Tse trend analysis_2014

Trend Analysis
and Desktop Research
The Smart Entrepreneur

Trend analysis
• Trends describe where new fashions, consumer behaviours,
industry developments, social changes or customer needs are
forming and gaining momentum.
• Trend analysis is one of several means of identifying what
customers are looking for and profitable potential markets (and,
hopefully, spotting them at the right time).
Copyright of Bart Clarysse and Sabrina Kiefer

Why do this exercise?
This exercise is a starting point for exploring and identifying:
• Unmet customer preferences >> areas for which a new product could
be devised to solve a problem or meet a desire/need
• Potential markets that could be receptive to your existing innovation
• Applications: ways to shape and refine your innovation into a specific
application based on a genuine, sizable market need (rather than your
own personal tastes)
In later phases you can test the ideas and assumptions that you formed in
this activity to further adapt your product/service offer to genuine customer
needs.

Why do this exercise?
Whether you are:
• seeking possible opportunities/market gaps for which to develop an
innovation; or
• Looking for information to help you identify a suitable market for
your existing innovation
• Looking for top-down data as part of your Entrepreneurial Market
Research (see IE&D Toolbox)
you need to base your thinking on the tastes and needs of a tangible
and sizable market, not assume that something you would buy
yourself will also appeal to many customers.

How to identify trends
Use a PEST analysis to observe trends:
• Political
• Economic
• Social
• Technological

Political
• Public policy trends
(e.g. Policy focus on environmental problems, education & training, health, help for
the disadvantaged, promote enterprise, promote culture, promote technology)
• New laws & regulations
(e.g. ban on smoking in public, CO2 emissions, congestion charging, industry
deregulation, employment laws, health and safety laws, trade and commerce rules,
taxation & savings)
• Government spending plans
(e.g. money for defence, education, infrastructure & systems, etc.)
• Political stability, voter sentiment

Economic
• Economic cycle (growth, recession, recovery)
• Income/wealth levels; poverty levels, disposable income
• Resource scarcity/surplus
(e.g. time, labour, liquidity, materials, services, suppliers, infrastructure)
• Birth of new industries/markets
• Decline of old industries
• Changes in the way an industry is organised (supply chain, value chain, new
methods or technologies)
• Inefficient financial markets
• Indicators
(e.g.: price/inflation trends, business sector sales/profit figures, growth rate,
currency exchange rates, labour costs, debt levels, customer preference and
market research surveys)

Social
• Demographic change: age, urban/rural living, growth patterns,
career and retirement patterns
• Education levels
• Cultural attitudes
(e.g. gender roles, family, diversity)
• Use of leisure time (sports, games, travel, culture)
• Work trends (e.g.: flexible/mobile working, childcare needs, time
constraints, commuting, work from home, company size)
• Public mood (optimism, anxiety, entrepreneurial spirit,
individualism, social/community engagement, conservatism, desire
for change)

Technological
• New research
• Recent technological developments/inventions
• Impact of new technologies on: automation, cost structures, supply chain,
communication, specialised methods, service delivery, etc.
• Faster, cheaper, safer, smaller, more accurate, more efficient, etc.
• Pace of technological change
• Adoption cycles - pace at which consumers adopt a new technology

Desktop research resources to spot trends
• Publications – newspapers, trade journals, market research reports,
social research papers, Factiva
• Websites – government agencies, think-tanks, Office of Statistics, trade
associations, fashion and entertainment blogs… search engines!
• Company reports – product segment sales
• Speak to experts in the sector you are investigating
• Look around you, note repeating events, changes in sentiment, then look
for figures/studies to back up your observations
>> Also take advantage of the Open Data initiatives of various governments
and NGOs (UK, US, World Bank, city councils, and many more)

If you are looking for a business opportunity...
• Does any trend - or combination of trends - generate needs or desires
that have not been met by the market
• and can you devise a new product or service to meet these
needs/desires?
• Refer to ‘Idea Generation’ slides in the IE&D Toolbox

If you are looking for applications for a given product or technology...
• Can your technology be turned into an application that meets
requirements/desires evidenced by these trends? Which one(s)?
• Think of as many applications as possible, ranging from the more complex
or specialist niche to the simpler or more standardised (mass consumer).
• Refer to the ‘Idea Generation’ slides in IE&D Toolbox for a way to do this

Trend examples of different kinds
• 24-hour society
• ‘Money rich, time poor’
• Environmental issues and global warming
• Globalisation
• Desire for ‘gadgets’
• Increasing design- and style-consciousness
• Convergence of Internet, communication links, mobile & wireless,
etc.
• Increased government spending and investment
• Attitudes toward a certain sector or activity (e.g. mistrust of banks in
2008)

Solution example: Designing to meet poorly addressed needs
Limited space (resource constraints) and the growing use of IT in schools
led to design of a desk incorporating a flip-up computer monitor and keyboard

Solutions: Matching new technologies to user needs or desires
The ‘on-the-go’ and ‘multi-tasking’ or ‘hands-free’ culture, the increasing desire for
‘connectivity’ everywhere

Solutions: New business models that accelerate a growing
market…
Growing market for travel:
Customer willingness to accept
fewer frills for cheaper fares
Dell: growing market for PCs –
harness the growth by offering a direct selling
model that lowers prices to consumers

Solutions: take advantage of new regulations or legislation
Patientline developed a communication tool for hospitals that offers (revenue-
generating) access to telephone and entertainment for patients, while also fulfilling
NHS, Dept. of Health and GMC guidelines on the delivery and availability of health
information to patients

Solutions: create or import new experiences
Sushi bars: a fresher and healthier version of fast food for a more sophisticated
customer; widespread in Japan but relatively unknown in the UK until the spread of the
Yo! Sushi chain

• PEST is a useful starting point to identify trends and spot business
opportunities, as it encourages you to look across sectors and make
comparisons and links with your own business area.
• Use a trend analysis if you want to think of areas in which a new technology
could be applied, spot opportunities for which you might create a business
solution or reality-check an existing idea in the light of current trends.
• You can use the techniques in the ‘Idea Generation’ exercise in the IE&D
Toolbox to help your thinking process.
Conclusion and deliverables

Tse trend analysis_2014

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