Professor of Sociology Jani Erola, University of Turku, Finland, at INVEST – Towards the Next Welfare State? EU side event, 4 Oct 2019, THL, Helsinki

1. -
Welfare State
Model 2.0
Jani Erola
University of Turku

2. The goal of the INVEST Research Flagship is
to improve wellbeing and skill development in Finnish
society during childhood, youth and early adulthood...

3. ...and while doing that, to
provide a new model for the welfare states that is

4. ...and while doing that, to
provide a new model for the welfare states that is
more equal, better targeted to problem
groups, more anticipatory as well as
economically and socially sustainable

5. ???

6. Nordic welfare state
a globally acknowledged
success story

7. Reduced social inequlities
Increased wellbeing

8. Source: World Happines Index 2019

9. Source: Child Poverty, OECD 2015

10. Source: Godin & Hindriks 2018. "An international
comparison of school systems based on social mobility"

11. Source: goodcountry.org (Simon Anholt)

12. However,
A success story with
growing concerns

13. Persistent problems
Family conditions during childhood & youth
Schools, hobbies, working places
Status, income & wealth, health

14. Income inequality in Finland.
Source: Statistics Finland

15. Source: Vauhkonen et al 2017. “Intergenerational Accumulation of Social Disadvantages across Generations in Young Adulthood."

16. Growing concerns
Low fertility
Aging population
Changing modes of production

17. Source: Jalovaara et al 2019.
“Education, Gender, and Cohort
Fertility in the Nordic Countries.”

18. Source: Jalovaara et al 2019. “Education, Gender, and
Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries.”

19. Finnish population by age. Source: Statistics Finland 2019

20. Source: Karonen, Niemelä & Erola 2017. "The Middle Class in Finland"

21. To conclude, the threats:
Sticky problems that are staying
Hard to solve with money alone
Even if could be done, less money to spend because of
the demographic and other changes

22. Solutions of
INVEST Welfare State 2.0

23. 1. Universalism extended with
targeted help

24. An example:
The additional cost of services for school dropouts in
Finland:
+370.000 € / life-course
(Source: Hilli et at 2017)

25. Source: Statistics Finland

26. An example:
The additional cost of services for school dropouts in
Finland:
+370.000 € / life-course
(Source: Hilli et at 2017)
Cut 1/4 saves
1 billion €
in each birth cohort

27. Requires both
universally available secondary education
and
targeted measures
for those dropping out after primary
education

28. 2. From compensation to investments

29. Welfare state 1.0 helps when at need
However, if negative life course processes are known,
a just option is to prevent them

30. Welfare state 1.0 helps when at need
However, if negative life course processes are known,
a just option is to prevent them
Thus, Welfare state 2.0 invests on
prevention

31. Examples?
Low-education - Easy!

32. Examples?
Low-education - Easy!
Unemployment - Easy!

33. Examples?
Low-education - Easy!
Unemployment - Easy!
Single parent poverty? - Not that easy...

34. Examples?
Low-education - Easy!
Unemployment - Easy!
Single parent poverty? - Not that easy...
Low fertility & childlessness - Even harder!

35. 3. Use evidence-based interventions to cut
negative life course trajectories

36. "Stickyness" of social problems partially due to the path-
dependencies in multiple areas of life course
The effective policies should aim at either cutting those
dependencies or changing their course

37. An intervention
A combination of strategies to change individual behavior
Can include education, new policies, changes in
environment etc, multiple applied usually lead to better
results

38. An intervention
A combination of strategies to change individual behavior
Can include education, new policies, changes in
environment etc, multiple applied usually lead to better
results
Evidence-based: effectiveness proven with scientific
method

39. Source: Vauhkonen et al 2017. “Intergenerational Accumulation of Social Disadvantages across Generations in Young Adulthood."

40. Summary:

41. Welfare State Model 2.0
1. Universalism extended with targeted help
2. From compensation to investments
3. Use evidence-based interventions to cut negative trajectories

42. Thank you!
jani.erola@utu.fi
@JaniErola