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Inverter market trends 2013 Report by Yole Developpement

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Inverter market is exploding, and expects to reach $75 billion in 2020.

THERE IS SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN THE INVERTER MARKET, WHICH REACHED $45 BILLION IN 2012 FOR MOTION AND CONVERSION
Energy related topics have become more and more important in 2012 – vehicle electrification, renewable energies, electricity transportation, and as a direct result, the power electronics market has increased. This growth is driven by:
- high volume and cost pressure applications such as EV/HEV
- high added-value markets like renewable energies and rail traction

In this report, we update and present market forecasts until 2020. We estimate the inverter market to be $45 billion in 2012 and to reach $71 billion by 2020. A total of more than 28 million units were shipped in 2012 and we estimate that will grow to 80 million units in 2020.
Thus, the main components of inverter, passive and semiconductor modules (that we will find in power stacks) represent enticing industries. The power module market was $1.9 billion in 2012 and passive components achieved a market size of more than $4 billion, including capacitors, resistors, connectors, busbars and - newly added in this updated report - magnetic components (inductors and transformers).
As expected, wide band gap semiconductor devices have also started to penetrate those high-end market segments: SiC is present in PV inverters – a total market size of $43 million primarily driven by diodes in micro-inverters, but also by JFETs – and GaN which should be introduced in 2013.

OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
- Assess the market for inverters and its components
- Understand the market dynamics for the related power electronics applications
- Identify the key technologies and technical trends for tomorrow's high added-value systems
- Have a clear overview of competitive landscape and regional tendencies
- Aid in formulating vertical integration and diversification strategy
- Keep pace with the quickly evolving power electronics market

COMPANY CITED IN THE REPORT
ABB, AEG, AgileSwitch, Alstom, AMSC, AVX, BMW, Bolloré, Bombardier, Bosch, BYD, CAF, Chrysler, Citroen, CNR, Continental, Converteam, Cornell Dubilier, CREE, CSR, Danfoss, Delphi, Denso, Dynex, Eagtop, Eaton, EBG, Ebusbar, Eldre, Electronicon, Emerson, Enphase, Epcos, Fairchild, FCI, Firema, Ford, Fronius, Fuji Electric, Gamesa, General Electric, GM, Goldwind, Hitachi, Honda, Hyundai, Hyundai Rotem, Icemos, Idealec, Infineon, International Rectifier, Ixys, Kaco, Kawasaki, KTX, KTX, Liebert, Lytran, MACMIC, Magnachip, Mastervolt, Maxwell, Mersen, Methode, MicroGaN, Microsemi, Microsilver, Mitsubishi, Molex, NEC, Nesscap, Nichicon, Nissan, Ohmite, ON Semiconductor, Panasonic, Parker, POSEICO, Powerex, PowerOne, PSA,Renault, Renesas, Rockwell, Rogers, Rohm, SAIC, Schneider Electric, Seika Electric, Semikron, Semisouth, SEPSA, Shizuki, Siemens...

More info on http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Inverter-Market-Trends-2013-2020-Major-

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Inverter market trends 2013 Report by Yole Developpement

