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Brexit and the City of London
No Equivalent to the Financial Services Passport
Financial Services: Brexit – A Threat to the City of London's Position as
a Global Financial Center
Banking
'Passporting' and Banks
Passports Used by Banks and Financial Services Firms
 Fourth Capital Requirements Directive (CRD)
 Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID)
 Payment Services Directive (PSD)
Banks Outside the EU
Substitute for Passporting – 'Equivalence’
How Does the EU Use Equivalence?
U.K. Banks and Equivalence
Outlook for Bank Assets – Hard Brexit vs. Soft Brexit
Insurance
Passport in the Insurance Industry
Equivalence under Solvency II
Asset Management
Passports in Asset Management Industry
Conclusion
Table of Contents
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BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com 1
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
FINANCIAL SERVICES: BREXIT – A
THREAT TO THE CITY OF LONDON'S
POSITION AS A GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CENTER
For decades, the United Kingdom
(U.K.) has served as the financial
center not just for Europe, but for
the rest of the world as well.
Britain's trade surplus of GBP 63
Billion in financial services in 2015
was more than the combined
surplus of the next 3 countries –
the United States (U.S.),
Switzerland and Luxembourg. The
European Union's (EU) share of the
trade surplus was 67 percent of the
U.K.'s total trade surplus with the
1
world, at GBP 42 Billion. The U.K.
benefits economically from having
a strong financial and related
professional services sector,
underpinned by a strong regulatory
environment that is fair and
consistent, a conducive business
climate essential to the growth of
new products and ideas, easy
access to a single market, and
openness to foreign firms.
1. Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K.
and in attracting foreign
investment. The U.K. benefits
from its position as a leading
destination for companies
elsewhere in Europe operating in
retail financial services.
However, the Brexit referendum has
now cast a shadow over the future
of the U.K., and particularly
London's position as the global
center for financial services.
The benefits of the U.K.'s financial
services industry to Europe extend
beyond economic growth and job
creation. The industry functions as
a key determinant of how
European businesses fund their
investments, how pensions are paid
for, how investors hedge risks and
how public funding takes place.
Europe's easy access to a truly
global capital market helps reduce
cost of finance to EU companies,
Following the Brexit vote, London
slipped 13 points in the Zyen
Group's annual Global Financial
Centres Index, though it continued
to retain the number one position
as the world's best financial center.
The following pages will analyze
the current structure of the U.K.-EU
interrelationships with regard to
financial services and the impact of
Brexit on key industry subsectors.
Exhibit 1
U.K. Trade in Financial Services 2015
EU Non-EU
Source: ONS Trade Data
0 10,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
19,133
22,941
3,291
5,404
22,424
28,345
Exports
Imports
Balance
GBP Mn
5,000 15,000
wnsdecisionpoint.com2
2. TheCityUK, ‘Key Facts about the U.K. as an international financial center’, Nov 2016.
3. Ibid.
2
The U.K. has the third largest banking center globally. London hosts over 250 foreign banks – more than any
3
other center. The U.K. accounts for 17 percent of international bank lending – more than any other center. The EU
has the largest share in the U.K.'s banking sector by way of assets and claims.
Exhibit 2
Regional Share of Bank Assets
U.K. EU Japan USA
Source: Bank of England
U.K.
EU
Japan
USA
Exhibit 3
Bank Claims by Region
EU Australia Canada Japan New Zealand United States
Source: Bank of England
BANKING
Australia
CanadaNew Zealand
United States
EU
Japan
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com 3
The EU banks collectively held 17
percent of total bank assets in
December 2016, second only to the
U.K. banks, and surpassing both
Japan and U.S.-based banks. The
EU held 38 percent of the
consolidated claims of U.K.-owned
banks and their branches and
subsidiaries worldwide, second
only to the U.S., which held 41
percent of the claims.
The above statistics demonstrate
the importance of the EU to the
U.K.'s financial services sector and
vice-versa. This interdependence
between the two regions has been
made possible because of certain
regulations and systems, which
now need to be restructured in the
wake of the referendum.
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com4
For over two decades, the scope of
the EU single market has expanded
to trade in financial services, with a
particular focus on banking, made
possible by the harmonization of
regulatory framework and the
establishment of a single rulebook
of financial services across the EU.
In order to facilitate this trade in
financial services, EU states have
opened their national markets to
the provision of financial services
directly from other EU states, or by
making it easier to establish
branches and subsidiaries of banks
and financial services firms of
other EU states. Once a bank or
financial services firm is
established or authorized in one
EU country, it can apply for the
right to provide defined services
throughout the EU, or to open
branches in other countries across
the EU, with relatively few
additional authorization
requirements. This pan-EU
authorization is regarded as its
financial services 'passport'.
'PASSPORTING' AND BANKS
These passports are not available
to third-country firms, i.e. firms
incorporated outside the EU. Even
if a non-EU firm obtains a license
to conduct business in an EU
Member State, it will be able to
provide services only to customers
of that Member State, thereby
restricting its ability to conduct
pan-European business operations.
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
Payment Services
Directive (PSD)
wnsdecisionpoint.com 5
There are various types of passports that banks use, including core banking services such as lending and
deposit taking, market services such as sales and trading, asset management, payments services and electronic
money services.
An EU legislative package
encompassing prudential rules for
banks, building societies and
investment firms. U.K.-based banks
use it to provide advisory services,
lending or custody or deposit
services to a business in another
EU state. A U.K.-based bank may
also serve clients in the rest of the
EU through a branch established in
another EU state under the
preferential terms created by the
passporting framework.
passports to help clients buy and
sell shares, bonds or other financial
instruments and trade on
exchanges and trading venues
around the EU.
A U.K.-based bank might use its
CRD and MiFID passports to assist
a customer in an EU state in
arranging a line of credit, managing
an investment portfolio or to
4
advise on financial planning.
Eighteen top U.K.-based banks
use passporting to operate across
the EU. These banks are on
the brink of losing their
passporting rights, a major fallout
of the Brexit referendum.
This EU legislation regulates firms
who provide services to clients
linked to financial instruments, and
the venues where those
instruments are traded. It is used
by U.K.-based banks to help a
business in another EU state take a
derivatives position to hedge a
loan, debt issuance, or exchange
rate exposure through London-
based markets. The U.K.-based
banks also use their MiFID
It is a key piece of payments-
related legislation in Europe,
designed to develop the Single
Euro Payments Area (SEPA) and
regulate payment institutions.
4. British Bankers' Association, 'What is “passporting” and why does it matter?'
Fourth Capital
Requirements
Directive (CRD)
Markets in Financial
Instruments Directive
(MiFID)
PASSPORTS USED BY BANKS AND
FINANCIAL SERVICES FIRMS
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com6
Exhibit 4
U.K.-incorporated Banks Depend on Passporting
Source: Financial Times, Sept. 2016, Bank of England
Yes No
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Barclays bank
Totalassets(GBPMn)
Lloyds Bank
Royal Bank of Scotland
HSBC Bank
Goldman Sachs
Standard Chartered Bank
JPMorgan Securities
Bank of Scotland
National Westminster Bank
Santander U.K.
