2. Author : Vikhram Nehru
Formerly Chief Economist and Director, Poverty
Reduction, Economic Management, Financial and Private
Sector Development in the East Asia Region of the World
Bank
A consultant for the East Asia Region of the World
Senior Associate in the Asia
Program and Bakrie Chair in
Southeast Asian Studies at the
Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace
3. SOUTH EAST ASIA’S MAP
All share strategic location and access to natural resource
Economic rapid growth help integration
Political stability will reshaping global balance of power
Conclusion : The continued development is important to the world
4. Economic Promise
Combined GDP $1.9 trillion [bigger
than India]
Population Almost 600 million
people
Average per capita Near China
income
In the last decade
Countries average a growth rate of more
than 5 percent per year
If southeast Asia were one country
Would be the world’s 9th largest economy
Would be the most trade-dependent
Would be one of the world’s consistently
good performer
5. 1970: many countries were singled out for their economic promise
“Tiger Cubs”
“Tiger Cubs”
Middle Income Economy Middle Income Economy
“Asian Tiger”
“Tiger Cubs”
Middle Income Economy
High Income Economy
“Tiger Cubs”
Middle Income Economy
6. SOUTHEAST ASIA’GROWTH
After great recession in 2009
In 2010:GDP growing over 8%
Southeast Asia
1997-1998: Financial crisis
2000
7. Strategic Location, Abundant Resources
MALACCA STRAITS : World 2nd busiest shipping channel
: World 2nd most popular oil tanker route
8. Impact of ASEAN Natural Resources
Provided “Vietnam” industrialization in 1990
Provided “tiger cubs "the start
for industrialization in 1970-1980
“Tiger cubs” adopt the export-oriented policies
and others strategy that made the high level of
investment and a continuing rapid growth
9. Natural resources made service trends put the region' countries into
some of the world’s highest
Make Singapore the world’s trade-to-GDP rations
largest transshipments port World Shipping 36%
Malacca Straits Trade $390 b
Provide “Tiger cubs” a large tourism industries
Singapore: pushing to become a global biomedical
sciences center
Kuala Lumpur : pushing to be a global canter of
Islamic finance
10. • Lowered trade tariff
• Established a Free Trade Area among members
• Played a pivotal stabilizing role in both the region
and the world
• Mediated conflicts
example : Thai-Cambodia border conflict
• Resolve the dispute over the resource-rich Spratly
Islands
11. • China’s emergence in the next two decades as the
world largest economy
• China’s regional dominance possible security risk
• A highly educated and innovative workforce,
a culture of excellence, entrepreneurial skills,
access to finance and infrastructure,
a competitive business environment
12. • Economies will face a bumpy ride as growth
slows because..
- international economic environment becomes more
sluggish
- inflationary pressures
- commodity prices become more volatile
• Political tensions >> new phrase of uncertainty
• Fueled growth will re-emerge
• The sub-region is proving to be an indispensable
source
13. “The sub-region’s middle-income
economies must move up the value chain
to further their economic prosperity…If
they accomplish this SE Asia could well
become home to full-fledge tigers and
dragons..”
