Indian Monsoon 2017 -- review of crop prospects

1. Season/Trade Crop Segment Indian Crop size in World % Rank
Crop
Prospects
Implications on Crops
Kharif
Summer Crops
(Rain Fed)
Grains Cereals
Corn 3% 7
Corn acreage in India for 2017/18 is close to 9.5 million hectares. Production of
kharif corn is projected at 18.73 MMT, which is only marginally lower than last
year (by 0.52 MMT) and higher than the five year average by 2.15 MMT. Hence,
the crop prospects are good
Pulses 50-60% 1
Pulses output is estimated at 8.71 MMT, which is a 7.5 percent decline from the
previous year. This is attributed to erratic rains as well as due to farmers shifting
to more lucrative crops such as sugarcane and cotton.
Spices
Black Pepper 18% 2
Production is projected to have risen in Karnataka and Kerala. This factor,
coupled with entry of cheap Vietnamese imports, could lower prices
Chili 35% 2
High stocks and supply glut caused a drop in prices. But due to inadequate rains
in Andhra Pradesh, the major producer, and slowing export demand from China,
farmers could shift to other lucrative crops
Turmeric 72% 1
Good rainfall in the Southern states during the past few weeks has improved
crop prospects. The turmeric crop is estimated to be at similar levels to last year,
viz., 10-11 lakh tonnes
Cardamom 32% 2
Scanty rainfall in Kerala is projected to reduce the cardamom production nearly
by 30% from last year estimates.
Softs
Sugar 19% 2
Higher than expected cane area is projected to raise sugar production to a 6 year
high despite monsoon deficits. Sugar output is forecasted at 27.7 MMT in
2017/18
Cotton 21% 2
Cotton acreage has been reported to increase in 2017/18 by 12.4 percent to 12.2
mha due to lucrative margins. Production in 2017/18 is also projected to rise by
11.1 percent to 30.5 million bales
Others
Guar Seed 80% 1
Despite higher acreage, excessive rains in growing states like Gujarat and
Rajasthan which damaged crop. And coupled with export demand, prices have
gone up.
Mentha Oil 82% 1
Mentha oil is expected to witness a normal production, but heavy rainfall in
growing regions of North India could affect progress of harvest
Rabi
Winter Crops
(Irrigated)
Grains
Wheat 12% 3
Wheat production is projected to rise by 10.3 percent in 2017/18 to be 96
MMT, which is a record harvest. Lack of rains in some regions could however
cause a drop in sowing
Rice 21% 2
Rice production could fall by 2 percent to 94.48 MMT, but the crop has had
normal rainfall and supply is adequate
Spices Chili 9% 2 Normal production expected due to favorable conditions