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Oled Lighting Trends And Opportunities


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Presentation from LED/OLED conference in Asia from January 2011

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Oled Lighting Trends And Opportunities

  1. 1. OLED Lighting Trends and Opportunities A Webinar for the FlexTech Alliance August 2, 2011NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011NanoMarkets, LC
  2. 2. 2 About NanoMarkets LC • NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been covering OLED lighting markets for five years and provide coverage of both materials and the OLED panels and luminaires themselves • Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides an updated forecast for the OLED lighting market every nine months. • Offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S., with extensive contacts all over the worldNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  3. 3. 3 NanoMarkets’ Recent OLED Lighting Reports• OLED Lighting Products and Market Strategies (3/10)• OLED Lighting Materials Market: Trends and Impact (10/10)• Transparent Conductors in the OLED Industry: 2011 and Beyond (11/10)• The Business Case for OLED Lighting (12/10)• OLED Lighting in Asia (4/11)• OLED Lighting in Europe (5/11)• OLED Lighting Global Market Forecasts (5/11)• Markets for OLED Materials (6/11)NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  4. 4. 4 Some Forecasts for Total OLED Lighting Revenues • NanoMarkets (U.S): $4.8 billion by 2016 • Analysis Atelier Corp (Japan): $7.5 billion by 2015 (NanoMarkets $2.6 billion). Large sales outside of Asia, Europe and the U.S. Personal illumination devices • Lux Research (U.S.): $58 million by 2020. High costs keep OLED lighting luxury itemsNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  5. 5. 5 Questions Answered in Today’s Presentation • What is it reasonable to believe about the future of OLED lighting? • Where can OLEDs find competitive advantage in the lighting market? • What segments of the lighting market can they compete in? • Two plausible low-end market scenarios for OLED lighting: – Scenario one: The worst that can happen – Scenario two: How far can niche markets take OLED lighting • How can OLED lighting replace “light bulbs”? • OLED lighting market as mass market: Some market forecastsNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  6. 6. 6 Where are we now? . . . a sanity check • Many developments in last two years • As many as 40 companies including majors (GE, Samsung, LG, Mitsubishi, Philips, Osram, etc., etc., etc.) involved • Designer kits available for more than two years • A few dozen luxury luminaires (often from European designers) are available from high end retailers or have been built for custom applications. • Luminaires are now thousands of dollars not tens of thousandsNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  7. 7. 7 Selected European OLED Lighting Design Projects and ProductsProduct Designer CommentsAirabesc Osram Contains 11 Orbeos rectangle panels and six LEDs. The lamp comes in black, white or polished aluminumAston Martin Jason Bruges Large OLED lighting installation to show off latest Aston Martin car. Uses Philips OLEDShowroom panelsCluster + Benwirth Licht Combines both LEDs and OLEDs. The OLED panels are the Orbeos panels sourced from Osram. Won the Design Plus Aware in 2010 and the Best of Best Interior Innovation Aware 2011.Double C-Future Ingo Maurer High-tech pendent lamp featuring nine suspended Orbeos OLED panelsEarly Future Ingo Maurer The very first OLED luminaire; a table lamp resembling a tiny tree with OLED leavesEdge Amanda Levete Collaboration with Philips using Lumiblade. It is manufactured by Establish & Sons and sells for €2,200Flat Lamp Tom Dixon Collaboration with Philips in the form of minimalist OLED lampsJumping Flash Novaled Transparent OLED lamp design, called the "Jumping Flash". This uses five transparent white OLED panels (10x10cm each), with the entire lamp being expandable like a accordionLamped D Signed (Irena Kilibard) Uses OLED panels from Fraunhofer and has been shown at a London design festivalMimosa Jason Bruges Light sculpture using Philips panels which showed at the SuperStudio in MilanPirOLED Osram This luminaire costs €9,800 and again uses both LED and OLED lighting; in this case it has five Orbeos panels and five LED lamps.Samothrace Blackbody Battery-operated OLED Blackbody available in a "limited edition"OLeaf Developed by Philips Can be a table or wall lamp and sells for €1,200 to €1,400 with Modular Lighting Instruments"You Fade to rAndom International Light sculpture using more than 900 of Philips Lumiblade panels. A limited edition of thisLight" installation is commercially availableNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  8. 