there are
change. Essentially the same kinds of selective pressures going to be lots of people who are going to continue
will be operating then as they are now. We can add reproducing in the good, old-fashioned way.
genes; we can subtract genes; the outcome is uncertain, So, I think we are not going to see significant changes
just as it is now. The environment—whatever those in the evolution of our species. The robust solution to
environments are—will be selecting for these changes. all this is really a strong democracy, in which these rea-
Basically the same kinds of evolutionary processes will sonable policies that are put into place will come from
be taking place in the future, so that by enhancing, by participation in an informed and consensual process.
fixing, by repairing genes, I think we are not going to be
making significant changes.

30. 16 Section III • Scholar Interviews

31. Section III • Scholar Interviews 17
However, there are some eventualities that I think are
fairly certain. One is that we will begin to spread beyond
the solar system and begin to colonize other parts of the
galaxy. Another is that there will be a growing differenti-
ation between the powers and capabilities of nonbiolog-
ical life and biological life. The limitations of biological
life and intelligence will mean that we will be threatened
by nonbiological life, and that one of the challenges for
the next thousand years is to create a social ecology of all
the diverse forms of organic life that will exist at that
point—and which I think will be much more diverse
than today—and all the diverse forms of cybernetic life
James J. Hughes and cyborgological life. That ecology will have to learn,
Teacher just as we do today, to encourage the powerful to respect
Trinity College, Hartford, CT and aid the weak, and for all those beings—intelligence
Secretary of the World Transhumanist Association in all of its forms—to see other intelligence as worthy of
respect, as part of the same moral community. That
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution challenge won’t go away.
of our species? One of the consequences of that is that although, for
If we survive the next couple of centuries, I think that all practical purposes, death will probably be conquered
within a couple of centuries we will have overcome by the year 3000, taxes will not, because we will still
death; we will have overcome disease and the worst need to have governance, collective decision-making,
forms of poverty; we will have functional backups of defense, and so on.
our personality available. We will be well on the way to
colonizing this solar system and probably have colonies
working on the terraforming of Mars and Europa. And
that is just the beginning. If we get that far, then the
really interesting questions begin.
I am hesitant about the ability to make solid predic-
tions. I think that things will become incomprehensibly
bizarre in some ways as nanotechnology, genetic engi-
neering, and artificial intelligence begin to converge and
create technological opportunities that are difficult for
us to even think about at this point.

32. 18 Section III • Scholar Interviews

33. Section III • Scholar Interviews 19
As individuals, when we change our biology, if we
can extend the human life span, if we can gain control
over many aspects of our emotional states, the way we
deal with emotions, the way we experience emotions,
and also over our reproduction, then we are going to do
this. And because we are using technology to do this, it
means that some of the same forces … it will have the
same feel as many of the things that now we look at as
outside of biology; for instance, fashion and consumer
marketing and product development. These are aspects
that will begin to have impacts on the way we look at
our own reproductive future.
Gregory Stock I believe that a thousand years from now, anything of
Director real value that is possible with germline manipulations
Program on Medicine, Technology, and Society and with alterations of our biology as adults is going to
UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles probably have diffused throughout the entire human
population. There is a question as to whether it would
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution create simply a little elite that would be within a sea of
of our species? unchanged humans, sort of the “future Amish.” I suspect
As we are moving through the next millennium, I think that anything that is of real value—things that lead to
that the factors that are going to be important are that increases in life expectancy, added health, those sorts of
essentially we are gaining control over matter; we are things—everybody is going to want those, just as every-
learning powerful technologies that can be applied not body wants a cell phone right now or everybody seeks a
just on the world around us—we have already applied television set, even in the most primitive of nations.
technologies to reshape the world around us—but now Right now these things are so expensive they are not fea-
they are becoming focused enough and precise enough sible yet, but the things that are of similar nature—high-
that we can turn them back upon ourselves. The chal- tech medicine and such—are available only to a few peo-
lenge is how we are going to use this technology to alter ple, but the price curves come down very rapidly, just as
our biology, because we will alter our biology, just as we they have with, say, computer technology. The richest
have the world around us. person in the world 25 years ago could not buy a com-
I think that the major ways that we are going to puter that would even begin to touch what is available
change our biology are going to be driven by some of today in a bargain basement store.
the key factors that in the past have influenced our You have technologies where there are lesser-devel-
behaviors: Our desires, our wants are shaped by our oped regions of the world, like in China and other
evolutionary background. Our desire for affiliation, our places in Southeast Asia, where the telecommunications
desire for status among individuals, sexual drives—all technology is actually more advanced than it is here in
of these sorts of things are going to be affected as we the United States. That is because the technology has
move forward. They may not remain exactly the same, become much cheaper and you can get almost a leap-
but they are always going to be a pathway of change that frogging that occurs. The same thing could easily hap-
has echoes of those original drives. The question for us pen with biological technologies. As there are things of
is exactly how they are going to influence what we value, they will become applied rather broadly.
choose to do.

