Article in The Times of Israel by Andy Blumenthal: First and foremost, we need more and better capability to think outside the box and see things not only as they appear, but what's behind the curtain as well. War gaming, planning, modeling and simulation, and using artificial intelligence are just some of the tools at our disposal for breaking the paradigm and thinking about what's possible and even what's probable. Most importantly, we need a diversity of thinking to end the groupthink and mind-numbing stasis of seeing things only as we think they are and not as they really are or could be. Whether we employ think tanks and advisory boards; military and intelligence assets; strategic planners, futurists, and statisticians; technologists, scientists, and engineers; psychologists, sociologists, and anthropologists to get into the heads of our adversaries or the realm of the unthinkable, we must break down the barriers to novel thinking and creative solutions. Along with faith in the Almighty and a strong, technologically advanced, and well-trained IDF, this deep planning must become the bedrock of our security preparedness.

1. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 1/9
THE BLOGS
Andy Blumenthal
Leadership With Heart
Preventing a Future
October 7
ADVERTISEMENT

2. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 2/9
AI Generated Image via Craiyon
After the October 7 massacre by Hamas in southern Israel, there will be deep
and penetrating investigations into such a massive security lapse.
How Could This Have Happened to Israel?
We’ve heard everything, from that no one believed that Hamas was capable of
such a large and sophisticated attack in 2023 and that the “IDF doesn’t prepare
itself for things it thinks impossible” to others who have blamed the Shabbat
and Simchat Torah holidays (like the unpreparedness for the 1973 Yom Kippur
War fifty years earlier) for the reduced military and police presence to safeguard
the border and protect the communities and people.
However, considering that Israel is well aware of the deep and violent hatred of
designated terrorist organizations like Hamas (which was founded back in 1987
with a charter to destroy Israel), Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, all supported by
state terror sponsor Iran (which has been in a “war between wars” with Israel
almost as far back as the 1979 radical Islamic revolution), and has been fighting
for its existence in an almost endless series of wars of independence since 1948,

3. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 3/9
it is self-evident that Israel has enemies with the motive and determination to
wage a brutal and relentless war against it.
Further, with the capacity of these terror organizations to dig hundreds of miles
of terror tunnels, send endless barrages of rockets and missiles into Israeli
civilian centers, and conduct cross-border raids attacking and abducting Israelis
(such as in 2006, across both the Lebanese border and from Gaza, snatching
Gilad Shalit and keeping him hostage for five years), there was really every
precedent in the book for Israel security mavens to have foreseen the events of
October 7.
Perhaps we can cough up the security lapses of October 7 due to over-reliance
on new and advanced technology (cyber, sensors, drones, artificial intelligence,
and more), as well as a good dose of hubris in Israel’s rise as an economic and
military power in addition to its newly founded and growing acceptance and
peace with Arab neighbors (such as the Abraham Accords of 2020). Yet none of
this should be an excuse for the successful Hamas attack that killed 1,200
unsuspecting Israelis and resulted in the abduction of 240 more, and that led to
Israel’s largest war in Gaza ever.
Have We Seen This Happen Elsewhere?
There have been many notorious surprise attacks in history, including, of
course, on the United States, whether in Pearl Harbor in 1941 or at the World
Trade Center and Pentagon in 2001.
Additionally, we don’t have to look too far to see another major war going on
between Ukraine and Russia. While the Ukraine war with superpower Russia is
not the same as Israel’s war with the terrorist organization Hamas hiding
behind human shields and in a vast tunnel network, we can still see a similar
inability to perceive the threat that was at their door.

4. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 4/9
Even after the surprise attack in 2014 that took Crimea and other large sections
of Ukraine’s east, and despite eight years of trench warfare leading up to the
February 2022 massive attack by Russia with hundreds of thousands of troops
from the north, east, and south, we still saw Ukrainians shopping, dancing, and
eating in cafes, apparently oblivious or disbelieving of the devastating war that
was about to hit them and has been going on for almost two years now with
perhaps half a million dead and millions more displaced or as refugees.
Why Do We Get Lulled Into a Sense of Complacency?
Aside from over-dependence on technology and our perceived abilities to solve
problems and a sense of misplaced infallibility once we have become “sated and
fat,” there are certainly other reasons that we miss the mark in terms of
recognizing the terrible threats out there.
As human beings, for example, while we have wonderful imaginations that help
us innovate and build towards a better future, we also have challenges that limit
our ability to perceive threats, whether it’s being overly optimistic, not wanting
to “cry wolf,” or shying away from anxiety-producing and depressing topics like
people that want to attack and kill us. It could be said that every day people
already have enough on their plates just trying to earn a living, take care of their
families, deal with health and other issues, and get through the day without
ADVERTISEMENT

5. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 5/9
having to worry about the next nightmare scenario, even when it is staring them
in the face.
Additionally, considering that there are so many possible threats out there from
environmental catastrophes (e.g., global warming or an asteroid hitting our
planet), economic turbulence (e.g., the next big downturn or market crash),
political and social instability (e.g., the dysfunction of government and various
social disorders including communism and even anarchy), let alone military and
cyber threats from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, as well as terrorists
with the potential use, one day, of weapons of mass destruction that our minds
and psyches simply can’t deal with confronting and coping with all of these.
Further, it cannot be ignored that there was almost a full year of deep
polarization in Israel (e.g., judicial reform), endless weekly protests, and
political disaffection and disorder leading up to the Hamas attack and this
cannot be ruled out as an incubator for letting down of the guard with our
enemies.
Finally, it must be said that often the most pernicious threat is that of the
“insider threat,” who has the access and ability to tamper with and/or bring
down our defenses before our adversaries. What role this may have played in the
October 7 attack by Hamas, who was able to not only cross the border en masse
but literally rampage for hours, if not days, virtually unimpeded, remains a
question that deserves to be fully explored.

6. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 6/9
What Can We Do to Improve Our Ability to Prepare for Crisis?
Listen, as we’ve seen, there are limits to our abilities and desire to face the
abyss. Nevertheless, we owe it to ourselves and our loved ones to try our best to
prepare for a crisis or catastrophe. We have scarce resources and lots of national
debt, so we need to apply our resources strategically.
First and foremost, we need more and better capability to think outside the box
and see things not only as they appear, but what’s behind the curtain as well.
War gaming, planning, modeling and simulation, and using artificial
intelligence are just some of the tools at our disposal for breaking the paradigm
and thinking about what’s possible and even what’s probable. Most importantly,
we need a diversity of thinking to end the groupthink and mind-numbing stasis
of seeing things only as we think they are and not as they really are or could be.
Whether we employ think tanks and advisory boards; military and intelligence
assets; strategic planners, futurists, and statisticians; technologists, scientists,
and engineers; psychologists, sociologists, and anthropologists to get into the
heads of our adversaries or the realm of the unthinkable, we must break down
the barriers to novel thinking and creative solutions. Along with faith in the
Almighty and a strong, technologically advanced, and well-trained IDF, this
deep planning must become the bedrock of our security preparedness.
ADVERTISEMENT

7. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 7/9
Just a simplified example: when I look at October 7 and see the Hamas terrorists
rampaging over the Israeli border, I can’t help but look at Ukraine and Russia’s
war, where they have been building fortified “borders” with trenches, razor wire
fences, anti-tank obstacles (e.g., concrete dragon teeth), minefields, troops,
drones, and more to stop the advancing enemy. Whether it is a mechanized
armor force attacking in Ukraine or hordes of terrorists at the Israeli border, we
must be open to applying new and layered defenses and prepared to stop them
in their tracks and not even get near, and certainly not over, the border to hurt
and kill innocent civilians.
Recently, I overheard a conversation with someone being discharged from the
hospital, and the nurse said to the patient something that took me aback. She
goes rather bluntly: “I hope I never see you again.” In response, the patient,
gleeful to be getting out of the hospital, responded in kind, “And I hope I never
see you again!” This is sort of the way I feel about the threats at our doorstep.
We need to be brave, eyes wide open, and dutifully prepared so that we can say
to Hamas or whatever threats are awaiting us, “I want to never see you again,
and I mean it!”

8. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 8/9
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andy Blumenthal is a dynamic, award-winning leader who writes frequently about Jewish life,
culture, and security. All opinions are his own.
ADVERTISEMENT
AdChoices Sponsored
Discussions are moderated for civility. Read the guidelines here.
Conversation
Log in
Be the first to comment...
No one seems to have shared their thoughts on this topic yet
Leave a comment so your voice will be heard first.

9. 12/31/23, 7:13 AM Preventing a Future October 7 | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/preventing-a-future-october-7/ 9/9
Powered by Terms | Privacy | Feedback