  1. 1. Inverter Market Trends 2013 - 2020 and Major Technology Changes February 2013 A big dive into the heart of the power electronics industry, from systems to active & passive components REPORT SAMPLE Delphi© 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Table of Contents• Glossary p. 3 – Wind Turbines p. 129• How Is the Report Built? p. 4 • Market metrics (MW, units, revenues) – A Two Part Report • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors – Methodology, Limitations and Yole’s Proprietary Tools • Supply chain – Top-Down Approach Report – Rail Traction p. 149 • Market metrics (units, revenues split by train size) – Why Such a Report? • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors• What Is New in This Report? p. 9 • Supply chain – What We Saw… – UPS p. 173 – … What We Missed • Market metrics (units, revenues split by power range) • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors – What We Can Expect for 2013 – Industrial Motor Drives p. 186• Executive Summary p. 13 • Market metrics (units revenues, split by power range)• Technological Briefing p. 40 • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors• Compiled Market Forecasts p. 51 • Analytical Comparison p. 197 – Inverters – Application Priorities by Market Drivers p. 199 – Power Modules (split by application and technology) – Inverter Architecture Trends p. 206 – Capacitors • Technical trends • Price density – Resistors • Power density – Connectors – Power Stacks p. 219 – Busbars – Implementation of SiC and GaN Materials in Power Electronics p. 233 – Magnetics – Passive Components, Packaging and Connectivity Evolution p. 238• Applications Analysis p. 63 – Supply Chain p. 259 – PV Inverters p. 65 • Vertical integration • Market metrics (MW, units, revenues) • Diversification • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors – Global Perspectives p. 271 • Supply chain – EV/HEV p. 92 • General Conclusions p. 276 • Market metrics (units, revenues split by car technology) • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors • Power packaging • Supply chain © 2013 • 2 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  3. 3. Executive Summary Inverter market (revenue) Inverters market (in M$) including PV inverter, wind turbine, rail traction, EV/HEV, motor drives & UPS 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020© 2013 • 3 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  4. 4. Analytical Comparison and Global Market Forecasts Global perspective Power module players typologySales of IR power modulesactivity to Vishay Power module manufacturers: Chosen business model Power module manufacturers: Technology bottleneck for Discrete power Power modules and semiconductor transistor transistor makers semiconductor device manufacturing (only diode is manufacturers mastered in some cases) © 2013 • 4 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  5. 5. Passive Components Inductors and transformers• To date, there are three main transformer types available: – Wirewound core or shell type • The historic type of transformer using a square core, or “E-I” core, and wirewound copper cables – Toroidal type • The core is ring shaped, and cables are wound around the core – Planar type • This newer type of transformer is proposed only by a few players. The core is similar to a core or shell type transformer. The difference is with the conductor, which is not cable made. A planar conductor is used. For low power, it can be planar lines on a PCB. For high power, the conductor can be made of planar copper rings. © 2013 • 5 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  6. 6. Bill of Materials Comparison Si vs. SiC Results for 5kW 1-Phase© 2013 • 6 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  7. 7. Power Devices for PV Inverters Inverter Supply-chain for power devices manufacturer Device Module makerNote: this supply-chain manufactureris not only for IGBT government supported R&D program Not for long Still in qualification• SiC diodes are more and more common, and the only suppliers seem to be CREE, Infineon and Semisouth © 2013 • 7 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  8. 8. SiC Device Roadmap for Full/Plug-In Hybrid and EV GaN Si SiC JFET and MOSFETs will start from higher voltages. They will not be available at reasonable prices before 2015. They will stay in high-end products, and mostly on EV. We do not expect these devices to IGBTs will stay the take a big market sharepreferred device for (About 3% in 2020) a long time. With Super Junction MOSFET market wafer size penetration will depend on its ability toincreasing, it will be move to higher voltages. ST Micro has GaN HemT will have to come with even cheaper. We promised to do so. It could be a very higher voltage. They are already expect it to keep good challenger to IGBT for the next 10 promising that for motor drive +90% of market years. If we come with 1200V or 1700V applications, but EV/HEV requires a share until 2019. SJ MOS that can handle the current, lot of current. We have to wait and Then the market then the technology will explode. If see. More input is needed for will begin to move not, it will be constrained to very small market penetration analysis in to compound urban HEV. Full/Plug-in HEV and EV. semiconductor© 2013 • 8 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  9. 9. Passive Components - Introduction• When using higher power, the choice of passive components is critical and must consider the functions where they are applied. We will take a look at the different resistors, capacitors, connectors and busbars surrounding the inverter. DC link Snubber Pre-charge Balancing AC filter DC/DC boost Motor converter Load dump Busbars and Sensing © 2013 • 9 connectivity Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  10. 