34. 20 Section III • Scholar Interviews

35. Section III • Scholar Interviews 21
What we will look like in the future is clearly mostly
Chinese. The gene pool is pretty much established, and
it seems very likely that we will be physically more or
less Chinese. There has been a discussion of “neck up”
(How is our mind going to work?) and “neck down.” As
any animal—and we are animals—there is an impor-
tance more than people imagine in the “neck down”
aspect of things. I think our health is very important to
us; I think our health is going to improve probably. If
one is optimistic and we maintain a cultural integrity
during this period, I think our health will improve dra-
matically. We will be very physically fit; I think we will
Jeffry Stock exercise a lot more than we do now, in the West, at least.
Professor I think we will strive toward health. And I think we will
Molecular Biology and Chemistry live a lot longer, probably somewhere up toward 200
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ years, maybe, by the end of the thousand years,
although this will increase relatively slowly and maybe
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution won’t make as dramatic a change as we think. We will
of our species? still die.
I think the major driving force in human evolution— There will be an end of war, I think; people will try to
although a thousand years is really too short a time to be be more safe because they are living longer. That is
significant in terms of the evolution of the species (the already happening. I think our lives are relatively safe
human species at the present time), so I don’t think we compared to what they used to be. The big questions
are talking about what most people would consider evo- about love, sex, reproduction—because we will and we
lution—but the major driving force over the next thou- are taking away from that process reproduction, and we
sand years will be similar to what has been the driving will, I think, deal effectively with sexually transmitted
force over the last few thousand years, which is popula- diseases, there will be a relatively libertarian attitude
tion. The major difference is that we have gone through toward sex, and people will have sex a lot with each
a period of the last several thousand years of exponen- other in the future and be relatively hedonistic.
tial population growth, and that has got to come to an Finally, there will be, I think, a lot of game-playing, a
end. That will happen sometime within the next thou- lot of—more like Candide—tending your garden, and
sand years. that will be because of the need for safety and also
The consequence of that will be that the process that because that is what humans like to do. So, I think it will
we see as rapid change will start to diminish, so I don’t be a relatively decent future and an enjoyable future—
see us continuing on the same course of extremely rapid perhaps—and not going to space, not as different from
change or growth as we have been in the past. So, there the way it is now as some people might imagine.
will be a period of population stasis and probably popu-
lation decline. It is very difficult to know where that will
go in terms of the decline—how far down that will go.
What is optimistic and pessimistic is a matter of debate
on that score.