Credit Suisse
Abbey National
Treasury Services
UBC Limited
Clydesdale Back
Co-operative Back
Virgin Money
Bank of Ireland (U.K.)
RBC Europe Limited
Coutts & Company
Bank of America
Merrill Lynch
0 100,000 120,000
22,642
25,373
27,789
27,939
31,774
37,583
38,701
40,106
108,861
270,591
281,406
302,430
341,333
11,759
431,737
27,622
727,941
812,191
817,904
1,120,727
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
According to the U.K. Financial
Conduct Authority (FCA), 8,008
firms based in the European
Economic Area (EEA) make use of
23,532 passports to provide
financial services in the U.K.
Furthermore, out of 2,229
wnsdecisionpoint.com 7
companies and a total market cap
of GBP 4 Trillion, 112 companies
from other EU Member States are
listed on the London Stock
Exchange with a market cap of
5
GBP 378 Billion.
Exhibit 5
Source: FCA 2016
Number of Passports in Total
Number of Firms using Passporting
359,953 23,532
13,484 8,008
Total
Inbound
(into the U.K. from the EEA)
336,421
5,476
Outbound
(U.K. firms into the EEA)
How Does Passporting Work?
A passported U.K. bank can do the following:
 Provide its customers with the widest range of
banking services across the U.K. and all of 27 EU
countries
 Establish a branch in any other EU country from
which it can offer cross-border banking services to
other EU Member States
 Do so efficiently, without duplication and at low cost
What Does the Loss of Passporting
Mean?
Once outside the EU, a U.K. bank has no 'passports'.
Instead, it has to apply for a license for each EU
country:
 A license is not available in many EU countries
 The range of licensed banking services is much more
limited
 The license is usually available to one country at a
time, i.e. no cross-border rights
 Duplication and substantial additional costs
Exhibit 6
Source: British Bankers' Association
5. Financial Conduct Authority, U.K.
Importance of Passports in the U.K. Financial Services Industry
Passports used in the U.K. Financial Services industry
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com8
The passporting system has been
extended to cover the EEA, which
comprises the EU states and
Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
Passporting services are extended
to these countries based on their
commitment to honor the basic
freedoms of movement, capital,
goods and services in the EU
Treaties and to incorporate the EU
financial services rulebook into
their own domestic law.
The referendum has forced a large
number of banks to rethink their
future strategy in the U.K. in terms
of jobs, trade operations and EU
staff. In January 2017, HSBC and
UBS outlined plans to shift about
1,000 jobs each from the U.K. to
the EU. The same was already
announced by Citigroup, Deutsche
Bank and JP Morgan Chase. In July,
Deutsche Bank announced its plans
to establish a new Frankfurt
booking center to transfer most of
the investment banking assets that
it currently books in the U.K.
Deutsche Bank books hundreds of
billions of euros of non-U.K.
business through its London broker
dealer, which is the single biggest
EU bank branch operating in the
U.K. It will keep its London-based
booking center but this will only
serve clients in the U.K. and those
who have a preference for keeping
their contracts under British Law.
Citigroup has decided to base its
EU broker dealer, its main trading
operation, in Frankfurt and plans to
distribute other businesses across
Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin,
6
Luxembourg and Madrid. Lloyds of
London has confirmed that it will
set up a subsidiary in Brussels as its
new European base. The subsidiary
is expected to be up and running
by January 2019. Goldman Sachs
announced its plans to relocate
'hundreds of jobs' from Britain to
the EU. Several Japanese banking
giants such as Nomura, Daiwa and
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking
Corporation have confirmed their
plans to shift their European
headquarters to Frankfurt. In July
2017, Bank of America moved its
investment and market operations
to Dublin. It confirmed its plans to
move staff from the bank's London
office, which employs about
7
4,500 people.
Banks shifting large-scale business
operations along with their
European headquarters from the
U.K. to other places in the EU will
result in a loss of strategic bank
assets of the U.K., thereby causing
a serious blow to London's status
as the world's most favored
destination for business in financial
services. This also means high costs
associated with staff relocation and
setting up new office premises.
BANKS OUTSIDE
THE EU
6. Article by Financial Times, 'Citigroup and Deutsche Bank give Frankfurt a Brexit boost', July 2017.
7. Article by Financial Times, 'Bank of America chooses Dublin as EU base after Brexit', July 2017.
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com 9
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
Equivalence is a system pioneered
and developed by the EU, in which
one State asserts that the
standards of the other in a specific
area match its own and hence can
8
be pronounced 'equivalent'.
Equivalence has an important role
in financial services trade between
the U.K. and the EU. It is used by
the EU for two main things. Firstly,
it grants rights to non-EU Member
States to carry out certain defined
services within the EU. Secondly, it
defines the EU legislative and
regulatory framework for banks in
non-EU Member States to carry out
operations.
SUBSTITUTE FOR
PASSPORTING –
'EQUIVALENCE'
Some important examples of the
way the EU uses equivalence in
banking and related areas are:
 In assessing the regulatory
standards in their home market
of non-EU banks that operate
branches in the EU. These
judgments are reflected in the
way in which EU supervisors
treat foreign branches and
determine the imposition of
additional requirements. For
instance, these judgments are
used in determining how to
assess the risk posed by EU
banks taking exposures to banks
9
in these markets.
 In assessing the standards that
apply to market infrastructure in
countries outside the EU,
especially central counterparties
for clearing securities trades.
These judgments are used to
determine how freely EU firms
can use these market services to
10
clear trades.
 In assessing the data protection
standards of non-EU countries.
These judgments are used to
determine how freely the
personal data of EU citizens
can be moved by banks to
these countries for processing
11
or storage.
HOW DOES THE EU
USE
EQUIVALENCE?
8.British Bankers' Association, 'What is “equivalence” and how does it work?'
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
wnsdecisionpoint.com10
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
For the U.K. as a country outside
the EU, seeking access to the EU
single market based on judgments
of equivalence will mean weighing
various political and policy
priorities. There is currently no
equivalence regime applicable for
the EU's core banking rulebook –
the Capital Requirements Directive
(CRD IV). CRD IV applies to core
bank services such as lending and
12
deposit taking. This is the most
distinctive feature between the
breadth of the EU passporting
system for EU and U.K. banks and
the restrictive treatment of non-EU
banks under the limited
equivalence frameworks.
The EU has recommended a limited
number of equivalence regimes
that would allow non-EU banks to
export specific services to EU
Member States. One of them is the
Markets in Financial Instruments
Directive II (MiFID II). This covers a
range of investment services,
including the design, sale and
trading of securities and the
provision of investment advice, all
the central functions of an
investment bank. However, the
services covered by MiFID II are
narrower in scope and coverage in
comparison to those under the
13
MiFID Passport.
