Pitch prepared by Tyler Schroeder, Matthew Stork, and Alex Vasti for the Miami University Asset Management Club on 10/10/2017. Sources have been cited and confidential information about the fund has been removed.
3. Investment Thesis
Spirit Airlines has been oversold in the broader Airline sector sell-off this past
summer. The fundamentals of the stock’s story are unchanged and present a dip-
buying opportunity for the fund.
Oversold
Spirit is down 36% since June 2nd
United Airlines down 21%
Delta is up 0.80%
Temporary Setbacks
Labor disputes
Negative impact from hurricanes
Ticket price slashing from other
airlines
Growth Drivers
Rising oil prices will give Spirit a
competitive advantage
Price war will drive volume
Large upside potential when
ticket prices normalize
4. Proposal
• High variability around Q3 earnings and Q4 guidance demands a cautious
approach to increasing the fund’s position
• Buy [redacted] shares in the coming weeks: [redacted] shares before Q3 earnings
and [redacted] shares after Q3 earnings
• Investment horizon: 2 – 3 years
5. Company Overview
• Founded in current form in 1992
• 470+ daily flights serving most of the
top 25 major US markets
• Plan to add 125 more routes over the
next five years
• On average, the entry of Spirit Airlines
increases airport traffic by 35-40%
• Lowest CASM (cost per average seat
mile) in the major airline industry.
$0.0763 CASM. $0.0560 CASM ex-fuel
• Currently have 104 aircraft, plan to
expand to 160 by 2021
• As of March, 59 aircraft are leased
while 36 are owned
• Shifting away from Airbus A319 to
A231
• A319 has 145 seats while A231 has
228 seats
6. Company Overview
• The current CEO is Robert L. Fornaro
• B.S. from Rutgers University and a
Masters from Harvard University
• Formerly Chairman and CEO of AirTran
Holdings before it was acquired by
Southwest Airlines
• Has 18 years of airline executive
experience
• Director David Elkins purchased
$67,000 worth of shares on 9-15-17
• Chairman of the Board purchased
$168,900 worth of shares on 9-15-17
• Spirit maintains short-term leases on
airport gates, whereas most airlines
have long term leases
• Maintain leases at over 60 airports
• Currently have 5,742 full time
employees
7. Company Overview
• Traffic (RSM) up 20.6% yr/yr for
August
• Capacity (ASM) up 21% yr/yr for
August
• Cancelled 1,255 flights due to
Hurricane Irma
• Florida and Caribbean are 45% of the
network
Current Price 35.02 Debt/Equity 0.72
Market Cap (in Billions) 2.43 Quick Ratio 1.48
Dividends - Current Ratio 1.79
Diluted EPS (TTM) 3.45 FCF (TTM) (70.88)
Operating Margin 18.92% Profit Margin 11.14%
Key Financial Figures
8. Flight Network
• Large presence in Florida
and Northeast
• Operates primarily in large
hubs (big airport to big
airport)
• Adding 6 new nonstop
services on November 9th
9. Industry Overview
• Capacity expansion and traffic growth
have both been strong in 2017:
(up 6 to 7% year-over-year)
• Capacity in the US has slightly
outpaced traffic growth, putting
downward pressure on fares
• IATA (Int’l Air Transport Association)
increased domestic RPK forecasts for
2017 from 3.4% to 4.7% yr/yr growth
• Spirit and United are currently
engaged in a price war, which has
driven fares down
• Price wars are affecting roughly 50%
of the terminals Spirit operates in
• Unit costs are going up and driving
down margins across the industry due
to higher fuel and labor costs
10. Industry Overview
• While capacity expansion has driven
prices down, JPM believes the
Spirit/United price war is the main
factor driving seat fares
• Spirit and other ULCCs (Ultra-Low Cost
Carriers) operate mainly in big-to-big
markets (major hub to major hub)
• As their research shows, big-to-big
markets have seen very little capacity
expansion
11. Trends
• Global PMI and RPK (Revenue
Passenger Kilometers) is rising
• Suggests strong continued
demand for air traffic growth
12. Key Drivers
• Spirit plans to keep fares low in order to grow passenger volume rather than
RASM
• With the increased volume, Spirit will expand into more large domestic hubs to
compete with higher priced competitors
• This is a winning strategy because Spirit has the lowest CASM of any airline and
can sustain low fares for the short term future
13. Key Drivers - Oil
• OPEC production cut talks increasing
• Russia requires oil at $72/Barrel to cover govt. spending
• Demand increasing over supply
• Building resistance around $50/Barrel
14. Key Drivers - Oil
• Weak USD
• Rumblings in Iraq and Kurdistan could disrupt flow of 500 barrels per day after
independence vote