8. 8 Regulation: Market Boosts and Distortions • Phasing out: EU will have phased out incandescent bulbs by 2012, with halogens gone by 2016. U.S. says lighting must be 25-30 percent more efficient than today’s bulbs beginning in 2012. More draconian U.S. requirements expected for 2020 • Doesn’t impact early OLED lighting introduction. Luxury lights not deployed because of regulations • Early market maturity. Government regulations accelerate the market opportunity, but also market maturity and saturation. This must be taken into consideration in corporate strategies. Even on optimistic scenarios, saturation of general lighting market begins to impact the market by 2014 • Perverse economics. California utilities have chosen to meet regulatory mandates by heavily subsidizing CFLs to a point where they are almost as inexpensive as incandescent lighting. So a lot of CFL bulbs are being bought in California and sold in other statesNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  9. 9. 9 Business Challenges for OLED Lighting • Immature technology with no settled manufacturing approach or customer awareness. Unusual form factor makes comparisons difficult • OLEDs significantly lag the competition. Past improvements have been swift. But how far can we go? Efficacies above 100 lm/W? • Costs per kilolumen are now so high as to rule out useful comparisons on a total cost of ownership basis • LEDs can directly capitalize on standard semiconductor industry processes. Can printing R2R processes deliver lower costs? • Light output (i.e., luminance) needs to be higher to achieve significant market penetration in general lighting and backlighting sectors • No clear product strategy to make OLED lighting into plug and play replacement for conventional lightingNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  10. 10. 10 OLED Lighting and the Economy • Positive: Energy prices. Energy prices rising again and are likely to continue to rise in real terms as the Indian and Chinese economies grow. • Negative: Lack of investment money. Large lighting/electronics firms are investing in OLED lighting, but better times might have seen more VCs. Future inflationary conditions could hurt investment once again. • Negative: Slump in new construction. The construction market in the U.S. and Europe is improving only slowly at best. Boom in China is ending. Lighting expenditures are strongly tied to construction activityNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  11. 11. Unique Value-Added Features of OLED Lighting OLED lighting special Short-term Impact Long-Term Impact featureForm factor Large-area panel Ability to replace Larger panels than can be achieved format and thinness existing recessed now with more total light output. lighting panels with Eventually, there is the possibility more even lighting and of very large light panels that cover no need for recessing an entire wall of ceiling.Conformability Flexible Novel designs for Conformal panels for large area chandeliers and table coverage, mobile/rollable lighting lamps of various kinds. Also lighting flexible signage and packagingTransparency OLEDs are potentially Novel designs for Smart windows and window transparent lighting treatmentsTunability Color tunable. This Could be used for Could also be used in smart capability is shared adjustable mood windows and window treatments with ILEDs and lighting NanoMarkets thin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  12. 12. Business Cases for Flexible OLED Lighting ProductsProduct Business CaseResidential lighting Flexibility may play the role of more effectively creating new aesthetics or better creating the mood lighting effect. This is an area waiting to be explored by lighting and interior designers.Large lighting panels OLED lighting is uniquely capable of providing large lighting panels that could cover an entire wall or ceiling. As the size of OLED panels increase they will have to be mounted on surfaces that are not entirely flat which will provide good reasons for OLED lighting panels to be flexible or conformal. This need would be enhanced if OLEDs were used on outdoor surfaces, but this is also not yet possibleIntegrated lighting Incorporating lighting into both curtains and clothing is not well developed. Such products have used collections of ILED lights stitched to fabric. OLEDs would be a good substitute. Business cases for OLED lighting for fabrics can be based on aesthetics and