U.K. BANKS AND
EQUIVALENCE
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
Exhibit 7
What Does Equivalence Mean After Brexit?
Source: British Bankers' Association
Advantages  Some limited market access or operational rights
in the EU
 Some limited rights for EU banks to trade in the
U.K. or with U.K. based banks
 May facilitate the use of U.K. as a base for
exporting financial services to EU states
under an equivalence regime
For U.K. based Banks For the U.K.
Disadvantages  Granting equivalence uncertain
 Activation of key equivalence regimes such as the
proposed MiFID third-country framework
uncertain
 Equivalence-based market access frameworks
currently not available in most EU Member States
 Loss of equivalence can materially affect
operational or market access rights
 Against the basic tenets of judicial and
regulatory independence that led to the
U.K. referendum
wnsdecisionpoint.com 11
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
wnsdecisionpoint.com12
Exhibit 8
Passporting and Equivalence under Brexit Scenarios
TM
Source: British Bankers' Association; WNS DecisionPoint Analysis
The Fourth
Capital
Requirements
Directive
(CRD IV)
Core bank services
such as lending and
deposit taking
and corporate
advisory services
Passport not possible; No
market access rights for non-
EU banks. Banks and other
deposit taking institutions will
have to relocate to be able to
continue with Euro-
denominated lending and
deposit taking activities
Passport possible;
cross-border rights
across the single
market and local
treatment for
branch operations
No Equivalence
regime
Service or Activity
Covered
PASSPORT/
DIRECTIVE
Hard Brexit – No Access
to Single Market
Soft Brexit – Access
to Single Market
(EEA/Norway Model)
Decision-Making
Authority on
Equivalence
The Second
Markets in
Financial
Instruments
Directive
(MiFID II)
Range of investment
and market services,
including the design,
sale and trading of
securities and the
provision of
investment advice
Passport not possible; No
specific arrangements for an
equivalence regime. Firms will
have to obtain authorization
under the regulatory regimes
of each Member State in which
they want to operate
Passport possible;
Equivalence will
give limited rights
with regard to
MiFID services; not
been activated
A combination of:
European
Securities and
Markets Authority,
the European
Commission and
EU Council
The Second
Payments
Services
Directive
(PSD II)
Payments Services Passport not possible; No
specific arrangements for an
equivalence regime. Firms will
have to obtain authorization
under the regulatory regimes
of each Member State in which
they want to operate
Passport possible;
No market access for
non-EU service
providers under
Equivalence
No Equivalence
regime
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
The five-year outlook for the U.K.'s
consolidated bank assets can be
assessed in two scenarios – Hard
vs. Soft Brexit. A hard Brexit means
the U.K.'s complete departure from
the EU single market and a
subsequent loss of passporting
rights for majority of the banks that
rely on these to conduct cross-
border business with the EU. The
biggest loss will be for the non-U.K.
banks, which control majority of
the bank assets in the U.K. The
U.K.'s status will be reduced to that
of a third country which will have
to determine a new set of financial
services trading framework with
the EU.
The current uncertainty regarding
Brexit negotiations has had an
impact on the banking sector in
two ways. Firstly, with a large
number of banks already in the
process of shifting their European
headquarters and consequently
majority of their business and trade
operations from London to other
parts of the EU, the U.K. will see a
loss in its consolidated assets over
the medium term. The decline in
assets will continue until mid-2019,
when the Brexit framework has
been finalized and the U.K. has
officially departed from the EU.
Bank assets will see some
stabilization from 2019 onwards,
and will pick up from 2019 to 2021,
when the U.K. political framework
post Brexit is in its final form.
Secondly, the initial impact of the
referendum has been the
depreciation of the sterling,
resulting in higher costs for
companies exposed to imports and
a more favorable environment for
exporters. Rising domestic costs
resulting from higher import prices
may impact household incomes
and affordability of consumer loans
and home loans, important subsets
of bank assets. This, in turn, may
affect businesses dependent on
consumers for revenue. Real estate
markets, both commercial and
residential, have also been
impacted negatively leading to a
lowering of value.
Bank assets will continue to decline
in the near term, as a direct fallout
from banks moving their
operations from the U.K. to the EU
and a declining sterling, but how
fast they pick up and the
magnitude of the increase from
2019–2021 will be determined by
the final framework of Brexit and
the deal the U.K. ultimately strikes
with the EU. The U.K. stands to lose
a large number of assets by the
end of the Brexit negotiations in
the event of an exit from the single
market and loss of their
passporting rights. A soft Brexit,
with continued access to the single
market and retention of
passporting privileges for banks,
will imply a healthy growth in
assets in the forecast period from
2019–2021.
OUTLOOK FOR
BANK ASSETS –
HARD BREXIT VS.
SOFT BREXIT
wnsdecisionpoint.com 13
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
Exhibit 9
Forecast for Bank Assets
Soft Brexit Hard Brexit
TM
Source: WNS DecisionPoint forecast based on data from European Central Bank. Includes Domestic Banking groups and standalone banks, foreign
(EU and non-EU) controlled subsidiaries and foreign controlled branches
8,500,000 9,500,000 10,500,000 11,000,000 11,500,000 12,000,000
9,848,171
9,790,176
9,645,385
9,635,772
9,613,676
9,613,676
2017
2018
2019
USD Mn
9,000,000 10,000,000
11,446,647
10,248,394
10,531,652
9,980,124
2020
2021
wnsdecisionpoint.com14
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
According to data published by
the Association of British Insurers
(ABI), the U.K. insurance market
happens to be the largest in
Europe and the third largest in the
world, and contributed GBP 29
Billion to the U.K.'s Gross Domestic
14
Product (GDP).
The U.K. insurance market differs
from the London Market. The wider
U.K. insurance market refers to the
underwriting by insurers of
standard insurance policies, such
as home, motor etc., while the
London Market has become, over
time, a leading market for specialty
commercial insurance and
reinsurance business, providing
coverage for complex or wholesale
specialty risks such as natural
catastrophes, marine and aviation,
and where virtually all business is
placed by brokers on behalf of
their clients. Insurers and
reinsurers, Llyod's syndicates and
managing agents form part of the
ecosystem of the London Market
that is worth an estimated GBP 60
Billion in gross written insurance
15
premiums.
Currently, over GBP 8 Billion of
premium is brought annually to the
London Insurance Market by
brokers on behalf of EU customers.
Over GBP 6 Billion of international
business is written in London by
firms with a parent company or
principal base located elsewhere in
the EU, demonstrating the
importance of continuing mutual
market access between the U.K.
16
and the EU post Brexit.
