The document discusses the vulnerability of Africa to climate change and the effects seen in Nigeria from severe flooding in 2012. It notes that Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change due to multiple stress factors, including physical factors like varied climates, economic issues like poverty and agricultural dependence, and capacity deficits. The 2012 flooding in Nigeria affected over 7 million people across many states, destroying agricultural land, infrastructure, and housing. The floods were likely worsened by climate change impacts along with socioeconomic and land use issues. Effective responses are challenged by high costs and limited institutional capacity.

1. Effect of Climate Change on
Africa and Its People:
Multiple Stress Factors
Dr Engobo Emeseh
Department of Law and Criminology
Aberystwyth University
United Kingdom
ege@aber.ac.uk
4th April 2014
Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference,
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2. Climate Change and Africa
 “Africa is one of the most vulnerable
continents to climate change and climate
variability, a situation aggravated by the
interaction of ‘multiple stresses’,
occurring at various levels, and low
adaptive capacity”
 IPCC 2007, 4th Assessment Report, Chapter 9
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3. A vulnerable Continent
“All its regions - from the flood prone
coastal regions, to the more drought
susceptible semi-arid and arid Sahel
and Saharan regions- are fragile and
sensitive to the impacts of climate
change.”
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4. Africa and Climate Vulnerability-
Factsheet
 ™ By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people projected to be
exposed to increased water stress.
 ™Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%
with implications for food security and malnutrition
 Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will
affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations.
 By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa
is projected under a range of climate scenarios .
 ™ The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
 Report. Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC, 2007
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5. Multiple Stresses- Internal
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 Physical Factors
 Economic Factors
 Poverty
 Dependence on primary sectors
 e.g- agriculture is the economic foundation of many countries,
employing about 60% of the population (especially those in
the rural areas) and accounting for about 30% of GDP
 Capacity Deficits and Institutional/Governance
Challenges

6. Stressors- External
 Global Pressures
 Climate Change mitigation/Energy Security
 Bio- fuels
 Global Food Security
 “Land grabs”
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7. Case Study- 2012 Floods in Nigeria
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 Nigeria
 In West Africa
 Population- 150 million
 Climatic Zones- varied

8.  Worst in decades
 From early July 2012 – late November 2012
 Flooding in most states in the country
 7.7 Million affected, over 2.1 million
displaced, 5,800 injured, and 363 people
killed.
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Facts

9. 2012 Flood – Most Affected States
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10. 4th April 2014
Trofani
Agbere
Elemebiri
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11. Floods in Bayelsa State-
 7 out of the 8 LGAs affected
 355 Communities affected
 All areas along major river banks were submerged.
 42,683 houses affected
 800,000 persons were directly or indirectly
affected
 4,005 fish farms destroyed
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12.  35 deaths
 Illnesses due to contaminated sources of drinking
 Widespread displacement
 E.g. the Federal University was forced to evacuate their
campus and shut for 2 months
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Impacts

13. Impacts (2)
 Over 85% of agricultural land
 Food crops completely destroyed
 4,005 fish farms destroyed
 Equipment (fishing, farming) destroyed or lost
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 Infrastructure
 Roads, Bridges, Schools…
 Public, Business and Residential Properties

14. Aerial View of Trofani Community
16/09/14

15. A completely submerged house in Igbogene
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16. Flood Defence ??
16/09/14

17. Sagbama LG Council Secretariat Complex
16/09/14

18. Rescuing some personal properties in Biseni
16/09/14

19. A Relief Camp for Displaced Persons
16/09/14

20. Displaced mother and her children
16/09/14

21. Another victim in Azikoro Village
16/09/14

22. Yet another in Azikoro, Yenagoa
16/09/14

23. Aerial view of a flooded plantation in Elebele
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24. On-The-Spot Assessment by NEMA Officials
16/09/14

25. Collapsed Imiringi Bridge
16/09/14

26. A damaged section of Trofani Road
16/09/14

27. Contributory Factors
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Natural Factors
 Physical, Climate change?...,
Socio/Economic Factors
 Land Use Patterns, Environmental Degradation, Poverty,
Livelihoods, housing…
External
 Upper Riparian States
 water releases from the Lagdo Reservoir in Cameroun,

28. 4th April 2014
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Responses
 Disaster Management and Adaptation
 Relevant Factors
 Costs
 Capacity
 Local Knowledge

29. Institutional Factors
 Multiple Institutions/Agencies
 Input from various ministries/departments
 Environment, Agriculture, Planning, Forestry, Transport,
Health, Housing, Water, etc.
 Monitoring/enforcement
 Clear lead role?
 conflicts/overlaps
 Coherent Policy/Strategy?
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30. 4th April 2014
THANK YOU
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