36. 22 Section III • Scholar Interviews

37. Section III • Scholar Interviews 23
has a mind of its own; there seems to be an intelligence
in the way things evolve, yet it is an undirected intelli-
gence. So, from our own 21st century human viewpoint,
what is it that we would alter? Clearly, the overall perfor-
mance of people is something we desire, because we
desire this in ourselves: to be smarter, quicker, live
longer, healthier, etc. But yet there are other features of
human behavior that rest in the limbic system, the mid-
brain, and this is very primitive historically. This is the
seat of emotion and probably most of human behavior.
The limbic system and midbrain of my cat and of myself
are very similar. It is only the cerebral cortex that has
Burke Zimmerman evolved over the last, say, 50,000 years that has enabled
President human beings to further the motives directed by the
BKZ Inc. more primitive parts of their brain. We can say that
Oakland, CA wars, aggression, and the kinds of survival instincts that
evolved in primitive animal societies or even early
What is your vision of the thousand-year evolution human societies are now inappropriate for a so-called
of our species? civilized planet, so should these things be something we
First of all, a thousand years is a very short time in the change as well? Eliminating aggression, enhancing
Darwinian timescale of evolution. Without some major altruism, reducing greed and selfishness, which seems to
events—either through human intervention or through be the dominant value, at least in a capitalist society, and
accident—there probably won’t be any evolution, either the results are not particularly desirable for most of us.
in our mental or psyche evolution or in our physical evo- But in order for this to happen, there has got to be an
lution. However, we now have the tools, through genetic acceptance in our global order, in our governance, so
engineering, to force evolution, if the products of evolu- that any superior minority subpopulation—and it is
tion can in some way survive as first a minority popula- going to be a very small minority to begin with—stands
tion in a vast majority of unmodified people. This is a chance of survival and not being seen as a threatening
changing the whole Darwinian scheme a bit if such alien group and annihilated by the rest of society. As we
products of forced evolution are going to make it. We see, there is no stability at all in world governance,
have talked about genetic enhancement, improving national governance—this is a very chaotic thing and
intelligence, longevity, resistance to pathology, and the much less predictable than the course of science and
question is, of course, who decides how these changes are discovery.
going to be made and what the changes actually will be. Barring that, the only way there is going to be evolu-
One can also view, when we are on the subject of tion is to have a cataclysm that reduces the human pop-
what should be changed: Do we have the arrogance or ulation to one percent of what it is, and we are back to
hubris to decide that ourselves? Darwinian evolution surviving against the elements again.

38. 24 Section III • Scholar Interviews

39. Section IV
“The Future Human”
Preliminary Outline
by Jon Palfreman Blaese plans to correct the mistake in Marsha’s genes
Executive Producer, The Next Thousand Years by trying to insert good copies into her liver cells so they
start making the missing enzyme. But one day soon, sci-
Introduction
entists like Blaese believe it may be possible—if society
In Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, we see a child, allows it—to go further and once and for all eliminate
Marsha Martin, lying on a mirrored bed illuminated by this family’s genetic curse through genetic engineering.
an eerie blue light. The clinic where Marsha is being The scheme works like this: A woman’s egg is fertil-
treated—built with volunteer Amish and Mennonite ized in vitro with the husband’s sperm. Then “germline
labor—is a curious mix of high-tech medical personnel engineering” is performed on that first fertilized egg to
and young Mennonite and Amish couples, the women correct the “bad” gene before the egg is reimplanted.
in bonnets and the men in suspenders, babies sitting in Because every cell in the human body descends from
their laps. that fertilized egg, every cell—including the germ cells
Marsha has an inherited disease called Crigler-Najjar that will be passed down to form the next generation—
syndrome. Lacking an enzyme that breaks down biliru- would have the new transplanted genes. This means that
bin, a liver waste product, she needs “phototherapy” to the genetic error that has plagued this family for hun-
stay alive—ten to 12 hours each day lying in a mirrored dreds of years would be corrected, not just for the
bed exposed to a light of a special blue wavelength. Cri- unborn child but also for all future generations. Not
gler-Najjar syndrome is one of many inherited diseases only would their child be saved, but all of her descen-
that afflict the Amish community in Lancaster County. dants would be spared from this terrible scourge.
Marsha’s parents, Miriam and John Martin, of Mifflin- Germline gene therapy hasn’t happened yet … but
burg, PA, have three young children with Crigler-Najjar within a few decades it will be possible. The prospect, at
syndrome. Like other Amish, they travel by horse and once exciting and alarming, has divided scholars.
buggy, and shun technology in their day-to-day lives, FRANCIS FUKUYAMA, Johns Hopkins University:
but they are enthusiastic supporters of one modern “It’s very worrying. While it seems right to help a dying
technology: gene therapy. Despite their strong religious child, or an afflicted family, this medical necessity
beliefs, they see nothing wrong in accepting help from obscures the bigger picture. If you can engineer the
geneticists like Dr. Michael Blaese. germline to prevent disease, you can also do it to
MICHAEL BLAESE: “The Amish and Mennonites enhance desired traits like intelligence. The door is
are descendants of a small group of Swiss and German opened to eugenics and worse. The potential for bio-
Anabaptists who settled in Pennsylvania in the 1700s. technology to alter human nature and thereby move us
Since they were forbidden to marry outside their reli- into a “posthuman” stage of history is the most signifi-
gion, they married each other. This inbreeding led to cant threat we face. It may change irreversibly who we
very high rates of certain genetic disorders. For some are.”
families the situation is absolutely devastating. The LEE SILVER, Princeton University: “Why not seize
only thing that offers them a possible way out is gene this power? Why not control what has been left to
therapy.” chance in the past? Indeed we control all other aspects
25

