Global warming and_the_kyoto_protocol_1_ - copy

Global Warming and the Kyoto
GUIDED BY Protocol
VIBHUTI VYAS
SUBMITTED BY
JIMMY
JAISW AL
ANKIT
GA WSHINDE
ABHISHEK

Global Warming: Review
 Greenhouse Gases are trace gases that
absorb infrared radiation in the atmosphere
 A certain level of greenhouse gases are
necessary to sustain life
 Some greenhouse gases include carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulfides

 Human activities are causing increased
carbon dioxide gases into the atmosphere
due to fossil fuel emissions
 Although CO2 is not one of the most
aggressive GHGs, the large amount of it in
our atmosphere is causing global surface
temperatures to rise
 CO2 accounts for 80% of global warming

 How do we know that global warming is
happening?
 In the past 1000 years, researchers have
found in Greenland and Antartic ice cores
that CO2 concentrations have been stable.
 In the past 400,000 years, CO2
concentrations have been below 300 ppmv.
 In the past 200 years, however,
concentrations have increased 30%.

Kyoto Protocol
 The United Nations organized a conference
in Kyoto, Japan to draft an agreement to
reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.
 They created the Kyoto Protocol that
entailed that “annex 1 countries”
(developed countries) reduce their
emissions to ten percent below 1990 levels

Kyoto Protocol: Emission Regulations
 Options to reduce emissions include:
– Improved technologies
– Nation-created sinks
– Tradable Permits for Emissions
 Unfortunately, these have some down sides:
– Sometimes it is less expensive to buy permits then
decrease emissions
– There are no credit for conservation, even though
existing forests contain 40% of terrestrial carbon.

Kyoto Problems
 Currently, 191 countries have ratified the
protocol but:
– United States, the number 1 emitter of CO2
gases has not joined
– Developing nations, such as China (#2 emitter)
and India (#5 emitter) are not required to
reduce or limit their emissions under the Kyoto
Protocol

The Kyoto Debate
 The United States has
not ratified the Protocol
because the Bush
Administration believed
it gave developing
countries an
manufacturing
advantage that would
hurt the U.S. economy.

The Kyoto Debate
 The rebuttal to the United States point of
view is that the developing countries don’t
have the financial resources to be able to
support the changes needed to decrease
emissions
 Also, per capita, China and India have very
low emissions and it is unfair to be judged
nationally.

Per Capita CO2 Emitters
Per Capita Emission

The United States Today
1: Atmospheric CO2 ppm
1: 395

1

1: 350 1

1

1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Page 1 Years 10:59 AM Fri, Dec 01, 2006
Untitled

 Thismodel shows that the emissions have increased to
about 395 ppm

EU Today
1: 355

1

1: 330 1

1

1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Page 1 Y ears 11:02 AM Fri, Dec 01, 2006
Untitled

 This model shows that the emissions have
increased to about 360 ppm

China Today
1: 345

1

1: 325 1

1

1

1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

 This model shows that the emissions have
increased to about 345 ppm

World Today
1: 405

1

1: 355 1

1

1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

 The world level of emission is reaching 400 ppm

Under the Kyoto Protocol
 Even if the rules were changed for the
Kyoto Protocol the results would be only
minimally different.
 The models that follow show the difference
between current levels of the United States,
the EU, China and India and level with a
ten percent reduction from their 1990
levels.

The United States
Current emissions  With a 10% reduction,
1: 395

the ppm changes from
1

1: 350 1

1
395 to about 365
1: 305
1
1:
375
10% reduction in 1990 emissions
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

1

1: 340
1

1

1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

EU
1:
345

1

1: 325

1

1

1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Page 1 Y ears 10:34 AM Fri, CO2 ppm 2006
1: Atmospheric Dec 01,

Untitled
1: 355 Current emissions

 With a 10% reduction,
1

1: 330

1

1

365 to 335 1: 305
1

1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

China
1:
345 Current emissions
 With a 10% reduction,
1

1: 325 1
1 345 to 325
1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1: 1991.00 325 2002.00
Untitled

1

1: 315
1

1

1

1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

World
Current emissions  With 10% reduction, the
1: 405

1
ppm changes from 405
1: 355

1
1

t0 380
1
1: Atmospheric CO2 ppm 10% reduction in 1990 emissions
1: 305 1:1980.00 405
1958.00 1969.00 1991.00 2002.00
Page 1 Years 11:05 AM Fri, Dec 01, 2006
Untitled

1

1: 355

1

1

1
1: 305
1958.00 1969.00 1980.00 1991.00 2002.00
Untitled

The Future
 These models only show until 2002 levels
which we have already reached.
 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the future
emissions will be reduced through lowering
carbon dioxide emissions and increasing
sinks

World Projection to 2150 with current
levels of CO2
1: 600

1

1
1: 450

1

1
1: 300
2002.00 2039.00 2076.00 2113.00 2150.00
Untitled

World Projection to 2150 with 10% reduction in CO2
emission (following Kyoto Protocol):
1: 600

1

1: 450
1

1

1
1: 300
2002.00 2039.00 2076.00 2113.00 2150.00
Untitled

Sinks
 Sinks are the utilization of the carbon-
absorbing abilities of forests
 There are many types of sinks, including
forests, grasslands and soils
 To verify as necessary in the Kyoto
Protocol can be expensive and difficult

Sinks, Con’t
 P. Smith states in
“Monitoring and
verification of soil carbon
changes under Article 3.4
of the Kyoto Protocol” that
“the Kyoto Protocol states
that sinks and sources of
carbon should be accounted
for `taking into account
uncertainties, transparency
in reporting, verifiability'.”

Sinks, Con’t
 “Managing carbon sinks by changing rotation length in European
forests” from Science Direct
 To achieve the largest eligible carbon sink mentioned in Article 3.4 of
the Kyoto Protocol, the rotation lengths need to be increased on areas
varying from 0.3 to 5.1 Mha sometimes causing 1–6% declines in
harvesting possibilities. The possible decreases in carbon stock
of soil indicates that reporting
the changes in the carbon
stocks of forests may require
also measuring soil carbon.

World Projection to 2150 with current CO2 levels (not
under Kyoto Protocol) and manmade sink through
reforestation of 1 gigaton/year
1: 600

1

1: 450
1

1

1
1: 300
2002.00 2039.00 2076.00 2113.00 2150.00
Untitled

World Projection to 2150 with 10% reduction in CO2 levels
(under Kyoto Protocol) and manmade sink through
reforestation of 1 gigaton/year
1: 600

1: 450 1

1

1

1
1: 300
2002.00 2039.00 2076.00 2113.00 2150.00
Untitled

So what does this mean?
 Even if the Kyoto Protocol was written more
strictly, making every nation reduce
emissions by 10%, including developed and
developing nations, that would not be
enough.
 More action must be taken, such as
decreased emission limits and more carbon
sinks, to have any significant impact on
slowing the increase of atmospheric CO2
emissions.

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