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TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 1
E-Newsletter
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st
– 30th
, April 2015
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD.
Melbourne Office
Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street,
Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia
TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515
Shanghai Office
9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road,
Huangpu District, Shanghai, China
Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623
Introduction
Welcome to the 01st
– 30th
, April/2015 issue of the
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. E-Newsletter
Click HERE to see our PPT
Contents
※ Shipping Line Sailing Schedule Page 1
※ Asia Exhibitions Page 1
※ Australia Trading News Page 1-3
※ China Trading News Page3-5
※ What’s happening around the world now Page 4-6
※ TESN GROUP Page 6
Shipping Line Sailing Schedule Update
Click HERE to see our Sailing Schedule
Asia Exhibitions – March 2015
INTERMATCH 2015
 Date: 13 - 16 May 2015
 Industry: Machinery
 Venue: Bangkok International Trade Exhibition Centre
 Country: Thailand
 Organiser: UBM ASIA (Thailand) Co Ltd.
 Profile: ASEAN’s Largest International Machinery and
Subcontracting Exhibition.
CHINA HELICOPTER EXPOSITION
 Date: 9 - 13 September 2015
 Industry: Aircraft & Airport Technology
 Venue: Industry Base of the AVIC Helicopter
 Country: China
 Organiser: ABE (Advanced Business Events)
 Profile: China Helicopter Exposition 2015 will offer
rotorcraft industry professionals 20 000 sqm to
showcase and exhibit their products and capabilities, as
well as conduct business meetings and attend high
level conferences.
For more information about Latest shows
http://www.asiaexhibitions.com
Australia Trading News
Australian dollar marks time despite RBA's housing
concerns
The Australian dollar
edged slightly higher in
subdued trading
on Wednesday as
investors awaited further
signals on monetary
policy and inflation from around the world.
In late local trade, the Aussie was buying US78.73¢, down from
overnight highs of US79.40¢, but ahead of the US78.60¢
registered at the same time on Tuesday. The currency was largely
flat throughout the local trading session on Wednesday.
The surge above US79¢ to a new two-month high in international
trade had come despite data from the US showing a small
increase in core inflation to 1.7 per cent, and an acceleration in
the pace of new home sales.
Analysts noted that the local unit hit its peak just as the inflation
data was released. Inflation has become key to the US Federal
Reserve's next move on interest rates.
The central bank last week reiterated the importance of its 2 per
cent target when weighing up when to increase rates for the first
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 2
E-Newsletter
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st
– 30th
, April 2015
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD.
Melbourne Office
Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street,
Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia
TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515
Shanghai Office
9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road,
Huangpu District, Shanghai, China
Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623
time in nine months. "Consumer prices excluding food and
energy have increased at an annualised rate of 1.7 per cent over
the past six months and are so far holding up reasonably well."
On the domestic front on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of
Australia's Financial Stability Review was the only release
promising to move the Aussie as traders and investors looked for
signs that overheated property markets may dissuade the RBA
from cutting the cash rate again.
However, the report simply reiterated RBA concerns about the
build-up of property investor loans and how this was being
addressed through macro-prudential measures.
The tone left economists sticking to their forecasts of a second
cash rate cut, to 2 per cent, either next month or in May, after the
RBA's first reduction in 18 months in February.
"While the RBA clearly remains somewhat concerned about
imbalances in the housing market, we do not expect that these
concerns will prevent it from cutting rates again in the coming
months," ANZ Banking Group co-head of Australia economics
Felicity Emmett said.
(Financial Review, 25
th
March 2015)
A MODERN APPROACH TO OIL AND GAS LOGISTICAL
OPERATIONS
Time is money in the drilling business. With the cost of drilling
conventional and unconventional gas wells rising into the millions
of dollars, reducing downtime and expediting setup time are
critical to all stakeholders.
Biarri recently worked with the Australian division of Savanna
Energy - a subsidiary of the Savanna Group, a premiere North
American energy services provider headquartered in Calgary,
Alberta. Savanna Energy came in contact with Biarri through a
referral from an existing client who recognised that Biarri offered
a range of capabilities that could help solve Savanna’s unique
supply chain and logistics problem.
