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Organisational Strategy
    Workshop, Oct 2012

 Ross Thompson BA (Lancaster),
 DPM, MBA (Manchester) ACIS ,
      Chartered Secretary
ross.thompson@northampton.ac.uk
                                  1
Contents

• Introductions
• Assignment!
• SESSION 1 – What is strategy?
• SESSION 2 – Internal Analysis
• SESSION 3 – Real Options in strategy
• SESSION 4 – Implementation issues
                                         2
Your tutor
• Career
   • 17 Years business experience to Director level in a variety
     of marketing, finance and management roles.
   • Many consulting assignment roles; former Director of a
     consultancy.
   • MBA from Manchester Business School.
   • Chartered Secretary.
   • Research interests in: strategy, graduate employability and
      money laundering.


                                                                   3
How we work

• Materials available on STRM002
  website on Nile.
  – Reading
  – Exercises
  – Links
  – etc.
  – And assignment details         4
Reading
• 2 key books:
 Johnson, G., Scholes,
  K. and Whittington, R.
  (2009) Exploring
  Corporate Strategy,
  8th ed., PH
 Grant, R., (2010)
  Contemporary
  Strategy Analysis, 7th   5

  ed., Wiley
Reading

• Other key reading detailed in assignment
  notes and workshop guide.
• The Blackwell Encyclopaedia of Strategic
  Management is also useful as is the
  website:
  – Valuebasedmanagement.net


                                             6
Session 1 – What is Strategy

• Reading:
  – J and S, ch 1
  – Grant ch 1
  – Porter, M. (1996) What is strategy? ,
    HBR, Nov-Dec (on web)


                                            7
Session 1 - Exercise
• Look at the two contrasting viewpoints of
  strategy by Porter and Barney (clips).

      Now formulate your own view of strategy




                                                8
Strategy
• My preferred approach is to consider it a process
  comprising the steps of:
   1. Objective setting.
   2. Internal firm analysis.
   3. Industry and competitor analysis.
   4. Establishing a competitive position, e.g., price
      leadership or differentiation.
   5. Choosing some strategic options. Planning.
   6. Operationalising strategy. nb strategy is the setting
      operations is the doing
   7. Evaluation and implementation.                          9
Strategy

• Note differences between:
  – Corporate Strategy – deciding which
    businesses/product groups to launch,
    divest, grow etc.
  – Business Strategy – deciding how to
    develop those business or strategic
    business groups (SBUs).
                                           10
Session 2 – Internal analysis
• Resource School suggests:
   – Competitive Advantage (CA) accrues from developing
     internal capabilities or competencies; in other words:
      • “find what you are good at and maximise the
        capability”
      • Works in corporate and personal life
• Often known as the Inside Out approach compared to the
  Outside in approach espoused by Porter et al who stress
  importance of external/economic factors.


                                                         11
Session 2 – Internal analysis
• Reading
  – J and S ch 3
  – Grant chs 5/6
  – Barney, J. (1991) Firm resources and sustained
    competitive advantage, Journal of Management, 17
  – Grant, R. (1991) The resource based theory of
    competitive advantage, CMR, Spring
  – Hamel. G. and Prahalad, C. (1990) Core Competences of
    the organisation, HBR, 68 (on web)
  – Kay, J. (1993) Foundations of Corporate Success, OUP
                                                           12
  – Porter, M.E. (1996) What is Strategy?, HBR, Nov-Dec
    (on web)
Session 2 – Internal analysis
• Linked to concept of economic profit and economic value
http://www.sternstewart.com/


• economic profit = accounting profit – the opportunity cost
  of capital (debt + equity)
• or = PAT – (capital employed x WACC)
   – where:
       • pat = profit after tax (but before interest)
       • wacc = weighted average cost of capital

                                                               13
Session 2 – Internal analysis

• So challenge is to find:


• those capabilities, deriving from resources at a
  firm’s disposal that produce returns in excess of
  the cost of capital. This is the concept of
  economic rent.




                                                      14
Session 2 – Internal analysis

• Objective is to find rent generating
  resources, assets and capabilities.
• Rent is associated with Ricardo the
  economist who found that certain types of
  land yielded above average agricultural
  returns. Analogous to modern day premier
  retail locations.
• Makes sense to hunt and cultivate
  these resources as they offer
                                          15


  Competitive advantage (CA).
Session 2 – Internal analysis
Assets/*resources                         Competences   CA
Tangible
intangible



         * In accounting terms = assets




                                                             16
Strategic Capability/Resources
               Terminology

Threshold     Resources needed to meet customers’ minimum
              requirements. Needed to continue to exist
resources
Threshold     Activities and processes needed to meet
              customers’ minimum requirements. Needed to
competences   continue to exist

Unique        Resources underpinning competitive
              advantage. Difficult for competitors to imitate
resources     or obtain.