14. Association of British Insurers.
15. European Parliament Briefing Papers, 'Brexit: The United Kingdom and EU financial services'.
16. London Market Group, 'A Brexit Roadmap for the U.K. Specialty Commercial Insurance Sector'.
INSURANCE
The Solvency II Directive, which
became applicable on January 1
2016, is the EU directive for
insurance companies. It is based on
requirement rules pertaining to the
valuation of assets and capital, risk
management and disclosure. It is
the 'passport' through which
insurers operate in other EU
Member States through branches
and sell products and services
across borders.
PASSPORT IN THE
INSURANCE
INDUSTRY
wnsdecisionpoint.com 15
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
In the event of a hard Brexit and
the subsequent loss of their
passporting privileges, insurers
have the option of relying on
Equivalence to be able to continue
their cross-border operation with
the EU.
If the solvency regime applied to
reinsurance activities of a third
country is found equivalent,
reinsurance contracts concluded
with reinsurers established in that
third country shall be treated in the
same way as reinsurance contracts
concluded with EU reinsurers
(Article 172 of the Solvency II
Directive). As a result, Member
States may not consider contracts
concluded with third countries less
favorable than those concluded
with EU insurers (Article 172-173).
Thus, these provisions provide
reinsurers with passporting rights.
In case third-country insurers
pursue activities in the EU as a
parent undertaking of an EU
insurer, an equivalence decision
under Article 260 of the Solvency II
Directive exempts these insurers
from some aspects of group
supervision and requires Member
States to rely on the group
supervision exercised by that third
country. Supervisors of Member
States will then form a college led
by the third-country group
supervisor. Also, Solvency II
does not include a third-country
regime for solo entities of
17
third-country insurers.
Furthermore, if an EU-based
insurer pursues activities in third
countries, the presence of an
equivalence decision under Article
227 allows them to carry out the
solvency calculations for prudential
reporting for the subsidiary in the
third country in compliance with
the rules of that country instead of
18
rules under Solvency II.
The future of the U.K.-EU insurance
industry is reliant upon how clearly
the equivalence framework is spelt
out during Brexit negotiations in
the face of a hard Brexit, while a
soft Brexit will imply continuance
of cross-border rights for insurers.
EQUIVALENCE
UNDER
SOLVENCY II
17. European Parliament Directorate-General for Internal Policies, 'Implication of Brexit on EU Financial Services, 2017'.
18. Ibid.
wnsdecisionpoint.com16
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
Assets under management (AuM) in Europe reached EUR 22.8 Trillion by the end of 2016, bringing the size of the
industry to 138 percent of the GDP. Investment fund assets accounted for 51.8 percent of all AuM, totaling EUR
19
11,800 Billion, whereas discretionary mandates represented 48.2 percent of total AuM, or EUR 11,000 Billion.
Exhibit 10
European AuM at end 2015 (EUR Billion) and AuM/GDP (Percent)
Source: European Fund and Asset Management Association, May 2017
AuMCountries % Change in 2015 Market Share AuM/GDP
19. European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA), 'Asset Management in Europe', 9th edition, Facts and Figures, May 2017.
20. Ibid.
ASSET MANAGEMENT
wnsdecisionpoint.com 17
U.K. 7791 6% 36.3% 320%
France
Germany
Switzerland
Netherlands
Italy
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
Portugal
Turkey
Czech Republic
Hungary
Greece
Rest of Europe
Total
3787
2026
1466
1244
1156
367
279
104
81
48
35
28
11
3047
21469
5%
9%
2%
1%
10%
3%
8%
3%
7%
4%
n.a.
5%
20%
6%
6%
17.6%
9.4%
6.8%
5.8%
5.4%
1.7%
1.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.05%
14.2%
100%
174%
67%
242%
184%
70%
135%
68%
31%
45%
7%
21%
25%
6%
102%
132%
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
In the area of collective investment
schemes, European law currently
comprises two main pieces of
legislation covering two types of
harmonized investment funds –
Undertakings for Collective
Investment in Transferable
Securities Directive (UCITS) and
Alternative Investment Fund
Managers Directive (AIFMD).
Designed to enhance the single
market while maintaining high
levels of investor protection, the
AIFMD is the main passport used
by non-EU investment fund
companies to conduct business
across the EU. The aim of the
AIFMD is to set up a regulatory
framework for monitoring the risks
posed by unregulated investment
funds. The directive targets fund
managers. The AIFMD includes
requirements for authorization,
registration of the fund manager,
conduct of business, regulatory
capital, safekeeping of investments,
22
marketing and leverage.
Access to EU markets for U.K. fund
managers will be negatively
impacted in case of a hard Brexit
since the UCITS directive does not
have a third-country regime with
European Commission equivalence
in place for third-country
alternative investment fund
managers (AIFMs) and third-
country alternative investment
funds (AIFs). Under AIFMD, third-
country AIFs either need an
authorized EU AIFM to market their
units or shares in the EU or the
third-country AIFM needs to be
authorized by the competent
authority of the 'Member State of
reference'. These requirements
effectively mean that the third-
country AIF and the third-country
AIFM need to comply with the
AIFMD rules in order to benefit
23
from the EU passport.
PASSPORTS IN
ASSET
MANAGEMENT
INDUSTRY
21. Ibid.
22. Financial Times Lexicon.
23. European Parliament Directorate-General for Internal Policies, 'Implication of Brexit on EU Financial Services, 2017'.
The majority of the investment
fund assets managed in Europe
remain concentrated in a small set
of European countries. The U.K.,
followed by France and Germany,
is the biggest asset management
market in Europe. Altogether these
three countries own 63 percent of
the total AuM in Europe, reflecting
20
the size of their economies.
The large AuM/GDP ratios in the
U.K. (320 percent), Switzerland
(242 percent), the Netherlands
(184 percent), France (174 percent)
and Denmark (135 percent) give an
indication of the relative
importance of asset managers in
these countries, and the
responsibility they have taken in
21
managing investors' assets.
wnsdecisionpoint.com18
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
The financial services industry is
the backbone of the EU-U.K. trade
in services. Its success is essential
for the sustenance of both the EU's
and U.K.'s positions as unrivalled
centers of financial business
excellence. The industry in both
the regions draws its strength from
the mutually beneficial economic
and political partnership between
them, built and sustained over
centuries. However, the events of
CONCLUSION
the last one year pose a threat to
this successful partnership. The
Brexit referendum of 2016 has
shaken the foundations of the
banking, insurance and asset
management industries in these
regions. With the Brexit
negotiations seeming to hit a
roadblock and consequently
jeopardizing the City of London's
future as a favorite of the world's
leading financial groups, we can
expect more financial firms shifting
the majority of their operations
from London to other cities in the
EU. If London has to safeguard its
position as the world's most
favored destination for business in
financial services, it is for the
politicians in the U.K. and Brussels
to reach an amicable agreement
that ensures regulatory fairness for
all parties concerned.
wnsdecisionpoint.com 19
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
Making key decisions that improve business
performance requires more than simple insights.
