PAPOR 2012 Conference Program

December 6-7, 2012 Sir Francis Drake Hotel, San Francisco, CA
PAPOR
Pacific Chapter of American Association
for Public Opinion Research
PAPOR ANNUAL CONFERENCE

2012 ANNUAL PAPOR CONFERENCE 1
WELCOME TO THE 2012 ANNUAL PAPOR CONFERENCE!
Welcome to the 2012 PAPOR (Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers) Conference! The
Executive Council is glad you have come to this fabulous event, which caps off the amazing year that PAPOR has had. This year’s
conference will highlight some of the emerging methodologies in our field, with presentations covering topics such as
smartphone surveys and big data, but still touch upon methods that have been mainstays in our field, like telephone
interviewing and online panels. The short courses, taught by two heavy hitters in the national organization (AAPOR), provide the
opportunity to learn new skills and techniques in our ever evolving industry. The PAPOR Executive Council hopes you enjoy
yourself here in San Francisco – feel free to hunt any of us down to learn more about PAPOR, pick our brains about good
restaurants in SF or fun things to do in the area, or ask any general questions about the conference!
Happy Learning and Networking!
~Sarah Cho, 2012 PAPOR Conference Chair
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2012 PAPOR Executive Council......................................................................................................................................................2
Day at a Glance: Thursday, December 6........................................................................................................................................3
Day at a Glance: Friday, December 7.............................................................................................................................................4
Short Course Information .............................................................................................................................................................5
Plenary Information ......................................................................................................................................................................6
Panel Abstracts and Description....................................................................................................................................................7
Poster Session Abstracts................................................................................................................................................................16
Presenter Biographies....................................................................................................................................................................18
Conference Sponsors.....................................................................................................................................................................23
Local Eats and Drinks .....................................................................................................................................................................24
Sir Francis Drake Hotel Floor Plan.........................................................................................................................Inside back cover

2 2012 ANNUAL PAPOR CONFERENCE
2012 PAPOR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
The PAPOR Executive Council encourages you to seek us out and say hello!
Feel free to ask us for more information about the conference or PAPOR.
President Bob Davis | Davis Research
Past President Paul T. Melevin | State of California EDD
Vice-President/President-Elect Mechelle Pierce | Apperson
Treasurer Paul Johnson | SSI
Conference Chair Sarah Cho | Kaiser Family Foundation
Associate Conference Chair Sonja Petek | Public Policy Institute of California
Membership Chair Corinne Hoag | Goodwin Simon Strategic Research
Student Paper Competition Chair Phil Brenner | University of Massachusetts Boston
Councilor-at-Large John Fogli | Sentenium, Inc.
Councilor-at-Large Donna Fong | Population Research Laboratory
Councilor-at-Large Brianne Gilbert | Center for the Study of Los Angeles
Councilor-at-Large Sam Luks | YouGov
Councilor-at-Large Benn Messer | Washington State University
Councilor-at-Large Anthony Salvanto | CBS News

DAY AT A GLANCE: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
7:30 am – 2:00 pm Conference Registration / Check In
Sponsored by
Mezzanine
8:00 am – 10:30 am SHORT COURSE 1
Social Media Research Methods
Franciscan Room
10:30 am – 10:45 am Mid-morning break
Sponsored by
Mezzanine
10:45 am – 1:15 pm SHORT COURSE 2
Applying a Total Error Perspective to Qualitative and Quantitative Social and
Marketing Research
Franciscan Room
1:15 pm – 2:00 pm Lunch (on your own)
2:00 pm – 2:15 pm 2012 PAPOR CONFERENCE OPENS – WELCOME
Bob Davis, 2012 PAPOR President
Franciscan Room
2:15 pm – 3:30 pm PANEL 1
Harnessing the Web for Survey Research
Franciscan Room
3:30 pm – 4:00 pm Mid-afternoon break
Sponsored by
Mezzanine &
Windsor Room
4:00 pm – 5:30 pm PANEL 2
Survey Research Trends and Techniques
Franciscan Room
5:30 pm – 6:15 pm WELCOME RECEPTION Cypress &
Monterey Room
6:15 pm – 8:45 pm DINNER AND PLENARY
Polls, Posts, and Tweets: 2012 Election Polling in the Era of Social Media
Wine with Dinner Sponsored by
Dinner Sponsored by
Cypress &
Monterey Room
8:45 pm – 9:45 pm COCKTAIL RECEPTION
Sponsored by
Bar Drake
PAPOR
Pacific Chapter of
American Association for
Public Opinion Research

DAY AT A GLANCE: FRIDAY, DECEMBER 7
7:30 am – noon Conference Registration / Check In
Sponsored by
Mezzanine
8:30 am – 10:00 am PANEL 3
Western States and the 2012 Election
Franciscan Room
10:00 am – 10:15 am AAPOR PRESENTATION
Paul Lavrakas, 2012-2013 AAPOR President
Liz Hamel, 2012-2013 AAPOR Membership and Chapter Relations Chair
Franciscan Room
10:15 am – 10:45 am POSTER SESSION AND BREAK
Sponsored by
Windsor Room
10:45 am – 12:15 pm PANEL 4
Polling is Hard – Sensitive Topics, Hard to Reach Populations, and Difficult
Issues
Franciscan Room
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm LUNCH AND CHAPTER MEETING
Sponsored by
Mezzanine
2:00 pm – 3:30 pm PANEL 5
A Review of the 2012 Election, Including a Focus on New Studies and Cutting-
Edge Methods in Public Opinion and Voting Research
Franciscan Room
3:30 pm – 3:45 pm NEW PRESIDENT’S ADDRESS AND CONFERENCE CLOSING
Mechelle Pierce, 2013 PAPOR President
Franciscan Room

SHORT COURSE INFORMATION
SHORT COURSE 1 Social Media Research Methods
Time/Location Thursday, 8:00 am – 10:30 am, Franciscan Room
Instructor Reg Baker, Senior Consultant, Market Strategies International
Description The model for social research for the better part of the last century has been one that relies heavily on designing
surveys and asking questions. Over about the last five years, the emergence of Web 2.0 technologies and
widespread use of social networking services has created the opportunity for a new type of research, one that is
more focused on listening to people talk about issues of concern to them in natural conversation rather than
drawing them into structured surveys and asking them questions. This type of research is not likely to replace
surveys any time soon, but it might yield insights that may be difficult to uncover with traditional survey methods,
help to improve survey design and even provide access to people who otherwise may be difficult to reach in
meaningful numbers.
This course is designed for survey researchers interested in learning more about social media research (SMR). Its
objective is to increase attendees’ understanding of the potential opportunities and drawbacks of SMR. We will
address the key issues a survey researcher faces when considering SMR, either as a complement to or a
replacement for traditional research. We will discuss the different types of social media platforms (social
networking sites, blogs, microblogs, online communities, etc.) and their potential use in research as well as the
emerging research methods appropriate to each.
SHORT COURSE 2 Applying a Total Error Perspective to Qualitative and Quantitative Social and Marketing Research
Time/Location Thursday, 10:45 am – 1:15 pm, Franciscan Room
Instructor Paul J. Lavrakas, Ph.D., Independent Consultant
Description This course will focus on the instructor’s long-held belief that the Total Error (TE) perspective should be the basis
from which all social, behavioral, and marketing research practitioners and scholars conceptualize, monitor the
implementation of, and interpret their research studies. TE is a comprehensive and systematic framework that
encompasses all potential forms of “error” (i.e., sources of bias and variance) that may threaten and undermine
the reliability and validity of any research study, including focus groups, IDIs, observational research, content
analysis, and survey research. The instructor has been applying the TE framework essentially on a daily basis in all
his work for the past 20 years since studying Groves’ (1989) seminal text, Survey Errors and Survey Costs. Those
who attend the course will learn about the components of the TE framework and how to apply TE to a wide range
of research purposes and settings. These include: (a) planning, implementing and interpreting original research
studies; (b) using results from research someone else has conducted to make important decisions; (c) evaluating
the credibility of research studies reported by the news media; (d) structuring legal expert reports and testimony
about research studies; and (e) writing RFPs and scoring proposals that are submitted. Despite what some appear
to believe, TE is as relevant (and actionable) to qualitative researchers as it is to quantitative researchers.
These short courses have been approved and are eligible for 2.5 PRC (Professional
Researcher Certification Program) contact hours in the Research category.
(For more information on the PRC program, go to www.mra-net.org.)