Core          Activities underpinning competitive
              advantage. Difficult for competitors to imitate
competences   or obtain
                                                            17
Core Competences (Hamel and Prahalad,
                  1990)
• (Related to Resource School/RBV)
• Derives from learning about what you (firm) can do well.
• Must be able to extend this knowledge though, e.g.,
  beyond firm departments, into new products and SBUs.
• Trick again is configuring these resources or competences
  which might be:
   – skills
   – routines
   – assets
                                                              18
   – alliances/relationships
• 3 tests of Core Competences
   1. Must give access to markets - marketable
   2. Must generate customer benefits – be worth something
   3. Must hard to imitate – competitors should not be able to copy
• therefore need to be specific; marketing is not a CC! branding
                                                                   19
  might be
Note imitation reduction caused by:

     VALUABLE
                       unique locations e.g. shops
       RARE
                       path dependencies- intricacies in
  NON IMITABLE         operations

NOT SUBSTITUTABLE      causal ambiguity – hard to u/stand
                       operating systems!

                       Social complexity – e.g. relies of
                       large and complex network of staff,
                       suppliers etc.

Barney’s VRIN€ MODEL
                                                     20
Implications
• Best not to outsource core competences/rent generating
  resources
• can outsource non core areas


• core business (product grouping) is not the same as core
  competence
• possible to stretch core competences over other
  industries e.g. Universities to hotels which is dome by
  several such as Manchester.

                                                            21
Criticisms of RBV
• Fails to take account of effect of knowledge management
  techniques.
• Fails to account for role of managers.
• Insufficiently detailed.
• Fails to account for developing resources.
• Cannot act in exclusion to the outside in school.
• Fails to take account of economies of learning and the
  effect of the experience curve in CA


                                                            22
Internal Analysis : Value Chain
                                                                                        – Identifies strategically
         Firm infrastructure: systems, procedures, administration,                        relevant activities.
         communication.
                                                                                        – if largely pursuing




                                                                                MA
SUPPOR




       HRM: recruitment and retention, training, skills, pay policy,                      differentiation




                                                                                 RG I
       industrial relations, productivity.                                                strategy, look to add
                                                                                          quality / USPs in each
       Technology (including IT): patents, sophistication, choices,




                                                                                  N
                                                                                          area.
T




       cost, technical skills.
                                                                                        – if pursuing cost
       Procurement: bargaining power over suppliers.                                      leadership, look to cut
                                                                                          costs in each area
        Inbound       Operating Outboun               Marketing Service
        logistics     :            d                  :         :                               Can of course
 P R I M A RY




        :             • processing logistics:
                                                                                                attempt to do both,




                                                                                  IN
                                                      •sales         •customer
        •sourcing                     •deliveries                    care                       as in JIT / TQM




                                                                                 RG
                      •manu-                          •promotion
        raw           facture                                        •warranty                  systems.
        materials                     •distribution   •pricing




                                                                                MA
                      •make or                                       •dealers
        •ware-        buy
                                      •lead times     •advertising                      – Value is the amount
 Y




        housing                                                                           buyers are willing to
                      •assembly                       •branding
                                                      •reputation                         pay for product or 23
                                                      •packaging                          service
      NB Not all areas of the Value Chain will be equally                                       profits occur when
      important.                                                                                value exceeds cost.
Activity System
                                                                  (Porter, 1996)
                                                                  Example




Porter conceived in similar theory to the RBV when he outlined the activity system.
It is a map of all the key operating procedures in a firm showing the relationships.
                                                                                   24
The more intricate these are, the more difficult it is to copy.
Session 2 - Exercise

1. Using the Manchester United case material use the
   value chain to identify Manchester United’s core
   competencies.
2. How might these strengthened?




                                                       25
Session 3 – Real Options
• Reading-


  – Luehrman, T. (1998) Investment Opportunities as
    Real options, HBR, 76 (4)
  – Luehrman, T. (1998) Strategy as a portfolio of real
    options, HBR, 76 (5) YOU MUST READ THIS
  – BOTH AVAILABLE ON THE WEB


  – There is also a short section in Grant and J and S.
                                                          26
  – www.real-options.com/resources_links.htm
Introduction to real options
(also called management or
     strategic options)
We all have options:

•Getting married?!!
•Having children
•Study or work?

