Inverter market is exploding, and expects to reach $75 billion in 2020. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN THE INVERTER MARKET, WHICH REACHED $45 BILLION IN 2012 FOR MOTION AND CONVERSION Energy related topics have become more and more important in 2012 – vehicle electrification, renewable energies, electricity transportation, and as a direct result, the power electronics market has increased. This growth is driven by: - high volume and cost pressure applications such as EV/HEV - high added-value markets like renewable energies and rail traction In this report, we update and present market forecasts until 2020. We estimate the inverter market to be $45 billion in 2012 and to reach $71 billion by 2020. A total of more than 28 million units were shipped in 2012 and we estimate that will grow to 80 million units in 2020. Thus, the main components of inverter, passive and semiconductor modules (that we will find in power stacks) represent enticing industries. The power module market was $1.9 billion in 2012 and passive components achieved a market size of more than $4 billion, including capacitors, resistors, connectors, busbars and - newly added in this updated report - magnetic components (inductors and transformers). As expected, wide band gap semiconductor devices have also started to penetrate those high-end market segments: SiC is present in PV inverters – a total market size of $43 million primarily driven by diodes in micro-inverters, but also by JFETs – and GaN which should be introduced in 2013. OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT - Assess the market for inverters and its components - Understand the market dynamics for the related power electronics applications - Identify the key technologies and technical trends for tomorrow's high added-value systems - Have a clear overview of competitive landscape and regional tendencies - Aid in formulating vertical integration and diversification strategy - Keep pace with the quickly evolving power electronics market COMPANY CITED IN THE REPORT ABB, AEG, AgileSwitch, Alstom, AMSC, AVX, BMW, Bolloré, Bombardier, Bosch, BYD, CAF, Chrysler, Citroen, CNR, Continental, Converteam, Cornell Dubilier, CREE, CSR, Danfoss, Delphi, Denso, Dynex, Eagtop, Eaton, EBG, Ebusbar, Eldre, Electronicon, Emerson, Enphase, Epcos, Fairchild, FCI, Firema, Ford, Fronius, Fuji Electric, Gamesa, General Electric, GM, Goldwind, Hitachi, Honda, Hyundai, Hyundai Rotem, Icemos, Idealec, Infineon, International Rectifier, Ixys, Kaco, Kawasaki, KTX, KTX, Liebert, Lytran, MACMIC, Magnachip, Mastervolt, Maxwell, Mersen, Methode, MicroGaN, Microsemi, Microsilver, Mitsubishi, Molex, NEC, Nesscap, Nichicon, Nissan, Ohmite, ON Semiconductor, Panasonic, Parker, POSEICO, Powerex, PowerOne, PSA,Renault, Renesas, Rockwell, Rogers, Rohm, SAIC, Schneider Electric, Seika Electric, Semikron, Semisouth, SEPSA, Shizuki, Siemens... More info on http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/Inverter-Market-Trends-2013-2020-Major-

1. Inverter Market Trends 2013 - 2020
and Major Technology Changes
February 2013
A big dive into the heart of the power electronics industry, from systems to active & passive components
REPORT SAMPLE
Delphi
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2. Table of Contents
• Glossary p. 3
– Wind Turbines p. 129
• How Is the Report Built? p. 4 • Market metrics (MW, units, revenues)
– A Two Part Report • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors
– Methodology, Limitations and Yole’s Proprietary Tools • Supply chain
– Top-Down Approach Report – Rail Traction p. 149
• Market metrics (units, revenues split by train size)
– Why Such a Report?