PLENARY INFORMATION
PLENARY POLLS, POSTS, AND TWEETS: 2012 ELECTION POLLING IN THE ERA OF SOCIAL MEDIA
Time/Location Thursday, 6:15 pm – 8:45 pm, Cypress and Monterrey Room
Moderator Reg Baker, Senior Consultant, Market Strategies International
Reg Baker is Senior Consultant to Market Strategies International, a US-based research company specializing in
healthcare, information technology, financial services, telecommunications, and energy utilities. Prior to joining
Market Strategies in 1995 he served as Vice President of Research Services at NORC. Throughout his career Reg
has focused on the methodological and operational implications of new research technologies including CATI,
CAPI, WEB, and now mobile. He writes and presents on these and related issues to diverse national and
international audiences and blogs off and on as The Survey Geek. He is active in national and international
research organizations including AAPOR, ESOMAR and the Council of American Survey Research Organizations
(CASRO). He chaired AAPOR's Online Panels Task Force and is currently co-chair of that organization’s Non-
Probability Sampling Task Force. He has twice chaired ESOMAR's Online Conference, recently chaired ESOMAR's
3D Digital Dimension conference and serves as a consultant to ESOMAR’s Professional Standards Committee. He is
a member of the Executive Editorial Board of the International Journal of Market Research.
Panelists Paul Hitlin, Senior Researcher, Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism
Paul Hitlin supervises PEJ's content coding operations, assists with the design of content analysis research, and
directs the study of social media. Paul has led research on many of the Project’s releases such as, “The Final Days
of the Media Campaign 2012,” “The Master Narratives in Campaign 2012” and “How the Media Covered the 2012
Primary Campaign.” For more than two years, he was the primary author of PEJ’s weekly New Media Index
reports. Prior to joining the organization in 2005, Paul worked for the Pew Internet and American Life Project, the
Georgetown Public Policy Institute and the Center for Media and Public Affairs. He has an M.A. from Georgetown
University's Communication, Culture, and Technology program and a B.A. from Hampshire College in Amherst,
Massachusetts.
Mark Mellman, CEO, The Mellman Group
Mark Mellman is one of the nation’s leading public opinion researchers and communication strategists. Recently
named "Pollster of the Year" for the second time by the American Association of Political Consultants, he is CEO of
The Mellman Group, a polling and consulting firm whose clients include leading political figures, Fortune 500
companies, and some of the nation's most important public interest groups. The Mellman Group counts among its
clients the Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate and the Democratic Whip in the House (Leader Harry Reid, Whip
Steny Hoyer). In addition, Mellman has helped guide the campaigns of some twenty U.S. Senators, nine Governors
and over two dozen Members of Congress. Mellman also serves as consultant to many of the nation’s most
important public interest organizations ranging from The National Education Association, to The Leadership
Conference on Civil Rights and The Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids. Government agencies, including the
Department of Justice, the World Bank and the State Department have also sought Mellman’s guidance.
Mellman’s corporate clients include Intuit (the makers of Quicken), Coca Cola, and MGM Resorts. Mellman
received his undergraduate degree from Princeton, and graduate degrees from Yale University, where he taught in
the Political Science department. He has served as a consultant on politics to CBS News, a presidential debate
analyst for PBS, and is currently on the faculty of The George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political
Management. Mellman’s op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post and The Los Angeles
Times, among other leading papers and he writes an influential weekly column for The Hill, the newspaper for and
about Congress.

PANEL ABSTRACTS AND DESCRIPTION
PANEL 1 HARNESSING THE WEB FOR SURVEY RESEARCH
Time/Location Thursday, 2:15 pm – 3:30 pm, Franciscan Room
Panel Chair Paul Johnson, SSI
Presentation Title
Have You Seen This Ad? Exploring Two Methodological Approaches to Measuring Confirmed
Awareness
Presenter Jacob Depue, Ph.D., Media Evaluator, Professional Data Analysts, Inc.
Abstract Measuring ad awareness is a critical task for health practitioners and evaluators interested in determining the
impact of a health media campaign. Although the ad awareness literature has recently seen heightened
conversation on the methodology of measuring ad awareness, there continues to be a lack of consensus on the
best approach to do so. In this presentation, we outline two different approaches—use of a screenshot and
showing an entire ad to participants—to measuring awareness, and discuss the implications of using both
approaches. We then provide an illustrative example of using the first approach in a longitudinal evaluation of
ClearWay Minnesota’s statewide tobacco cessation media campaign.
The first approach involves using a screenshot from a memorable moment of an ad as an aid to participants.
Participants are asked whether they’ve seen an ad that features the scene shown in the image. If they answer
‘yes’, they’re then presented with a series of multiple choice questions featuring events and themes from the ad to
validate their confirmed awareness. If they are correctly able to answer at least one of these questions, they are
reported as having confirmed awareness. This approach provides a more conservative measure of ad awareness,
as it requires participants to validate their awareness through correctly identifying specific scenes and themes
from the ad. However, this approach can fall victim to methodological shortcomings if screenshots or scene
descriptions are not properly chosen.
The second approach involves showing a participant the full version of an ad, followed by asking the participant
whether or not they’ve seen the ad prior to their current viewing. This approach generally leads to higher overall
awareness scores and decreases false negatives, but can increase false confirmations. Both approaches have
important methodological implications, and discussion of these implications is critical to validating confirmed
awareness measures.
Presentation Title Being Mobile, Being Surveyed
Presenter Paul Harwood, User Sentiment Researcher, Facebook
Co-Author Sally Sadosky, Market Researcher – Mobile, Facebook
Abstract Today, every facet of our lives—the way we work, are educated, socialize, play games, and even shop—is going
mobile. As more and more of our on- and off-line lives go mobile, public opinion research needs to go mobile, too.
As researchers we have already made a great start in understanding the mobile environment. There is a
burgeoning literature on cell-phone effects (including an AAPOR Task Force, 2010); however, such work
predominately focuses on the application of the device as an actual telephone (comparing landline v. cellphone).
Increasingly, the telephone component of mobile devices is secondary, as visualizations and text-based capabilities
continue to improve. In this study, therefore, we focus on examining the differences (e.g. response effects)
between text-based surveys completed via a mobile device and via a computer.
Utilizing a quasi-experimental design, we analyze the response effects between survey completions via mobile
device versus a computer. We recruited, via email, a sample of Facebook users for a product satisfaction survey.
The recruitment email was sent to users’ primary email account, and the device a user chose to complete the
survey was recorded. We then analyzed disparities between responses (between initial recruit and follow-ups) via
the two device types, among user demographic groups.