And businesses have options:

•Delay/stall
•Expand
•Switch resources              27
•New products
•New markets etc
Introduction: Real options V Financial
                    options




Real Options                                      Financial Options
Option (not requirement) to make a business choice/ option to buy
(call) or sell (put) a derivative or non-real asset e.g. invest in a project,
product etc. at a given time (European) or in a period (American)
Therefore views business a series of call options



    SO REAL OPTIONS ARE OPTIONS WITHIN OPTIONS/STRATEGIES
                                                        28
          EG ONE PARTICULAY INVESTMENT (OPTION) MAY
               HAVE HIDDEN OPTIONS EG TO DELAY.
Introduction to real options
• Differ from financial options (derivatives) as they involve
  real assets e.g. launching a new product/ pursuing a new
  strategy.
• Becoming increasingly important in “choppy” and innovative
  economic times e.g. internet and digitisation(now):
   – strategies increasingly have to be altered;
   – businesses need to be more adroit/responsive;
   – and therefore need to constantly appraise ie,value, their
     options.
• Business strategies with hidden – real – options maybe
  therefore valuable as they reduce risk.


                                                                 29
Types of Options in Business
                       STRATEGY



Acquire                                      R and D
assets


                                             NPD
Buy/merge
with
Competitors                                  Change
                                             inputs
Acquire new                                  mix 30
technology
                      Cost savings
Types and uses of real options

1, Delay options
Conventional NPV/DCF techniques assume
a now or never and linear approach to investment. Frequently
   though, investment can be delayed and this decision may
   affect chances of success/profitability, e.g., as better
   information comes on board.




                                                           31
Types and uses of real options

1, Delay options cond
•Most frequent in new product development situations where
the competition is locked out ,e.g., via entry barriers such
as patents and when the market is uncertain.


•Example:
   – A drug firm has a patent on a new drug and delays
     investment until the costs of borrowing come down thus
     enhancing profitability.

                                                               32
Types and uses of real options

2, Abandonment options
•Again the npv approach assumes continuity throughout product life. But
in reality there may be the scope to abandon the project if say costs are
prohibitive. This will then impact project profitability.


•Example/Exercise
•A firm spends £50 000 on new project that yields cash flows of £15,000
per year for 5 years. If it is hit with a further, unplanned costs of £20
000 in year 1 the project is now unprofitable and it would make sense to
abandon the project – if possible – as less money will be lost.
•Demonstrate this advantage assuming a cost of capital of 10%.



                                                                       33
Types and uses of real options

3, Flexibility options
•In many commercial organisations it may be possible to
alter:
   – input mixes e.g. supplies (with new cost);
   – customer/channel choices;
   – Business location;
   – Etc.
•All of which will impact profitability.

                                                          34
Valuing real options- Black Scholes
                 (Luehrman)
• The Black Scholes method is the way of calculating financial
  option values (calls).
• Many academics have used variants of this approach to
  value real options.
• This means using quite tricky mathematics – and this may
  explain why many strategists shy away from studying real
  options (Grant, 2010).
• FOR THIS MODULE DO NOT WORRY ABOUT
  CALCULATIONS – INSTEAD UNDERSTAND WHAT
  REAL OPTIONS ARE, WHY THEY MAY BE VALUBLE
  AND HOW TO SPOT THEM.
                                                             35
Valuing real options- Black Scholes
                   (Luehrman)
  Black Scholes elements     Real Option equivalents
• Stock Price                • Present Value of the project
                               (PV S) S
• Exercise Price
                             • Project cost (PV C) X
• Time to expiry
                             • Length of term(t) t
• Risk free rate
                             • Time Value of Money rf
• Variance of returns
                             • Project risk (SD)   SD per year


   These 5 variables can then be simplified further into:
                                                      36
   Value to cost ratio:         PV S/PV C or S/X
   Volatility:                  SD x √ t .
Valuing real options- Black Scholes
• Calculating volatility tricky – how to:
   – Make an estimate e.g. indexes have an SD of about
     20%, manufacturing stocks are about 40%.
   – Use historical data on investment returns.
   – Use implied volatility based on volatility of financial
     options in similar classes of businesses.