40. 26 Section IV • “The Future Human” Preliminary Outline
of our children’s lives and identities through powerful The Martins and the Thompsons are two families
social and environmental influences and, in some cases, caught in the middle of a genetic revolution. Their two
with the use of powerful drugs like Ritalin and Prozac. examples are just a taste of the ethical dilemmas that
On what basis can we reject positive genetic influences face society as reproductive technologies literally
on a person’s essence when we accept the rights of par- threaten to redefine who we are. In addition to germline
ents to benefit their children in every other way?” engineering and PGD, there are many other develop-
If germline therapy is decades away, something that ments that threaten to upset (for better or worse) age-
is here already is genetic screening. Embryos created by old traditions of birth, procreation, and death. There
in vitro fertilization can be checked before implantation are, for example, cloning and stem cell research—part
to see which ones possess the disease trait, and those of a bold vision of what has been called “regenerative
that do can be discarded. medicine” that will, it’s claimed, enable the body “to
We see a small house in Bethesda, Maryland. The own- repair itself.” By conquering the major degenerative dis-
ers, John and Mary Thompson, who are deaf, are eating eases, this vision of medicine promises to greatly extend
dinner, signing to each other. life spans. Other scientists have already increased life
spans of certain animals through genetic manipulation
John and Mary are activists for the deaf community. by a factor of six and believe that human longevity can,
They believe passionately that deafness is a culture and in principle, be extended by genetic means.
not a disability. Mary and John are expecting their first While many of these techniques have resulted from
child and, realizing that deafness can be passed as a well-intentioned medical research, they raise questions
hereditary trait, have discussed their concerns about that go way beyond science. What seems certain is this:
whether their child will be born able to hear or deaf like We seem to be on a path that will, over the next few cen-
them. They are seeking a genetic test that screens turies, lead us to redefine who or what a human being is.
embryos and determines which ones carry the deafness GREGORY STOCK: “Throughout all of history until
gene. They have learned about a technique called Pre- the present, life has been shaped by the natural forces of
implantation Genetic Diagnosis or PGD. evolution by natural selection. We are seeing the begin-
Unlike germline engineering, the technology of PGD ning of a profound change: a world in which sex and
is here today. Embryo-screening is designed to allow reproduction become separate, a world in which our
parents at risk for having children with heritable disor- children are designed rather than leave their fate to a
ders to beat the genetic lottery. Tests currently exist for “genetic lottery,”… a world in which humans may live
cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs disease, sickle cell anemia, many hundreds of years. Evolution is no longer beyond
thalassemia, phenylketonuria, spinal muscular atrophy, human reach. Henceforth some humans will start to
myotonic dystrophy and one type of Alzheimer’s dis- self-direct their own evolution. For better or worse, we
ease. PGD works like this: In a test tube, a woman’s eggs are gaining the power to redesign ourselves.” Not some
are fertilized with the husband’s sperm and then the humans, but humanity as a whole.
resulting embryos are sampled using a genetic test to see The fact that we humans can do something does not
which one is carrying the “mutant” gene. Only the mean that we will choose to do those things. True in
desired embryo(s) need be reimplanted; the undesirable general, but I believe that the argument that we will pro-
ones can be discarded. For parents willing to discard a ceed down this path is compelling, and we need to
potential life, this genetic screening and selection explore the consequences—spiritual/social/political—
option is already available. But as the Thompsons’ case that will attend this journey. While we cannot predict
shows, some complicated issues are looming. the future with any great certainty, we can be sure that
In a remarkable twist, John and Mary Thompson profound issues are at stake—issues that need careful
want to use this technology not to eliminate an embryo discussion and consideration. The decisions we make
with a deafness gene, but to select embryos that possess today will determine which of many paths humanity
it. For them deafness is a desired trait, not a disease. takes—choices that may, over the course of a few centu-
JOHN THOMPSON: “We believe that a hearing ries, lead to extraordinary ramifications. With contribu-
child will not have as full a life as a deaf child in our fam- tions from theologians, ethicists, philosophers,
ily. We live in a community of deaf people. To us, deaf- scientists, and engineers, this program will seek to
ness is not a disease; it is a gift. We want our child to advance intelligent debate in this complex and impor-
have that gift.” tant area. From Aristotle to the Human Genome

