Kunstig intelligens: Fra hype til virkelighet?

1
KUNSTIG
INTELLIGENS:
FRA HYPE TIL
VIRKELIGHET
Frokostseminar
22. november

AGENDA
2COPYRIGHT ©2018 ACCENTURE. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
08.30-08.50 Hva er AI og hva er potensialet i
Norge?
Eirik Nordbø
Leder for AI i Accenture Norge
08.50-09.10 Hvordan brukes AI idag og hva
må vi være varsomme på?
Jyoti Sharma
Tech Visionary, Accenture Strategy
09.10-09.30 Hvordan få mennesker og
maskiner til å samspille?
Vegard Kolbjørnsrud
Postdoktor i Strategi ved Handelshøyskolen
BI og Seniorforsker i Accenture
09.30-10.00 Spørsmål, svar og diskusjon

3
HVA ER AI?
OG HVA ER POTENSIALET I NORGE?
Frokostseminar
22. november

THROUGH SENSING, COMPREHENDING AND ACTING
MACHINES ARE ABLE TO LEARN
4
SENSE ACTCOMPREHEND
LEARN
Copyright © 2018 Accenture All rights reserved.

HOW TO UNDERSTAND
THE DIFFERENT LEVELS
OF AI
5
Risk
analysis
COPYRIGHT ©2018 ACCENTURE. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
APPLICATIONS – Enable intelligent
Enterprise using Machine Learning &
Supporting Technologies
AI CAPABILITIES – Machine
Learning Techniques to Comprehend,
Reason, Predict & Optimize Constraints
MACHINE LEARNING – Algorithms
& Architectures that allow ‘learning’:
- Supervised
- Semi Supervised
- Unsupervised
- Reinforcement
Knowledge
Representation
Search and
Optimization
Predictive
Systems
Biometrics,
Facial &
Gesture
Recognition
Genomic and
*iomic Analysis
Personality
Insight
Expert
Systems
(Inference)
Intelligent
Automation
Recommendation
Systems
Text,
speech
image &
video
analytics
Augmented
Reality
Intelligent
Products
Natural
Language
Understanding
Computer
Vision
Speech to
Text
Audio &
Signal
Processing
Virtual
Agents
Deep Learning
Machine
Learning

THE TRUE POWER OF AI AFFECTS US IN FIVE WAYS
6
INTELLIGENT
AUTOMATION
ENHANCED
INTERACTIONENHANCED
JUDGEMENT INTELLIGENT
PRODUCTS
ENHANCED
TRUST

… AND ACCELERATES THE GROWTH IN THE
NORWEGIAN ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY
Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics
2,2
3,7
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Baseline AI steady state
AI as a productivity factor increases yearly
growth from 2,2% to 3,7% annually in
Norway…
… and increasing its size by 1035 bn
NOK in 2035
… Reducing the time for the economy
to double in size from 32 to 19
years..

THE NORDIC COUNTRIES HAVE LEADING AI
ABSORPTION CAPABILITIES
Source: Accenture and Frontier Economics
According to Accenture research, the Nordic
countries are well positioned to absorb and
exploit the new technologies in our economy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
The NAC Index
ALL THE NORDIC COUNTRIES
ARE TOP 7

BUSINESS
COMMONS
9
o Communication infrastructure
o Human capital
o Quality of governance and
institutions
o Access to capital
o Economic openness
TOP 15 COUNTRIES 4G AVAILABILITY
1. South Korea – 96%
2. Japan – 85%
3. Lithuania – 84 %
4. Hong Kong – 84%
5. Netherlands 84%
6. Singapore – 83%
7. Norway – 82%
8. Kuwait – 82%
9. Sweden – 81%
10. United states – 81%
11. Qutar – 81%
12. Hungary – 80%
13. Australia – 79%
14. Taiwan – 78%
15. Finland 76%
7. Norway – 82%
9. Sweden – 81%
15. Finland – 76%

10
o Government support and
spending on R&D
o Quality of scientific research
institution
o Standard settings
o Urbanization
o Expanding middle class
TAKE-OFF
FACTORS
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
Top 20 countries worldwide on R&D spending as share of GDP

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Norway
Spain
Finland
Ireland
Sweden
Croatia
Netherlands
CzechRepublic
Portugal
Belgium
Austria
Luxembourg
Germany
Malta
Slovakia
EuropeanUnion28
EuropeanUnion
Estonia
France
Poland
Slovenia
UnitedKingdom
Lithuania
Italy
Latvia
Cyprus
Greece
Hungary
Romania
Bulgaria
SHARE OF ENTERPRISES USING MOBILE INTERNET TO RUN
BUSINESS APPLICATIONS
11
o Formal and informal knowledge
transfers
o Organizations’ ability to embrace
new technologies within
organization
o Consumer willingness to adopt
new technologies
o Data privacy and security
concerns
TRANSFER
FACTORS

12
o Entrepreneurial culture
o “Makerism” movement
o University—industry collaboration
in R&D
o Development of technology
clusters
o Organizations’ focus on customer
needs
INNOVATION
DYNAMO
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Survival rate of 3 year old businesses in European
countries

AI IS THE NEW
DRIVER OF
ECONOMIC
VALUE….WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO
DOUBLE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATES
2,6
2,1
2,5
2,2
1,7
1,6
1,4 1,4
1,7
0,8
1,6
1,7
1,0
4,6
4,1
3,9
3,7
3,6
3,2
3,0 3,0
2,9
2,7 2,7
2,5
1,8
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
Gross Value Added (GVA) is a close approximation of GDP.
Real GVA Growth in 2035 (%)

JOIN THE AI JOURNEY TODAY

AI Frokostseminar 2018
HVORDAN BRUKES AI I DAG?
OG HVA MÅ VI VÆRE VARSOMME PÅ NÅR VI TAR I BRUK DENNE TEKNOLOGIEN?
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved.

