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There	
  were	
  514,000	
  new	
  business	
  owners	
  in	
  2012	
  	
  
…but	
  half	
  of	
  all	
  businesses	
  fail	
  within	
  five	
  years	
  
−	
  U.S.	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Labor	
  StaAsAcs	
  
UnicornHuntr:	
  Predict	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  early-­‐stage	
  startups	
  
*success	
  =	
  receive	
  series	
  A	
  funding	
  
Yun	
  Lee	
  +	
  
Random	
  forest	
  classifier	
  
•  Training:	
  2+	
  year-­‐old	
  startups	
  (n	
  =	
  4565)	
  
•  Tes;ng:	
  new	
  startups	
  (n	
  =	
  1760)	
  
	
  
Numerical	
  features	
  
•  total	
  pre-­‐series	
  A	
  funding	
  
•  employee	
  growth	
  rate	
  
•  #	
  news	
  coverage	
  
Categorical	
  features	
  
•  industries	
  
•  business	
  models	
  
5-­‐fold	
  cross	
  validaAon	
  
accuracy	
  =	
  0.81	
  
Popularity	
  maIers	
  
High	
  employee	
  
growth	
  
Large	
  seed	
  
money	
  
High	
  
publicity	
  
Raise	
  big	
  money	
  	
  
(and	
  change	
  the	
  world!)	
  
Yun	
  Lee,	
  Ph.D.	
  
Insight	
  Data	
  Science	
  Fellow	
  

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Insight-week4demo-v2

  • 1. There  were  514,000  new  business  owners  in  2012     …but  half  of  all  businesses  fail  within  five  years   −  U.S.  Bureau  of  Labor  StaAsAcs  
  • 2. UnicornHuntr:  Predict  the  success  of  early-­‐stage  startups   *success  =  receive  series  A  funding   Yun  Lee  +  
  • 3. Random  forest  classifier   •  Training:  2+  year-­‐old  startups  (n  =  4565)   •  Tes;ng:  new  startups  (n  =  1760)     Numerical  features   •  total  pre-­‐series  A  funding   •  employee  growth  rate   •  #  news  coverage   Categorical  features   •  industries   •  business  models  
  • 4.
  • 5. 5-­‐fold  cross  validaAon   accuracy  =  0.81  
  • 6. Popularity  maIers   High  employee   growth   Large  seed   money   High   publicity   Raise  big  money     (and  change  the  world!)  
  • 7. Yun  Lee,  Ph.D.   Insight  Data  Science  Fellow