• Trump expected to decertify Iran from 2015 nuclear agreement
• ”The worst deal ever.” - Trump
• Create another level of geopolitical uncertainty
• Oil inventories are decreasing
• Oil rigs in operation is decreasing as well
15. SWOT Analysis
Strengths
• Cost structure advantage over competitors
• Youngest airline fleet in the industry
• Large cash reserve and business model makes
Spirit resilient in bear markets
Weaknesses
• Heavy exposure in hurricane-impacted areas
(Florida, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic)
• Margins will come under pressure from increased
labor expenses after labor disputes are settled
Opportunities Threats
• Ongoing labor dispute with pilots, possible strike
• Continued price wars with United with no
indication of an end
• Labor issues caused Spirit to miss out on key
bookings during Labor Day weekend which will
negatively impact Q4 earnings
• Growing fleet by 53% over the next four years
(11.4% annualized)
• Higher capacity planes will drive CASM down
further
16. Valuation Tables
Company Ticker EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/EBITDAR P/E P/B P/Sales
Spirit Airlines SAVE 1.07 4.99 6.44 12.04 9.59 1.62 0.98
Allegiant ALGT 1.83 6.31 8.73 22.46 11.69 4.59 1.48
American AAL 1.04 6.82 9.83 18.96 9.73 6.64 0.62
Delta DAL 1.09 5.37 7.16 16.40 10.50 2.78 0.95
JetBlue JBLU 0.97 4.22 5.76 13.61 9.79 1.56 0.94
Southwest LUV 1.67 7.38 10.10 21.48 16.37 4.09 1.71
United UAL 0.75 4.41 6.52 13.46 7.99 2.22 0.54
High 1.83 7.38 10.10 22.46 16.37 6.64 1.71
Mean 1.22 5.75 8.02 17.73 11.01 3.64 1.04
Median 1.06 5.84 7.94 17.68 10.15 3.43 0.94
Low 0.75 4.22 5.76 13.46 7.99 1.56 0.54
Spirit's Rank* 4 5 6 7 6 6 3
*1 being highest, 7 being lowest
EV/EBITDAR is based on current EV and TTM EBITDAR from Q2 reportings
17. Valuation
• Based on a comps analysis,
Spirit is slightly undervalued to
fairly valued given current
conditions. However; we
believe that Spirit’s growth
potential and competitive
advantage present significant
upside from the current price.
• The use of multiples between
the median and lowest values
is fair given Spirit’s high debt
and risk factors.
EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/EBITDAR
Median 1.06 5.84 7.94 17.68
Implied EV 2,649.51 3,110.98 3,277.25 3,900.46
Minus Net Debt 120.47 120.47 120.47 120.47
Implied Equity Value 2,529.04 2,990.51 3,156.78 3,779.99
Shares Outstanding 69.37 69.37 69.37 69.37
Implied Share Price 36.46$ 43.11$ 45.51$ 54.49$
Low 0.75 4.22 5.76 13.46
Implied EV 1,872.70 2,248.88 2,376.89 2,968.74
Minus Net Debt 120.47 120.47 120.47 120.47
Implied Equity Value 1,752.23 2,128.41 2,256.42 2,848.27
Shares Outstanding 69.37 69.37 69.37 69.37
Implied Share Price 25.26$ 30.68$ 32.53$ 41.06$
Average 30.86 36.90 39.02 47.78
Current Valuation 38.64$
based on TTM figures from GAAP Income Statement
18. RASM/CASM Spreads
• Spirit will win the price war given their
extremely low CASM by outlasting
competitors such as United
• Spirit will provide greater upside
relative to peers as seat prices rise
Airline RASM* CASM* Spread
Spirit 8.82 7.62 1.20
American 12.91 13.48 (0.57)
Delta 12.60 12.60 -
United 11.11 12.53 (1.42)
Southwest 12.45 11.42 1.03
JetBlue 11.20 10.56 0.64
*RASM and CASM are displayed in cents
source: JPMorgan Equity Research,FY17
Estimates
19. Q3 Earnings Estimate
• Estimated EPS of $0.68 and Revenue
of $672M for Q3
• Analyst estimates ranging from $0.50
to $0.91 EPS
• High variability surrounding this
quarter due to extraordinary events
• Likely to see a significant downward
revision in Q4 EPS estimates by
management
• Earnings in Q3 and Q4 will likely be
weak due to inclement weather and
labor disputes
• JPM has cut Q4 EPS estimates by 60%
• If price wars persist, earnings could be
negatively impacted for FY2018 as
well
• Spirit will emerge as the winner in the
price war, resulting in higher volume
and market share
• Large upside when seat fares
normalize
20. Final Thoughts
Spirit Airlines has been oversold in the broader Airline sector sell-off this past summer. While Q3
and Q4 will be difficult, the business model is sound and growing. The fundamentals of the stock’s
story are unchanged and present a dip-buying opportunity for the fund.
Oversold
Spirit is down 36% since June 2nd
United Airlines down 21%
Delta is up 0.80%
Temporary Setbacks
Pilot strike
Negative impact from hurricanes
Ticket price slashing from other
airlines
Growth Potential
Rising oil prices will give Spirit a
competitive advantage
Price war will drive volume
Large upside potential when
ticket prices normalize