4. In the past, man made plans
out of rocks and tree limbs.
But in time they found
themselves out on a limb with
heavy rocks.
THE
PAST
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Then came the printing press
followed by Radio and TV
And then there was very new
TV called Internet.
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Finally, there was a Great
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Light! And the client cried out:
5. The Brand Experience
“The story you are about
to see is true …”
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29. Let’s talk about what gets in the
way of successful Strategic
Planning
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30. What Do We Need to Succeed in the
Present
7 Characteristics of Good Strategic
Leaders
6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
5 Cognitive Biases To Avoid
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31. Cognitive Biases that Get in the Way
Cognitive Biases that Get in the Way
The rationality of decision-making is bound by
one’s cognitive capabilities.
When managers make decisions in uncertain situations, they
tend to fall back on certain rules of thumb – Heuristics.
Sometimes these rules lead to severe errors, called
cognitive biases.
Kahneman* encourages a better understanding of these
heuristics and the biases to which they lead.
* He
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published his main finding in a 1982 book, Judgment Under Uncertainty, Heuristics and Biases
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32. Cognitive Biases that Get in the Way
Cognitive Biases that Get in the Way
Escalating commitment occurs when decision makers,
having committed significant resources to a project,
commit even more despite feedback that tells them the
project is failing.
The use of simple analogies to make sense out of a
complex problem is called reasoning analogy, which
may be flawed by invalid reasoning.
Generalizing from a small sample or a single vivid
anecdote is called representativeness.
The illusion of control is the tendency to overestimate
one’s ability to control events.
Prior hypothesis bias refers to making decisions
based on a belief, even when evidence proves that the
belief is incorrect.
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33. 2 Techniques for Improving Decision Making
2 Techniques for Improving Decision Making
Devil’s advocacy requires the generation of a
plan, as well as a critical analysis of that plan.
Dialectic inquiry requires the generation of a
plan and a counter-plan that reflects plausible
but conflicting courses of action.
Strategic managers listen to a debate between
advocates of the plan and counter-plan and then
decide which will lead to higher performance.
This approach may reveal problems with
definitions, recommended courses of action, and
assumptions of both plans.
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34. 7 Characteristics of Good Strategic Leaders
1) Vision, Eloquence, and Consistency
a) A strong leader gives an organization a sense of direction.
b) Examples: Winston Churchill, Martin Luther King, Sam Walton
2) Articulation of a Business Model
a) Knowing how the various strategies that the company pursues
fit together.
b) Examples: Michael Dell (Dell, Inc.), Steve Jobs (Apple)
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35. 7 Characteristics of Good Strategic Leaders
3) Commitment
a) A strong leader demonstrates his or her commitment to a
vision and business model with action and words.
b) Example: Jack Welch (General Electric)
3) Being Well Informed
a) Effective leaders develop a network of formal and informal
sources who to keep them well informed about what is going
on within their company.
b) Example: Jim Donald (Starbucks)
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36. 7 Characteristics of Good Strategic Leaders
5) Willingness to Delegate and Empower
a) Avoids being overloaded with responsibilities.
b) Understands that delegation is a good motivational tool.
5) The Astute Use of Power
a) Power comes from control over resources that are important
to the organization: budgets, capital, positions, information,
and knowledge.
b) Politically astute managers use these resources to critically
place allies who can help them attain their strategic
objectives.
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37. 7 Characteristics of Good Strategic Leaders
7) Emotional Intelligence
a) Self-awareness — the ability to understand one’s own
moods, emotions, and drives.
b) Self-regulation — the ability to control or redirect disruptive
impulses or moods.
c) Motivation — a passion for work that goes beyond money or
status.
d) Empathy — the ability to understand the feelings and
viewpoints of peers and subordinates.
e) Social skills — friendliness with a purpose.
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39. 6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
1. Anticipate
When most of the focus is
on what’s directly ahead
periphal vision is
deminished.
To anticipate well, you must:
Lack of “peripheral vision”
can leave your clients
vulnerable to rivals who
detect and act on
ambiguous signals.
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Look for game-changing
information at the periphery
of the client’s industry
Search beyond the current
boundaries of their business
Build wide external networks
to help you scan the horizon
better
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40. 6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
2. Think Critically
Stickng close to “conventional
wisdom” opens you up to fewer
raised eyebrows and second
guessing.
But if you swallow every
management fad, herdlike
belief, and safe opinion at face
value, your client loses all
competitive advantage.