It takes deep data discovery and a keen problem
solving approach to think beyond the obvious.
As a business leader, you ought to have access to
information most relevant to you that helps you
anticipate potential business headwinds and craft
strategies which can turn challenges into
opportunities finally leading to favorable
business outcomes.
TM
WNS DecisionPoint , a one-of-its kind thought
leadership platform tracks industry segments served
by WNS and presents thought-provoking original
perspectives based on rigorous data analysis and
custom research studies. Coupling empirical data
analysis with practical ideas around the application of
analytics, disruptive technologies, next-gen customer
experience, process transformation and business
model innovation, WNS aims to arm you with decision
support frameworks based on 'points of fact.' Drawing
on our experience from working with 200+ clients
around the world in key industry verticals, and
knowledge collaboration with carefully selected
partners including Knowledge@Wharton, each
research asset comes up with actionable insights with
the goal of bringing the future forward.
About DecisionPoint
wnsdecisionpoint.com20
BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON
NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
All materials and software published on or used here are protected by copyright, and are owned or controlled by or licensed to WNS (Holdings) Limited
(WNS), or the party listed as the provider of the materials. UNAUTHORIZED COPYING, REPRODUCTION, REPUBLISHING, UPLOADING, POSTING,
TRANSMITTING OR DUPLICATING OF ANY OF THE MATERIAL IS PROHIBITED. You may use it for personal, noncommercial and informational purposes,
provided that the documents are not modified and provided you include the following copyright notice in such downloaded materials: © Copyright 2016
WNS (Holdings) Limited. All rights reserved. Some of the information contained herein is extracted from various publications and publicly available
information of other companies on their website or other resources, and WNS makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information. WNS makes no representation that all information relating to these companies/WNS and its businesses has been included.
Copyright notice and disclaimer:
A credible insights hub for companies looking
to transform their strategies and operations by
aligning with today’s realities and tomorrow’s
disruptions.
Email: perspectives@wnsdecisionpoint.com
Website: wnsdecisionpoint.com
@WNSDecisionPt WNS DecisionPoint WNS DecisionPoint

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Brexit impact financial services

  • 1. Brexit and the City of London No Equivalent to the Financial Services Passport
  • 2. Financial Services: Brexit – A Threat to the City of London's Position as a Global Financial Center Banking 'Passporting' and Banks Passports Used by Banks and Financial Services Firms  Fourth Capital Requirements Directive (CRD)  Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID)  Payment Services Directive (PSD) Banks Outside the EU Substitute for Passporting – 'Equivalence’ How Does the EU Use Equivalence? U.K. Banks and Equivalence Outlook for Bank Assets – Hard Brexit vs. Soft Brexit Insurance Passport in the Insurance Industry Equivalence under Solvency II Asset Management Passports in Asset Management Industry Conclusion Table of Contents 01 02 04 05 05 05 05 08 10 10 11 13 15 15 16 17 18 19 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 3. wnsdecisionpoint.com 1 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT FINANCIAL SERVICES: BREXIT – A THREAT TO THE CITY OF LONDON'S POSITION AS A GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTER For decades, the United Kingdom (U.K.) has served as the financial center not just for Europe, but for the rest of the world as well. Britain's trade surplus of GBP 63 Billion in financial services in 2015 was more than the combined surplus of the next 3 countries – the United States (U.S.), Switzerland and Luxembourg. The European Union's (EU) share of the trade surplus was 67 percent of the U.K.'s total trade surplus with the 1 world, at GBP 42 Billion. The U.K. benefits economically from having a strong financial and related professional services sector, underpinned by a strong regulatory environment that is fair and consistent, a conducive business climate essential to the growth of new products and ideas, easy access to a single market, and openness to foreign firms. 1. Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K. and in attracting foreign investment. The U.K. benefits from its position as a leading destination for companies elsewhere in Europe operating in retail financial services. However, the Brexit referendum has now cast a shadow over the future of the U.K., and particularly London's position as the global center for financial services. The benefits of the U.K.'s financial services industry to Europe extend beyond economic growth and job creation. The industry functions as a key determinant of how European businesses fund their investments, how pensions are paid for, how investors hedge risks and how public funding takes place. Europe's easy access to a truly global capital market helps reduce cost of finance to EU companies, Following the Brexit vote, London slipped 13 points in the Zyen Group's annual Global Financial Centres Index, though it continued to retain the number one position as the world's best financial center. The following pages will analyze the current structure of the U.K.-EU interrelationships with regard to financial services and the impact of Brexit on key industry subsectors. Exhibit 1 U.K. Trade in Financial Services 2015 EU Non-EU Source: ONS Trade Data 0 10,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 19,133 22,941 3,291 5,404 22,424 28,345 Exports Imports Balance GBP Mn 5,000 15,000
  • 4. wnsdecisionpoint.com2 2. TheCityUK, ‘Key Facts about the U.K. as an international financial center’, Nov 2016. 3. Ibid. 2 The U.K. has the third largest banking center globally. London hosts over 250 foreign banks – more than any 3 other center. The U.K. accounts for 17 percent of international bank lending – more than any other center. The EU has the largest share in the U.K.'s banking sector by way of assets and claims. Exhibit 2 Regional Share of Bank Assets U.K. EU Japan USA Source: Bank of England U.K. EU Japan USA Exhibit 3 Bank Claims by Region EU Australia Canada Japan New Zealand United States Source: Bank of England BANKING Australia CanadaNew Zealand United States EU Japan BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 5. wnsdecisionpoint.com 3 The EU banks collectively held 17 percent of total bank assets in December 2016, second only to the U.K. banks, and surpassing both Japan and U.S.-based banks. The EU held 38 percent of the consolidated claims of U.K.-owned banks and their branches and subsidiaries worldwide, second only to the U.S., which held 41 percent of the claims. The above statistics demonstrate the importance of the EU to the U.K.'s financial services sector and vice-versa. This interdependence between the two regions has been made possible because of certain regulations and systems, which now need to be restructured in the wake of the referendum. BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 6. wnsdecisionpoint.com4 For over two decades, the scope of the EU single market has expanded to trade in financial services, with a particular focus on banking, made possible by the harmonization of regulatory framework and the establishment of a single rulebook of financial services across the EU. In order to facilitate this trade in financial services, EU states have opened their national markets to the provision of financial services directly from other EU states, or by making it easier to establish branches and subsidiaries of banks and financial services firms of other EU states. Once a bank or financial services firm is established or authorized in one EU country, it can apply for the right to provide defined services throughout the EU, or to open branches in other countries across the EU, with relatively few additional authorization requirements. This pan-EU authorization is regarded as its financial services 'passport'. 