PANEL 1 HARNESSING THE WEB FOR SURVEY RESEARCH, continued
Panel Chair Paul Johnson, SSI
Presentation Title Building a Respondent-First Online Research Experience
Presenter Jon Sadow, Business Development – Google Consumer Surveys, Google, Inc.
Abstract At what point in the research process does the mantra "more is better" no longer continue to hold with respect to
survey respondents? What would be the impact of a respondent-first survey experience on data quality and
response rates? What overall value could a primary research ecosystem could provide?
Since early 2012, Google Consumer Surveys has endeavored to build an online research platform that places the
respondent experience above all else. In the process, we've created the world's largest online research sample,
leveraging technology and an innovative data collection process to maximize speed and automation. By
emphasizing a "user-first" experience, Google Consumer Surveys has made great strides in improving the quality of
online research and increasing survey engagement amongst everyday consumers.
Presentation Title Results from Smartphone Survey Experiments
Presenter Tom Wells, Ph.D., Research Manager, The Nielsen Company
Co-Author Michael W. Link, Ph.D., SVP, Chief Methodologist, The Nielsen Company
Abstract The dramatic rise of smartphones has very profound implications for survey research. Namely, can smartphones
become a viable “second screen” for self-administered surveys? Very little experimental research has been
conducted on smartphone surveys. One exception is the work by Peytchev and Hill (2010), who embedded several
experiments within a series of mobile web surveys.
In this study, we build on and extend Peytchev and Hill’s work in several ways: 1) by administering a mobile app
survey to a large, national sample of smartphone users, 2) by including an additional set of survey experiments,
and 3) by conducting a parallel set of online survey experiments.
The study is based on approximately 2,000 online panelists who were also identified as smartphone users. Survey
respondents were randomly assigned to the mobile app or online mode of the survey, and within mode, randomly
assigned to one of two versions of the survey (thus allowing for a series of paired comparisons). Within the survey,
we embedded several survey experiments that had been previously tested in other modes (mail, online, mobile
web). We examine how various question types affect responses to the mobile survey and whether experimental
findings from other modes carry over to the mobile survey mode.
We were able to replicate previous experimental findings with frequency scales and the size of open-ened text
boxes; however, we were not able to replicate previous findings regarding primacy effects nor the presentation of
a half-open “Other” category. Among other things, the results suggest that open-ended items in a smartphone
survey may not be so burdensome.
By conducting this research, we gained a better understanding of smartphone survey question design. As
smartphone ownership continues to grow, it is important for survey researchers to continue to conduct empirical
research on what does and doesn’t work with smartphone surveys.

PANEL 2 SURVEY RESEARCH TRENDS AND TECHNIQUES
Chair Bob Davis, Davis Research
Presentation Title Panel Conditioning in Online Survey Panels: Problems of Engagement
Presenter
Lonna Rae Atkeson, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for the Study of Voting,
Elections and Democracy, University of New Mexico
Co-Author Alex N. Adams, University of New Mexico; Jeffrey A. Karp, Australian National University
Abstract There are many questions related to the reliability and validity of data collected through online survey panels. Our
paper considers the influence of panel conditioning on political attitudes. We investigate the relationship between
total survey completes with one online panel and measures of political attitudes, survey duration, political
sophistication and non-differentiation using the ANES 2010-12 Evaluations of Government and Social Study. We
find evidence of panel conditioning in the form of decreased survey duration and increased nondifferentiation.
Presentation Title How Telephone Interviewers’ Responsiveness Impacts Their Success
Presenter Jessica Broome, Jessica Broome Research
Abstract Telephone survey interviewers vary widely in their success at persuading potential respondents to participate. This
persuasive act can be viewed in two stages: first, the initial impression the interviewer makes on potential
respondents; and, assuming there is success in this stage, the interviewer’s ability to respond appropriately to
concerns expressed by potential respondents.
I report results from a study currently underway that looks at both of these stages in a corpus of audio-recorded
telephone survey introductions. Initial impressions of telephone interviewers are assessed by asking web survey
respondents to listen to the initial seconds of an interviewer’s recorded introduction (typically “Hello, this is ____
and I’m calling from [INSTITUTION] about our study on ____.”) and to rate the interviewer on several personal and
vocal characteristics, including “professional,” “competent,” “confident,” “enthusiastic,” “friendly,” “pleasant to
listen to,” “natural-sounding,” and “scripted.” A study by van der Vaart, Ongena, Hoogendoorn and Dijkstra (2005)
indicates that a competent, confident approach may be more effective than a friendly one. At the same time,
there is some evidence indicating that interviewers with voices judged as “pleasant” are more successful than
those with less pleasant-sounding voices.
Interviewers’ responsiveness to concerns expressed by sample members will be assessed through analysis of the
interaction in complete survey introductions (as opposed to the initial seconds). These introductions have been
transcribed and codes assigned indicating the presence of a specific concern (for example, “I don't have time.”)
and the interviewer’s response to the concern (for example, “We can call you back at a more convenient time.”).
The hypothesis is that interviewers who offer relevant responses to concerns expressed by sample members will
be more successful. Preliminary results from this ongoing research will be discussed, as well as directions for
future research and practical implications for survey operations.

PANEL 2 SURVEY RESEARCH TRENDS AND TECHNIQUES, continued
Chair Bob Davis, Davis Research
Presentation Title Practical Application of Discrete Choice Methodology in Public Opinion Research
Presenter Paul Johnson, Director, Analytics, SSI
Abstract Discrete Choice Methodology has been around for a few decades, and is still widely used in the business world.
However, public opinion research can also benefit from these trade-off techniques. While the current industry
method of Likert scales may be able to identify desirable elements of a policy, they are unable to determine which
aspects of the policy will promote action. These scales are also notoriously susceptible to scale effect. We give an
example of how discrete choice methodology can be applied in the health care sector. A Choice Based Conjoint is
used to model how the health care sector might react to different pressures the government uses to move people
to purchase health insurance. A Max-Diff technique is used to help find the magnitude of each of the advantages
of owning health care to help direct advertising and education.
The focus of this presentation is not on the accuracy of the actual data because it is a sample size of only 400
people an opt-in online panel. Rather the focus is on how to use the techniques and adapt them to another
problem. These methods could be applied to any governmental program that might influence a public sector
market to identify which aspects of legislation are worth the cost to individuals who see the direct costs in the
market
Presentation Title Big Data 101 for Public Opinion Research
Presenter Todd Lipcon, Software Engineer, Cloudera
Abstract Over the last several years, organizations in both the public and private sector have started to take advantage of
big data technology. Big data refers to the use of new types of data sources and analyses, often integrating very
large data sets full of messy and hard-to-analyze information including web pages, social network comments, and
blog posts. Organizations in both the private and public sector have found that, despite these sources being harder
to analyze using traditional methods, these datasets can yield valuable new insights about their customers' habits,
preferences, and demographics.
Given that big data technology is relatively new, the majority of public opinion polling does not yet integrate such
techniques. In this talk, we will discuss the ways in which some pollsters have begun to augment existing methods
with "big data" style analysis, and suggest several new ways in which big data might affect public opinion research
in the coming decade.

