In this paper a broad study is completed to appraise the rice production in India in light of present and historical information. The critical components concentrated on are, land utilized, fertilizer, rainfall and production separately. To study the strength of interdependence between the factors and estimation of production multivariate correlation analysis and regression analysis have been applied.

1. An Analysis of factors effecting Rice
Production in India
Project Report
1/25/2016
Submitted By
Tushar Sharma
Utkarsh Mishra
Mrinal Rajpal

2. Table of Contents
Abstract-........................................................................................................................................................2
Keywords:......................................................................................................................................................2
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................2
Rice in Perspective....................................................................................................................................2
About Rice.....................................................................................................................................................3
History of Rice in India..................................................................................................................................3
Climatic Requirements..................................................................................................................................4
Objective-......................................................................................................................................................4
Methodology.................................................................................................................................................4
Rainfall ..........................................................................................................................................................5
FERTILIZER.....................................................................................................................................................5
Background ...................................................................................................................................................6
Analysis .........................................................................................................................................................6
Trend.........................................................................................................................................................6
Time series Analysis ..................................................................................................................................6
Interpretation .............................................................................................................................................10
Conclusion...................................................................................................................................................10
References ..................................................................................................................................................11

3. Abstract-
In this paper a broad study is completed to appraise the rice production in India in
light of present and historical information. The critical components concentrated
on are, land utilized, fertilizer, rainfall and production separately. To study the
strength of interdependence between the factors and estimation of production
multivariate correlation analysis and regression analysis have been applied. To
encourage the whole study and look after quality, consistency and precision of
information SPSS-20.0 version software is used.
Keywords: Rice production, land used, fertilizer, rainfall and multivariate
regression analysis.
Introduction
Rice in Perspective
In a Balinese legend, the lord Vishnu, male god of fertility and water, came to
earth to provide better food for the people who had only sugarcane juice as food.
Vishnu made Mother Earth give birth to rice and then fought Indra, lord of the
heavens, to force him to teach men to grow rice. Thus rice, as a source of life and
wealth and as a gift from the gods, was born from a union of the divine creative
forces represented in earth and water. Rice, therefore, was treated with
reverence
and respect and its culture developed into an elaborate ritual. Even today the
Balinese are considered efficient rice-growers in the Indonesian archipelago.
The importance of rice as a daily food is expressed differently in different
countries. For example, some people in Indonesia believe that the rice grain has a
soul like a human being. In Sri Lanka, astrologers are often consulted and prayers
offered before rice is planted. In southern China and parts of India, people greet
each other by saying, “Have you eaten your rice?”
In Japan, rice was considered second only to the emperor in sacredness. In fact,
the emperor, in annual solemn ceremonies, planted a few grains of rice in the
palace grounds (Hammond 1961). Money can be squandered by the prodigal and
he will be forgiven, but there is no forgiveness for a person who willfully
throwaways a handful of rice. This veneration for rice among the Japanese people

4. has its roots in mythology and the dawn of history, and it is not unlike the
significance attached to the food gods by all ancient people. The difference in
Japan, however, is that rice was in ancient days considered to be the food of the
gods and the samurais (Rabbitt 1940).
Most of these beliefs and practices have changed over the years but rice has
remained truly “life itself” for most of the world’s densely populated regions.
The ancient home of rice is monsoonal Asia. And it remains the area of the world
where rice is practically the whole of the people’s diet, nearly all of their
agriculture, and much of their hopes. Rice is clearly the most important food crop
of the world if one considers the area under rice cultivation and the number of
people depending on the crop.[1]
About Rice
Oryza Sativa, it is believed, is associated with wet, humid climate, though it is not
a tropical plant. It is probably a descendent of wild grass that was most likely
cultivated in the foothills of the far Eastern Himalayas. Another school of thought
believes that the rice plant may have originated in southern India, then spread to
the north of the country and then onwards to China. It then arrived in Korea, the
Philippines (about 2000 B. C.) and then Japan and Indonesia (about 1000 B. C.).
The journey of rice around the world has been slow, but once it took root it
stayed and became a major agriculture and economic product for the people. In
the Indian subcontinent more than a quarter of the cultivated land is given to rice
(20011-12). It is a very essential part of the daily meal in the southern and eastern
parts of India. In the northern and central parts of the subcontinent, where wheat
is frequently eaten, rice holds its own and is cooked daily as well as on festivals
and special occasions.[2]
History of Rice in India
India is an important center of rice cultivation. The rice is cultivated on the largest
areas in India. Historians believe that while the indica variety of rice was first
domesticated in the area covering the foothills of the Eastern Himalayas (i.e.
north-eastern India), stretching through Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and
Southern China, the japonica variety was domesticated from wild rice in southern

