1. Effect of Climate Change on
Africa and Its People:
Multiple Stress Factors
Dr Engobo Emeseh
Department of Law and Criminology
Aberystwyth University
United Kingdom
ege@aber.ac.uk
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
Machynlleth

2. Climate Change and Africa
 “Africa is one of the most vulnerable
continents to climate change and climate
variability, a situation aggravated by the
interaction of ‘multiple stresses’,
occurring at various levels, and low
adaptive capacity”
 IPCC 2007, 4th Assessment Report, Chapter 9
4th April 2014
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3. A vulnerable Continent
“All its regions - from the flood prone
coastal regions, to the more drought
susceptible semi-arid and arid Sahel
and Saharan regions- are fragile and
sensitive to the impacts of climate
change.”
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
Machynlleth

4. Africa and Climate Vulnerability-
Factsheet
 ™ By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people projected to be
exposed to increased water stress.
 ™Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%
with implications for food security and malnutrition
 Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will
affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations.
 By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa
is projected under a range of climate scenarios .
 ™ The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
 Report. Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC, 2007
4th April 2014
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5. Multiple Stresses- Internal
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 Physical Factors
 Economic Factors
 Poverty
 Dependence on primary sectors
 e.g- agriculture is the economic foundation of many countries,
employing about 60% of the population (especially those in
the rural areas) and accounting for about 30% of GDP
 Capacity Deficits and Institutional/Governance
Challenges

6. Stressors- External
 Global Pressures
 Climate Change mitigation/Energy Security
 Bio- fuels
 Global Food Security
 “Land grabs”
4th April 2014
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7. Case Study- 2012 Floods in Nigeria
4th April 2014
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 Nigeria
 In West Africa
 Population- 150 million
 Climatic Zones- varied

8.  Worst in decades
 From early July 2012 – late November 2012
 Flooding in most states in the country
 7.7 Million affected, over 2.1 million
displaced, 5,800 injured, and 363 people
killed.
4th April 2014
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Facts

9. 2012 Flood – Most Affected States
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10. 4th April 2014
Trofani
Agbere
Elemebiri
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11. Floods in Bayelsa State-
 7 out of the 8 LGAs affected
 355 Communities affected
 All areas along major river banks were submerged.
 42,683 houses affected
 800,000 persons were directly or indirectly
affected
 4,005 fish farms destroyed
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
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12.  35 deaths
 Illnesses due to contaminated sources of drinking
 Widespread displacement
 E.g. the Federal University was forced to evacuate their
campus and shut for 2 months
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Impacts

13. Impacts (2)
 Over 85% of agricultural land
 Food crops completely destroyed
 4,005 fish farms destroyed
 Equipment (fishing, farming) destroyed or lost
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
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 Infrastructure
 Roads, Bridges, Schools…
 Public, Business and Residential Properties

14. Aerial View of Trofani Community
16/09/14

15. A completely submerged house in Igbogene
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
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16. Flood Defence ??
16/09/14

17. Sagbama LG Council Secretariat Complex
16/09/14

18. Rescuing some personal properties in Biseni
16/09/14

19. A Relief Camp for Displaced Persons
16/09/14

20. Displaced mother and her children
16/09/14

21. Another victim in Azikoro Village
16/09/14

22. Yet another in Azikoro, Yenagoa
16/09/14

23. Aerial view of a flooded plantation in Elebele
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
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24. On-The-Spot Assessment by NEMA Officials
16/09/14

25. Collapsed Imiringi Bridge
16/09/14

26. A damaged section of Trofani Road
16/09/14

27. Contributory Factors
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Natural Factors
 Physical, Climate change?...,
Socio/Economic Factors
 Land Use Patterns, Environmental Degradation, Poverty,
Livelihoods, housing…
External
 Upper Riparian States
 water releases from the Lagdo Reservoir in Cameroun,

28. 4th April 2014
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Responses
 Disaster Management and Adaptation
 Relevant Factors
 Costs
 Capacity
 Local Knowledge

29. Institutional Factors
 Multiple Institutions/Agencies
 Input from various ministries/departments
 Environment, Agriculture, Planning, Forestry, Transport,
Health, Housing, Water, etc.
 Monitoring/enforcement
 Clear lead role?
 conflicts/overlaps
 Coherent Policy/Strategy?
4th April 2014
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30. 4th April 2014
THANK YOU
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