Biarri built a cloud based Transport Request Tool that facilitates
the movement of equipment and resources required by oil and
gas well sites. The tool deals with Savanna’s challenge of
maintaining satisfaction with the various Coal Seam Gas (CSG)
proponents by effectively, and efficiently managing their
communication.
Tzara Ayton, Biarri Project Manager and Core Developer
explained, “The initial goal of the project was to develop a tool
that would take Savanna’s existing fleet requirements and find
the best way to automate the allocation process. However, it was
quickly discovered that Savanna required a modern,
operational tool that would make their day to day operations
easier, and act as a platform to collect clean data so that Biarri
could build an optimisation solution. As it turns out, Biarri was
suited for this problem as we have strong capabilities in not only
smart strategic systems, but intuitive and powerful operational
tools.”
The new approach has allowed us to reduce man hours and gives
us a quicker turn around on job tasks. It also allows us to track
our vehicles and kilometres travelled at the click of a mouse.”
Savanna had a clear focus on ensuring the Transport Request Tool
was customised to their particular requirements and met
stringent use criteria. It was important that any changes to
systems or processes were accepted by Savanna staff. As result,
all of the new interfaces were collaboratively designed to be
consistent with formats that Savanna Planners were already
familiar with.
The new Transport Request Tool allows Savanna to track any
changes made to each individual transport request. This is
particularly relevant when last minute changes require hiring
extra trucks to satisfy urgent demand. The improved level of
granularity delivered within the tool means that Savanna can
identify where last minute changes were made and charge an
appropriate service premium.
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 3
E-Newsletter
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st
– 30th
, April 2015
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD.
Melbourne Office
Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street,
Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia
TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515
Shanghai Office
9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road,
Huangpu District, Shanghai, China
Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623
Savanna Energy now has access to files via the cloud ensuring far
greater communication. The Transport Request Tool forms the
core of the scheduling process and is a central resource across
the organisation catering for all key stakeholders.
(Global Logistic Media, 11
th
March 2015)
PENTHOUSE ON WINGS: ETIHAD SELLS OUT FIRST
JFK-ABU DHABI FLIGHT OF GIANT A380 WITH $32,000
SUITE
Etihad Airways says the
first JFK-Abu Dhabi
flight by its
penthouse-equipped
Airbus A380 sold out in
just four hours. Tickets
for the Dec. 1 flight went on sale about 7 a.m. March 4 and sold
out by 11 a.m., the carrier said.
The aircraft carries up to 496 passengers, with the exact total
dependent on whether the penthouse suite – which sells for
$32,000 one-way – is occupied by one or two passengers. The
A380 also has nine first class apartments, each with a leather
lounge chair and an ottoman that opens to become a bed.
While fares for inaugural flights are typically discounted, Etihad
spokeswoman Katie Connell said no promotional fares were
offered on this one. In particular, she said, “fares for Etihad’s
unique, ultra-luxury, ultra-private offering are not subject to
discounts or promotional fares.”
Of course Etihad flights have high passenger loads, critics say,
given that government subsidies enable the purchase of dozens
of new aircraft as well as the ability to operate an airline without
regard for whether it is profitable. All three Gulf carriers operate
hubs in their home countries, connecting passengers from
throughout the world.
The executives have made “numerous public claims, which we
now know beyond a reasonable doubt were untrue, that their
airlines were not government subsidized,” Moak said in a
prepared statement. “They have not been truthful for years
about these subsidies, attempting to hide them in their quest to
steal passengers from U.S. airlines, undercutting American jobs.”