10. Application Priorities by Market Drivers +++: Strong driver ++: Medium driver Priority ranking per application +: Low driver Drivers Performance Reliability Cost Form factor WeightApplications (efficiency) Lifetime PV inverters +++ +++ ++ + + EV/HEV ++ + + +++ +++ Wind turbines ++ +++ ++ + + Rail traction + + ++ ++ +++ UPS +++ + +++ ++ ++Industrial motor drives +++ ++ ++ + + © 2013 • 10 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  11. 11. Inverter Architecture Trends: Where Are We Going? With Which Solutions? • Thermal management at module level: – Base plate / spreader / passive cooling system  double-sided cooling seems to be the most efficient solution – DBC1MW • Interconnects and power advanced packaging: – Ribbon bonding – Copper bumps and copper pillars Source: GE Global Research100kW • Then device Three phases in the same power module power range will Developed by device/module makers be increased10kW1kW • NPC architecture requires faster switching devices  first step is to decrease cost of high frequency switches such as – SiC MOSFETs, – GaN HemTs – SJ MOSFETs © 2013 • 11 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and later Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  12. 12. Where Are the Synergies (1/2) Laminated busbar /PCB Cooling system Wind turbines Capacitor Inductors, PV inverter Current sensors (CT) Motor drives Resistor Rail IGBT Stack traction INVERTER O&M Power services Power connectors module UPS • Inverters are an assembly of modules and passive components IGBT driver • There is a technical synergy between close components. It means that they are physically close, EV/HEV and their functions are complementary. This synergy strongly impacts the supply chain evolution :Semiconductor – Partnerships between capacitor and busbardie manufacturers are created And – Partnerships or joint developments between power others… module and power stack manufacturers © 2013 • 12 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  13. 13. The Recent Moves: M&As, Partnerships and Partnerships Vertical integration Developments (1/2) Acquired Acquirer one• Overview of the current power electronics landscape Power System & application Others Busbars Capacitors Inductors Resistors Connectors modules PV EV/HEV * Rail * Wind West dean machinery UPS Motor Energy *: Curamik is a power module parts manufacturer (DBCs) © 2013 • 13 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  14. 14. Multiple Components Manufacturers: Summary Table Laminated Other Power Capacitors busbars Inductors Resistors Connectors electronics parts Total (2011) $XX M Vishay $XXM - - $XX M - XX (semiconductors) $XX M Eagtop $0.1 M $XX M $XX M $XX M - XX (cooling solutions) $XX M SMA group - - $63.0 M - - XX (inverters and stacks) $XX M CSR - $XX M - - - XX (inverters) $XX M Rogers - $45.0 M - - - XX (DBC) $XX M Mersen - $XX M - - - (cooling systems and XX protection solutions)• Several players are involved in manufacturing more than one passive component. This horizontal integration can come from: – The history of the company, where past events made the company involved in such markets. It comes, most of the time, from opportunistic strategic moves. It is the case for Vishay. – A planned strategy, which will likely result in the company manufacturing new components. This strategy is then part of the integration trend. This is the case for SMA, Eagtop, Rogers and Mersen. © 2013 • 14 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  15. 15. Passive Components, Packaging and Connectivity Evolution Trends in power module packaging Current solutions Emerging technos Potential breakthrough Widely used by all players At mass production and At R&D stage. Still too expensive taking up market shares Al ribbon Foil sintering bonding Foil ultrasonic Copper wire wedge bonding Al wire bonding bonding Nano powder sintering (no DBC on both heating and sides: Pb/Sn alloy pressure for flip chip Silver micro attach process) + Sintering on powder sintering both sides Thermal exchange +Cooling on both Baseplate + heatsink improvements: sides AlSiC for long lifetime Al2O3 for cost • Shower power Micro-channel • DBC to heatsink cooling (no baseplate)© 2013 • 15 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  16. 16. Global Perspective Power module player typologySale of IR power moduleactivity to Vishay Power module manufacturers: Chosen business model Power module manufacturers: Technology bottleneck for Discrete power Power module and semiconductor transistor transistor makers semiconductor device manufacturing (only diode is manufacturers mastered in some cases) © 2013 • 16 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  17. 17. Yole activities in Power Electronics Media business Reports Consulting services News feed / Magazines / Market Market research, Webcasts Research Technology & Strategy www.yole.fr© 2013 • 17 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
  18. 18. Power Electronics reports Inverter Technology Power Electronics Passive Super Junction Trends & Market for Rail Components for MOSFET Expectations Transportation Power Electronics New! New! New! New! Status of Power Power Electronics Electronics Power Fab Power GaN Database for Wind Turbines Industry New! New! Power Electronics High Voltage Trends for Smart Grid in EV/HEV Power Electronics© 2013 • 18 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.

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