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VIBHORE AGARAWAL
AGENDA
MARKET OVERVIEW
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
MARKET OVERVIEW
MARKET
SHARE
DRUG SECTOR GROCERY SECTOR
A N G E L
S O F T
9 . 0 3 %
K L E E N E X
1 5 . 2 7 %
S C O T T
1 6 . 4 0 %
P R I V A T E
L A B E L
2 0 . 0 4 %
C H A R M I N
2 0 . 7 0 %
C H A R M I N
1 1 . 6 9 %
Q U I L T E D
N O R T H E R N
1 2 . 7 0 %
K L E E N E X
1 4 . 4 9 %
P R I V A T E
L A B E L
1 5 . 5 0 %
S C O T T
1 4 . 4 1 %
81.44 % 68.79%
5 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
AGENDA
MARKET OVERVIEW
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
• Plotted trends for unit price vs week and sales vs week using PROC LOESS
• A dip in unit prices lead to increase in sales for particular week as it can be seen
• The prices fall on a frequency of about once a month throughout the year
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
DRUG STORE DATA
Plotted trends for sales per week and forecasted sales for coming 10 weeks (95% confidence level) using PROC FORECAST for
DRUG STORE DATA
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
• Plotted trends for unit price vs week and sales vs week using PROC LOESS
• A dip in unit prices lead to increase in sales for particular week as it can be seen
• The prices fall on a frequency of about once a month throughout the year
GROCERY STORE DATA
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
Plotted trends for sales per week and forecasted sales for coming 10 weeks (95% confidence level) using PROC FORECAST for
GROCERY STORE DATA
AGENDA
MARKET OVERVIEW
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
Key Metrics related to final Segmentation – DRUG STORES
A B C
28 14 21
22 15 23
23 12 26
28 11 26
18 18 21
Male Working Hour Bucket
VH
H
M
L
VL
SalesPotential
Total 119 70 117 306
Total
63
60
61
65
57
2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
Sales Potential Bucket (in $)
VL L M H VH
<=1.99 >=2 and
<=4.26
>=4.42 and
<=7.49
>=7.5 and
<=12.55
12.62+
Male Working Hour Code Bucket
C B A
Working
Class
Retired and
Student
Not
Employed
A B C
2 5 13
3 6 11
2 5 17
3 14 12
2 13 13
No of Pets Bucket
VH
H
M
L
VL
SalesPotential
Total 12 43 66 121
Total
20
20
24
29
28
No of Pets Bucket
C B A
1 2-3 4-5
Only 121 out of 306
Panelist had pets
A B C
23 33 6
17 33 10
20 37 4
24 35 6
19 37 1
Marital Status Bucket
VH
H
M
L
VL
SalesPotential
Total 103 175 27 121
Total
62
60
61
65
57
305
1 Panelist Marital
Status was missing
Marital Status Bucket
C B A
Single Married Divorces / Separated /
Widowed
Total Scott
Buyer = 306
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
Key Metrics related to final Segmentation – GROCERY STORES
A B C
247 162 55
201 184 79
180 167 116
186 183 118
167 164 108
Family Size Bucket
VH
H
M
L
VL
SalesPotential
Total 981 860 476 2317
Total
464
464
463
487
439
2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
Sales Potential Bucket (in $)
VL L M H VH
<= 5.49 >= 5.5 and
<= 11.49
>= 11.6 and
<= 25.26
>=25.28
and <=51
>= 51.28
Age Group Male HH Bucket
C B A
18-44 Yrs. 45 – 64 Yrs. 65+ Yrs.
A B C
89 214 52
103 165 67
78 154 57
105 151 71
76 137 77
Age Group Male HH Bucket
VH
H
M
L
VL
SalesPotential
Total 451 821 324 1596
Total
355
335
289
327
290
Family Size Bucket
C B A
1 Person 2 Person 3+ Person
Only 1596 out of
2317 Panelist age
were known
A B C
135 190 30
134 183 19
132 141 16
129 179 20
136 139 15
Male HH Education Level
VH
H
M
L
VL
SalesPotential
Total 666 832 100 121
Total
355
336
289
328
290
1598
Only 1598 out of 2317 Panelist
HH’s Male Educational Level
were known
Male HH Educational Level Bucket
C B A
High
School
Undergrad.