(Forbes Life Business, 9
th
March 2015)
China Trading News
汇丰中国 3 月制造业 PMI 初值意外大跌至 50 以下 创 11 个
月最低
汇丰 3 月中国制造业 PMI 初值跌至 49.2,创 11 个月新低,远
低于预期和前值。该指数重返 50 荣枯线之内,表明中国制造
业在 3 月再度回到萎缩状态。彭博新闻社此前对经济学家调查
的结果显示,PMI 预期值为 50.5,较 2 月时的 50.7 略微下滑。
汇丰大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌认为,汇丰中国制造业 PMI
数据表明中国制造业在 3 月轻微恶化。民生宏观固收团队也表
示,3 月是传统开工旺季,但汇丰 PMI 预览值仍大幅低于预期,
显示经济下行压力依然存在。中金公司并不赞同目前经济已经
在筑底的观点。该投行认为,二季度经济和通胀仍会延续下滑,
而货币条件并无实质性放松,经济目前还看不到走强的有力支
撑,
3 月汇丰 PMI 重新下滑显示经济并没有企稳,本质上,实际经
济目前仍处于去杠杆过程当中,去杠杆才是大周期,库存只是
小周期,小周期对经济的支撑无法抵御大周期的下行压力。去
库存去的并不彻底,反过来就预示着补库存也只是象征性的。
货币政策或在 3 月数据公布前后再度加码放松。民生宏观固收
认为,中国经济下行仍有压力,期待政策宽松:
新订单加速下行,与房地产投资下行有关。3 月 30 城市房地
产销售数据继续疲软,从销售到投资滞后两季度的传导链条看,
房地产投资年内难企稳。新订单下行抑制企业生产和采购,数
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 4
E-Newsletter
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st
– 30th
, April 2015
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD.
Melbourne Office
Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street,
Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia
TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515
Shanghai Office
9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road,
Huangpu District, Shanghai, China
Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623
据上看,产出和就业指数继续下行,生产疲弱未来将继续抑制
采购与购进价格,企业未来继续以库存去化为主。经济下行压
力犹存,政策上预计会加大稳增长力度,围绕着一带一路基建
投资项目将陆续上马,货币宽松不会停止,降准降息只是时间
问题。
分项数据中,3 月制造业 PMI 产出指数为 50.8,创 2 个月新低,
低于 2 月的 51.7。新订单指数跌至 49.3,同样为 11 个月新低。
新出口订单指数连续第二个月下滑,但跌速减缓。就业指数跌
幅较大,为连续第 17 个月低于 50,并创下 2009 年 2 月以来
低点:
汇丰 3 月中国制造业 PMI 初值分项数据如下图:
对于上述分项数据表现,屈宏斌点评称,新业务整体再度下跌
拖累产出指数扩张增速放缓,制造业企业持续裁减员工数量。
同时,由于国际油价仍在下挫,制造业企业也继续从投入成本
下跌中受益。然而,相对疲软的客户需求导致企业节省开支,
用以增加新的业务。企业也以同样大的幅度削减了销售价格。
至于该数据对金融市场的影响,民生宏观固投认为,未来债券
市场可能受到影响:利率短期受债务置换供给因素拖累,但去
产能大周期和货币宽松意味着长牛不改,长端收益率向上修复
后仍具配置价值。实际上,中国仍面临较大经济下行压力已是
共识。中国国务院副总理张高丽就曾在 22 日承认,今年中国
经济下行压力有所加大,困难比去年多。中国央行行长周小川
周末表示:“如果货币政策过度宽松,对于结构改革是不利的。”
这或许暗示着更加糟糕的经济数据可能也不会促使高层进一
步放松货币政策。中国目前在面临美联储可能加息之际仍保持
宽松政策,表明中美两国的货币政策存在分歧迹象。
中国经济增速已放缓至 7.4%,为 24 年最慢水平。中国国务院
总理李克强在作政府工作报告时表示,2015 年 GDP 增长目标
在 7%左右。中国经济增速已放缓至 7.4%,为 24 年最慢水平。
中国国务院总理李克强在作政府工作报告时表示,2015 年
GDP 增长目标在 7%左右。
受产出、新订单等指数好转推动,汇丰 2 月中国制造业 PMI
初值环比略升至 50.7,为 3 个月内首次重返荣枯线之上。汇
丰制造业指数更侧重于中国的中小企业和民营企业,中国官方
制造业 PMI 则主要覆盖大型企业和国有企业。中国 2 月官方
制造业 PMI 报 49.9,略好于预期和前值的 49.8。
汇丰 3 月中国制造业 PMI 终值定于 4 月 1 日发布。PMI 数据
公布后,上证综指短线扩大跌幅,但随后上扬。香港恒生国企
指数跌幅扩大至 1%。澳元/美元短线走低。
(China Daily News, 24
th
March 2015)
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 5
E-Newsletter
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st
– 30th
, April 2015
TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD.