                                                               37
Once we have calculated value to cost and volatility we can plot
 them on an Option Space Grid to give us indications of what we
should do(Luehrman). You can do this without calculations




                                                             38
Using the grid
Note option value increases as we move right and down:



                                        Value to Cost




                           VALUE
   Volatility
                                                         39
Real Options – the verdict

Advantages                       Disadvantages
• Richer than npv – factors      •   Complicated maths.
  in more elements to            •   Some figures might be hard to
  investment decisions.              identify e.g. cost of capital.
                                 •   Hard to get precise figures e.g.
• In particular recognises the       for volatility; therefore it is a
  ability to delay projects.         good idea to carryout sensitivity
                                     analysis, e.g., change volatility
• Suitable in today’s choppy         figures.
  economic climate.              •   Proxies e.g. suitable financial
                                     options may be hard to identify.
• Becoming more popular.
                                 •   Can be hard to spot embedded
• Many uses – see earlier            options.
  examples.
                                                                    40
Session 3 -Exercise

For a company that you are familiar with, reflect upon
some of the strategies available to develop the corporate.

1.Assess whether or nor these strategies include: delay,
abandonment or flexibility options.
2.Use the options grid to assess when some of these
strategies should be enacted.




                                                           41
Session 4 – Implementation of strategy
• For this session we will focus upon implementing strategy
  and preventing it from wandering off course (strategic
  drift)




                                                              42
Session 4 - reading
•   Grant ch 2 and 17
•   J and S ch 10, 12
•   Kaplan, R. and Norton, D. (1992) Balanced scorecard – Measures that drive
    Performance, HBR, April-May (on the web; this is the first of five articles published
    by the authors in the HBR)
•   Rumelt, R (2011) Good Strategy, Bad Strategy, Random House
•   http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategys_strategist_An_interview_with_Richard_Rume
     (register first - excellent commentary on Rumelt)
•   http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/dick.rumelt/Docs/Papers/EVAL2.pdf
     – (Rumelt criteria)
•   See also:
     – 2gc.com
          • For Balanced scorecard resources esp. for 3 rd generation
                                                                               43
     – scorecardshttp://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/AbouttheBalancedS
       corecard/tabid/55/Default.aspx
o
Session 4 - Implementation

• This session focuses upon ensuring your
  strategy – whatever it is – does not
  wander of course. To do this we must
  measure and evaluate it.
• We shall focus upon:
  – The Balanced Scorecard (Kaplan
    and Norton)
  – Rumelt’s criteria                       44
The BALANCED SCORECARD
                                                              How do we look to
                             Financial perspective            shareholders?
How do customers
see us?                      GOALS   MEASURES

                                                                Internal business
Customer perspective                                            perspective
GOALS      MEASURES                                             GOALS            MEASURES

                             Innovation and
                             learning perspective

                             GOALS   MEASURES
                                                                                  What must we
                                                                                      excel at?
        Can we continue to
        improve and create
                    value?
                                                                                                         45
                                        Source: The Balanced Scorecard - Measures That Drive Performance.
                                             Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton. Harvard Business Review.
                                                                               Jan/Feb 1992. Pages 71 - 79.
Balanced Scorecard

• The key to the BSC is to:
• Select performance dimensions (originally
  Kaplan and Norton envisaged 4 – but you can
  add/amend)
• In each dimension you need 2-5 metrics or
  measures to measure each dimension.
• Key is to design accurate, realistic and practical
  measures that the firm can operationalise.
                                                       46
Balanced Scorecard

• Key is to balance the measures/metrics:
  1. Qualitative and quantitative
  2. Leading (forward looking) or lagging
     (looking at the past – e.g. as in
     accounting reports)
  3. Internal (firm) or external (industry)


  REMEMBER YOU TAILOR DIMENSIONS              47
    AROUND THE FIRM AND CONTEXT
Balanced Scorecard
• It is important that:
• There are clear linkages between dimensions and
  the metrics in each dimensions: it is normal to
  establish goals in each dimensions and then find
  matching metrics.
• The BSC cascades throughout the organisations:
  corporate level; business/SBU level; department
  level; personal level via appraisal systems.
• The BSC is united under an overarching aim or
  mission. See the 2gc.com website and look at the
  material under 3rd generation scorecards.

                                                     48
FOR EACH DIMENSION EG FINANACIAL
STIPULATE GOALS AND METRICS AND ENSURE LINKAGE




                                                 49
Learning & Growth Perspective:
Possible Measures


              Revenues from new products
                  R&D resources & costs
                  Investment in training
          Suggested improvements per employee
                  Employee age profile
                Employee turnover rates
            % full-time permanent employees
              Staff flexibility / job coverage
                      Staff surveys              50
Financial Perspective:
Possible Measures
          Revenues per employee
                Cost ratios
               Market value
         Value added per employee
           Return on net assets
          Revenues / total assets
               Profit margin
          Contribution / revenue
                Cash flow           51
Customer Perspective:
Possible Measures

                   Market share
                   # customers
           Sales closed / sales contacts
              Customer loyalty index
     Average duration of customer relationship
          Service expense per customer
           Customers lost / churn ratio
             Customer survey ratings
                                                 52
Internal Business Process Perspective:
Possible Measures


