A brief summary of the climate predictions and expected impacts for Northern Bruce Peninsula.

1. Call to Action
NBP Climate Action Plan (2022-2030) 9
The Science of a Changing Climate
Greenhouse gases are a critical, naturally occurring part of the proper functioning of the earth’s environment. Many occur
naturally in the atmosphere and help the planet absorb sufficient heat to make it hospitable for life. In recent centuries,
however, human activity – particularly since the dawn of the industrial age – has dramatically increased the quantity of
greenhouse gases. This has resulted in a gradual warming of the planet. While the amounts of this warming may appear
small – 0.8o
C since the end of the 19th
century, with more than 2o
C expected by the end of the 21st
century – the impacts
are profound.
Figure 5 – The Process of Climate Change
As with any scientific projection, there is uncertainty about how GHG emissions and climate change may evolve in the
decades ahead. As a result, climate scientists frequently evaluate the potential impact of climate change in terms of
different scenarios – each with different estimates for total emissions, temperature increases, and other climate impacts.
Figure 3 shows several examples of commonly used climate change scenarios and their impact on Canada. Each one varies
in terms of the extent of climate change that is present based on the amount of action society has taken to prevent it.
Regardless of scenario, however, the consequences are significant.

2. Call to Action
NBP Climate Action Plan (2022-2030) 10
Figure 6 – Climate Scenarios and Impact on Canada2
The following sections provides a summary of the key local impacts as a result of climate change. The data presented
assumes a “high carbon” scenario (i.e., RCP 8.5 from Figure 6 above) – thus reflecting a “worse case scenario” for climate
change, though one we are already dangerously close to experiencing.
Climate Change and the Bruce Peninsula
Though many of Northern Bruce Peninsula’s unique features make it less susceptible to climate change – for example, its
in-land location or mild climate – the community is not immune to its consequences. As shown in Figure 7 there are still
significant local impacts expected from climate change.
Figure 7 – Project Local Impacts of Climate Change
2
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) refer to different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions.

3. Call to Action
NBP Climate Action Plan (2022-2030) 11
At the core of climate change is the expected increase in temperatures as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases,
which trap more heat in the earth’s atmosphere. Per Figure 8, if current trends continue, Northern Bruce Peninsula could
expect to see a 6°C increase in average temperatures – with increases being particularly pronounced in the winter months.
Figure 8 – Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperatures
In addition to getting hotter, the Northern Bruce Peninsula can also expect to get wetter as well, with a significant expected
increase in seasonal precipitation. Overall, the community can expect to see an increase of 10-20% of annual precipitation
– with the impact most pronounced in winter months.
Figure 9 – Project Changes in Seasonal Precipitations

4. Call to Action
NBP Climate Action Plan (2022-2030) 12
The results of these trends will be significant. First, Northern Bruce Peninsula can expect to see changes in the length of
its seasons. Winters will become warmer, shorter, and involve more precipitation but less ice. By contrast, summers will
be longer with high levels of heat that are more likely to persist into the evenings – posing a threat to our community’s
most vulnerable as well as several economic sectors.
Climate change will also impact increased water levels along the community’s shorelines. While much of the global
concern is regarding coastal areas, communities along the Great Lakes such as Northern Bruce Peninsula are susceptible
to increased precipitation, erosion and run-off. For example, by the end of the century Lake Huron could see an increase
in its high-water mark by nearly 1.5 metres as a result of climate change – resulting in greater flooding and higher potential
for contamination of lake water due to run-off.
Climate change will also intensify major storms, as the warming of the planet adds additional moisture and energy to
storms. Extreme events will become more common – with greater potential for high winds, storm surges, and rapid

5. Call to Action
NBP Climate Action Plan (2022-2030) 13
rainfall. As a result, the major once-in-50-year-storms that most would expect to experience once or twice in their lifetimes
will eventually occur nearly every decade.
The higher temperatures will also bring with them a greater potential for wildfire. The fire season on the peninsula will
grow by nearly a month per year – with the increasingly hot conditions in the summer and struggling plant species raising
the potential for a major fire event.
All this climatic change will have dramatic consequences for the local ecosystem. For wildlife, a portion of existing species
will migrate north to find more hospitable climates – replaced by wildlife currently residing further south. Aquatic species
will increasingly find the warming lakes unsuitable for breeding and also be forced to migrate elsewhere in the Great Lakes
system. Tree species will see a similar gradual replacement – with as many as half of existing tree species no longer finding
the Bruce Peninsula’s climate suitable by the end of this century.

6. Call to Action
NBP Climate Action Plan (2022-2030) 14