PANEL 3 WESTERN STATES AND THE 2012 ELECTION
Time/Location Friday, 8:30 am – 10:00 am, Franciscan Room
Chair Floyd Ciruli, Ciruli Associates
Panel Description The 2012 Western States roundtable will present the western states’ political contests in the 2012 election and the
region’s impact on national politics. A panel on the West has the benefit of a presidential election dominated by a
targeted battleground strategy, a host of western toss-up states and a series of close senate races, many with a
surfeit of polling data.
Although California, our largest western state, was not a presidential battleground, its politics was significantly
affected by reforms in its electoral rules and several ballot issues, which address fundamental state fiscal policy
and political rules.
Presentation Title Colorado – A Preeminent Toss-Up State
Presenter Floyd Ciruli, Founder, Ciruli Associates
Presentation Title A Review of California’s 2012 Ballot Initiatives and Reasons for Their Passage or Failure
Presenter Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll, Field Research Corporation
Presentation Title Hits and Misses in 2012 Election Polling
Presenter Paul J. Lavrakas, Independent Consultant
Presentation Title California’s Latest Electoral Reforms – More Competition?
Presenter Eric McGhee, Policy Fellow, Public Policy Institute of California
Presentation Title Comparing and Contrasting the 2012 Battleground States
Presenter Anthony Salvanto, Elections Director, CBS News

PANEL 4 POLLING IS HARD – SENSITIVE TOPICS, HARD TO REACH POPULATIONS, AND DIFFICULT ISSUES
Time/Location Friday, 10:45 am – 12:15 pm, Franciscan Room
Chair Sarah Cho, Kaiser Family Foundation
Presentation Title Measuring Religious Behavior in the Muslim World
Presenter
Philip S. Brenner, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology and Senior Research Fellow, Center for
Survey Research, University of Massachusetts Boston
Abstract Survey findings suggest that predominantly Muslim countries are among the most religious in the world and
validate commonly held, but overly simplistic, perceptions of Muslims as extremely and uniformly religious.
Existing research has demonstrated that survey estimates can give a distorted view of the reality of levels of
religious practice; however, it has thus far focused exclusively on traditionally Christian, advanced Western
democracies. To address this oversight, the veracity of self-reported religious practice in the Muslim world is
tested using Pakistan, the Palestinian Territories, and Turkey as cases for study. Comparing estimates of prayer
from conventional surveys with those from time diaries, marginal rates of overreporting are estimated for each
country by sex. Findings suggest that overreporting of prayer occurs in each country considered, although more
consistently for women than men.
Presentation Title Too Many Immigrants? Examining Alternative Forms of Immigrant Population Innumeracy
Presenter Daniel Herda, University of California – Davis
Abstract The tendency to over-estimate immigrant population sizes has garnered considerable scholarly attention for its
potential link to anti-immigrant policy support. However, this existing innumeracy research has neglected other
forms of ignorance, namely under-estimation and non-response. Using the 2002 European Social Survey, the
current study examines the full scope of innumeracy for the first time. Results indicate that under-estimation and
non-response occur commonly across 21 countries and that over-estimation is far from ubiquitous. Non-
responders in particular are found to represent a distinct innumeracy form associated with low cognitive
availability and high negative affect. Multilevel models indicate that under-estimation associates with greater
opposition to anti-immigrant policy, while over-estimation and non-response associate with greater support.
Much of these associations are explained by affective factors. However, significant under- and over-estimation
coefficients remain net of controls suggesting that innumeracy may be more important than initially thought.
Overall, the results highlight the multifaceted character of innumeracy.

PANEL 4
POLLING IS HARD – SENSITIVE TOPICS, HARD TO REACH POPULATIONS, AND DIFFICULT ISSUES,
continued
Time/Location Friday, 10:45 am – 12:15 pm, Franciscan Room
Chair Sarah Cho, Kaiser Family Foundation
Presentation Title
Respondents’ Race, Sex, and Language Predict Item Nonresponse on Sexual Identity and Behavior
Questions: Evidence From Three Cycles of the California Health Interview Survey
Presenter
Matt Jans, Ph.D., Data Quality and Survey Methodology Manager, California Health Interview Survey,
UCLA Center for Health Policy Research
Coauthors David Grant, Ph.D., Annie Lee
Abstract Sexual orientation and sexual behavior are sensitive survey questions that can produce item nonresponse when
respondents either feel uncomfortable disclosing their true identities and practices, or when they do not have a
shared understanding of the concepts and terminology used by the researcher to ask sexual orientation and
behavior questions. Cultural expectations of what constitutes appropriate topics of conversation with strangers
can also contribute to the propensity to not report on topics dealing with sexual identity. Using California Health
Interview Survey (CHIS) data from 2005-2010 we explore differences in item nonresponse rates to sexual behavior
and sexual identity questions asked in several languages. CHIS interviews in English, Spanish, Chinese (Mandarin
and Cantonese), Vietnamese, and Korean, and also asks respondents for detailed Hispanic/Latino and Asian
identity classification. This provides relatively detailed measures with which we can explore the relationship
between language and ethnicity (i.e., culture) in producing nonresponse on sensitive questions. We find that item
nonresponse rates vary across languages and ethnicities, as well as by sex within language/ethnicity groups. This
suggests an interaction between language, ethnicity, and sex/gender in the production of item nonresponse. This
exploratory research holds promise for better understanding how to measure sensitive topics in various cultures.
Presentation Title Social Desirability Bias in Survey Research on Marriage for Same Sex Couples
Presenter Amy Simon, Partner, Goodwin Simon Strategic Research
Abstract In discussions and analysis of survey research on lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues, there has been a
debate about whether there is a "Bradley effect" or social desirability bias at work. This presentation will conclude
that, in practice, there is a social desirability bias, as survey results often do not match election results. We will
discuss the dynamics that may be at play and different methodological approaches for accounting for this bias in
order to have a more accurate measure of actual views.
This presentation will be informed by research conducted by Goodwin Simon Strategic Research for the recent
successful ballot measure campaigns to allow marriage for same-sex couples in Maine and Washington, as well as
extensive research on other LGBT-related issues.