fashion, but there will also be practical advantages such as visibility of people who work or travel in dark areas.Extended light strips These can be used to provide low levels of light to guide people in darkened area such as movie houses. They currently exist and use small fluorescent lights or ILEDs. OLEDs might make an attractive replacement for these technologies.Brand enhancement Not a road much travelled, but we believe that if costs for OLED lighting are reducedand packaging sufficiently (perhaps using printing), it could be added to smart packaging either for brandproducts enhancement or more practical applications such as indicating package tampering or (for pharma packaging) amounts of pills used. NanoMarkets thin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  13. 13. Comparison of Light Source Parameters 13 Fluorescent ILED OLEDEfficacy 80-100 lm/W 80-130 White Currently 25-60 lm/W but could rise to over 100 lm/W.Wattage CFL 15 W 1.1W Packaged white LED Presumably wattages of OLED luminaires will Linear fluorescent 95W 10.5 W LED lamp emerge in the 5W to 15 W rangeLuminous Output CFL 950 lm 85 to 140 lm Packaged white Current standard for OLED panels is 3,000 lm/m². Linear fluorescent 2,900 lm LED. 650 lm LED lamp To expand to 10,000 lm/m² by 2015. (DOE)CRI 80-85 80 –white 95 has been achieved at 40 lm/W. OLED materials 90 warm white promise some competitive advantages in this areaGlare Mediocre N/A Potentially excellentCost of Low because of high volumes Low because of high volumes Potentially very low through the use of R2R andmanufacturing printing processesTotal cost of Mediocre but better than At present somewhat better Potentially excellentownership incandescent than a CFLEnvironmental/ Dubious because of mercury Burns very hot, otherwise good Potentially excellentSafetyForm Factor Gas filled tube (traditional or Chip – high intensity point light Large area ultra-thin panel compact) sourceLifetime (LT70) 8 50-60 5-20 at present. Big improvements expected; 30-(khours) 50 expected in the next few years. 100 is possibleDimmable Yes, with special dimmers but Yes and efficiency increases Yes and efficiency increases when dimmed efficiency degrades when dimmedColor tunable No Yes YesFlexible No Limited Inherently flexibleNoise Yes No NoSwitching lifetime Poor Excellent ExcellentNanoMarkets thin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  14. 14. OLED Lighting: Markets and Timetables 14Market/Niche Business Case Challenges TimingLuxury lighting Capitalize on existing channels and There is only so much that Some products now, but take-off wealthy consumers. Price not can be done with small rigid likely in 2011 and beyond major factor. Product types OLED panels establishedMood lighting Fits well with the panel format/low- Cost, achieving flexibility, Expect to see product luminance of OLEDs. Flexibility and and establishing marketing development in the 2012 and tunability also important channels for new product beyond timeframeOffice and factory Offers a replacement for Luminance, energy Higher luminance and largerlighting fluorescent lighting with smoother, efficiency and panel size panels than can now be higher quality light and improved achieved. Perhaps not until 2014 aesthetics or 2015Architectural Likely to include premium products The need for large panels is Some projects soon. SignificantLighting and large panels a major challenge market evolution beyond 2012Smart Windows Novel products, such as windows Transparency , flexibility and Not a focus of any firm atand Textiles that are lights at night, may offer integration technology. present. Could emerge beyond cost savings and aesthetic Marketing for novel 2015 advantages products may be hardAutomotive Replacement of existing EL Automotive industry is cost Several firms working in thislighting technology in dash with higher sensitive with regard to space now, but first products not luminance products. Mood lighting components likely to emerge until 2012 or so for cars NanoMarkets thin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  15. 15. 15 Other OLED Lighting Markets • “Designer kits.” Osram, Philips and Lumiotec currently offer. Attempt to create market. Not a product in itself • Signage. Mainly EL replacement for emergency lights, etc. Some products available already. OLEDs not the best choice for outdoor signage • Backlights. Mainly alternative for simple backlights for watches, segmented displays, etc. Replacement of backlighting for AM LCD displays seems unlikely, although widely talked about at one point • Packaging, toys and novelties. Includes everything from high-value (pharmaceutical or perfume) packaging to Christmas ornaments • Outdoor lighting and signage. Main challenge is encapsulationNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  16. 