Melbourne Office
Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street,
Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia
TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515
Shanghai Office
9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road,
Huangpu District, Shanghai, China
Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623
WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND THE WORLD
NOW
MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL COMEDY FESTIVAL
Start Date : 25 March 2015
End Date : 19 April 2015
Venue : Melbourne Town Hall
From March 25 to April 19 2015, the world's most powerful legal
mood-enhancer hits Melbourne - the Melbourne International
Comedy Festival. Prepare for great swells of enjoyment to roll
across the city capturing all in its euphoric wave.
As tradition has it, this Festival - 'The People's Festival' - doesn't
hold back when it comes to sharing the comedy. The young and
the young at heart; the wealthy and the fiscally-challenged; the
do-gooders and the dirty jokers. Absolutely everyone gets in on
the joke. The Melbourne International Comedy Festival -
increasing happiness levels, one laugh at a time.
ANZAV CENTENARY - VICTORIA’s JOURNEY OF
REMEMBRANCE
Start Date : 13 April 2015
End Date : 28 April 2015
Venue : State Library of Victoria 328
On the morning of 25 April 1915, allied troops came ashore at
Gallipoli in an attempt to seize the peninsula. Mistakenly landing
a mile from their target location, by evening over 2000
Australians had been killed or wounded.
This event is brought to you by the Victorian Government,
Veterans Branch, Department of Premier & Cabinet, as part of the
Anzac centenary.
WRITING THE WAR PERSONAL STORIES - WWI
Start Date : 9 April 2015
End Date : 4 October 2015
Venue :Palmer Hall
Nurse, bank clerk, farmer, sports master, journalist, artist, activist
– encounter seven ordinary Australians and hear their
extraordinary stories of war in this moving exhibition tracing
WWI through personal accounts.
Long before Facebook posts and Skype calls, Australians serving
during WWI shared their experiences through letters, diaries and
photographs sent to loved ones. Watch, listen to and feel the
power of those words expressed during the Great War through
seven unique perspectives and experiences.

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E-NEWSLETTER April 2015

  • 1. TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 1 E-Newsletter TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st – 30th , April 2015 TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. Melbourne Office Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street, Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515 Shanghai Office 9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, China Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623 Introduction Welcome to the 01st – 30th , April/2015 issue of the TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. E-Newsletter Click HERE to see our PPT Contents ※ Shipping Line Sailing Schedule Page 1 ※ Asia Exhibitions Page 1 ※ Australia Trading News Page 1-3 ※ China Trading News Page3-5 ※ What’s happening around the world now Page 4-6 ※ TESN GROUP Page 6 Shipping Line Sailing Schedule Update Click HERE to see our Sailing Schedule Asia Exhibitions – March 2015 INTERMATCH 2015  Date: 13 - 16 May 2015  Industry: Machinery  Venue: Bangkok International Trade Exhibition Centre  Country: Thailand  Organiser: UBM ASIA (Thailand) Co Ltd.  Profile: ASEAN’s Largest International Machinery and Subcontracting Exhibition. CHINA HELICOPTER EXPOSITION  Date: 9 - 13 September 2015  Industry: Aircraft & Airport Technology  Venue: Industry Base of the AVIC Helicopter  Country: China  Organiser: ABE (Advanced Business Events)  Profile: China Helicopter Exposition 2015 will offer rotorcraft industry professionals 20 000 sqm to showcase and exhibit their products and capabilities, as well as conduct business meetings and attend high level conferences. For more information about Latest shows http://www.asiaexhibitions.com Australia Trading News Australian dollar marks time despite RBA's housing concerns The Australian dollar edged slightly higher in subdued trading on Wednesday as investors awaited further signals on monetary policy and inflation from around the world. In late local trade, the Aussie was buying US78.73¢, down from overnight highs of US79.40¢, but ahead of the US78.60¢ registered at the same time on Tuesday. The currency was largely flat throughout the local trading session on Wednesday. The surge above US79¢ to a new two-month high in international trade had come despite data from the US showing a small increase in core inflation to 1.7 per cent, and an acceleration in the pace of new home sales. Analysts noted that the local unit hit its peak just as the inflation data was released. Inflation has become key to the US Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. The central bank last week reiterated the importance of its 2 per cent target when weighing up when to increase rates for the first