                    Administrative expense
                     On-time delivery %
 Lead time (product development, order to delivery, suppliers)
                  Productivity improvement
                   Decision turnaround time
     Service expense per customer IT capacity & expense
                          Error rates
                                                                 53
             Environmental impact of product use
Strategy Review, Evaluation,
         & Control
                       Consistency


  Rumelt’s             Consonance
  4 Criteria
                        Feasibility


                        Advantage
                                      54
Strategy Review, Evaluation,
         & Control
Consistency

• Strategy should not present inconsistent goals & policies




                                                              55
Strategy Review, Evaluation,
         & Control
Consonance

• Need for strategies to examine sets of trends




                                                  56
Strategy Review, Evaluation,
          & Control
Feasibility

• Neither overtax resources or create unsolvable sub-
  problems




                                                        57
Strategy Review,
     Evaluation, & Control
Advantage

• Creation or maintenance of competitive advantage




                                                     58
Session 4 - Exercise

Design a Balanced Scorecard for Manchester United;
use the original four dimensions and devise 2-3
metrics for each one. Be prepared to justify your
choices.




                                                     59

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  • 1. Organisational Strategy Workshop, Oct 2012 Ross Thompson BA (Lancaster), DPM, MBA (Manchester) ACIS , Chartered Secretary ross.thompson@northampton.ac.uk 1
  • 2. Contents • Introductions • Assignment! • SESSION 1 – What is strategy? • SESSION 2 – Internal Analysis • SESSION 3 – Real Options in strategy • SESSION 4 – Implementation issues 2
  • 3. Your tutor • Career • 17 Years business experience to Director level in a variety of marketing, finance and management roles. • Many consulting assignment roles; former Director of a consultancy. • MBA from Manchester Business School. • Chartered Secretary. • Research interests in: strategy, graduate employability and money laundering. 3
  • 4. How we work • Materials available on STRM002 website on Nile. – Reading – Exercises – Links – etc. – And assignment details 4
  • 5. Reading • 2 key books:  Johnson, G., Scholes, K. and Whittington, R. (2009) Exploring Corporate Strategy, 8th ed., PH  Grant, R., (2010) Contemporary Strategy Analysis, 7th 5 ed., Wiley
  • 6. Reading • Other key reading detailed in assignment notes and workshop guide. • The Blackwell Encyclopaedia of Strategic Management is also useful as is the website: – Valuebasedmanagement.net 6
  • 7. Session 1 – What is Strategy • Reading: – J and S, ch 1 – Grant ch 1 – Porter, M. (1996) What is strategy? , HBR, Nov-Dec (on web) 7
  • 8. Session 1 - Exercise • Look at the two contrasting viewpoints of strategy by Porter and Barney (clips). Now formulate your own view of strategy 8
  • 9. Strategy • My preferred approach is to consider it a process comprising the steps of: 1. Objective setting. 2. Internal firm analysis. 3. Industry and competitor analysis. 4. Establishing a competitive position, e.g., price leadership or differentiation. 5. Choosing some strategic options. Planning. 6. Operationalising strategy. nb strategy is the setting operations is the doing 7. Evaluation and implementation. 9
  • 10. Strategy • Note differences between: – Corporate Strategy – deciding which businesses/product groups to launch, divest, grow etc. – Business Strategy – deciding how to develop those business or strategic business groups (SBUs). 10
  • 11. Session 2 – Internal analysis • Resource School suggests: – Competitive Advantage (CA) accrues from developing internal capabilities or competencies; in other words: • “find what you are good at and maximise the capability” • Works in corporate and personal life • Often known as the Inside Out approach compared to the Outside in approach espoused by Porter et al who stress importance of external/economic factors. 11
  • 12. Session 2 – Internal analysis • Reading – J and S ch 3 – Grant chs 5/6 – Barney, J. (1991) Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage, Journal of Management, 17 – Grant, R. (1991) The resource based theory of competitive advantage, CMR, Spring – Hamel. G. and Prahalad, C. (1990) Core Competences of the organisation, HBR, 68 (on web) – Kay, J. (1993) Foundations of Corporate Success, OUP 12 – Porter, M.E. (1996) What is Strategy?, HBR, Nov-Dec (on web)
  • 13. Session 2 – Internal analysis • Linked to concept of economic profit and economic value http://www.sternstewart.com/ • economic profit = accounting profit – the opportunity cost of capital (debt + equity) • or = PAT – (capital employed x WACC) – where: • pat = profit after tax (but before interest) • wacc = weighted average cost of capital 13