16. 16 Key Forecast/Scenario Assumptions • Regulation. Regulations phasing out incandescent bulbs will open up markets for OLED and LED penetration. Note: There are still some uncertainties about how fast regulations will actually be implemented • Addressable markets. Lighting unit shipments will decline as SSL deployment raises average lifetimes. So OLED lighting business cases must be built around a declining addressable market. • Pricing. Most uncertain part of the forecast is pricing. Even the basis for OLED lighting pricing is uncertain. It is hard to compare with conventional and ILEDs, because of panel format. $ per square is not appropriate to other kinds of lights.NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  17. 17. 17 Summary of OLED Lighting Market by Application 12,000 Other 10,000 Signage 8,000 Personal ilumination products $ Millions 6,000 Vehicular Lighting 4,000 Architectural and specialized industrial 2,000 lighting General illumination 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  18. 18. 18 Pricing Issues and Strategies • OLED lighting is further behind other kinds of lighting in terms of pricing than any other parameter. • Fluorescent lights are just $2-4 per kilolumen and LEDs are about $130 per kilolumen. But OLEDs are around $300 per kilolumen (DOE numbers) • Major improvement expected and DOE says $8-9 for OLEDs by 2015. This assumes a lot about processes, materials and economies of scale, but would make OLEDs competitive for premium general lighting products • In NanoMarkets’ forecasts we assume that something like the DOE pricing scenario can be achieved. Some observers believe that OLEDs will be able to do better than thisNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  19. 19. 19 Company Product Pricing Add-Vision Direct materials cost based on Add- Cost of emissive areas of $0.24 per square inch, Visions semi-proprietary materials and and just $0.08 for non-emissive areas processes Kaneka Kaneka will offer OLED square panels Said to cost around ¥2 million (approx. $24,000) in five colors (warm white, red, per square meter—and the company believes that orange, blue and green) the price will drop to ¥200,000 ($2,400) in 2012 and to ¥50,000 ($600) or less by 2020 Lumiotec Designer OLED kits "Version 2.0" 145 x 145 mm kits are $360. Modistech Currently selling a 150 x 150-mm white Modistech has said that its OLED lights will be lighting "film" in Korea. available for around $212 per square meter by 2011 Philips Lumiblade designer kit OLED driver and electronics is priced at €70 ($93), with small pre-shaped OLEDs ranging from €72 to €248 ($96 to $330) Osram Orbeos product €250 TechnoCorp Future products Goal is $65 per square meter OLED100 EU R&D project aims to create OLED The target cost of these modules is €100/m2 lighting devices with 100-lm/W ($133/m2) or less efficiency, more than 100,000-hour lifetime and 100-by-100-cm module size.NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  20. 20. 20 OLED Lighting Scenario I: EL Replacement --The Worst That Can Happen • The actual worst that could happen would be that OLED lighting never proves viable and disappears as a research program in a few years • But OLEDs seem to be superior to EL lighting in many applications and also seem suited to luxury lighting; they are getting the attention of designers • Luxury lighting can never be a big market. A few thousand units at $1,000+ per luminaire and over, puts market in the tens of millions of dollars once developed • OLEDs could be positioned as next-generation EL. EL lighting is a slow- growing market of around $200-300 million. If OLED lighting gets 70% share it would generate up to $210 million; a lot more than luxury lightsNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  21. 21. 21 OLED Lighting Scenario II: Mood Lighting --Mass Market • Mood lighting is the first possible mass for OLED lighting. It’s performance fits market needs and addressable markets are large; potentially many millions of units • The “proof” is that the luminance of OLED lighting is already close to being suitable for mood lighting and the panel format is also a fit. Flexibility would also be helpful, but not essential • Addressable markets would expand rapidly as price declines. But there are relatively price insensitive markets (transport, prestige buildings, etc.) that are ready for it now • Mood lighting markets could reach several hundred million dollars, making OLED lighting a significant opportunity for major lighting, electronics and home products storesNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  22. 