College
Post Graduate and
Working Class
Total Scott
Buyer = 2317
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
RECOMMENDATIONS
2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
• The Segmentation of customers attributes based on sales potential gives a snapshot of the figures most important to the
company
• Target the potential customers for both – DRUG and GROCERY sector, that lie towards the Lower Segments – VL, L, M buckets
and strategize on decreasing the count and thereby increasing the count of – VH and H bucket
AGENDA
MARKET OVERVIEW
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS
AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
Confidence % Antecedent – Consequent Lift Ratio
50.65 Private Label – Scott 1.71
GROCERY STORE ASSOCIATION FOR SCOTT SALES
Confidence % Antecedent – Consequent Lift Ratio
34.64 Private Label – Scott 7.48
DEPARTMENTAL STORE ASSOCIATION FOR SCOTT SALES
DRUG STORE
PRIVATE LABEL SCOTT
INPUT VARIABLE ODDS INPUT VARIABLE ODDS
Number of Dogs 1.11761 Number of Dogs 0.60272
Number of Cats 1.13406 Number of Cats 0.89776
Marital status 1.22886 Marital Status 0.97496
RECOMMENDATIONS
• People with pets prefer Private Label over SCOTT. Associate the brand package with introducing an animal
mascot such as dogs or cats on the packaging to attract pet owners for the initial quarter.
• People who are single prefer Private Label over SCOTT. Displaying the advertisement in the dating applications
to attract single people.
GROCERY STORE
PRIVATE LABEL SCOTT
INPUT VARIABLE ODDS INPUT VARIABLE ODDS
HH_Age 0.88134 HH_Age 1.12714
Marital status 1.09677 Marital Status 0.98973
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Younger generation prefer Private Label over SCOTT. Younger generation are maximum found in universities
and colleges. Associating brand with facial wipes and tissues would help brand awareness amongst
youngsters.
THANK YOU
“ If you torture data long enough, it would confess to anything you’d like. “
- R.H. Coase,
British Economist

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Predictive Analytics for Scott Toilet Tissue

  • 2. AGENDA MARKET OVERVIEW TIME SERIES ANALYSIS SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
  • 3. MARKET OVERVIEW MARKET SHARE DRUG SECTOR GROCERY SECTOR A N G E L S O F T 9 . 0 3 % K L E E N E X 1 5 . 2 7 % S C O T T 1 6 . 4 0 % P R I V A T E L A B E L 2 0 . 0 4 % C H A R M I N 2 0 . 7 0 % C H A R M I N 1 1 . 6 9 % Q U I L T E D N O R T H E R N 1 2 . 7 0 % K L E E N E X 1 4 . 4 9 % P R I V A T E L A B E L 1 5 . 5 0 % S C O T T 1 4 . 4 1 % 81.44 % 68.79% 5 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
  • 4. AGENDA MARKET OVERVIEW TIME SERIES ANALYSIS SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
  • 5. • Plotted trends for unit price vs week and sales vs week using PROC LOESS • A dip in unit prices lead to increase in sales for particular week as it can be seen • The prices fall on a frequency of about once a month throughout the year TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E DRUG STORE DATA
  • 6. Plotted trends for sales per week and forecasted sales for coming 10 weeks (95% confidence level) using PROC FORECAST for DRUG STORE DATA TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E
  • 7. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E • Plotted trends for unit price vs week and sales vs week using PROC LOESS • A dip in unit prices lead to increase in sales for particular week as it can be seen • The prices fall on a frequency of about once a month throughout the year GROCERY STORE DATA
  • 8. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 1 Y E A R S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E Plotted trends for sales per week and forecasted sales for coming 10 weeks (95% confidence level) using PROC FORECAST for GROCERY STORE DATA
  • 9. AGENDA MARKET OVERVIEW TIME SERIES ANALYSIS SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