  • 14. Session 2 – Internal analysis • So challenge is to find: • those capabilities, deriving from resources at a firm’s disposal that produce returns in excess of the cost of capital. This is the concept of economic rent. 14
  • 15. Session 2 – Internal analysis • Objective is to find rent generating resources, assets and capabilities. • Rent is associated with Ricardo the economist who found that certain types of land yielded above average agricultural returns. Analogous to modern day premier retail locations. • Makes sense to hunt and cultivate these resources as they offer 15 Competitive advantage (CA).
  • 16. Session 2 – Internal analysis Assets/*resources Competences CA Tangible intangible * In accounting terms = assets 16
  • 17. Strategic Capability/Resources Terminology Threshold Resources needed to meet customers’ minimum requirements. Needed to continue to exist resources Threshold Activities and processes needed to meet customers’ minimum requirements. Needed to competences continue to exist Unique Resources underpinning competitive advantage. Difficult for competitors to imitate resources or obtain. Core Activities underpinning competitive advantage. Difficult for competitors to imitate competences or obtain 17
  • 18. Core Competences (Hamel and Prahalad, 1990) • (Related to Resource School/RBV) • Derives from learning about what you (firm) can do well. • Must be able to extend this knowledge though, e.g., beyond firm departments, into new products and SBUs. • Trick again is configuring these resources or competences which might be: – skills – routines – assets 18 – alliances/relationships
  • 19. • 3 tests of Core Competences 1. Must give access to markets - marketable 2. Must generate customer benefits – be worth something 3. Must hard to imitate – competitors should not be able to copy • therefore need to be specific; marketing is not a CC! branding 19 might be
  • 20. Note imitation reduction caused by: VALUABLE unique locations e.g. shops RARE path dependencies- intricacies in NON IMITABLE operations NOT SUBSTITUTABLE causal ambiguity – hard to u/stand operating systems! Social complexity – e.g. relies of large and complex network of staff, suppliers etc. Barney’s VRIN€ MODEL 20
  • 21. Implications • Best not to outsource core competences/rent generating resources • can outsource non core areas • core business (product grouping) is not the same as core competence • possible to stretch core competences over other industries e.g. Universities to hotels which is dome by several such as Manchester. 21
  • 22. Criticisms of RBV • Fails to take account of effect of knowledge management techniques. • Fails to account for role of managers. • Insufficiently detailed. • Fails to account for developing resources. • Cannot act in exclusion to the outside in school. • Fails to take account of economies of learning and the effect of the experience curve in CA 22
  • 23. Internal Analysis : Value Chain – Identifies strategically Firm infrastructure: systems, procedures, administration, relevant activities. communication. – if largely pursuing MA SUPPOR HRM: recruitment and retention, training, skills, pay policy, differentiation RG I industrial relations, productivity. strategy, look to add quality / USPs in each Technology (including IT): patents, sophistication, choices, N area. T cost, technical skills. – if pursuing cost Procurement: bargaining power over suppliers. leadership, look to cut costs in each area Inbound Operating Outboun Marketing Service logistics : d : : Can of course P R I M A RY : • processing logistics: attempt to do both, IN •sales •customer •sourcing •deliveries care as in JIT / TQM RG •manu- •promotion raw facture •warranty systems. materials •distribution •pricing MA •make or •dealers •ware- buy •lead times •advertising – Value is the amount Y housing buyers are willing to •assembly •branding •reputation pay for product or 23 •packaging service NB Not all areas of the Value Chain will be equally profits occur when important. value exceeds cost.
  • 24. Activity System (Porter, 1996) Example Porter conceived in similar theory to the RBV when he outlined the activity system. It is a map of all the key operating procedures in a firm showing the relationships. 24 The more intricate these are, the more difficult it is to copy.
  • 25. Session 2 - Exercise 1. Using the Manchester United case material use the value chain to identify Manchester United’s core competencies. 2. How might these strengthened? 25
  • 26. Session 3 – Real Options • Reading- – Luehrman, T. (1998) Investment Opportunities as Real options, HBR, 76 (4) – Luehrman, T. (1998) Strategy as a portfolio of real options, HBR, 76 (5) YOU MUST READ THIS – BOTH AVAILABLE ON THE WEB – There is also a short section in Grant and J and S. 26 – www.real-options.com/resources_links.htm
  • 27. Introduction to real options (also called management or strategic options) We all have options: •Getting married?!! •Having children •Study or work? And businesses have options: •Delay/stall •Expand •Switch resources 27 •New products •New markets etc