22. 22 OLED Lighting Scenario III: Breaking Into General Lighting • LEDs have been made to fit in with existing formats. Consider LED “bulbs” and “tubes.” This will be hard – but not impossible – for OLEDs. OLED lighting is intrinsically panel-like • Breakthrough will come if OLEDs can be made into panels that can replace fluorescent panels. This probably won’t happen until 2015, when these panels are large enough (maybe 1,600 m²) and bright enough (10,000 lm/m²) to do the job • Replacing CFLs in residential lighting will require a radical acceptance of total cost of ownership by residential consumers. This will not be easy to achieve, because it is unclear how consumers discount for future cost savings. But light quality might be a compelling advantage for OLED lighting • Major firms including GE and Philips see mass markets emerging around 2015NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  23. 23. 23 NanoMarkets’ OLED General Lighting Forecast ($ Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Worldwide consumption 16.2 15.3 14.4 13.4 12.3 11.2 10.1 of light bulbs, tubes and panels (billions) Penetration by OLEDs 0.0005 0.0026 0.0083 0.033 0.12 0.42 1.30 (%) OLED panels shipped 0.08 0.4 1.2 4.5 15.2 47.0 131.2 (millions) Price per panel ($) 400.0 300.0 207.0 142.8 92.8 58.5 35.7 Market ($ millions) 31.6 120.0 248.4 637.6 1,410.7 2,749.8 4,680.0NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  24. 24. 24 The Devils Advocate: How Seriously Should You Take These Forecasts? • Assumes good technological progress on OLEDs over next few years, along with success of early manufacturing plants. Technological progress has been impressive so far, but we can’t be sure it will continue and OLEDs still lag behind LEDs and CFLs • Assumes good customer acceptance. This is far from proven as yet. Indeed, most potential customers don’t know that OLED lighting exists or even, in many cases, that incandescent lighting is being phased out • Ramp up to 2014-2015 mass market take off, could be too optimistic. This could make the years 2013-2015 much lower revenues than we show here. On the other hand, our penetration assumptions are quite modest, so eventual revenues could be significantly larger. The next iteration of the NanoMarkets OLED lighting forecast will take a more granular look at the likely market evolutionNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  25. 25. 25 Some Conclusions • Significant technical, materials and marketing challenges ahead. Forecasts rely on economies of scale, R2R manufacturing successes, materials price declines and customer acceptance. They also rely on the kind of OLED lighting products that are likely to emerge • OLED lighting does not seem likely to compete with CFLs and LEDs on conventional parameters, except color quality in the foreseeable future. Must therefore compete on unique features: panel format, flexibility, tunability and transparency • The medium-to-long term market opportunity for OLED lighting is contingent on regulations phasing out incandescent bulbs. But this will also lead to early saturation of the market • At the very least, OLEDs should be able to capture EL alternative market, plus luxury lighting market. Mood lighting market seems likely too. To meet the expectations of large players, OLEDs need to create cost effective panel lighting for general lightingNanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  26. 26. 26 Lawrence Gasman Lawrence Gasman is the Principal Analyst at NanoMarkets and one of its co-founders. He also heads up NanoMarkets’ OLED lighting industry research program. Mr. Gasmans consulting clients have included multinationals, start-ups and investors and he has advised them on new product introduction, market positioning and strategy, and sales potential. He has also provided due diligence on mergers and acquisitions for his financial clients and serves on the technology advisory board of a major specialty chemicals firm. Mr. Gasman has also spoken and written widely on the subject of new materials markets. His recent appearances have included talks at Semicon West, 2011Flex, and LED/OLED Lighting Japan. Mr. Gasmans latest book is on the commercialization of nanotechnology for Artech House. Mr. Gasman was educated at Manchester University, The London School of Economics and London Business School.NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
  27. 27. 27 Contact NanoMarkets, LC Phone: 804-360-2967NanoMarketsthin film l organic l printable l electronics © 2011, NanoMarkets, LC