Where's the acquisition in the retention equation?
1. Laura Connors, National Parks Conservation Association
Sharon Dreyfuss, World Wildlife Fund
Kerri Kerr, Avalon Consulting
Where's the Acquisition in the
Retention Equation?
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2. Here with you today…
Laura Connors – Acting Vice President, Membership, National Parks Conservation Association
• NPCA’s mission is to protect our national parks for future generations.
• NPCA has more than 1 million members and supporters.
Sharon Dreyfuss – Manager, Direct Response and Acquisition, World Wildlife Fund
• WWF’s mission is to conserve nature and reduce the most pressing threats to the diversity of life on Earth.
• WWF has a mature fundraising program with over 1 million members.
Kerri Kerr – Senior Vice President, Avalon Consulting Group
• Avalon is a full-service direct marketing fundraising agency.
• Since 1997, Avalon has helped our clients raise millions of dollars to achieve their visions for a better world—while
building relationships with people who share their passion and support their important causes.
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3. Acquisition in the Retention Equation
In today’s session…
Learn how leading
fundraising organizations
are using data to make
strategic changes
to improve their
membership retention.
See how fundraising
programs are evaluating
program success based on
both upfront and long-term
performance metrics.
Know how to move beyond
basic campaign analysis
with more insightful master
file analysis that will lead to
real strategic change and
impact on retention.
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4. How do we define “acquisition”?
A system of acquiring new donors to an organization using a
variety of channels, formats and techniques.
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5. How do we define “retention”?
Donors who start the year having given a gift in the
previous 12 month period, and make a gift in the
subsequent 12 month period, are considered retained.
Ex: If you start the year with 1,000 “current” donors, and
over the period of the next 12 months 600 of them make a
gift, retention is 60% for the year.
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6. Why retention and acquisition?
Traditional discussions around retention have focused on the donor experience.
Yet, data shows a clear link between the start of the donor relationship and that
donor’s subsequent retention and long-term value.
If donors don’t join your organization for the right reasons – namely, passion about your
mission and a desire to make a real difference – then no amount of engagement and
retention activities will keep them on board.
Acquisition provides a critical opportunity to focus expense where the organization will
get the best return and retention – on how those donors are acquired in the first place.
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10. Channel
xxx
Background: NPCA’s large and robust acquisition program encompasses
multiple channels. While direct mail is dominant by volume, analysis has
shown that joins from the web and email are very valuable and show
stronger long-term value metrics.
After five years,
web and email
joins’ retention is
notably higher
than direct mail
joins.
23.4%
22.1%
18.6%
15.3% 14.0%
26.2% 27.9%
23.4% 19.7%
19.6%
28.4%
30.5%
24.9%
22.1% 22.2%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Direct Mail Joins Web Joins Email Joins
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11. #Bridge15
Email joins have the highest donor value, although direct mail joins have
been increasing in value over time.
Channel
xxx
$81
$152
Direct Mail Web Email
5 Year Donor Value
$43
• Donor value is nearly doubled for web joins and tripled for email joins.
• Yet, low response rates and universe limitations restrict the growth of web and
email joins.
12. Channel
xxx
Email and web
joins are now 7%
of new joins
compared to 2.5%
in 2009.
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
DM New Joins Web Joins Email Joins TM Joins
• Knowing the value and retention of new joins by channel, NPCA has allocated
resources to growing web and email joins, while simultaneously working to
increase the value of direct mail joins.
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13. Channel
Background: For WWF, all acquisition channels are tracked with the same
metrics, and all compete on equal ground for investment dollars.
• Direct mail acquisition
• Reinstates
• Direct Response TV
• Online activities (banner ads, Change.org, Google, etc.)
• DRTV – the cost to acquire a monthly member is 7 times greater than a direct mail
donor, but the LTV of the donor is much higher and the net LTV is much higher.
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14. Channel
xxx
Background: An environmental organization acquired a significant number
of members through a face to face canvassing program. While the volume
of acquisition joins increased at the peak of the program, revenue and
overall file size remained flat.
Canvass joins
were the
dominant channel
of acquisition
from FY06-FY09.
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15. Channel
Analysis by channel indicated that retention over five years varied dramatically by
channel, with canvass joins far underperforming other direct marketing channels.