• Technological trends for passives and semiconductors
• What Is New in This Report? p. 9 • Supply chain
– What We Saw… – UPS p. 173
– … What We Missed • Market metrics (units, revenues split by power range)
• Technological trends for passives and semiconductors
– What We Can Expect for 2013
– Industrial Motor Drives p. 186
• Executive Summary p. 13
• Market metrics (units revenues, split by power range)
• Technological Briefing p. 40 • Technological trends for passives and semiconductors
• Compiled Market Forecasts p. 51 • Analytical Comparison p. 197
– Inverters – Application Priorities by Market Drivers p. 199
– Power Modules (split by application and technology) – Inverter Architecture Trends p. 206
– Capacitors • Technical trends
• Price density
– Resistors
• Power density
– Connectors
– Power Stacks p. 219
– Busbars
– Implementation of SiC and GaN Materials in Power Electronics p. 233
– Magnetics
– Passive Components, Packaging and Connectivity Evolution p. 238
• Applications Analysis p. 63
– Supply Chain p. 259
– PV Inverters p. 65 • Vertical integration
• Market metrics (MW, units, revenues) • Diversification
• Technological trends for passives and semiconductors
– Global Perspectives p. 271
• Supply chain
– EV/HEV p. 92 • General Conclusions p. 276
• Market metrics (units, revenues split by car technology)
• Technological trends for passives and semiconductors
• Power packaging
• Supply chain
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3. Executive Summary
Inverter market (revenue)
Inverters market (in M$)
including PV inverter, wind turbine, rail traction, EV/HEV, motor drives & UPS
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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4. Analytical Comparison and Global Market Forecasts
Global perspective
Power module players typology
Sales of IR
power
modules
activity to
Vishay
Power module
manufacturers:
Chosen business model
Power module manufacturers:
Technology bottleneck for
Discrete power Power modules and semiconductor transistor
transistor makers semiconductor device manufacturing (only diode is
manufacturers mastered in some cases)
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5. Passive Components
Inductors and transformers
• To date, there are three main transformer types available:
– Wirewound core or shell type
• The historic type of transformer using a square core, or “E-I”
core, and wirewound copper cables
– Toroidal type
• The core is ring shaped, and cables are wound around the core
– Planar type
• This newer type of transformer is proposed only by a few
players. The core is similar to a core or shell type transformer.
The difference is with the conductor, which is not cable made. A
planar conductor is used. For low power, it can be planar lines
on a PCB. For high power, the conductor can be made of planar
copper rings.
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6. Bill of Materials Comparison Si vs. SiC
Results for 5kW 1-Phase
© 2013 • 6
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7. Power Devices for PV Inverters Inverter
Supply-chain for power devices manufacturer
Device Module maker
Note: this supply-chain manufacturer
is not only for IGBT
government supported
R&D program
Not for long
Still in qualification
• SiC diodes are
more and more
common, and the
only suppliers
seem to be CREE,
Infineon and
Semisouth
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8. SiC
Device Roadmap for Full/Plug-In Hybrid and EV GaN
Si
SiC JFET and MOSFETs
will start from higher
voltages. They will not
be available at
reasonable prices
before 2015. They will
stay in high-end
products, and mostly
on EV. We do not
expect these devices to
IGBTs will stay the take a big market share
preferred device for (About 3% in 2020)
a long time. With
Super Junction MOSFET market
wafer size
penetration will depend on its ability to
increasing, it will be
move to higher voltages. ST Micro has GaN HemT will have to come with
even cheaper. We
promised to do so. It could be a very higher voltage. They are already
expect it to keep
good challenger to IGBT for the next 10 promising that for motor drive
+90% of market
years. If we come with 1200V or 1700V applications, but EV/HEV requires a
share until 2019.
SJ MOS that can handle the current, lot of current. We have to wait and
Then the market
then the technology will explode. If see. More input is needed for
will begin to move
not, it will be constrained to very small market penetration analysis in
to compound
urban HEV. Full/Plug-in HEV and EV.
semiconductor
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9. Passive Components - Introduction
• When using higher power, the choice of passive components is critical and must
consider the functions where they are applied. We will take a look at the different
resistors, capacitors, connectors and busbars surrounding the inverter.
DC link Snubber
Pre-charge
Balancing
AC filter
DC/DC
boost
Motor
converter
Load dump
Busbars and Sensing
© 2013 • 9
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10. Application Priorities by Market Drivers +++: Strong driver
++: Medium driver
Priority ranking per application +: Low driver
Drivers
Performance Reliability
Cost Form factor Weight
Applications (efficiency) Lifetime
PV inverters +++ +++ ++ + +
EV/HEV ++ + + +++ +++
Wind
turbines
++ +++ ++ + +
Rail
traction
+ + ++ ++ +++
UPS +++ + +++ ++ ++
Industrial motor
drives +++ ++ ++ + +
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11. Inverter Architecture Trends:
Where Are We Going? With Which Solutions?