41. Section IV • “The Future Human” Preliminary Outline 27
Project, from Confucius to machine intelligence, this example, causes children to be born lacking a key liver
program will seek to fuse the spiritual and the scientific. enzyme. Left untreated, children born with this genetic
disorder—called phenylketonuria—develop mental
Biotechnology: The Promise and Perils retardation. But just because something is genetic—sci-
James Watson, Francis Crick, and Maurice Wilkins entists argued—doesn’t mean it is unchangeable. Doc-
receiving the Nobel Prize in medicine. We cut to tors discovered that by putting such children on a
Wilkins in London, now active in the British Society for special diet, they could avoid the problem and enable
Social Responsibility in Science, which challenges the the children to grow up with normal intelligence.
future unfettered development of molecular biology. MAURICE WILKINS: Helping children with phe-
nylketonuria is a wonderful use of molecular biology.
Maurice Wilkins is one of a trio of scientists who made
Unfortunately it doesn’t stop there. Any technology for
perhaps the greatest discovery of the 20th century. In
power to do good also has potential for great harm. I
popular scientific legend, Wilkins, together with James
had no idea initially that molecular biology would lead
Watson and Francis Crick, discovered the secret of life.
to things like cloning … genetically modified salmon …
In fact, it wasn’t the secret but a secret—a very important
germline engineering …. I’ve since realized that the sci-
one—the structure of DNA. Today the three men lead
ence I helped start needs careful oversight, perhaps even
rather different lives. James Watson has become a leader
more than nuclear physics. Because it affects the sanc-
in biology and for a time led the Human Genome
tity of who we are.”
Project. Francis Crick became more interested in under-
Watson and Crick feel quite differently.
standing the human brain and now works at the Salk
JAMES WATSON: “Terms like sanctity remind me of
Institute. Maurice Wilkins has increasingly devoted
animal rights. Who gave a dog a right? This word right
himself to speaking out about the social issues raised by
gets very dangerous. We have women’s rights, children’s
the new biology. Watson and Wilkins have come to very
rights; it goes on forever. And then there’s the right of a
different conclusions about the science they helped start.
salamander and a frog’s rights. It’s carried to the absurd
Wilkins started life as a physicist who did work con-
…. I’d like to give up saying rights or sanctity. Instead,
nected with the atomic bomb project. Horrified by what
say that humans have needs, and we should try, as a
happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, he decided to
social species, to respond to human needs—like food or
switch to biology, feeling that nothing as bad could flow
education or health—and that’s the way we should
from biological research. His switch was motivated by
work. To try to give it more meaning than it deserves is
reading an extraordinary book by the Austrian physicist
just plain—I mean, it’s crap.”
Erwin Schrodinger entitled What Is Life?
That two colleagues can end up with such disparate
MAURICE WILKINS: “This book changed my life.
positions is revealing. Biotechnology both excites our
From the moment I read it, I realized that I would
wonder and elicits repugnance.
devote the remainder of my career to exploring the liv-
In 1953, when Watson and Crick published their
ing world. The book started with a simple question and
paper on DNA, babies were made the same way they
with the brilliant precision of a physicist’s mind, Schro-
had always been made: by sexual reproduction follow-
dinger led the reader directly to the conclusion that the
ing a union between a fertile man and woman. A lot has
entity that passes life’s traits from one generation to
happened since.
another—the gene—must be a large molecule. Life in
all its magic was at root simply fancy chemistry. Pretty Reproductive Medicine: Social Changes, Daunting
soon we realized that the key chemical of inheritance Dilemmas
was a substance called DNA. That’s what led me to my
work, and what led Jim and Francis to their break- The pill and other later birth control devices, and the
through.” legalization of abortion in most countries, enabled
After Watson and Crick showed that DNA was women the option of having fewer children. It worked
shaped like a double helix, connected with four chemi- better than anyone imagined. Today in Western Europe
cal bases, other scientists went on to explain how such a many countries produce little more than one child per
simple molecule could be a blueprint for life—manu- couple on average. Populations are falling and aging.
facturing proteins, cells, tissues, and organs. Better prenatal care led to a great reduction in the
The discovery of the structure of DNA started a new infant mortality rate. But screening methods have led to
science, molecular biology, a science with enormous some unintended consequences—especially in Asia.
promise for good. A tiny error on chromosome 12, for