  • 10. SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS Key Metrics related to final Segmentation – DRUG STORES A B C 28 14 21 22 15 23 23 12 26 28 11 26 18 18 21 Male Working Hour Bucket VH H M L VL SalesPotential Total 119 70 117 306 Total 63 60 61 65 57 2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E Sales Potential Bucket (in $) VL L M H VH <=1.99 >=2 and <=4.26 >=4.42 and <=7.49 >=7.5 and <=12.55 12.62+ Male Working Hour Code Bucket C B A Working Class Retired and Student Not Employed A B C 2 5 13 3 6 11 2 5 17 3 14 12 2 13 13 No of Pets Bucket VH H M L VL SalesPotential Total 12 43 66 121 Total 20 20 24 29 28 No of Pets Bucket C B A 1 2-3 4-5 Only 121 out of 306 Panelist had pets A B C 23 33 6 17 33 10 20 37 4 24 35 6 19 37 1 Marital Status Bucket VH H M L VL SalesPotential Total 103 175 27 121 Total 62 60 61 65 57 305 1 Panelist Marital Status was missing Marital Status Bucket C B A Single Married Divorces / Separated / Widowed Total Scott Buyer = 306
  • 11. SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS Key Metrics related to final Segmentation – GROCERY STORES A B C 247 162 55 201 184 79 180 167 116 186 183 118 167 164 108 Family Size Bucket VH H M L VL SalesPotential Total 981 860 476 2317 Total 464 464 463 487 439 2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E Sales Potential Bucket (in $) VL L M H VH <= 5.49 >= 5.5 and <= 11.49 >= 11.6 and <= 25.26 >=25.28 and <=51 >= 51.28 Age Group Male HH Bucket C B A 18-44 Yrs. 45 – 64 Yrs. 65+ Yrs. A B C 89 214 52 103 165 67 78 154 57 105 151 71 76 137 77 Age Group Male HH Bucket VH H M L VL SalesPotential Total 451 821 324 1596 Total 355 335 289 327 290 Family Size Bucket C B A 1 Person 2 Person 3+ Person Only 1596 out of 2317 Panelist age were known A B C 135 190 30 134 183 19 132 141 16 129 179 20 136 139 15 Male HH Education Level VH H M L VL SalesPotential Total 666 832 100 121 Total 355 336 289 328 290 1598 Only 1598 out of 2317 Panelist HH’s Male Educational Level were known Male HH Educational Level Bucket C B A High School Undergrad. College Post Graduate and Working Class Total Scott Buyer = 2317
  • 12. SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS RECOMMENDATIONS 2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E • The Segmentation of customers attributes based on sales potential gives a snapshot of the figures most important to the company • Target the potential customers for both – DRUG and GROCERY sector, that lie towards the Lower Segments – VL, L, M buckets and strategize on decreasing the count and thereby increasing the count of – VH and H bucket
  • 13. AGENDA MARKET OVERVIEW TIME SERIES ANALYSIS SEGMENTATION AND TARGETING OF CUSTOMERS AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION
  • 14. AFFINITY ANALYSIS FOR COMPETITOR IDENTIFICATION 2 Y E A R S S A L E S C O N S I D E R E D H E R E Confidence % Antecedent – Consequent Lift Ratio 50.65 Private Label – Scott 1.71 GROCERY STORE ASSOCIATION FOR SCOTT SALES Confidence % Antecedent – Consequent Lift Ratio 34.64 Private Label – Scott 7.48 DEPARTMENTAL STORE ASSOCIATION FOR SCOTT SALES DRUG STORE PRIVATE LABEL SCOTT INPUT VARIABLE ODDS INPUT VARIABLE ODDS Number of Dogs 1.11761 Number of Dogs 0.60272 Number of Cats 1.13406 Number of Cats 0.89776 Marital status 1.22886 Marital Status 0.97496 RECOMMENDATIONS • People with pets prefer Private Label over SCOTT. Associate the brand package with introducing an animal mascot such as dogs or cats on the packaging to attract pet owners for the initial quarter. • People who are single prefer Private Label over SCOTT. Displaying the advertisement in the dating applications to attract single people. GROCERY STORE PRIVATE LABEL SCOTT INPUT VARIABLE ODDS INPUT VARIABLE ODDS HH_Age 0.88134 HH_Age 1.12714 Marital status 1.09677 Marital Status 0.98973 RECOMMENDATIONS • Younger generation prefer Private Label over SCOTT. Younger generation are maximum found in universities and colleges. Associating brand with facial wipes and tissues would help brand awareness amongst youngsters.
  • 15. THANK YOU “ If you torture data long enough, it would confess to anything you’d like. “ - R.H. Coase, British Economist