PANEL 5
A REVIEW OF THE 2012 ELECTIONS, INCLUDING A FOCUS ON NEW STUDIES AND CUTTING-EDGE
METHODS IN PUBLIC OPINION AND VOTING RESEARCH
Time/Location Friday, 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm, Franciscan Room
Chair Anthony Salvanto, CBS News
Presentation Title The Impact of the Presidential Debates on Undecided and Persuadable Voters in the 2012 Election
Presenter Curtiss Cobb, Director of Survey Methodology, GfK
Abstract While politicians and pundits heralded Gov. Mitt Romney’s performance in the first debate of the 2012
presidential campaign as a game-changer, and included the subsequent narrowing of support between the
candidates in public opinion polls as evidence, political scientists were warning that it was all likely hype. Past
research on debates have found little in the way of direct effects on candidate support and instead lead to partisan
reinforcement (Hyllygus & Simon 2003; Kenski & Jamieson 2006). Moreover, debate “effects” are in part mediated
through the post-debate political conversation (Brubaker & Hanson 2009).
This two-wave study tracks the duration of opinions from the 2012 presidential debates and how subsequent post-
debate conversations altered perceptions over time for undecided and persuadable voters’. Additionally, we will
examine how predictive initial debate performance perceptions are to vote choice. Using GfK’s probability based
Internet panel, KnowledgePanel®, a group of undecided and persuadable voters were identified prior to each
presidential debate and asked to complete a post-debate questionnaire in the hour immediately following the
debate. Respondents were asked about their impressions of the debate performance of each candidate and for
whom they planned to vote and why. Respondents were then re-interviewed on Election Day, along with decided
voters and undecided voters who failed to watch the debates. They were asked again about their impressions of
the candidates’ debate performances and who they voted for and why, along with questions about media
consumption, political interest and political knowledge. Differences between the three groups are being analyzed.
Presentation Title How Does the Messenger Influence the Impact of Newspaper Endorsements?
Presenter Kyle Dropp, Stanford University
Coauthor Christopher Warshaw, Assistant Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract Newspapers commonly endorse candidates in both primary and general elections. Do newspaper endorsements
influence citizens' votes? We conduct a survey experiment with 5,500 respondents matching citizens to the largest
newspaper in their Congressional district. We show respondents two ideologically distinct general election
candidates and two ideologically similar primary candidates. We randomly vary which candidate gets an
endorsement from the local newspaper. We find that the level of ideological congruence between citizens and
newspapers affects the impact of the endorsement. Citizens reward endorsed candidates when they perceive that
the newspaper is ideologically similar to their preferences but punish endorsed candidates when they perceive
that a newspaper is ideologically distal. These findings suggest that newspapers' behavioral norm of endorsing
candidates in both primary and general election contests can harm their preferred candidates. At a broader level,
this study advances our understanding of the impact of media endorsements, which is particularly important as
the media becomes increasingly partisan.

PANEL 5
A REVIEW OF THE 2012 ELECTIONS, INCLUDING A FOCUS ON NEW STUDIES AND CUTTING-EDGE
METHODS IN PUBLIC OPINION AND VOTING RESEARCH, continued
Time/Location Friday, 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm, Franciscan Room
Chair Anthony Salvanto, CBS News
Presentation Title Myths of the 2012 Campaign
Presenters
Samantha Luks, Ph.D., Senior Vice President of Scientific Research, YouGov
Doug Rivers, Ph.D., Chief Innovations Officer, YouGov
Abstract Most polls during the 2012 election showed substantial swings during the campaign as well as fairly large effects
due to likely voter screens. However, there is substantial evidence that the measured swings were mostly effects
of sample composition, not actual preference shifts among voters. Further, survey-based registration and likely
voter swings have low reliability. We show how panel-based estimates using purposive selection overcome these
methodological difficulties.
Presentation Title Google Consumer Surveys 2012 Election Recap
Presenter Paul McDonald, Project Lead/Product Manager, Google Consumer Surveys
Abstract Less than eight months after the launch of Google Consumer Surveys, our team decided to take on the challenge
of capturing near real-time data throughout the 2012 election season. From instant debate reactions, to trending
insights on key issues, to experimenting with predictive polling, we put our innovative online research platform to
the test. The results? A major step forward for online research, and a resounding affirmation of the value it can
provide in the political arena.

POSTER SESSION ABSTRACTS
POSTER SESSION
Time/Location Friday, 10:15 am – 10:45 am, Windsor Room
Poster Title Predicting Regional Self-Identification from Spatial Network Models
Presenter Zack Almquist, Doctoral Candidate, Department of Sociology, University of California – Irvine
Abstract Social scientists characterize “social life” as a hierarchy of environments, from the micro level of an individual's
knowledge and perceptions to the macro level of large-scale social networks. In accordance with this typology,
individuals are typically thought to reside in micro- and macro-level structures, composed of multifaceted relations
(e.g., acquaintanceship, friendship, and kinship). This work attempts to analyze the effects of social structure on
micro outcomes through the case of regional identification. Self-identification occurs in many different domains,
one of which is regional, i.e., the identification of oneself with a locationally-associated group (e.g., a “New Yorker”
or “Parisian”). Here, it is posited that regional self-identification results from an influence process based on the
location of an individual's alters, such that one tends to identify with regions in which many of his or her alters
reside.
Poster Title
Moving the California Employment Development Department’s Agricultural Wage Surveys to Online
Mode
Presenter Danell Brewster, Research Program Specialist, California State Employment Development Department
Abstract Historically, the Agricultural Wage Surveys conducted by California’s Employment Development Department (EDD)
have received very low participation. We recommended modifying the survey methodology from a single mailing
of a paper survey to an online mode with multiple mailed contacts. Following the methodological change, the
response rate for the EDD’s General Vineyard Worker Wage Survey more than doubled, from 17 percent in 2011
to 38 percent in 2012.
Poster Title Smoke and Mirrors: Who are Medical Marijuana Users in California?
Presenter Jessica Hayes, Research Associate, Public Health Institute’s Survey Research Group
Authors Marta Induni, Suzanne Ryan-Ibarra, Danielle Ewing
Abstract Background: The United States Drug Enforcement Agency classifies marijuana as an illegal substance, yet in16
states, marijuana is legal for medicinal use. Research has shown that marijuana is beneficial for improving quality
of life for those with serious medical conditions such as chronic pain, arthritis, and cancer. In 1996, California
legalized the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes, but population-based data describing medical marijuana
users in the state does not exist. Objectives: To examine the demographic and socioeconomic differences between
users and non-users of medical marijuana in California. Methods: We will be using preliminary data from the
California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012, an annual statewide telephone survey that collects
health data from a representative adult sample. Results: Five percent of respondents indicated they ever used
medical marijuana (users n=43, non-users n=899, refused n=4), and 37 of those who have used indicated that it
helped their serious medical condition. Conclusion: As marijuana becomes a more accepted way to alleviate or
treat serious medical conditions, the legal debate continues between state and federal medical marijuana policy.
The onus is on researchers and clinicians to better understand users of medical marijuana and the potential
benefits and risks of use.