To master this skill you must
force yourself to:
Reframe problems to get to the
bottom of things, in terms of root
causes
Challenge current beliefs and
mindsets, including your own
Uncover hypocrisy, manipulation,
and bias in organizational
decisions
Critical thinkers question
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41. 6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
3. Learn
As your business grows,
honest feedback is harder and
harder to come by. You have
to do what you can to keep it
coming.
This is crucial because success
and especially failure are
valuable sources of
organizational learning.
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Here's what you need to do:
Encourage and exemplify honest,
rigorous debriefs to extract
lessons
Shift course quickly if you realize
you're off track
Celebrate both success and (wellintentioned) failures that provide
insight
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42. 6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
4. Interpret
Ambiguity is unsettling.
Faced with ambiguity, the
temptation is to reach for a fast
(and potentially wrongheaded)
solution.
To get good at this, you have
to:
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Seek patterns in multiple sources
of data
A good strategic leader holds
steady, synthesizing information
from many sources before
developing a viewpoint.
Encourage others to do the same
Question prevailing assumptions
and test multiple hypotheses
simultaneously
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43. 6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
5. Align
To pull that off, you need to:
Total consensus is rare.
Understand what drives other
people's agendas, including what
remains hidden
Bring tough issues to the surface,
even when it's uncomfortable
Assess risk tolerance and follow
through to build the necessary
support
A strategic leader must
a) foster open dialogue
b) build trust
c) and engage key stakeholders
Especially when views diverge.
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44. 6 Habits of Strategic Thinkers
6. Decide
To do that well, you have to:
Many leaders fall prey to “analysis
paralysis.”
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Carefully frame the decision to get
to the crux of the matter
Balance speed, rigor, quality and
agility. Leave perfection to higher
powers
You have to develop processes and
enforce them, so that you arrive at
a “good enough” position.
Take a stand even with incomplete
information and amid diverse views
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46. When do you get your best
ideas?
Some of you might answer:
“when I least expect it.”
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This is a special
form of intuition
I get a flash of insight.
Things come together in my mind.
I connect the dots.
I say: "Aha! I see what to do."
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47. A Special Form of Intuition
gives you an idea of what
action to take.
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48. 3 Kinds of Strategic Ideas Apply to
Human Achievement
Strategic analysis, where you study the situation
you face.
Strategic intuition, where you know what to do.
Strategic planning, where you work out the details
of how to do it.
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49. Strategic Intuition
To succeed in the modern
world you need:
creative thinking, or
entrepreneurial thinking, or
innovative thinking, or
strategic thinking
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These happen through flashes
of insight called
Strategic Intuition
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50. Brain Science Tells Us There Are 3 Kinds
of Intuition
Ordinary.
Expert.
Strategic.
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52. Expert Intuition
Expert intuition is a
snap judgment when
you instantly recognize
something familiar.
Similar to “Japanese telepathy”
called ishin denshin 腹を割って通
信
Such as the way a basketball
player knows where the ball will
go from the arc and speed of the
opponent's throw.
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53. A Clear, Slow Thought
Strategic intuition (kongen)
is not a vague feeling, like
ordinary intuition.
Strategic intuition is a clear
thought.
And it's not fast, like expert
intuition.
It's slow..
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54. Brain Science
Strategic Intuition …
It doesn't happen in
familiar situations,
like a basketball
game.
Strategic intuition
works in new
situations.
That's when you
need it most.
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55. When Strategic Intuition is
Ignored
Google offered to sell
their patent to
AltaVista.
The people who ran
AltaVista were not
receptive to outside
technology.
They had a “not
invented here”
attitude.
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56. When Strategic Intuition is
Followed
Strategic Intuition is the
opposite of “not invented
here”,
It is the attitude of:
“take from everywhere”.
Is this the future of business?
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57. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Over the past ten years, William Duggan conducted pioneering research on strategic
intuition and for the past three years has taught a popular course at Columbia
Business School on the subject.
He now gives us this eye-opening book that shows how strategic intuition lies at the
heart of great achievements throughout human history: [click to order]
•the scientific and computer revolutions,
•women's suffrage,
•the civil rights movement,
•modern art,
•microfinance in poor countries.
Considering the achievements of people and organizations, from Bill Gates to Google,
Copernicus to Martin Luther King, Picasso to Patton, you'll never think the same way
about strategy again.
This new book by William Duggan is the first full treatment of strategic intuition. It's
the missing piece of the strategy puzzle that makes essential reading for anyone
interested in achieving more in any field of human endeavor.
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58. Here’s short film made
using the intuitive approach
“take from everywhere”
(click – looks good on the full screen)
59. THANK
YOU
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Robert J. Mancuso
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