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Florence Nightingale and
health statistics in 2016
Professor John Newton
Chief Knowledge Officer, PHE
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
Florence Nightingale’s polar area
graph (1856)
Florence Nightingale as Statistician Author(s):
Edwin W. Kopf Source: Publications of the
American Statistical Association, Vol. 15, No.
116 (Dec., 1916), pp. 388-404
“The connection between the health and the
dwellings of the population is one of the most
important that exists.”
Florence Nightingale on the importance of
collecting housing data in the 1861 census
Does quantity have a quality all of its
own?
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
The beauty and power of
descriptive data
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013 Source: Danny Dorling
One-year Survival by stage
y = 0.003x + 0.1241
R² = 0.57
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Obesityprevalence
IndexofMultiple Deprivation2010 score
(High score = more deprived)
obesity prevalence in children aged
10 years by deprivation
9
Child obesity: BMI ≥ 95th
centile of the UK90 growth reference
Local authorities in England
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
11
“The Global Burden of Disease
showed the position of health in
the UK and that while
comparatively there have been
a lot of gains, there is still a long
way to go….GBD exemplifies
the new paradigm in public
health. We’re not just looking at
one issue at a time anymore.”
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
13 BIA 2015
GBD: Leading causes of DALYs 1990 & 2013
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
Figure 1
The Lancet DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2)
Risk factors currently included in
GBD
“We legislate without knowing what we are doing.
The War Office has some of the finest statistics in the
world.
What comes of them? Little or nothing. Why? Because
the Heads do not know how to make anything of them.”
Florence Nightingale in a letter to Benjamin Jowett
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
Using data, information and technology
to make a difference in 2016
• Few care systems are truly data and information driven
• Senior managers have become used to managing
without timely and relevant information
• Information presented in an engaging and transparent
way is much more likely to be used
• Judgments on the balance between confidentiality and
use of data often seem arbitrary and approvals process
is burdensome
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
Conclusions
• Data and information are interventions that save lives
and improve health
• Health sector has consistently underinvested in capacity
and capability for the use of data compared with its
generation and collection
• We have more data than ever before but it remains far
more difficult to get it and use it than it needs to be
• Projects such as the Global Burden of Disease have
shown that these problems can be overcome
PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013

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Florence Nightingale and health statistics in 2016

  • 1. Florence Nightingale and health statistics in 2016 Professor John Newton Chief Knowledge Officer, PHE
  • 2. PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 3. Florence Nightingale’s polar area graph (1856)
  • 4. Florence Nightingale as Statistician Author(s): Edwin W. Kopf Source: Publications of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 15, No. 116 (Dec., 1916), pp. 388-404
  • 5. “The connection between the health and the dwellings of the population is one of the most important that exists.” Florence Nightingale on the importance of collecting housing data in the 1861 census
  • 6. Does quantity have a quality all of its own? PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 7. The beauty and power of descriptive data PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013 Source: Danny Dorling
  • 9. y = 0.003x + 0.1241 R² = 0.57 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Obesityprevalence IndexofMultiple Deprivation2010 score (High score = more deprived) obesity prevalence in children aged 10 years by deprivation 9 Child obesity: BMI ≥ 95th centile of the UK90 growth reference Local authorities in England
  • 10. PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 11. 11 “The Global Burden of Disease showed the position of health in the UK and that while comparatively there have been a lot of gains, there is still a long way to go….GBD exemplifies the new paradigm in public health. We’re not just looking at one issue at a time anymore.”
  • 12. PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 13. 13 BIA 2015 GBD: Leading causes of DALYs 1990 & 2013
  • 14. PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 15. Figure 1 The Lancet DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2) Risk factors currently included in GBD
  • 16. “We legislate without knowing what we are doing. The War Office has some of the finest statistics in the world. What comes of them? Little or nothing. Why? Because the Heads do not know how to make anything of them.” Florence Nightingale in a letter to Benjamin Jowett PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 17. Using data, information and technology to make a difference in 2016 • Few care systems are truly data and information driven • Senior managers have become used to managing without timely and relevant information • Information presented in an engaging and transparent way is much more likely to be used • Judgments on the balance between confidentiality and use of data often seem arbitrary and approvals process is burdensome PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013
  • 18. Conclusions • Data and information are interventions that save lives and improve health • Health sector has consistently underinvested in capacity and capability for the use of data compared with its generation and collection • We have more data than ever before but it remains far more difficult to get it and use it than it needs to be • Projects such as the Global Burden of Disease have shown that these problems can be overcome PHE briefing for NIHR Board 2013

Editor's Notes

  1. Careful data collection and presentation
  2. Fifth v is value
  3. This is similar to a Lexis diagram named after the demographer – it has 15,000 cells each with a value!
  4. Obesity prevalence is strongly correlated with deprivation and is highest in the most deprived areas.
  5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG_vt0F-ac0 Adrian Davis, Director of Population Health Science, Public Health England
  6. A more general causal web of the causes of health outcomes Categories of causes included in this analysis shown in blue. GBD=Global Burden of Disease.