42. 28 Section IV • “The Future Human” Preliminary Outline
GREGORY STOCK: “Even with relatively low-tech damental changes in human nature and the meaning of
screening methods, a change in the human species is humanity. These technological changes have brought us
well under way. Sex selection has been possible for more to a crucial fork in the road. We are compelled to decide
than a decade and, while illegal, it is widely practiced, nothing less than whether human procreation is going
especially in Asia. In South Korea, boys outnumber to remain human…whether children are going to be
girls: There are 122 boys born for every 100 girls. The made to order rather than begotten, and whether we
rates are similar in China. This signals the beginning of wish to say yes in principle to the road that leads to the
a fundamental change in our species. Within 20 years, dehumanized hell of Brave New World.”
up to a fifth of all Chinese males will be unable to find Kass started life as an enthusiastic researcher in
brides from their generation.” molecular biology at the National Institutes of Health.
Meanwhile the plight of childless couples unable to Today he passionately opposes the unrestricted devel-
conceive through traditional sexual means led scientists opment of genetic engineering. His views are shared by
to develop in vitro techniques, resulting in 1978 in the many humanists, philosophers, and theologians.
first “test tube baby,” Louise Brown. Science and technology have always challenged
While bringing joy to countless childless couples, in beliefs about the nature of humanity. The world’s reli-
vitro techniques were used for things that its inventors gions have had to accommodate discoveries about the
never intended—things that had never occurred before creation of the universe and the Earth’s place in it; they
in evolution. Today, in vitro technology allows women have had to acknowledge the scientific theory of the ori-
long past the age of menopause to give birth, and per- gin of humanity and the human animal’s relationship to
mits widows to have children with the sperm of their other living things. But the scientific advances of the past
dead husbands. Some in vitro cases raise bizarre dilem- 50 years in science pose perhaps the greatest challenge to
mas that keep academic philosophers on their toes. our self-image. If human evolution can be self-directed,
DANIEL CALLAHAN (Hastings Institute): “Take the if humans can be redesigned, then what happens to our
case of Janet M. She is not your average mother. Janet is beliefs about human nature, human rights, and human
a 42-year-old, single mother with two sons, four and six dignity—beliefs that underpin our religious, political,
years old, both of whom were conceived using anony- and legal institutions? What happens to long-established
mous-donor sperm. A few months ago, Janet moved constructs like free will and consciousness?
from Los Angeles to San Francisco to take a new job and
to be closer to her widowed father. Janet comes to a fer- Unlocking the Human Genome
tility clinic for a third child, again using donor sperm. The Laboratories of Celera.
After one in vitro fertilization cycle using donor sperm,
Some scientists believe that changes in the human spe-
Janet learns that she has poor-quality eggs. To become
cies are unavoidable because of an explosion in knowl-
pregnant, she would need a donated egg. Here’s where it
edge that has already led to technologies that offer
gets weird. Because she badly wants genetic connection
couples choices as to what kind of baby they will have.
to her child, she requests that her father be the sperm
In 2001 the first draft of the human genome was pub-
donor. She would use an anonymous egg donor. In this
lished in the journals Science and Nature. Craig Ventner,
manner she would be able to maintain a genetic link
the scientist whose company, Celera, produced one of
through her father and still experience pregnancy. Her
the drafts, believes that within five years he will be able
father says yes.
to sequence individual genomes to order, for a price tag
What are we to make of such a scenario? Is what is
of $1,000. To start with, the information—-probably
being proposed incest? Is it an abomination or is it a
put on a CD—will be a novelty. But not for long.
reasonable use of the options provided by genetic engi-
neering? A helicopter shot reveals the striking terrain of Iceland.
Leon Kass, head of the Presidential Committee on We find ourselves in Reykjavik watching people walk-
Bioethics, has a word for what most people feel on hear- ing down the street. We see a man, Stendor Hjorleifs-
ing such a case: repugnance. He feels the repugnance of son, turn into his house where he is greeted by members
ordinary folks contains a folk wisdom that has been lost of his family.
by scientists and professional ethicists. Here in Iceland, scientists have embarked on a remark-
LEON KASS: “Biotechnologies are providing powers able project that shows the value of genomic informa-
to intervene in human bodies and minds that go beyond tion. It may lead to cures for many of the world’s major
the traditional goals of healing the sick, to threaten fun- diseases. Icelanders are descended from a small num-

