A presentation by David King, senior analyst and research, Gain Group delivered during the Afri-logistics & Supply Chain Convention 2016 on 3-4 March in Johannesburg, South Africa.

1. Southern Africa’s freight demand
The potential for rail and connecting with ports
David King
3 March 2016

2. Focussing on the 17 southern most countries
Total surface freight in 2014
=
1.5 billion tonnes
of which…
Intra region
Imports
Exports
Domestic 67%

3. Forecasted GDP growth
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GDPBillionUS$
Angola
Botswana
Burundi
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Congo, Rep.
Kenya
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Rwanda
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe

4. The possible declining role of South Africa in the region
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
South Africa 73% 68% 62% 53% 45% 36% 27%
All non South Africa 27% 32% 38% 47% 55% 64% 73%
Mozambique 2% 2% 2% 4% 8% 12% 17%
Tanzania 3% 5% 4% 5% 8% 11% 14%
Angola 5% 5% 14% 16% 15% 14% 13%
Source: BASELINE database 2050 version 2.1, 2012, CEPII
Percentage of Regional GDP

5. 30-year growth forecast (2014 -2045)
• GDP CAGR* = 2.8%
• Volume CAGR = 3.9%
• High long-term volume
growth forecasted for:
– Mozambique
– Botswana
– Tanzania
– Rwanda
– Uganda
– DRC
* Trading Economics 2015, http://www.tradingeconomics.com

6. Land freight transport intensity
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
GDPpertonne-km

7. Background and methodology
• RFDM sponsored by
• The 17 countries are divided into
63 districts
• Contains 66 commodity groups
• Base year with two forecast year
sets (2020, 2045)
• Started in 2012 and 2016 will be
the fifth iteration
• Output in tonnes and tonne-km

8. Trade volumes
(million tonnes) South Africa’s share
2045
2020
2014
505 million tonnes
=
Only 2.6% of world seaborne trade
but
41% of African seaborne trade*
* UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2015
Estimated and forecasted trade volumes

9. Continental trade profile 2014
67%
15%
2%
6%
10%
* Volumes in million tonnes
Exports
Imports

10. Opposing forces

11. Seaborne imports 2014

12. Seaborne imports 2045
Imports
=
128 million tonnes in 2014
and is forecasted to grow at a
CAGR of 4.4% to
485 million tonnes by 2045

13. Seaborne exports 2014

14. Seaborne exports 2045
Exports
=
318 million tonnes in 2014
and is forecasted to grow at a
CAGR of 3.7% to
968 million tonnes by 2045

15. Major commodities traded (2014 and 2045)*
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Coal Mining Wood
timber and
products
Processed
Foods
Gas Cement
Millions
Export tonnes 2014
* Excluding South Africa and intra-regional trade
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Coal
Mining
Iron Ore Gas Wood
timber and
products
Processed
Foods
Millions
Export tonnes 2045
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Fuel
refined
Processed
Foods
Iron &
Steel
Cement Wheat
Millions
Import tonnes 2014
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Fuel
refined
Iron &
Steel
Cement Processed
Foods
Wheat
Millions
Import tonnes 2045

16. Multi-modal corridors in the region
Congo Goba
Bas Congo Maputo
Malanje Limpopo
Lobito-Benguela North South
Namibe Beira
Trans Cunene Nacala
Trans Caprivi TAZARA
Trans Kalahari East Africa Central
Trans Oranje East Africa North
Manzini LAPSSET
Existing and potential multi-
modal corridors

17. Corridor trade volumes
24.34
16.33
11.47
8.02
6.71
5.14
4.80
4.80
4.33
4.30
4.18
3.33
2.30
2.23
2.18
1.82
1.78
1.77
1.61
1.43
1.38
1.29
0.95
0.27
105.64
36.58
60.53
61.63
80.11
26.35
13.57
23.79
23.41
18.87
26.71
15.38
9.72
10.36
16.88
5.64
7.73
26.33
6.14
5.88
6.91
2.61
19.35
1.41
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
EastAfricaNorth
Maputo
North-SouthBBR
North-SouthBR
Beira
Tazara
North-SouthNRZ
TransKalahari
EastAfricaCentral
TransCunene
Tanga
Congo
Limpopo
Lobito-Benguela
BasCongo
Lesotho
TransOranje
Nacala
Goba-Lebombo
Manzini-Durban
Malanje
Gauteng-Swaziland
Namibe
TransCaprivi
2045Tons
Millions
2014Tons
Millions
Tons 2014 Tons 2045
* 2045 forecasts based on current flow patterns