28.8%
20.9%
6.9% 7.0%
23.2%
13.6%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
DM Joins Canvass Joins Web Joins
With this
information
among other
factors, the
organization
cancelled the
program and
shifted funds to
more productive
channels.
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17. Audience – List Analysis
• Utilize individual List Return on Investment metrics.
• Don’t be fooled by upfront performance!
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
List 1
List 2
List 3
List 4
List 5
List 6
List 7
List 8
List 9
List 10
List 11
List 12
List 13
List 14
List 15
List 16
List 17
List 18
List 19
List 20
List 21
List 22
List 23
List 24
List 25
List 26
Gross Return on Investment at 3 Years
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19. WWF Direct mail acquisition:
• Work closely with list broker.
• Share updated present value by list and list select quarterly.
• Along with standard metrics, every list plan incorporates a Present Value Calculation.
Goal: Mail lists that have positive “Total Present Value/Gross Cost ratio” of one or greater.
Example:
List Cost/ Donor
(PL) Subs Rev/Donor
Blended Net
Cost/Donor Total Blend Net
Gross Cost
Per Donor
Total Present
Value/Donor
Total
PV/Gross
Cost
List A ($37.24) $ 82.28 $ 45.04 $ 0.35 $104.05 $149.09 1.43
List B ($15.87) $ 33.28 $ 17.41 $ 0.03 $43.72 $61.13 1.40
Audience – List Analysis
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20. Audience – List Analysis
xxxProspecting Database Case Study –
Targeting Your Audience for Long-Term Value
• In March of 2014, WWF teamed with Infogroup to create a Prospecting Database
• Only worthwhile if you mail 10,000,000 pieces or more a year
• Benefits:
• Select high value names from the Prospect Database
• Post-merge model outside lists, and drop names that are not high value with better projected
retention
• Review records regardless of list, and assign packages and ask strings at a record level
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21. 0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Retention Year 1 Retention Year 2 Retention Year 3 Retention Year 4 Retention Year 5 Retention Year 6 Retention Year 7
Increase of Female Retention over Male
Audience – Demographics
• Identify demographics that indicate a high-retaining donor.
• Use these attributes to target your universe.
• For WWF, female donors equate to higher retention.
• WWF’s file is 74% female. After 7 years, females retain 1.8% better than
males.
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WWF uses this
information for
list qualification,
selection, and
enhanced
targeting in
acquisition.
22. 1 < 35 35 < 45 45 < 55 55 < 60 60 < 65 65 < 75 75 < 85 85+
Retention Year 1 Retention Year 7
Audience – Demographics
• Similarly, for WWF (and many organizations), age matters.
• Up to a point, the older the donor, the stronger the retention.
• For WWF, 65-75 year olds retain best.
• Invest your acquisition dollars to get the members who will pay back
more over time.
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23. Audience – List Analysis
• Test and analyze co-op modeled lists as part of your acquisition audience.
• For many organizations, co-op lists generate high retaining and high LTV members when
compared to outside lists.
• There are vast differences between co-ops – assess both short-term and long-term
performance to determine the most productive universe.
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46%
15%
13%
-3%
-11%
-22%
-39%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Co-op #1
Co-op #2
Co-op #3
Co-op #4
Non-Coop (Outside Lists)
Co-op #5
Co-op #6
GROI Year 1
24. Audience – Warm Prospects
• Maximize your lapsed universe as a priority over outside lists.
• For most organizations, the long-term donor value of lapsed re-acquired names far
exceeds new joins.
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160
<$10
$10-14
$15-19
$20-24
$25-49
$50-99
New Join Re-Acquired
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26. Offer – Price Point
xxx
Background: The National Parks Conservation Association acquired most
donors through their acquisition program with a $15 starting ask. Donor-
level analysis showed a clear correlation between a lower first gift and
reduced five year retention.
Five year
retention
increases by 35%
for new joins at
the $25 first gift.
5.5%
8.7%
10.5%
13.4%
18.1%
22.9%
27.3%
Year 5
$1-9 $10-14 $15-19 $20-24 $25-49 $50-99 $100+
+35%
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27. Offer – Price Point
-34%
-26%
$15 Ask
$25 Ask
ROI after 1 year
Because a higher ask string typically equals fewer donors and potentially less revenue,
NPCA tested the control $15 ask against a $25 ask string.
At the end of one year, retained members were virtually the same in quantity, and net
revenue and ROI favored the $25 ask, allowing NPCA to ramp up the strategy.
