Opportunity or Armageddon? – it’s your choice.
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Jim Henderson, Shirlaws Jim provoked the senses with the question - Opportunity or Armageddon? – it’s your choice. Theme: Great Change Creates Great Opportunity This event explored why businesses need to stay flexible to take advantage of the opportunities and shifts in market conditions.
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Opportunity or Armageddon? – it’s your choice.
- 1. @TheBusJourney #SMEJourney The BusinessJourney 30 August 2016
- 4. The Business Journey “Opportunity or Armageddon” 30th August 2016
- 5. Theme “Great Change Creates Great Opportunity” Why businesses need to stay flexible to take advantage of the opportunities and shifts in market conditions.
- 6. Markets – FTSE, Dow, Hang Seng • The markets are good indicators as to what’s coming in the economy and are always ahead of the economy by about 6 months • Although markets do jump about in the short term, it’s possible to draw trends over time – to help businesses make key decisions based on long-term market directions
- 7. July 2007 – March 2009 The Great Depression
- 8. January 2016 to Date Brexit
- 9. June 2012 - 2015, Independence result
- 10. Growth
- 11. Growth
- 12. Growth
- 13. Growth
- 14. 2 Black Holes,
- 15. We Always Recover • Brexit is a blip (in macro economic terms) • The trendists see a period of growth for the next 15 years • That being the case, what blockages need to be overcome in your business to take advantage? (5 mins)
- 16. Your Choice Opportunity or Armageddon ? How’s your mind-set? What beliefs do you hold? Those showing courage, confidence and innovation always win in times of great change
- 17. 31 August, 2016 Thank You Jim Henderson– Shirlaws Group E: jim.henderson@shirlawsgroup.com M: 07817 745958
Editor's Notes
- Staying flexible is difficult when we are bombarded in the press with messages of crisis, Armageddon, we’re doomed. It freezes our decision making. Brexit was in our minds when we put together this event – what does it mean for my business is a reasonable question to ask. As everyone dived into the detail at the time, I thought I’d give you some context and perspective which should help in your decision making as to what to do next. I want you to go away today with a bit more courage and confidence and renewed focus to move your business forward and don’t get delayed / hung up / distracted by things you can’t control.
- Ignore the press – the markets are better indicators of what is coming in the economy next. “You cannot buck the markets” – who said that. Best example is 2008 depression actually was predicted by the analysts and fund managers in early 2007. Markets peaked in mid July 07 then started tumbling to hit the bottom in March 2009. The economy in July 2007 was still in boom time / greed – early 2008 was when the economy started to be hit.
- What trend do you see here – scale is not great – should show much steeper.
- What trend do you see here? If the market is an indicator of future economic trend, what decisions would you take for your business?
- What trend do you see here?
- Mid 40’s to early 60’s 18 years – What trend?
- What trend? Invest a £ in mid60’s get a £1 back in 1980
- What trend
- What trend? Flat -
- So what’s next? More careful examination shows an 18 year / 14 year trend
- Oil crisis 1974 – barrel of oil increased 70% (we’re doomed) 1990 ERM based recession followed by black Wednesday in 1992 – interest rates in the same day went from 10% to 12% to 15% (we’re really doomed) Great recession in 2008 – (Armageddon) After the horrors of 911 in 2001 markets reached a 3 year low (but recovered) Russian invasion of the Ukraine territory March 2014 – Russian stack market dropped 11% before recovering (next world war) Brexit in June 2016 – OMG – how are we going to survive. Projects halted (client story, Dutch owner - now re-started)