POSTER SESSION ABSTRACTS
POSTER SESSION
Time/Location Friday, 10:15 am – 10:45 am, Windsor Room
Poster Title Empathy and Immigration Policy Preferences: The Interactive Pathway for Permissive Change
Presenter
Chris Haynes, Visiting Fellow, Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California – San
Diego
Abstract Social psychology research has shown that priming both emotion-giving and perspective-taking empathy can
increase positive attitudes towards other groups. Yet, political scientists have yet to explore the attitudinal
implications of this emotional construct in a political context. However, in a previous pilot study of students, I find
evidence that empathy can have a permissive effect on people’s immigration policy preferences. Here, I build on
these insights by presenting the results of two experiments, one laboratory and one online M-Turk, which evaluate
the following expectations: First, I argue that while empathy is multidimensional, empathic effects on immigration
policy preferences depend largely on the presence of both emotion-giving and perspective-taking empathy.
Second, I assert that these effects will be moderated by the permissive effects of dispositional empathy. In the first
laboratory study of temp agency supplied participants from California, I find that dispositional empathy moderates
permissive change as expected. In the second national M-Turk study, I find support for my interactive
understanding of empathy in addition to dispositional empathy as a moderator. I then discuss the implications of
these findings.

PRESENTER BIOGRAPHIES
Zach Almquist (almquist@uci.edu) is a doctoral candidate in Sociology at the University of California, Irvine. Zach has M.A.
degrees in Sociology and Demography from UCI, a M.S. in Statistics from Northwestern University, and a B.S. in Mathematics
from the University of Oregon. Currently, Zach is a Graduate Student Researcher for Professor Carter T. Butts, a member of the
Networks, Computation, and Social Dynamics Lab, and a Graduate Student Fellow in the Center for Networks and Relational
Analysis. His research lies at the intersection of sociology, social network analysis, and demography and has been published (or
is forthcoming) in such journals as Sociological Methodology, the Journal of Statistical Software, Demographic Research, and
Social Networks. His research is centered in two primary areas: the first is social network analysis, where his work includes
research on the effects of geography and time on social processes (and large-scale social structure) and the measurement and
sampling of social networks; the second is the field of demography, where he looks to integrate spatial analysis and social
network analysis with classic and formal demographic theory. Underlying both of these themes is a strong interest in developing
statistical techniques for application to social science problems, especially social network analysis and demography.
Dr. Lonna Rae Atkeson (atkeson@unm.edu) is Professor of Political Science and Regents' Lecturer at the University of New
Mexico where she also directs the Center for the Study of Voting, Elections and Democracy. An expert on public opinion,
elections, and election procedures, she has written scores of articles and books on political behavior, public opinion, survey
methodology and election administration. She holds a B.A. in political science from the University of California, Riverside and a
Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Colorado Boulder.
Reg Baker (reg.baker@marketstrategies.com) see page 6 for bio.
Philip Brenner (Philip.brenner@umb.edu) received a Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and was a
postdoctoral research fellow in the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. His research interests broadly include
survey methodology, quantitative methods and statistics, social psychology, and religion, and more specifically include
measurement error, self and identity, secularization and secularism, and cross-national comparative research on religious
behavior and belief. His current work is located at the intersection of a number of these topics, examining the social sources
of measurement error in survey self-reports of normative behaviors, including religious, political, health-related, and pro-
environmental (“green”) behaviors.
Danell Brewster (Danell.Brewster@edd.ca.gov) is a Research Program Specialist with the California State Employment
Development Department (EDD), where she conducts internal and external surveys, participatory program evaluation, and
sampling design. She holds a Master of Public Policy and Administration degree, a post graduate Certificate in Collaborative
Governance, and a B.A. in Anthropology from CSU, Sacramento. Danell’s thesis research focused on balancing conflicting policy
goals in inclusionary housing programs.
Jessica Broome (jessica@jessicabroomeresearch.com) received her Ph.D. in Survey Methodology from the University of
Michigan in 2012, where her dissertation focused on perceptions of telephone survey interviewers. Since escaping from
academia, she has worked as an independent consultant focusing on survey design and analysis for clients in a wide range of
sectors, including pharmaceutical, food, architecture, media, and non-profit.
Floyd Ciruli (fciruli@aol.com) founded Ciruli Associates, a research and consulting firm specializing in public policy, community
and cultural affairs and strategic planning, in 1985. Clients include Colorado corporations, local government, and business and
civic associations. Ciruli is a pollster and political analyst for 9-KUSA TV, KOA Radio and The Denver Post. He has analyzed
election results with news teams since the 1980s. Most recently, he has appeared on NBC Nightly News, Fox News-Neil Cavuto,
PBS News Hour, CNN with John King, National Public Radio and the BBC. He hosts a blog at www.fciruli.blogspot.com for
political news, polls and trends on the web. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. and a
bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. Ciruli is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion
Research (AAPOR). He is a Past President of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR. Ciruli is a board member of the Social Science
Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Chairman of the Georgetown Law
Alumni Board. He is a native of Pueblo, Colorado.

Curtiss Cobb (curtiss.cobb@gfk.com) is a director of survey methodology at GfK. His methods research focuses on questionnaire
design, sampling and weighting, and panel dynamics. His other research examines political partisanship and polarization trends
from the New Deal through today. He holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Stanford University. Prior to joining GfK, he worked with a
number of government and research organizations, including the U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Defense, National Science
Foundation and the American Bar Foundation.
Bob Davis (bob@davisresearch.com) is the second generation owner of Davis Research (www.davisresearch.com), a mid-sized
market research firm specializing in data collection and data processing for both the public and private industry. Bob's first job
in research came when he was 3 years old working for Davis Research taping quarters to outgoing mail surveys. In addition to
the challenges of running the day to day operations of a business, he is in charge of Davis Research's programming and data
processing departments. Bob has a particular research interest in methodology strategy and effective data delivery,
visualization, and presentation. When Bob used to have free time he enjoyed traveling, hiking, cooking, and eating. Now he
spends most of his time juggling demands from his 6 year old son Zach and his 4 year old twins Riley and Jared. Bob's leadership
experience includes being the current president of PAPOR and the much harder job of being his older son's Cub Scout den
leader for 18 first grade scouts. He holds a B.S. in Computer Science from UCSD and Masters in Business Administration from
the Anderson School of UCLA.
Dr. Jacob Depue (JDepue@pdastats.com) is an evaluator for Professional Data Analysts Inc. in Minneapolis MN, where he
specializes in the evaluation of health media campaigns. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota’s School of
Journalism and Mass Communication in June 2012. Jacob’s research interests are in health communication, and he has worked
as an evaluator for a number of tobacco cessation media campaigns, including campaigns run by ClearWay Minnesota, the
Connecticut Department of Public Health, and the Florida Department of Health. Jacob’s research has appeared in journals such
as Communication Research and Annals of Behavioral Medicine.
Mark DiCamillo (markd@field.com) is Senior Vice President of Field Research Corporation and Director of The Field Poll, which
has operated since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan, media-sponsored survey of California public opinion. Mark DiCamillo
joined Field in 1978 and over the years has directed hundreds of public policy research studies in California for federal, state and
local government agencies, academic institutions, foundations, not-for-profit organizations and others. He has specific
professional interests and expertise in the areas of questionnaire development, sampling, surveying ethnically diverse
populations, and analyzing and interpreting public policy research findings in California. As Director of The Field Poll, he directs
regularly scheduled surveys of California voters for the poll’s media clients. He is a recognized authority on opinion trends in
California and is a frequent speaker on voter opinions and behavior in public forums. A list of The Field Poll’s most press releases
and publications authored by Mr. DiCamillo can be found at www.field.com/fieldpollonline. He is a cum laude graduate of
Harvard and holds an M.B.A. from Cornell’s Johnson School of Business.
Kyle Dropp (dropp@stanford.edu) is a Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at Stanford University with a focus in American
Politics and Quantitative Methods. He studies how elites influence citizens through strategic rhetoric and the manipulation of
electoral institutions. For his dissertation, he engaged three prominent means of elite influence—televised advertising, political
endorsements and election administration policies—that shape voters' attitudes and behavior. Examples of Kyle's work can be
found in The Journal of Politics, The New York Times and The Christian Science Monitor.
Paul Harwood, Ph.D. (pharwood@fb.com) (University of Maryland-College Park) is a User Sentiment Researcher at Facebook.
He specializes in survey instrument design. Prior to Facebook, Harwood was an Associate Professor at the University of North
Florida and the Director of the university’s Public Opinion Research Lab. Paul is a member of the AAPOR’s Emerging
Technologies Task Force.