Initial joins
and
retained
members
after 1 year
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2381
2019
560 546
$15 Ask $25 Ask
Initial joins
Retained
Initial joins
Retained
28. Offer – Premium
xxx
Background: NPCA has historically acquired donors with a premium at the
$15 level. In 2012, the organization conducted a test of a package with no
premium to assess if the long-term value and retention offset the initial
higher response rate.
0.90%
0.67%
Response Rate
Premium
No
Premium
Initial response
rate was 34%
higher for the
premium
package.
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29. 19.7%
24.3%
Year 2 Retention
No
PremiumPremium
Offer – Premium
• After two years, retention was 23% higher for the No Premium package.
• However, the initial volume of donors acquired with a premium was enough to
offset stronger LTV metrics from the no-premium group, leaving Year 1 net revenue
virtually tied, and Year 2 strongly favoring the Premium joins.
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4% higher for Premium joins 114% higher for Premium joins
Premium
No Premium
Year 1
Net Revenue
Year 2
Net Revenue
While retention is a key part of the equation, other elements must also be considered
in decision making.
$0
30. As with NPCA, WWF analysis has shown that higher initial gifts equate to
higher retention.
• Donors who join at $100 or more retain best, but there are not many of those!
• Sweet spot: The sweet spot is $33 or above, and that group has lifetime revenue 3 times over other joins.
Offer – Price Point
Goal: Increase those
who join over the
premium awarding ask
amount. Donors who
choose to give more
than the premium price
point retain better.
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-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
< $16
$16
$17 <= $26
$26 <= $52
$52 <= $100
$100+
Retention differences by first gift amount (<$16 baseline)
Retention Year 7 Retention Year 1
31. 13.9%
14.8%
9.4%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Retention Year 1 Retention Year 2 Retention Year 3 Retention Year 4 Retention Year 5 Retention Year 6
One Premium No Premium Maximum Number of Premiums (21)
• WWF analysis has shown that receiving a high number of premiums, and also certain “killer”
join premiums, equates to a lower retention rate as it impacts the type of member acquired.
• Members are tracked by join premium and retention over time.
• Over 7 years, people who joined and opted out of the premium retained the best.
• Those who received the maximum number of premiums over time showed the weakest
retention.
Offer – Premium
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32. Offer – Message
xxx
Background: A performing arts organization sees ebbs and flows in new
member acquisition directly related to ticket sales to popular
performances. There is a clear relationship between spikes in acquisition in
a popular performance year and declines in retention the following year.
FY13 = popular
performance
drives new joins
to record highs.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
FY12 FY13 FY14
DM Joins TM Joins Web Joins Email Joins
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33. Offer – Message
xxx
• Popular performance = retention spikes in 2013.
• New joins triggered by popular performance retain at weaker rates the following year.
• Recognizing this trend and increasing efforts to retain those offer-inspired joins is
key, although challenging.
51.7% 51.9%
64.4%
66.0%
29.8%
25.8%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
FY12 FY13 FY14
Overall Multi-Year First-Year
Overall, multi-year, and first-year retention
over a three year period.
Large event
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34. Offer – Message
xxx
Background: A conservation organization focused acquisition aggressively on an urgent
single-issue, single-species topic. While new joins increased, subsequent retention of those
joins was weak as later messaging covered a variety of topics and species.
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Year 1 Retention Year 2 Retention
Historical Average
Species Specific Package, Sample Year 1
Species Specific Package, Sample Year 2
• Species-specific package shows weaker retention compared to historical averages.
• Organization tested into a broader-focused package to increase long-term value,
retention and revenue.
35. Analysis
Understand
the impact
by channel
and the
appropriate
channel
usage
Test and
measure
retention by
offer:
message,
price point,
events,
benefits or
other key
variables.
Understand
and utilize key
demographics
and donor
attributes to
target your
audience
Monitor
improvement of key
metrics on an
ongoing basis
In summary:
Maximizing retention in acquisition…
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37. Laura Connors
Deputy Vice President for Membership
National Parks Conservation Association
lconnors@npca.org
Sharon Dreyfuss
Manager - Direct Response and Acquisition
World Wildlife Fund
sharon.dreyfuss@WWFUS.org
Kerri Kerr
Senior Vice President
Avalon Consulting Group
kerrik@avalonconsulting.net
Thank You!
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