MBA 6211 Managerial Decision Making Moving Average Analysis Payoff / Sensitivity Analysis: Consistency Increases Team Performance Regression Analysis: Turnovers and Total Points Impact on Wins Regression Analysis: Good Decisions Increase Value Conclusion and Recommendations

1. MBA 6211
Managerial Decision Making
Ayasha Amatya
Yekaterina Golovanova
Gaziul Khan
Megan Zuniga

2. Moving Averages
First Downs Interceptions
Touchdowns

3. ● Table compares statistics from seasons between 2002 to 2006 for Tom
Brady and three other quarterbacks that were drafted around the same
time as him. The statistics used are passing touchdowns and passing
yards.
● Brady’s statistics show as best possible outcomes for the maximax,
maximin and the minimax regret with the number of touchdowns. The
table shows that choosing Brady leads to the least regret.
● Brady shows as the best outcome for the maximin and the minimax
regret for the total passing yards. Although Bulger resulted in the best
outcome for the maximax in this area, Brady is the decision that leads to
the least amount of regret.
● The equally likely shows that if the “good” state happened 50% of the
time, Brady would be the best decision.
● The sensitivity graph for touchdowns shows that Tom Brady is the
dominant choice. Although Bulger surpasses Brady when probability
reaches 0.9, Brady’s performance shows more consistency and has had
a longer career than Bulger, as Bulger’s last year in the NFL was 2009.
Decision Payoff Table/Sensitivity Graph

4. ● Between the seasons of 2007 to 2011, Tom Brady shows as the best
decision when looking at the data collectively.
● Although Bulger shows as the best outcome for the maximin for
touchdowns, Brady dominates by resulting as the best outcome for the
maximax, minimax regret, and equally likely.
● Table for the total passing yards also shows Brady as the best decision
collectively. Bulger was the better outcome for the maximin but Brady
shows as the option leading to the least regret.
● Sensitivity graphs for both touchdowns and passing yards show a
significant dominance when choosing Tom Brady.
Decision Payoff Table/Sensitivity Graph (cont.)

5. Regression Analysis: Turnovers and Total
Points Impact on Wins
Y = 9.1544 + 0.1064(X1) +
0.0163(X2)
where
X1 – Turnover Ratio
X2 – Number of Points

6. Regression Analysis: Turnovers and Total
Points Impact on Wins (cont.)
The Correlation Matrix
R1 = 0.72 - strong correlation
The more offensive turnovers, the more chances to win
R2 = 0.63 - moderate correlation
The more total points gained, the more chances to win

7. Regression Analysis : Team Valuation
During the 10 yr period between 2002 and 2011, The achievement of the Patriots as a team
were significant.
• Won 77% of the games they played in
• Won 3 Super bowls
• Tripled the valuation of the team
Indicating good decisions made by the management delivering positive results
Positive Correlation between Value, Operating Income, Touchdowns and Payroll

8. Regression Analysis : Team Valuation (cont.)
• Equation Derived from Regression:
Y=40.946 + X1*4.923 –X2*-0.396+X3*7.594
• Forecasted Value for 2012 using equation
= $1433.50
• Actual value of the Patriots in 2012
= $1800.00
Source Data
Forecasted independent variables using moving average:

9. THANK YOU