Combustion Engines Finland

1. 22/03/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 1
Nils-Olof Nylund, Senior Advisor
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Electrification
reality check
Engine technology seminar,
Vaasa 21.3.2019
Picture: BMW

2. Content
§ Some basic statements
§ Why electrification?
§ Where are we standing today?
§ What about tomorrow?
§ Challenges
§ Summary
§ The road ahead might be a little bit bumpy,
but the overall direction is obvious!
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 2

3. There are two major challenges in transport
(and we often see them mixed up)
§ Reducing of greenhouse gas emissions
• The carbon intensity of the fuel or the energy carrier is decisive for well-to-
wheel CO2 emissions, not vehicle technology
• An EV running on coal based electricity will generate more CO2 emissions
than a conventional ICE vehicle on fossil fuel
• CO2 assessments should be carried out on a well-to-wheel basis, even
better LCA basis, not looking at tailpipe CO2 emissions only
§ Improving air quality
• Decisive factor engine/vehicle technology
• An EV has zero local emissions

4. Nothing beats liquid hydrocarbons
in energy density
Diesel refueling
§ 70 l/min
§ ~40 MW
Fast charging of E-buses
§ 650 kW
Opbrid/Busbaar V3

5. Electrification is not that well suited for
all modes of transport
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 5Marc Steen/JRC 2014

6. Why electrification?
§ In principle, electrification or fuel cell technology could provide
zero CO2 mobility
§ EVs are beneficial for balancing the grid
• Balancing loads, eventually vehicle-to-grid (V2G)
§ Vehicle CO2 regulations are based on tailpipe CO2 emissions
§ Easy for politicians to consider EVs good for climate and local
environment
• Laymen may not appreciate all challenges, e.g., electricity
CO2 intensity, need for rare metals, challenges in charging etc.
§ The automotive industry shot itself in the leg with the Dieselgate
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 6

7. Where are we standing today?
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 7
World passenger car fleet ~ 950 M, -> share of EVs ~ 0.3 % (includes BEV + PHEV)
Global EV Outlook 2019
to be released May 29th
https://www.iea.org/gevo2018/

8. Where are we standing today?
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 8

9. Where are we standing today?
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 9
2.7 %
https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/fuel-types-of-new-cars-diesel-23.6-electric-33.1-in-fourth-quarter-of-2018

10. Finnish passenger car registrations 2018
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 10
https://www.liikennefakta.fi/ymparisto/henkiloautot/vaihtoehtoiset_kayttovoimat
• Total number ~ 120,000
• 776 BEVs
• 6869 PHEVs
• high PHEV number explained by the
vehicle tax system
• PHEVs could to some extent be considered
“greenwash”

11. Vehicle regulations are driving
electrification
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 11
Source: ICCT 2018
N.B:
67 g CO2/km score means
that at minimum some 1/3 of
the passenger cars sold
in 2030 have to be electric

12. 12
CO2 limits for heavy-duty road vehicles in EU:
Confirmed 19.2.2019
• Final decision: -30 % reduction by 2030
• Baseline still not defined
https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/truck-makers-react-to-final-
co2-deal-setting-first-ever-eu-standards-for-he

13. 22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 13
https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2018/11/an-electrifying-range-of-models.html
Price parity ICE/EV by 2025?

14. Norway aims to take the lead on the sea
and in the air as well
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 14
https://electrek.co/2018/02/03/all-electric-ferry-cuts-emission-cost/ http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180814-norways-plan-for-a-fleet-of-
electric-planes

15. Finnish EV goals for 2030
§ 2016 Energy and Climate Strategy:
• 250,000
§ 2018 ”ILMO” working group by Ministry of Transport and
Communications:
• 670,000
§ 2019 energy strategy of the Social Democratic Party
• 750,000
§ Challenge:
• Annual sales of cars ~ 120,000 units
• Reaching 750,000 EVs would mean on an average 68,000 EVs
annually over the next 11 years
• Definitely not doable!
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 15

16. Main challenges for EVs
§ Current challenges, e.g.:
• High cost of vehicles
• Limited range of BEVs
• Insufficient public recharging network
§ Future challenges, e.g.:
• Securing sufficiency of low-carbon electricity
• Use of materials, including selected rare metals
• Sufficiency of local electricity networks
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 16

17. Example of vehicle pricing
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 17
Petrol
BEV
Price without tax
https://www.volkswagen.fi/fi/auton-ostaminen/hinnastot-ja-esitteet.html

18. Cost of CO2 reductions – projection 2030
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 18
https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Publications/Integrated-Fuels-and-Vehicles-Roadmap-2030.html
N.B:
• Electrification of commercial
vehicles more cost effective
than for passenger cars
(up to 700 €/t CO2 for cars)
• City buses a real sweet spot
for electrification

19. EVs are more energy and CO2 intensive
to build than conventional vehicles
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 19
H. Pengg/Audi 2018
You need to drive an EV some
50,000...100,000 km on renewable
electricity to nullify the added
CO2 emission from production
of the vehicle
Red: emissions related to manufacturing
and recycling (for a 200,000 km service life)
Green: end-use (renewable)
Grey: end-use (fossil)

20. Focus on cobalt
22.3.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 20https://news.bloombergenvironment.com/environment-and-energy/electric-car
-revolution-could-stall-on-cobalt-shortage

21. Impacts on the grid
Total electricity consumption
§ If all current Finnish passenger cars were EVs, they would add some
9 TWh/a or some 10 % to the consumption of electricity
• Assumptions 2,6 M cars, 17,000 km/car/a, 0.2 kWh/km
• Not a very big problem?
Peak in power
§ If 10 % of the 2.6 M EVs (260,000 cars) would be charging simultaneously
at 10 kW, this would mean a power peak of 2.6 GW!
• When the number of EVs grows substantially, smart charging is a must!
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 21

22. Summary
§ Electrification of road vehicles will most probably progress rapidly between
2020 and 2030
§ Drivers include policy (EU, national and local governments) and increasingly
stringent binding vehicle CO2 regulations (tailpipe)
§ The higher the degree of utilization, the better is the profitability of EVs
• passenger cars worst case, but debated the most
§ Challenges in building up sufficient battery manufacturing capacity and
adequate public recharging networks may hamper progress
§ The total environmental impact of EVs (LCA level) is often not fully understood
§ Sophisticated ICEs operating on renewable fuels can have less overall
environmental impacts than EVs
§ EVs can be a blessing or a curse for electric networks
3/22/2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 22