18. Estimated and forecasted port volumes
1
3
11
1
5
2 2
23
8
23
4
1 0
4
13
1 21
4
14
1
7
3 2
29
10
30
11
1 0
6
18
1 23
14
46
19
24
17
5
96 95
90
46
7
2
27
69
5
11
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
CABINDA
LOBITO
LUANDA
NAMIBE
POINTE-NOIRE
MATADI
LAMU
MOMBASA
BEIRA
MAPUTO
NACALA
PEMBA
LUDERITZ
WALVISBAY
DARESSALAAM
MTWARA
TANGA
ANGOLA CONGO DRC KENYA MOZAMBIQUE NAMIBIA TANZANIA
TonnesMillions
2014 2020 2045
82 24 17 101 239 29 85
* Port volumes exclude oil and gas exports

19. Trade flows - now and future

20. Trade flows - now and future

21. Rail potential of commodities
92%
90%
90%
90%
63%
60%
60%
52%
51%
51%
50%
49%
48%
47%
46%
44%
43%
43%
42%
42%
40%
40%
34%
34%
31%
30%
30%
30%
30%
29%
29%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
21%
21%
21%
21%
20%
19%
16%
14%
13%
5%
C O A L M I N I N G
I R O N O R E
M A G N E T I T E
R O C K P H O S P H A T E
S U L P H U R
M A N G A N E S E
C H R O M E
C E M E N T
F E R T I L I Z E R
G Y P S U M
F E R R O A L L O Y S
W H E A T
F L U O R S P A R
I R O N & S T E E L
M A I Z E
C O P P E R
N O N - F E R R O U S M E T A L P R O D U C T S
S A L T
O T H E R N O N - F E R R O U S M E T A L S
C H E M I C A L S
O T H E R M I N I N G
S T O N E , G R A N I T E , L I M E S T O N E
M O T O R V E H I C L E S A N D T R U C K S
C O T T O N
G R A I N S O R G H U M
O T H E R P E T R O L E U M P R O D U C T S
S O Y A B E A N S
B A R L E Y
P R O C E S S E D F O O D S
M O T O R V E H I C L E P A R T S
F U E L R E F I N E D
B E V E R A G E S
S O Y A B E A N P R O D U C T S
R I C E
A N I M A L F E E D
T O B A C C O P R O D U C T S
M E T A L P R O D U C T S & E L E C T R O N I C S
S C R A P M E T A L S
O T H E R M A N U F A C T U R I N G
P A P E R
P U L P O F W O O D A N D P A P E R
W O O D T I M B E R A N D P R O D U C T S
T E X T I L E P R O D U C T S
S U N F L O W E R S E E D
O T H E R A G R I C U L T U R E
G A S

22. Rail potential 2014
Country
2014
Total tonnes
(m)
Potential rail
tonnes (m)
Rail potential
Angola 161.1 9.7 6.0%
Botswana 20.1 5.4 27.0%
Burundi 10.4 0.8 7.7%
Congo 34.8 3.1 8.9%
DRC 57.9 6.8 11.8%
Kenya 64.7 11.9 18.5%
Lesotho 4.9 0.9 18.5%
Malawi 27.6 3.8 13.8%
Mozambique 55.7 10.0 18.0%
Namibia 14.1 3.1 22.4%
Rwanda 19.4 2.0 10.2%
Swaziland 14.1 2.6 18.5%
Tanzania 65.1 10.0 15.4%
Uganda 51.4 6.0 11.7%
Zambia 37.1 7.1 19.0%
Zimbabwe 26.7 6.9 25.9%

23. Rail potential 2045
Country
2045
Total tonnes
(m)
Potential rail
tonnes (m)
Rail potential
Angola 575.4 51.5 8.9%
Botswana 106.7 56.4 52.9%
Burundi 28.0 2.2 7.7%
Congo 113.1 12.1 10.7%
DRC 287.4 43.0 15.0%
Kenya 201.7 37.5 18.6%
Lesotho 15.4 2.9 18.9%
Malawi 114.0 16.9 14.8%
Mozambique 365.5 91.7 25.1%
Namibia 62.0 14.8 23.8%
Rwanda 98.7 12.1 12.2%
Swaziland 38.6 8.5 21.9%
Tanzania 342.6 55.5 16.2%
Uganda 249.8 38.2 15.3%
Zambia 143.4 28.7 20.0%
Zimbabwe 124.3 59.0 47.5%

24. Thank you
david@gaingroup.co.za
“The reality about transportation is that it's future-oriented. If we're planning
for what we have, we're behind the curve.”
- Anthony Foxx