Jessica Hayes (Jhayes@surveyresearchgroup.org) is a Research Associate with the Public Health Institute’s Survey Research
Group (SRG). Ms. Hayes received her Master’s in Sociology from California State University, Sacramento while working as a
Research Analyst for their Institute for Social Research. Ms. Hayes assists SRG in the management and implementation of the
daily operations of the call center, including sample management, interviewer training, and quality control for data collection.
Her current projects include managing the data collection for a cohort study of women through the 3 Generation Project, a
prospective study examining potential environmental causes of breast cancer, and serving as the survey coordinator for
California’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), a health behavior survey administrated in classrooms in schools around the
state.
Chris Haynes (chrishaynes77@gmail.com) is the current CCIS Pre-doc Fellow and a Ph.D. candidate in political science from the
University of California Riverside. His NSF-funded dissertation examines the effects of empathy in the context of immigration
policy preferences. More broadly, his research includes a book manuscript on the framing effects on public opinion on
immigration, working papers on Asian-American co-ethnic linked fate, the implications of ethnic media consumption on the
political knowledge of Latinos, Asian-Americans, and African-Americans, and work with the second iteration of the National
Asian American Survey.
Daniel Herda (deherda@ucdavis.edu) is a Ph.D. Candidate in the department of sociology at the University of California - Davis.
His scholarly interests include race and ethnic relations, immigration, quantitative methods and public opinion. His research
focuses on the social psychological aspects of interracial relations, including racial prejudice, interracial friendship and
discrimination experiences. His work has been published in Public Opinion Quarterly, Social Forces and Social Science Research.
He is currently on the job market and finalizing his dissertation, which examines the discrimination experiences of young
Americans.
Paul Hitlin (PHitlin@Journalism.org) see page 6 for bio.
Matt Jans, Ph.D. (mjans@ucla.edu) is the methodologist for the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS). He is the lead
developer of CHIS's data quality plan, coordinates CHIS's Survey Methodology and Sample Design Technical Advisory
Committee, and oversees the survey design and methodology section of the CHIS Web site. Jans is charged with monitoring and
exploring trends in survey methodology and research in order to maintain CHIS's status as a high-quality state health survey. In
addition to methodological oversight of the survey, Jans is responsible for testing and implementing new survey methodologies,
weighting techniques, and other tools and measures to improve the overall data quality of CHIS. Before joining CHPR and CHIS,
Jans was a social science analyst in the Statistical Research Division and Center for Survey Measurement at the U.S. Census
Bureau headquarters in Suitland, MD. Jans received his Ph.D. from the Program in Survey Methodology at the University of
Michigan. He also earned Master's degrees from University of Massachusetts, Boston as well as Boston College's Lynch School of
Education. His bachelor degree in Psychology was earned Magna Cum Laude from Central Michigan University.
Paul Johnson (Edward.Johnson@SurveySampling.com) is a Director of Analytics at SSI. Paul specializes in online sampling design
and advanced analytic methods. Paul’s research based approach to identifying and recommending solutions positions him well
to investigate panelist behavior; oversee data processing efforts; improve online data integrity and provide advanced analytic
support to clients. Paul is also actively pursuing a research agenda on survey research methods and applications of conjoint
methodology. His research on research efforts have been featured regularly at ESOMAR, AAPOR, CASRO and Sawtooth events.
Paul holds an M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Actuarial Science from Brigham Young University. He joined SSI in 2006.
Paul J. Lavrakas, Ph.D. (pjlavrakas@hughes.net) is a research psychologist, and currently is serving as a methodological research
consultant for several organizations. He served as Vice President and chief methodologist for Nielsen Media Research from
2000-2007. He was a Professor of Journalism and Communication Studies at Northwestern University (1978-1996) and Ohio
State University (1996-2000), and was the founding faculty director of the Northwestern University Survey Lab (1982-1996) and
the OSU Center for Survey Research (1996-2000). Among his publications, he has written two editions of a widely read book on
telephone survey methodology; served as lead editor for three books on election polling, the news media, and democracy; has
co-authored four editions of The Voter’s Guide to Election Polls; and is the editor of the Encyclopedia of Survey Research
Methods (Sage, 2008). He has served AAPOR as 1999 Conference Chair, Counselor at Large 2008-2010, and is now serving as
VP/President/Past-President from 2011-2014. He is a current member of MAPOR, NEAAPOR, NYAAPOR, PAPOR, WAPOR, and
the American Statistical Association. He lives most of the year in Flagstaff, AZ.