5. China which was introduced to India. Perennial wild rice still grow in Assam and
Nepal. It seems to have appeared around 1400 BC in southern India after its
domestication in the northern plains. It then spread to all the fertile alluvial plains
watered by rivers. Some says that the word rice is derived from the Tamil word
arisi.[2]
Climatic Requirements
In India rice is grown under widely varying conditions of altitude and climate. Rice
cultivation in India extends from 8 to35ºN latitude and from sea level to as high as
3000 meters. Rice crop needs a hot and humid climate. It is best suited to regions
which have high humidity, prolonged sunshine and an assured supply of water.
The average temperature required throughout the life period of the crop ranges
from 21 to 37º C. Maximum temp which the crop can tolerate 400C to 42 0C. [2]
Objective-
To establish the relationship and effect of various factors of production (rainfall,
fertilizer and land utilized) on the yield of rice.
Methodology
Regression analysis: In statistics, linear regression is an approach for modeling the
relationship between a scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory
variables (or independent variables) denoted by X. The case of one explanatory
variable is called simple linear regression.
Multiple regression is regression with two or more independent variables on the
right-hand side of the equation. Use multiple regression if more than one cause is
associated with the effect you wish to
In multiple regression, the criterion is predicted by two or more variables.

6. Rainfall
Variability in the amount and distribution of rainfall is the most important factor
limiting yields of rainfed rice, which constitutes about 80% of the rice grown in
South and Southeast Asia. For the same amount of rainfall, the coefficient of
variability of the rainfall is higher in the tropics than in the temperate areas. In
Low-rainfall areas, variability is high regardless of latitude (De Datta 1970).
Unfortunately, the world’s two largest rice-growing countries, India and
China, have many areas that receive less than 1200-1500 mm of rainfall. India,
with the largest rice-growing area in the world, often has inadequate or excessive
rainfall during the rainy season. As a result, drought or flood, and sometimes
both, cause substantial damage to rainfed rice production.
FERTILIZER
Plant nutrition as a science began to develop in 1840 when the German physical
chemist Justus von Liebig suggested that crop yields were directly related to the
content of plant nutrients or mineral elements in the manure applied to the soil.
Fertilizer use efficiency is the output of any crop per unit of fertilizer nutrient
applied under a specific set of soil and climatic conditions. Recently, Barber
(1977) defined fertilizer efficiency as the increase in yield of the harvested portion
of the crop per unit of fertilizer nutrient applied.

7. Background
Analysis
Trend
There is an upward trend as depicted in Figure, the rice production in India has
been increasing steadily. There is a 196%, growth of rice production from 1980 to
2013.
Time series Analysis
From the collected historical data, it is easy to analyze the factors which are
affecting the production of rice.
53.63
63.83
74.29 73.98
84.98
91.79
105.24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-2001 2005-2006 2012-2013
Rice Production (Million Tones)

8. Table – 1
From Table – 1, it is clear that the data collected for analysis is normally
distributed, the significance value of all the factors is greater than the value of
alpha.

9. Table – 2
As per Table-2, production of rice is highly correlated with the land utilized and
the quantity of fertilizer, but it is negatively correlated with annual rainfall, but
this correlation is statistically insignificant. The increase or decrease of rainfall
does not have any impact on the production.
Table -3

10. From, Table-3, the adjusted R2
= .954, which shows that 95.4% of the variation of
rice production in India can be explained by the independent variables.
The D-W value = 1.873, shows there is no problem of autocorrelation in the
model, overall the model is a good fit.
Table - 4
Table -4 is the ANOVA, where the significance of F is .000, this indicates that the
model is statically significant at the confidence level of 95%.
Table-5

11. Table -5, shows the value of the trend line Y = -107.370 +3.289L+.017R+.176F
Where,
Y: Production
L: Land utilized
R: Annual rainfall
F: Fertilizer
These three independent variables are statistically significant for the trend model
as the p-values are less than .05.
The VIF values for all the three independent variables are less than 10, thus no
problem of multicollinearity.
Interpretation
The production of rice is positively correlated with land utilized and the quantity
of fertilizer used.
 One Unit Change in F, will change the value of Y by 0.176
 One unit change in R , will change value Y by .017
 One unit change in L , will change value of Y by 3.289
Conclusion
As per above analysis, the rice production in India is greatly affected by land
utilized and the quantity of fertilizer used for the cultivation.
Our policy makers believe, good rainfall will produce good amount of rice, but as
per our analysis the rainfall has a minimal impact on the production of rice.
The impact of shortage of rainfall can be compensated by the water which comes
from various sources of irrigation, dams and canals.

12. References
 Principles and Practices of Rice Production by Surjit Kumar De Dutta[1].
 A Prediction on Rice Production in India through Multivariate Regression
Analysis by Somu Jena[2]
 RBI, www.rbi.com
 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-09-
16/news/66604515_1_foodgrain-production-advance-estimate-tonnes
 AIREA, http://www.airea.net/
 Ministry of Agriculture, http://agricoop.nic.in/