  • 28. Introduction: Real options V Financial options Real Options Financial Options Option (not requirement) to make a business choice/ option to buy (call) or sell (put) a derivative or non-real asset e.g. invest in a project, product etc. at a given time (European) or in a period (American) Therefore views business a series of call options SO REAL OPTIONS ARE OPTIONS WITHIN OPTIONS/STRATEGIES 28 EG ONE PARTICULAY INVESTMENT (OPTION) MAY HAVE HIDDEN OPTIONS EG TO DELAY.
  • 29. Introduction to real options • Differ from financial options (derivatives) as they involve real assets e.g. launching a new product/ pursuing a new strategy. • Becoming increasingly important in “choppy” and innovative economic times e.g. internet and digitisation(now): – strategies increasingly have to be altered; – businesses need to be more adroit/responsive; – and therefore need to constantly appraise ie,value, their options. • Business strategies with hidden – real – options maybe therefore valuable as they reduce risk. 29
  • 30. Types of Options in Business STRATEGY Acquire R and D assets NPD Buy/merge with Competitors Change inputs Acquire new mix 30 technology Cost savings
  • 31. Types and uses of real options 1, Delay options Conventional NPV/DCF techniques assume a now or never and linear approach to investment. Frequently though, investment can be delayed and this decision may affect chances of success/profitability, e.g., as better information comes on board. 31
  • 32. Types and uses of real options 1, Delay options cond •Most frequent in new product development situations where the competition is locked out ,e.g., via entry barriers such as patents and when the market is uncertain. •Example: – A drug firm has a patent on a new drug and delays investment until the costs of borrowing come down thus enhancing profitability. 32
  • 33. Types and uses of real options 2, Abandonment options •Again the npv approach assumes continuity throughout product life. But in reality there may be the scope to abandon the project if say costs are prohibitive. This will then impact project profitability. •Example/Exercise •A firm spends £50 000 on new project that yields cash flows of £15,000 per year for 5 years. If it is hit with a further, unplanned costs of £20 000 in year 1 the project is now unprofitable and it would make sense to abandon the project – if possible – as less money will be lost. •Demonstrate this advantage assuming a cost of capital of 10%. 33
  • 34. Types and uses of real options 3, Flexibility options •In many commercial organisations it may be possible to alter: – input mixes e.g. supplies (with new cost); – customer/channel choices; – Business location; – Etc. •All of which will impact profitability. 34
  • 35. Valuing real options- Black Scholes (Luehrman) • The Black Scholes method is the way of calculating financial option values (calls). • Many academics have used variants of this approach to value real options. • This means using quite tricky mathematics – and this may explain why many strategists shy away from studying real options (Grant, 2010). • FOR THIS MODULE DO NOT WORRY ABOUT CALCULATIONS – INSTEAD UNDERSTAND WHAT REAL OPTIONS ARE, WHY THEY MAY BE VALUBLE AND HOW TO SPOT THEM. 35
  • 36. Valuing real options- Black Scholes (Luehrman) Black Scholes elements Real Option equivalents • Stock Price • Present Value of the project (PV S) S • Exercise Price • Project cost (PV C) X • Time to expiry • Length of term(t) t • Risk free rate • Time Value of Money rf • Variance of returns • Project risk (SD) SD per year These 5 variables can then be simplified further into: 36 Value to cost ratio: PV S/PV C or S/X Volatility: SD x √ t .
  • 37. Valuing real options- Black Scholes • Calculating volatility tricky – how to: – Make an estimate e.g. indexes have an SD of about 20%, manufacturing stocks are about 40%. – Use historical data on investment returns. – Use implied volatility based on volatility of financial options in similar classes of businesses. 37
  • 38. Once we have calculated value to cost and volatility we can plot them on an Option Space Grid to give us indications of what we should do(Luehrman). You can do this without calculations 38
  • 39. Using the grid Note option value increases as we move right and down: Value to Cost VALUE Volatility 39
  • 40. Real Options – the verdict Advantages Disadvantages • Richer than npv – factors • Complicated maths. in more elements to • Some figures might be hard to investment decisions. identify e.g. cost of capital. • Hard to get precise figures e.g. • In particular recognises the for volatility; therefore it is a ability to delay projects. good idea to carryout sensitivity analysis, e.g., change volatility • Suitable in today’s choppy figures. economic climate. • Proxies e.g. suitable financial options may be hard to identify. • Becoming more popular. • Can be hard to spot embedded • Many uses – see earlier options. examples. 40