43. Section IV • “The Future Human” Preliminary Outline 29
ber—less than 20,000—of founders who settled the Some companies are already developing the technol-
islands between AD 870 and 930. Few settlers arrived ogy to rapidly screen individual genomes for genetic
after the tenth century, so most Icelanders can trace variants. This gene chip made by the California com-
their lineages back to a founding ancestor. These factors pany Affimetrix can potentially screen for thousands of
have made Iceland a very attractive place to start teasing genes at a time.
out the function of the 30,000 genes in the human GREGORY STOCK: “What is unavoidable is that the
genome. very same technology that is so useful for medical
Stendor Hjorleifsson’s family have suffered from an research could easily be used to screen new embryos for
inherited form of asthma for as long as anyone can genetic traits. Once we know the various forms of genes
remember. Careful genealogy has revealed it to have involved in, say, IQ, mood, musicality, etc.—we don’t
originated with a single couple in the 17th century. The know them yet, but we will in a matter of decades—we
Hjorleifssons are now part of a study to find this asthma will be able to look to see which ones are present in an
gene and many other genes—a study that involves vir- embryo and then we can select the embryos with the
tually the entire Icelandic population. traits we desire. Today the genetic lottery of sexual
The DeCODE company in Reykjavik, Iceland. reproduction guarantees that the son or daughter of a
parent will not necessarily inherit his or her talents and
Kari Stefanson, founder and CEO of DeCODE Genet- abilities. Germline engineering reverses the “unfairness”
ics, is managing the project for the Icelandic govern- of this genetic lottery, making good genes a matter of
ment. His database contains the details of 650,000 choice, not accident of birth. Another approach scien-
individuals stretching back over 1,100 years. By match- tists are working on is artificial chromosomes. By add-
ing gene profiles from blood samples donated by local ing a new pair of artificial chromosomes to the embryo
people against family histories and health records, he (chromosomes that have been engineered with all the
plans to track genes across the generations. latest genetic enhancements), designer babies could be
KARI STEFANSON: “We will be able to track tiny produced.”
variations in DNA called SNPs (single nucleotide poly- The Human Genome Project has proceeded so rap-
morphisms) down multiple generations and find genes idly that it is highly probable that in a century or two
involved in all the major illnesses. These novel genes will most of the mysteries of biology (which took millions of
direct the search for cures for everything from cancers years to evolve) will be understood and mastered. Some
to Alzheimer’s. We have already found some genes scholars have argued that one danger of this technology
related to schizophrenia.” is that in the future, social elites may be able to control
DeCODE has lots of competition. Scientists and the genetic odds for their offspring. Will this undermine
companies everywhere are trying to ferret out what each the notion of universal human dignity and lead to a
of the 30,000-odd human genes do. Identifying the bifurcation of the species into Genrich and Genpoor
genes implicated in major diseases like Alzheimer’s and humans?
cancer is just a start. After that, genes involved in behav- FRANCIS FUKUYAMA: “The notion of human
ior will be identified and then genes that are involved in equality is fundamental to many societies. In politics
nonmedical attributes like IQ, musical ability, athletic humans are accorded special rights—to vote, for exam-
prowess, and so on. ple—based on a presumed special essence that no ani-
As more and more genes’ functions become known, mal or machine possesses. Even though the rich and
the value of personal gene scans increases. Ventner successful can pass on privileges, they can’t take away
believes that even without projects like DeCODE’s, rights and they can’t so far embed advantages genetically.
progress will come rapidly. With so many genomes Will genetic enhancement destabilize our political insti-
being sequenced (at $1,000 a pop), scientists will also be tutions? I think that we should be acutely concerned.”
able to use simple brute-force statistics that will correlate
genes to traits—initially disease traits. This will speed The Nature of Human Nature
the task of identifying what all the human genes do. Many scientists (and many ethicists) belong to the
But it won’t end there. The information will identify philosophical school called utilitarianism, which seeks
genes for positive traits as well, and this knowledge, to satisfy human needs and interests without reference
once out in the world, may be acted on by prospective to rights.
parents. But our political and legal institutions assume that
beyond human needs and interests are things called