• Thermal management at module level:
– Base plate / spreader / passive cooling system  double-sided cooling seems to be the most efficient
solution
– DBC
1MW
• Interconnects and power advanced packaging:
– Ribbon bonding
– Copper bumps and copper pillars
Source: GE Global Research
100kW
• Then device
Three phases in the same power module power range will
Developed by device/module makers be increased
10kW
1kW • NPC architecture requires faster switching devices  first step is to decrease cost of high
frequency switches such as
– SiC MOSFETs,
– GaN HemTs
– SJ MOSFETs
© 2013 • 11 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 and later
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12. Where Are the Synergies (1/2)
Laminated
busbar /PCB Cooling system
Wind turbines
Capacitor Inductors, PV inverter
Current
sensors (CT) Motor drives
Resistor
Rail
IGBT Stack traction
INVERTER O&M
Power services
Power connectors
module UPS
• Inverters are an assembly of modules and passive
components
IGBT driver • There is a technical synergy between close
components. It means that they are physically close, EV/HEV
and their functions are complementary. This synergy
strongly impacts the supply chain evolution :
Semiconductor – Partnerships between capacitor and busbar
die manufacturers are created And
– Partnerships or joint developments between power others…
module and power stack manufacturers
© 2013 • 12
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13. The Recent Moves: M&As, Partnerships and Partnerships
Vertical integration
Developments (1/2) Acquired Acquirer
one
• Overview of the current power electronics landscape
Power System & application
Others Busbars Capacitors Inductors Resistors Connectors
modules
PV
EV/HEV
* Rail
*
Wind
West dean machinery
UPS
Motor
Energy
*: Curamik is a power module parts manufacturer (DBCs)
© 2013 • 13
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14. Multiple Components Manufacturers: Summary Table
Laminated Other Power
Capacitors
busbars
Inductors Resistors Connectors
electronics parts Total (2011)
$XX M
Vishay $XXM - - $XX M - XX
(semiconductors)
$XX M
Eagtop $0.1 M $XX M $XX M $XX M - XX
(cooling solutions)
$XX M
SMA group - - $63.0 M - - XX
(inverters and stacks)
$XX M
CSR - $XX M - - - XX
(inverters)
$XX M
Rogers - $45.0 M - - - XX
(DBC)
$XX M
Mersen - $XX M - - - (cooling systems and XX
protection solutions)
• Several players are involved in manufacturing more than one passive component. This horizontal integration can come
from:
– The history of the company, where past events made the company involved in such markets. It comes, most of the time, from opportunistic
strategic moves. It is the case for Vishay.
– A planned strategy, which will likely result in the company manufacturing new components. This strategy is then part of the integration trend.
This is the case for SMA, Eagtop, Rogers and Mersen.
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15. Passive Components, Packaging and Connectivity Evolution
Trends in power module packaging
Current solutions Emerging technos Potential breakthrough
Widely used by all players At mass production and At R&D stage. Still too expensive
taking up market shares
Al ribbon
Foil sintering
bonding
Foil ultrasonic
Copper wire wedge bonding
Al wire bonding bonding
Nano powder
sintering (no DBC on both
heating and sides:
Pb/Sn alloy pressure for flip chip
Silver micro
attach process) + Sintering on
powder sintering both sides
Thermal exchange +Cooling on both
Baseplate + heatsink improvements: sides
AlSiC for long lifetime
Al2O3 for cost • Shower power
Micro-channel
• DBC to heatsink
cooling
(no baseplate)
© 2013 • 15
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16. Global Perspective
Power module player typology
Sale of IR
power
module
activity to
Vishay
Power module
manufacturers:
Chosen business model
Power module manufacturers:
Technology bottleneck for
Discrete power Power module and semiconductor transistor
transistor makers semiconductor device manufacturing (only diode is
manufacturers mastered in some cases)
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17. Yole activities in Power Electronics
Media business Reports Consulting services
News feed / Magazines / Market Market research,
Webcasts Research Technology & Strategy
www.yole.fr
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18. Power Electronics reports
Inverter Technology Power Electronics Passive
Super Junction Trends & Market for Rail Components for
MOSFET Expectations Transportation Power Electronics
New! New! New! New!
Status of Power Power Electronics
Electronics Power Fab
Power GaN Database for Wind Turbines
Industry
New! New!
Power Electronics High Voltage
Trends for Smart Grid
in EV/HEV Power Electronics
© 2013 • 18
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