Software-as-a-Service
INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT)
E-commerce
Social network
Mobile apps
DIGITAL TRACEABILITY
BIG DATA ANALYTICS
Cloud/ Data platforms “Wearables”
”Crowd-sourcing”
Location-based services
”Gamification”
Voice recognition
AR & VR
ROBOTICS
Drones
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Biometrics
3D printing
Digital payments
Blockchain
TID
HVOR MODEN ER BRUKEN AV AI?
MODENHET

MODENHET
TID
AI-UTVIKLINGEN ER I TIDLIG FASE
Komplekse algoritmer for økt
innsikt og samhandling på tvers
av verdikjeden
Autonom handling basert på
innsikt uten menneskelig
interaksjon
IDAG
Avanserte algoritmer som
adresserer spesifikke
bruksscenarier
TIDLIG FASE MODEN FASE OVERGANGSFASE

DEN DIGITALE
HELSEASSISTENTEN:
ANN“THE WARM
HANDS OF
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE”

Lære AI å følge normer og
regler i samfunnet
OPPDRAGELSE
Sikre tilstrekkelig datakvalitet som
sørger for riktige beslutninger
DATAKVALITET
Definere hvordan menneske
og maskin skal spille på lag
SAMEKSISTENS

www.accenture.com/technologyvision
Jyoti Sharma:
j.a.sharma@accenture.com

Den intelligente organisasjonen:
Hvordan få mennesker og
maskiner til å samspille
Kunstig intelligens: Fra hype til virkelighet?
Oslo House of Innovation, 22. nov 2018
Vegard Kolbjørnsrud, Assistant Professor, BI Norwegian Business
School & Senior Research Fellow, Accenture

A digital world…
30
Data
everywhere
Intelligent
technology
Rapid
change

…requires a new form of organization
31
The
Intelligent
Organization
that
solves complex
problems
adapts
combines people and
intelligent machines

Sensing the environment
Sensing involves observing and registering the
external and internal environment, i.e. collecting
data
33
Sense
Observe | Register
S

Turning data into insights
Comprehension involves using data and
observations from sensing activities to discern
context, detect patterns, and make inferences
34
Compre-
hend
Discern | Detect | Infer
C

Acting on data-based insights
Action refers to the decision-making and productive
activities of an organization
35
Act
Decide | Make | Do
A

Learning from experience
Learning refers to the ability to acquire knowledge
or skills in order to adapt and improve behavior and
cognitive understanding
36
Learn
Adapt | Improve
L

Explaining how and why
Explaining refers to the ability to show how
something works, to explicate causal relationships,
articulate purpose, and set direction
37
Explain
Show | Clarify | Direct
E

How Tesla is building and using its SCALE
capabilities
38
Sense
Eight 360-degree
view cameras
Comprehend
Analyze patterns in
sensor data
Act
Enable Tesla Autopilot
self-driving capabilities
Learn
Improve algorithms,
enabling expansion of
Autopilot functionality
Explain
Asses progress
towards self-driving
vision, provide
direction and
purpose

Good decisions are…
39
Accurate Meaningful

Trusting AI advice – skepticism in the Nordics
Source: Kolbjørnsrud, Amico, Thomas (2017) "Partnering with AI: how organizations can win over skeptical managers," Strategy & Leadership, 45(1)
* I would trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future (e.g. an investment decision or deciding whom to hire or promote).
APAC 42%
Europe 18%
Strongly agree
Americas 30%
Nordics 8%
India 56%
Finland 6%
Max/Min Observations
I would trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future *

Managers want machines to explain their logic
before they will accept it
Nothing would allow me to trust advice
generated by an intelligent system
6%
Advice is limited to simple rule-based decisions 33%
People I trust use such systems
61%
33%
The system provides convincing explanations 51%
The system has a proven track-record 57%
I understand how the system works
and generates advice
What would allow you to trust advice generated by an intelligent system?
Source: Kolbjørnsrud, Amico, Thomas (2017) "Partnering with AI: how organizations can win over skeptical managers," Strategy & Leadership, 45(1)

The bilingual manager…
43
Human Machine
…knows who can answer what questions

Steps to success
Start exploring, experiment and engage with new technology
and pilots – together
Start building the intelligent organization—combine AI and
collective human intelligence for optimal outcomes
From rigid hierarchy to collaborative community
Develop bilingual managers that know what humans and
machines can do, together
?

This presentation is based on
Espen
Andersen
45
Chandler
Johnson
Vegard
Kolbjørnsrud
Ragnvald
Sannes
Andersen, Johnson, Kolbjørnsrud, Sannes (2018) “The data-driven organization: intelligence at SCALE” in At the Forefront, Looking Ahead, Universitetsforlaget (Link)

46
KUNSTIG
INTELLIGENS:
FRA HYPE TIL
VIRKELIGHET
Frokostseminar
22. november

Kunstig intelligens: Fra hype til virkelighet?

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