'PASSPORTING' AND BANKS These passports are not available to third-country firms, i.e. firms incorporated outside the EU. Even if a non-EU firm obtains a license to conduct business in an EU Member State, it will be able to provide services only to customers of that Member State, thereby restricting its ability to conduct pan-European business operations. BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 7. Payment Services Directive (PSD) wnsdecisionpoint.com 5 There are various types of passports that banks use, including core banking services such as lending and deposit taking, market services such as sales and trading, asset management, payments services and electronic money services. An EU legislative package encompassing prudential rules for banks, building societies and investment firms. U.K.-based banks use it to provide advisory services, lending or custody or deposit services to a business in another EU state. A U.K.-based bank may also serve clients in the rest of the EU through a branch established in another EU state under the preferential terms created by the passporting framework. passports to help clients buy and sell shares, bonds or other financial instruments and trade on exchanges and trading venues around the EU. A U.K.-based bank might use its CRD and MiFID passports to assist a customer in an EU state in arranging a line of credit, managing an investment portfolio or to 4 advise on financial planning. Eighteen top U.K.-based banks use passporting to operate across the EU. These banks are on the brink of losing their passporting rights, a major fallout of the Brexit referendum. This EU legislation regulates firms who provide services to clients linked to financial instruments, and the venues where those instruments are traded. It is used by U.K.-based banks to help a business in another EU state take a derivatives position to hedge a loan, debt issuance, or exchange rate exposure through London- based markets. The U.K.-based banks also use their MiFID It is a key piece of payments- related legislation in Europe, designed to develop the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) and regulate payment institutions. 4. British Bankers' Association, 'What is “passporting” and why does it matter?' Fourth Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) PASSPORTS USED BY BANKS AND FINANCIAL SERVICES FIRMS BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 8. wnsdecisionpoint.com6 Exhibit 4 U.K.-incorporated Banks Depend on Passporting Source: Financial Times, Sept. 2016, Bank of England Yes No 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Barclays bank Totalassets(GBPMn) Lloyds Bank Royal Bank of Scotland HSBC Bank Goldman Sachs Standard Chartered Bank JPMorgan Securities Bank of Scotland National Westminster Bank Santander U.K. Credit Suisse Abbey National Treasury Services UBC Limited Clydesdale Back Co-operative Back Virgin Money Bank of Ireland (U.K.) RBC Europe Limited Coutts & Company Bank of America Merrill Lynch 0 100,000 120,000 22,642 25,373 27,789 27,939 31,774 37,583 38,701 40,106 108,861 270,591 281,406 302,430 341,333 11,759 431,737 27,622 727,941 812,191 817,904 1,120,727 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 9. According to the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), 8,008 firms based in the European Economic Area (EEA) make use of 23,532 passports to provide financial services in the U.K. Furthermore, out of 2,229 wnsdecisionpoint.com 7 companies and a total market cap of GBP 4 Trillion, 112 companies from other EU Member States are listed on the London Stock Exchange with a market cap of 5 GBP 378 Billion. Exhibit 5 Source: FCA 2016 Number of Passports in Total Number of Firms using Passporting 359,953 23,532 13,484 8,008 Total Inbound (into the U.K. from the EEA) 336,421 5,476 Outbound (U.K. firms into the EEA) How Does Passporting Work? A passported U.K. bank can do the following:  Provide its customers with the widest range of banking services across the U.K. and all of 27 EU countries  Establish a branch in any other EU country from which it can offer cross-border banking services to other EU Member States  Do so efficiently, without duplication and at low cost What Does the Loss of Passporting Mean? Once outside the EU, a U.K. bank has no 'passports'. Instead, it has to apply for a license for each EU country:  A license is not available in many EU countries  The range of licensed banking services is much more limited  The license is usually available to one country at a time, i.e. no cross-border rights  Duplication and substantial additional costs Exhibit 6 Source: British Bankers' Association 5. Financial Conduct Authority, U.K. Importance of Passports in the U.K. Financial Services Industry Passports used in the U.K. Financial Services industry BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 10. wnsdecisionpoint.com8 The passporting system has been extended to cover the EEA, which comprises the EU states and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein. Passporting services are extended to these countries based on their commitment to honor the basic freedoms of movement, capital, goods and services in the EU Treaties and to incorporate the EU financial services rulebook into their own domestic law. The referendum has forced a large number of banks to rethink their future strategy in the U.K. in terms of jobs, trade operations and EU staff. In January 2017, HSBC and UBS outlined plans to shift about 1,000 jobs each from the U.K. to the EU. The same was already announced by Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan Chase. In July, Deutsche Bank announced its plans to establish a new Frankfurt booking center to transfer most of the investment banking assets that it currently books in the U.K. Deutsche Bank books hundreds of billions of euros of non-U.K. business through its London broker dealer, which is the single biggest EU bank branch operating in the U.K. It will keep its London-based booking center but this will only serve clients in the U.K. and those who have a preference for keeping their contracts under British Law. Citigroup has decided to base its EU broker dealer, its main trading operation, in Frankfurt and plans to distribute other businesses across Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin, 6 Luxembourg and Madrid. Lloyds of London has confirmed that it will set up a subsidiary in Brussels as its new European base. The subsidiary is expected to be up and running by January 2019. Goldman Sachs announced its plans to relocate 'hundreds of jobs' from Britain to the EU. Several Japanese banking giants such as Nomura, Daiwa and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation have confirmed their plans to shift their European headquarters to Frankfurt. In July 2017, Bank of America moved its investment and market operations to Dublin. It confirmed its plans to move staff from the bank's London office, which employs about 7 4,500 people. Banks shifting large-scale business operations along with their European headquarters from the U.K. to other places in the EU will result in a loss of strategic bank assets of the U.K., thereby causing a serious blow to London's status as the world's most favored destination for business in financial services. This also means high costs associated with staff relocation and setting up new office premises. BANKS OUTSIDE THE EU 6. Article by Financial Times, 'Citigroup and Deutsche Bank give Frankfurt a Brexit boost', July 2017. 7. Article by Financial Times, 'Bank of America chooses Dublin as EU base after Brexit', July 2017. BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 11. wnsdecisionpoint.com 9 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 12. Equivalence is a system pioneered and developed by the EU, in which one State asserts that the standards of the other in a specific area match its own and hence can 8 be pronounced 'equivalent'. Equivalence has an important role in financial services trade between the U.K. and the EU. It is used by the EU for two main things. Firstly, it grants rights to non-EU Member States to carry out certain defined services within the EU. Secondly, it defines the EU legislative and regulatory framework for banks in non-EU Member States to carry out operations. SUBSTITUTE FOR PASSPORTING – 'EQUIVALENCE' Some important examples of the way the EU uses equivalence in banking and related areas are:  In assessing the regulatory standards in their home market of non-EU banks that operate branches in the EU. These judgments are reflected in the way in which EU supervisors treat foreign branches and determine the imposition of additional requirements. For instance, these judgments are used in determining how to assess the risk posed by EU banks taking exposures to banks 9 in these markets.  