  • 41. Session 3 -Exercise For a company that you are familiar with, reflect upon some of the strategies available to develop the corporate. 1.Assess whether or nor these strategies include: delay, abandonment or flexibility options. 2.Use the options grid to assess when some of these strategies should be enacted. 41
  • 42. Session 4 – Implementation of strategy • For this session we will focus upon implementing strategy and preventing it from wandering off course (strategic drift) 42
  • 43. Session 4 - reading • Grant ch 2 and 17 • J and S ch 10, 12 • Kaplan, R. and Norton, D. (1992) Balanced scorecard – Measures that drive Performance, HBR, April-May (on the web; this is the first of five articles published by the authors in the HBR) • Rumelt, R (2011) Good Strategy, Bad Strategy, Random House • http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategys_strategist_An_interview_with_Richard_Rume (register first - excellent commentary on Rumelt) • http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/dick.rumelt/Docs/Papers/EVAL2.pdf – (Rumelt criteria) • See also: – 2gc.com • For Balanced scorecard resources esp. for 3 rd generation 43 – scorecardshttp://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/AbouttheBalancedS corecard/tabid/55/Default.aspx o
  • 44. Session 4 - Implementation • This session focuses upon ensuring your strategy – whatever it is – does not wander of course. To do this we must measure and evaluate it. • We shall focus upon: – The Balanced Scorecard (Kaplan and Norton) – Rumelt’s criteria 44
  • 45. The BALANCED SCORECARD How do we look to Financial perspective shareholders? How do customers see us? GOALS MEASURES Internal business Customer perspective perspective GOALS MEASURES GOALS MEASURES Innovation and learning perspective GOALS MEASURES What must we excel at? Can we continue to improve and create value? 45 Source: The Balanced Scorecard - Measures That Drive Performance. Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton. Harvard Business Review. Jan/Feb 1992. Pages 71 - 79.
  • 46. Balanced Scorecard • The key to the BSC is to: • Select performance dimensions (originally Kaplan and Norton envisaged 4 – but you can add/amend) • In each dimension you need 2-5 metrics or measures to measure each dimension. • Key is to design accurate, realistic and practical measures that the firm can operationalise. 46
  • 47. Balanced Scorecard • Key is to balance the measures/metrics: 1. Qualitative and quantitative 2. Leading (forward looking) or lagging (looking at the past – e.g. as in accounting reports) 3. Internal (firm) or external (industry) REMEMBER YOU TAILOR DIMENSIONS 47 AROUND THE FIRM AND CONTEXT
  • 48. Balanced Scorecard • It is important that: • There are clear linkages between dimensions and the metrics in each dimensions: it is normal to establish goals in each dimensions and then find matching metrics. • The BSC cascades throughout the organisations: corporate level; business/SBU level; department level; personal level via appraisal systems. • The BSC is united under an overarching aim or mission. See the 2gc.com website and look at the material under 3rd generation scorecards. 48
  • 49. FOR EACH DIMENSION EG FINANACIAL STIPULATE GOALS AND METRICS AND ENSURE LINKAGE 49
  • 50. Learning & Growth Perspective: Possible Measures Revenues from new products R&D resources & costs Investment in training Suggested improvements per employee Employee age profile Employee turnover rates % full-time permanent employees Staff flexibility / job coverage Staff surveys 50
  • 51. Financial Perspective: Possible Measures Revenues per employee Cost ratios Market value Value added per employee Return on net assets Revenues / total assets Profit margin Contribution / revenue Cash flow 51
  • 52. Customer Perspective: Possible Measures Market share # customers Sales closed / sales contacts Customer loyalty index Average duration of customer relationship Service expense per customer Customers lost / churn ratio Customer survey ratings 52
  • 53. Internal Business Process Perspective: Possible Measures Administrative expense On-time delivery % Lead time (product development, order to delivery, suppliers) Productivity improvement Decision turnaround time Service expense per customer IT capacity & expense Error rates 53 Environmental impact of product use
  • 54. Strategy Review, Evaluation, & Control Consistency Rumelt’s Consonance 4 Criteria Feasibility Advantage 54
  • 55. Strategy Review, Evaluation, & Control Consistency • Strategy should not present inconsistent goals & policies 55
  • 56. Strategy Review, Evaluation, & Control Consonance • Need for strategies to examine sets of trends 56
  • 57. Strategy Review, Evaluation, & Control Feasibility • Neither overtax resources or create unsolvable sub- problems 57
  • 58. Strategy Review, Evaluation, & Control Advantage • Creation or maintenance of competitive advantage 58
  • 59. Session 4 - Exercise Design a Balanced Scorecard for Manchester United; use the original four dimensions and devise 2-3 metrics for each one. Be prepared to justify your choices. 59

Editor's Notes

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