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Electrification reality check

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Combustion Engines Finland

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Electrification reality check

  1. 1. 22/03/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 1 Nils-Olof Nylund, Senior Advisor VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Electrification reality check Engine technology seminar, Vaasa 21.3.2019 Picture: BMW
  2. 2. Content § Some basic statements § Why electrification? § Where are we standing today? § What about tomorrow? § Challenges § Summary § The road ahead might be a little bit bumpy, but the overall direction is obvious! 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 2
  3. 3. There are two major challenges in transport (and we often see them mixed up) § Reducing of greenhouse gas emissions • The carbon intensity of the fuel or the energy carrier is decisive for well-to- wheel CO2 emissions, not vehicle technology • An EV running on coal based electricity will generate more CO2 emissions than a conventional ICE vehicle on fossil fuel • CO2 assessments should be carried out on a well-to-wheel basis, even better LCA basis, not looking at tailpipe CO2 emissions only § Improving air quality • Decisive factor engine/vehicle technology • An EV has zero local emissions
  4. 4. Nothing beats liquid hydrocarbons in energy density Diesel refueling § 70 l/min § ~40 MW Fast charging of E-buses § 650 kW Opbrid/Busbaar V3
  5. 5. Electrification is not that well suited for all modes of transport 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 5Marc Steen/JRC 2014
  6. 6. Why electrification? § In principle, electrification or fuel cell technology could provide zero CO2 mobility § EVs are beneficial for balancing the grid • Balancing loads, eventually vehicle-to-grid (V2G) § Vehicle CO2 regulations are based on tailpipe CO2 emissions § Easy for politicians to consider EVs good for climate and local environment • Laymen may not appreciate all challenges, e.g., electricity CO2 intensity, need for rare metals, challenges in charging etc. § The automotive industry shot itself in the leg with the Dieselgate 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 6
  7. 7. Where are we standing today? 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 7 World passenger car fleet ~ 950 M, -> share of EVs ~ 0.3 % (includes BEV + PHEV) Global EV Outlook 2019 to be released May 29th https://www.iea.org/gevo2018/
  8. 8. Where are we standing today? 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 8
  9. 9. Where are we standing today? 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 9 2.7 % https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/fuel-types-of-new-cars-diesel-23.6-electric-33.1-in-fourth-quarter-of-2018
  10. 10. Finnish passenger car registrations 2018 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 10 https://www.liikennefakta.fi/ymparisto/henkiloautot/vaihtoehtoiset_kayttovoimat • Total number ~ 120,000 • 776 BEVs • 6869 PHEVs • high PHEV number explained by the vehicle tax system • PHEVs could to some extent be considered “greenwash”
  11. 11. Vehicle regulations are driving electrification 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 11 Source: ICCT 2018 N.B: 67 g CO2/km score means that at minimum some 1/3 of the passenger cars sold in 2030 have to be electric
  12. 12. 12 CO2 limits for heavy-duty road vehicles in EU: Confirmed 19.2.2019 • Final decision: -30 % reduction by 2030 • Baseline still not defined https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/truck-makers-react-to-final- co2-deal-setting-first-ever-eu-standards-for-he
  13. 13. 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 13 https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2018/11/an-electrifying-range-of-models.html Price parity ICE/EV by 2025?
  14. 14. Norway aims to take the lead on the sea and in the air as well 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 14 https://electrek.co/2018/02/03/all-electric-ferry-cuts-emission-cost/ http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180814-norways-plan-for-a-fleet-of- electric-planes
  15. 15. Finnish EV goals for 2030 § 2016 Energy and Climate Strategy: • 250,000 § 2018 ”ILMO” working group by Ministry of Transport and Communications: • 670,000 § 2019 energy strategy of the Social Democratic Party • 750,000 § Challenge: • Annual sales of cars ~ 120,000 units • Reaching 750,000 EVs would mean on an average 68,000 EVs annually over the next 11 years • Definitely not doable! 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 15
  16. 16. Main challenges for EVs § Current challenges, e.g.: • High cost of vehicles • Limited range of BEVs • Insufficient public recharging network § Future challenges, e.g.: • Securing sufficiency of low-carbon electricity • Use of materials, including selected rare metals • Sufficiency of local electricity networks 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 16
  17. 17. Example of vehicle pricing 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 17 Petrol BEV Price without tax https://www.volkswagen.fi/fi/auton-ostaminen/hinnastot-ja-esitteet.html
  18. 18. Cost of CO2 reductions – projection 2030 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 18 https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Publications/Integrated-Fuels-and-Vehicles-Roadmap-2030.html N.B: • Electrification of commercial vehicles more cost effective than for passenger cars (up to 700 €/t CO2 for cars) • City buses a real sweet spot for electrification
  19. 19. EVs are more energy and CO2 intensive to build than conventional vehicles 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 19 H. Pengg/Audi 2018 You need to drive an EV some 50,000...100,000 km on renewable electricity to nullify the added CO2 emission from production of the vehicle Red: emissions related to manufacturing and recycling (for a 200,000 km service life) Green: end-use (renewable) Grey: end-use (fossil)
  20. 20. Focus on cobalt 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 20https://news.bloombergenvironment.com/environment-and-energy/electric-car -revolution-could-stall-on-cobalt-shortage
  21. 21. Impacts on the grid Total electricity consumption § If all current Finnish passenger cars were EVs, they would add some 9 TWh/a or some 10 % to the consumption of electricity • Assumptions 2,6 M cars, 17,000 km/car/a, 0.2 kWh/km • Not a very big problem? Peak in power § If 10 % of the 2.6 M EVs (260,000 cars) would be charging simultaneously at 10 kW, this would mean a power peak of 2.6 GW! • When the number of EVs grows substantially, smart charging is a must! 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 21
  22. 22. Summary § Electrification of road vehicles will most probably progress rapidly between 2020 and 2030 § Drivers include policy (EU, national and local governments) and increasingly stringent binding vehicle CO2 regulations (tailpipe) § The higher the degree of utilization, the better is the profitability of EVs • passenger cars worst case, but debated the most § Challenges in building up sufficient battery manufacturing capacity and adequate public recharging networks may hamper progress § The total environmental impact of EVs (LCA level) is often not fully understood § Sophisticated ICEs operating on renewable fuels can have less overall environmental impacts than EVs § EVs can be a blessing or a curse for electric networks 3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 22

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