In assessing the standards that apply to market infrastructure in countries outside the EU, especially central counterparties for clearing securities trades. These judgments are used to determine how freely EU firms can use these market services to 10 clear trades.  In assessing the data protection standards of non-EU countries. These judgments are used to determine how freely the personal data of EU citizens can be moved by banks to these countries for processing 11 or storage. HOW DOES THE EU USE EQUIVALENCE? 8.British Bankers' Association, 'What is “equivalence” and how does it work?' 9. Ibid. 10. Ibid. 11. Ibid. wnsdecisionpoint.com10 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 13. For the U.K. as a country outside the EU, seeking access to the EU single market based on judgments of equivalence will mean weighing various political and policy priorities. There is currently no equivalence regime applicable for the EU's core banking rulebook – the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV). CRD IV applies to core bank services such as lending and 12 deposit taking. This is the most distinctive feature between the breadth of the EU passporting system for EU and U.K. banks and the restrictive treatment of non-EU banks under the limited equivalence frameworks. The EU has recommended a limited number of equivalence regimes that would allow non-EU banks to export specific services to EU Member States. One of them is the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II). This covers a range of investment services, including the design, sale and trading of securities and the provision of investment advice, all the central functions of an investment bank. However, the services covered by MiFID II are narrower in scope and coverage in comparison to those under the 13 MiFID Passport. U.K. BANKS AND EQUIVALENCE 12. Ibid. 13. Ibid. Exhibit 7 What Does Equivalence Mean After Brexit? Source: British Bankers' Association Advantages  Some limited market access or operational rights in the EU  Some limited rights for EU banks to trade in the U.K. or with U.K. based banks  May facilitate the use of U.K. as a base for exporting financial services to EU states under an equivalence regime For U.K. based Banks For the U.K. Disadvantages  Granting equivalence uncertain  Activation of key equivalence regimes such as the proposed MiFID third-country framework uncertain  Equivalence-based market access frameworks currently not available in most EU Member States  Loss of equivalence can materially affect operational or market access rights  Against the basic tenets of judicial and regulatory independence that led to the U.K. referendum wnsdecisionpoint.com 11 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 14. wnsdecisionpoint.com12 Exhibit 8 Passporting and Equivalence under Brexit Scenarios TM Source: British Bankers' Association; WNS DecisionPoint Analysis The Fourth Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV) Core bank services such as lending and deposit taking and corporate advisory services Passport not possible; No market access rights for non- EU banks. Banks and other deposit taking institutions will have to relocate to be able to continue with Euro- denominated lending and deposit taking activities Passport possible; cross-border rights across the single market and local treatment for branch operations No Equivalence regime Service or Activity Covered PASSPORT/ DIRECTIVE Hard Brexit – No Access to Single Market Soft Brexit – Access to Single Market (EEA/Norway Model) Decision-Making Authority on Equivalence The Second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) Range of investment and market services, including the design, sale and trading of securities and the provision of investment advice Passport not possible; No specific arrangements for an equivalence regime. Firms will have to obtain authorization under the regulatory regimes of each Member State in which they want to operate Passport possible; Equivalence will give limited rights with regard to MiFID services; not been activated A combination of: European Securities and Markets Authority, the European Commission and EU Council The Second Payments Services Directive (PSD II) Payments Services Passport not possible; No specific arrangements for an equivalence regime. Firms will have to obtain authorization under the regulatory regimes of each Member State in which they want to operate Passport possible; No market access for non-EU service providers under Equivalence No Equivalence regime BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 15. The five-year outlook for the U.K.'s consolidated bank assets can be assessed in two scenarios – Hard vs. Soft Brexit. A hard Brexit means the U.K.'s complete departure from the EU single market and a subsequent loss of passporting rights for majority of the banks that rely on these to conduct cross- border business with the EU. The biggest loss will be for the non-U.K. banks, which control majority of the bank assets in the U.K. The U.K.'s status will be reduced to that of a third country which will have to determine a new set of financial services trading framework with the EU. The current uncertainty regarding Brexit negotiations has had an impact on the banking sector in two ways. Firstly, with a large number of banks already in the process of shifting their European headquarters and consequently majority of their business and trade operations from London to other parts of the EU, the U.K. will see a loss in its consolidated assets over the medium term. The decline in assets will continue until mid-2019, when the Brexit framework has been finalized and the U.K. has officially departed from the EU. Bank assets will see some stabilization from 2019 onwards, and will pick up from 2019 to 2021, when the U.K. political framework post Brexit is in its final form. Secondly, the initial impact of the referendum has been the depreciation of the sterling, resulting in higher costs for companies exposed to imports and a more favorable environment for exporters. Rising domestic costs resulting from higher import prices may impact household incomes and affordability of consumer loans and home loans, important subsets of bank assets. This, in turn, may affect businesses dependent on consumers for revenue. Real estate markets, both commercial and residential, have also been impacted negatively leading to a lowering of value. Bank assets will continue to decline in the near term, as a direct fallout from banks moving their operations from the U.K. to the EU and a declining sterling, but how fast they pick up and the magnitude of the increase from 2019–2021 will be determined by the final framework of Brexit and the deal the U.K. ultimately strikes with the EU. The U.K. stands to lose a large number of assets by the end of the Brexit negotiations in the event of an exit from the single market and loss of their passporting rights. A soft Brexit, with continued access to the single market and retention of passporting privileges for banks, will imply a healthy growth in assets in the forecast period from 2019–2021. OUTLOOK FOR BANK ASSETS – HARD BREXIT VS. SOFT BREXIT wnsdecisionpoint.com 13 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 16. Exhibit 9 Forecast for Bank Assets Soft Brexit Hard Brexit TM Source: WNS DecisionPoint forecast based on data from European Central Bank. Includes Domestic Banking groups and standalone banks, foreign (EU and non-EU) controlled subsidiaries and foreign controlled branches 8,500,000 9,500,000 10,500,000 11,000,000 11,500,000 12,000,000 9,848,171 9,790,176 9,645,385 9,635,772 9,613,676 9,613,676 2017 2018 2019 USD Mn 9,000,000 10,000,000 11,446,647 10,248,394 10,531,652 9,980,124 2020 2021 wnsdecisionpoint.com14 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 17. According to data published by the Association of British Insurers (ABI), the U.K. insurance market happens to be the largest in Europe and the third largest in the world, and contributed GBP 29 Billion to the U.K.'s Gross Domestic 14 Product (GDP). The U.K. insurance market differs from the London Market. The wider U.K. insurance market refers to the underwriting by insurers of standard insurance policies, such as home, motor etc., while the London Market has become, over time, a leading market for specialty commercial insurance and reinsurance business, providing coverage for complex or wholesale specialty risks such as natural catastrophes, marine and aviation, and where virtually all business is placed by brokers on behalf of their clients. Insurers and reinsurers, Llyod's syndicates and managing agents form part of the ecosystem of the London Market that is worth an estimated GBP 60 Billion in gross written insurance 15 premiums. Currently, over GBP 8 Billion of premium is brought annually to the London Insurance Market by brokers on behalf of EU customers. Over GBP 6 Billion of international business is written in London by firms with a parent company or principal base located elsewhere in the EU, demonstrating the importance of continuing mutual market access between the U.K. 16 and the EU post Brexit. 