Todd Lipcon (todd@cloudera.com) is an engineer at Cloudera, where he works on open source big data software including
Apache Hadoop. Prior to Cloudera, Todd worked on web infrastructure at several startups, and researched novel machine
learning methods for generating targeted product recommendations based on past user behavior. Todd received his bachelor's
degree with honors from Brown University.
Sam Luks (sam.luks@yougov.com) is a leading expert in statistical methodology and has nearly 20 years of experience in the
field of survey research. She has expertise in a wide range of topics in public opinion, political behavior, political psychology, and
survey research design. At YouGov, Sam is responsible for sample design and analytics and advises on questionnaire
construction and experimental design. She also directs the annual Cooperative Congressional Election Study, along with multiple
cross-national studies in the areas of political science and health outcomes. Sam previously held a faculty appointment at the
University of Minnesota and a research appointment at UC Data at the University of California at Berkeley. She earned an M.A.
and a Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences from
Northwestern University. She has published articles on elections, race and politics, trust in government, attitudes about
abortion, attitudinal ambivalence, and welfare dynamics. She is also on the editorial boards of Political Analysis and California
Politics and Policy.
Paul McDonald (pmcdonald@google.com) is currently the project lead for Google Consumer Surveys. He has been at Google for
10 years and most recently worked on Gmail where he led product strategy and development. Paul has also worked on Google's
commerce, advertising and cloud computing efforts launching Google Checkout, Google App Engine and several optimization
products for AdWords advertisers.
Eric McGhee (mcghee@ppic.org) is a policy fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. His work focuses on elections,
political participation, political polarization, legislative behavior, redistricting, and surveys and polling. Before joining PPIC as a
policy fellow, he was assistant professor of political science at the University of Oregon. He previously worked at PPIC on the
PPIC Statewide Survey, and he was a Congressional Fellow in 2004 through the American Political Science Association, working
in the office of Rep. Adam Schiff. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley.
Mark Mellman see page 6 for bio.
Doug Rivers is one of the world’s leading experts on survey research and a successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur. He has taught
at Harvard University, Caltech, UCLA, and, most recently, Stanford University, where he is Professor of Political Science and
Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Doug has founded two successful technology companies, Preview Systems and
Knowledge Networks. Preview Systems pioneered the field of digital rights management, conducted a successful IPO in 1999
and was sold in 2001. As CEO of the company he was named Executive of the Year (2000) by Research Business Report and
received the Innovator's Award by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (2001). He is also a CBS News
consultant and has published academic papers in numerous journals including the American Political Science Review, American
Journal of Political Science and the American Economics Review, to name a few. He holds a B.A. from Columbia University and a
Ph.D. from Harvard University.
Jon Sadow (jsadow@google.com) joined the Business Development team for Google Consumer Surveys in February 2012, and
focuses on sharing the power of real time data and insights with customers and partners in the market research space and
beyond. Upon initially arriving at Google in 2010, Jon worked in the Retail vertical of Google's Large Customer Sales group,
helping advertisers develop successful digital marketing strategies. Jon is a graduate of the George Washington University,
where he studied Finance & International Business.
Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D. (salvantoa@cbsnews.com) is the Elections Director for CBS News.

Amy Simon (amys@goodwinsimon.com), a founding partner at Goodwin Simon Strategic Research, a national public opinion
research firm, brings almost 25 years of political experience to her work as a pollster and communications strategist. She
conducts public opinion research on a variety of public policy issues at the federal, state and local level and her clients include
state and local government, non-profits, labor unions, and both political and candidate committees. She has a special expertise
in conducting qualitative and quantitative research on socially controversial and emotionally complex issues, and particularly in
developing effective messaging around socially controversial ballot measure campaigns. Along with her partner Paul Goodwin,
she has helped to pass or defeat statewide ballot measures on late-term abortion, medical marijuana, decriminalizing
marijuana, Death with Dignity, insurance reform, medical malpractice, and, most recently, marriage for same-sex couples in
Maine and Washington. Raised in Massachusetts, Ms. Simon graduated with Honors from the University of Michigan in 1987.
She studied at the Joint Program in Survey Methodology at the University of Maryland.
Tom Wells (Thomas.Wells@nielsen.com) is a Research Manager at Nielsen, where he designs and manages innovative
methodological studies. His current research interests include social network user research, online survey methodology, and
mobile survey experiments. Prior to joining Nielsen, Tom was the Director of the Panel Profile Group at Knowledge Networks
and was responsible for designing and administering KN’s series of profile surveys. Earlier in his career, he conducted
demographic research and taught courses on statistics and survey research methods at Brown University. Tom received his
Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

CONFERENCE SPONSORS
THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS FOR THEIR SUPPORT OF PAPOR!
DIAMOND LEVEL SPONSORS
GOLD LEVEL SPONSORS
SILVER LEVEL SPONSORS

LOCAL EATS AND DRINKS
QUICK EATS NEARBY
Boxed Foods Company
(0.3 mi away)
Organic sandwiches and salads 245 Kearny St
415-981-9376
boxedfoodscompany.com
King of Thai Noodle House
(0.2 mi)
A PAPOR Favorite! Fast and inexpensive, but delicious
Thai noodles, salads, and soups!
184 O’Farrell St 415-677-9991
Loving Hut (0.4 mi) A selection of vegan noodles, salads, and sandwiches
845 Market St
(inside Westfield
Mall)
415-945-3888
lovinghut.us
Macy’s Cellar Food Court
(0.1 mi)
Can’t decide? Check out the Macy’s food court for a
wide variety of options, like Frontera Fresco, Mixed
Greens, and Boudin Bakery.
170 O’Farrell Street
Muracci’s Japanese Curry
& Grill (0.4 mi)
Open only for lunch and early dinner, Muracci’s has
the city’s best Japanese curry and lunch items
307 Kearny St
415-773-1101
muraccis.com
Naan ‘N’ Curry (0.3 mi) Quick, cheap Indian and Pakistani eats 336 O’Farrell St
415-346-1443
naancurry.com
Super Duper (0.5 mi)
Fast food style burgers, fries, and shakes made with
high-quality ingredients
783 Mission St
415-882-1750
superdupersf.com
Zog’s Dogs (0.4 mi) Gourmet hot dogs and sausages 646 Market St
415-391-7071
zogs-dogs.com
IF YOU HAVE MORE TIME (AND MORE $$$)
Colibri Mexican Bistro
(0.2 mi)
Reasonably priced Mexican cuisine – try the tableside
guac!
438 Geary St
415-440-2737
colibrimexicanbistro.com
Fleur De Lys (0.3 mi)
A classic SF restaurant that specializes in French
cuisine. Reservations are required.
777 Sutter St 415-679-7779
Jasper’s Corner Tap
(0.3 mi)
Great gastropub with good food and cocktails
(including some that are offered on tap!)
401 Taylor St
415-775-7979
jasperscornertap.com
Katana-Ya (0.2 mi)
Locals love this Japanese restaurant for reasonably
priced sushi and food. Note, there can be a wait and
they don’t take reservations
430 Geary St 415-771-1280
Millennium (0.4 mi) Very upscale vegetarian and vegan restaurant 580 Geary St
415-345-3900
millenniumrestaurant.com
Scala’s Bistro
Located right in the Sir Francis Drake Hotel, you can’t
get a more convenient location!
Sir Francis Drake
Hotel
415-395-8555
scalasbistro.com
DRINKS AND EVENING ACTIVITIES
Dueling Pianos at Johnny
Foleys (0.2 mi)
Dueling pianos. Enough said. Check website for show
times.
240 O’Farrell St
415-954-0777
duelingpianosatfoleys.com
Starlight Room
Located on the top floor of the Sir Francis Drake, this
bar offers excellent views of the SF skyline and
equally good cocktails
Sir Francis Drake
Hotel
415-395-8595
harrydenton.com
Tonga Room (0.3 mi)
Come here for fun tiki drinks and decor! The interior
even features a swimming pool (unfortunately you
can’t swim in it…)
950 Mason St
(inside The
Fairmont Hotel)
415-772-5278
tongaroom.com
Top of the Mark (0.3 mi)
Want an alternative to the Starlight Room? Check out
Top of the Mark for awesome views and martinis.
1 Nob Hill (inside
the Mark Hopkins)
415-616-6916
topofthemark.com
Tunnel Top (0.1 mi) Good dive bar, with a relaxed atmosphere 601 Bush St 415-722-6620

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