14. Association of British Insurers. 15. European Parliament Briefing Papers, 'Brexit: The United Kingdom and EU financial services'. 16. London Market Group, 'A Brexit Roadmap for the U.K. Specialty Commercial Insurance Sector'. INSURANCE The Solvency II Directive, which became applicable on January 1 2016, is the EU directive for insurance companies. It is based on requirement rules pertaining to the valuation of assets and capital, risk management and disclosure. It is the 'passport' through which insurers operate in other EU Member States through branches and sell products and services across borders. PASSPORT IN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY wnsdecisionpoint.com 15 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 18. In the event of a hard Brexit and the subsequent loss of their passporting privileges, insurers have the option of relying on Equivalence to be able to continue their cross-border operation with the EU. If the solvency regime applied to reinsurance activities of a third country is found equivalent, reinsurance contracts concluded with reinsurers established in that third country shall be treated in the same way as reinsurance contracts concluded with EU reinsurers (Article 172 of the Solvency II Directive). As a result, Member States may not consider contracts concluded with third countries less favorable than those concluded with EU insurers (Article 172-173). Thus, these provisions provide reinsurers with passporting rights. In case third-country insurers pursue activities in the EU as a parent undertaking of an EU insurer, an equivalence decision under Article 260 of the Solvency II Directive exempts these insurers from some aspects of group supervision and requires Member States to rely on the group supervision exercised by that third country. Supervisors of Member States will then form a college led by the third-country group supervisor. Also, Solvency II does not include a third-country regime for solo entities of 17 third-country insurers. Furthermore, if an EU-based insurer pursues activities in third countries, the presence of an equivalence decision under Article 227 allows them to carry out the solvency calculations for prudential reporting for the subsidiary in the third country in compliance with the rules of that country instead of 18 rules under Solvency II. The future of the U.K.-EU insurance industry is reliant upon how clearly the equivalence framework is spelt out during Brexit negotiations in the face of a hard Brexit, while a soft Brexit will imply continuance of cross-border rights for insurers. EQUIVALENCE UNDER SOLVENCY II 17. European Parliament Directorate-General for Internal Policies, 'Implication of Brexit on EU Financial Services, 2017'. 18. Ibid. wnsdecisionpoint.com16 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 19. Assets under management (AuM) in Europe reached EUR 22.8 Trillion by the end of 2016, bringing the size of the industry to 138 percent of the GDP. Investment fund assets accounted for 51.8 percent of all AuM, totaling EUR 19 11,800 Billion, whereas discretionary mandates represented 48.2 percent of total AuM, or EUR 11,000 Billion. Exhibit 10 European AuM at end 2015 (EUR Billion) and AuM/GDP (Percent) Source: European Fund and Asset Management Association, May 2017 AuMCountries % Change in 2015 Market Share AuM/GDP 19. European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA), 'Asset Management in Europe', 9th edition, Facts and Figures, May 2017. 20. Ibid. ASSET MANAGEMENT wnsdecisionpoint.com 17 U.K. 7791 6% 36.3% 320% France Germany Switzerland Netherlands Italy Denmark Belgium Austria Portugal Turkey Czech Republic Hungary Greece Rest of Europe Total 3787 2026 1466 1244 1156 367 279 104 81 48 35 28 11 3047 21469 5% 9% 2% 1% 10% 3% 8% 3% 7% 4% n.a. 5% 20% 6% 6% 17.6% 9.4% 6.8% 5.8% 5.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.05% 14.2% 100% 174% 67% 242% 184% 70% 135% 68% 31% 45% 7% 21% 25% 6% 102% 132% BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 20. In the area of collective investment schemes, European law currently comprises two main pieces of legislation covering two types of harmonized investment funds – Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities Directive (UCITS) and Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD). Designed to enhance the single market while maintaining high levels of investor protection, the AIFMD is the main passport used by non-EU investment fund companies to conduct business across the EU. The aim of the AIFMD is to set up a regulatory framework for monitoring the risks posed by unregulated investment funds. The directive targets fund managers. The AIFMD includes requirements for authorization, registration of the fund manager, conduct of business, regulatory capital, safekeeping of investments, 22 marketing and leverage. Access to EU markets for U.K. fund managers will be negatively impacted in case of a hard Brexit since the UCITS directive does not have a third-country regime with European Commission equivalence in place for third-country alternative investment fund managers (AIFMs) and third- country alternative investment funds (AIFs). Under AIFMD, third- country AIFs either need an authorized EU AIFM to market their units or shares in the EU or the third-country AIFM needs to be authorized by the competent authority of the 'Member State of reference'. These requirements effectively mean that the third- country AIF and the third-country AIFM need to comply with the AIFMD rules in order to benefit 23 from the EU passport. PASSPORTS IN ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY 21. Ibid. 22. Financial Times Lexicon. 23. European Parliament Directorate-General for Internal Policies, 'Implication of Brexit on EU Financial Services, 2017'. The majority of the investment fund assets managed in Europe remain concentrated in a small set of European countries. The U.K., followed by France and Germany, is the biggest asset management market in Europe. Altogether these three countries own 63 percent of the total AuM in Europe, reflecting 20 the size of their economies. The large AuM/GDP ratios in the U.K. (320 percent), Switzerland (242 percent), the Netherlands (184 percent), France (174 percent) and Denmark (135 percent) give an indication of the relative importance of asset managers in these countries, and the responsibility they have taken in 21 managing investors' assets. wnsdecisionpoint.com18 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
  • 21. The financial services industry is the backbone of the EU-U.K. trade in services. Its success is essential for the sustenance of both the EU's and U.K.'s positions as unrivalled centers of financial business excellence. The industry in both the regions draws its strength from the mutually beneficial economic and political partnership between them, built and sustained over centuries. However, the events of CONCLUSION the last one year pose a threat to this successful partnership. The Brexit referendum of 2016 has shaken the foundations of the banking, insurance and asset management industries in these regions. With the Brexit negotiations seeming to hit a roadblock and consequently jeopardizing the City of London's future as a favorite of the world's leading financial groups, we can expect more financial firms shifting the majority of their operations from London to other cities in the EU. If London has to safeguard its position as the world's most favored destination for business in financial services, it is for the politicians in the U.K. and Brussels to reach an amicable agreement that ensures regulatory fairness for all parties concerned. wnsdecisionpoint.com 19 BREXIT AND THE CITY OF LONDON NO EQUIVALENT TO THE FINANCIAL SERVICES PASSPORT
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