  • 2. TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 2 E-Newsletter TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st – 30th , April 2015 TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. Melbourne Office Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street, Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515 Shanghai Office 9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, China Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623 time in nine months. "Consumer prices excluding food and energy have increased at an annualised rate of 1.7 per cent over the past six months and are so far holding up reasonably well." On the domestic front on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Financial Stability Review was the only release promising to move the Aussie as traders and investors looked for signs that overheated property markets may dissuade the RBA from cutting the cash rate again. However, the report simply reiterated RBA concerns about the build-up of property investor loans and how this was being addressed through macro-prudential measures. The tone left economists sticking to their forecasts of a second cash rate cut, to 2 per cent, either next month or in May, after the RBA's first reduction in 18 months in February. "While the RBA clearly remains somewhat concerned about imbalances in the housing market, we do not expect that these concerns will prevent it from cutting rates again in the coming months," ANZ Banking Group co-head of Australia economics Felicity Emmett said. (Financial Review, 25 th March 2015) A MODERN APPROACH TO OIL AND GAS LOGISTICAL OPERATIONS Time is money in the drilling business. With the cost of drilling conventional and unconventional gas wells rising into the millions of dollars, reducing downtime and expediting setup time are critical to all stakeholders. Biarri recently worked with the Australian division of Savanna Energy - a subsidiary of the Savanna Group, a premiere North American energy services provider headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. Savanna Energy came in contact with Biarri through a referral from an existing client who recognised that Biarri offered a range of capabilities that could help solve Savanna’s unique supply chain and logistics problem. Biarri built a cloud based Transport Request Tool that facilitates the movement of equipment and resources required by oil and gas well sites. The tool deals with Savanna’s challenge of maintaining satisfaction with the various Coal Seam Gas (CSG) proponents by effectively, and efficiently managing their communication. Tzara Ayton, Biarri Project Manager and Core Developer explained, “The initial goal of the project was to develop a tool that would take Savanna’s existing fleet requirements and find the best way to automate the allocation process. However, it was quickly discovered that Savanna required a modern, operational tool that would make their day to day operations easier, and act as a platform to collect clean data so that Biarri could build an optimisation solution. As it turns out, Biarri was suited for this problem as we have strong capabilities in not only smart strategic systems, but intuitive and powerful operational tools.” The new approach has allowed us to reduce man hours and gives us a quicker turn around on job tasks. It also allows us to track our vehicles and kilometres travelled at the click of a mouse.” Savanna had a clear focus on ensuring the Transport Request Tool was customised to their particular requirements and met stringent use criteria. It was important that any changes to systems or processes were accepted by Savanna staff. As result, all of the new interfaces were collaboratively designed to be consistent with formats that Savanna Planners were already familiar with. The new Transport Request Tool allows Savanna to track any changes made to each individual transport request. This is particularly relevant when last minute changes require hiring extra trucks to satisfy urgent demand. The improved level of granularity delivered within the tool means that Savanna can identify where last minute changes were made and charge an appropriate service premium.
  • 3. TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 3 E-Newsletter TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st – 30th , April 2015 TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. Melbourne Office Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street, Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515 Shanghai Office 9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, China Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623 Savanna Energy now has access to files via the cloud ensuring far greater communication. The Transport Request Tool forms the core of the scheduling process and is a central resource across the organisation catering for all key stakeholders. (Global Logistic Media, 11 th March 2015) PENTHOUSE ON WINGS: ETIHAD SELLS OUT FIRST JFK-ABU DHABI FLIGHT OF GIANT A380 WITH $32,000 SUITE Etihad Airways says the first JFK-Abu Dhabi flight by its penthouse-equipped Airbus A380 sold out in just four hours. Tickets for the Dec. 1 flight went on sale about 7 a.m. March 4 and sold out by 11 a.m., the carrier said. The aircraft carries up to 496 passengers, with the exact total dependent on whether the penthouse suite – which sells for $32,000 one-way – is occupied by one or two passengers. The A380 also has nine first class apartments, each with a leather lounge chair and an ottoman that opens to become a bed. While fares for inaugural flights are typically discounted, Etihad spokeswoman Katie Connell said no promotional fares were offered on this one. In particular, she said, “fares for Etihad’s unique, ultra-luxury, ultra-private offering are not subject to discounts or promotional fares.” Of course Etihad flights have high passenger loads, critics say, given that government subsidies enable the purchase of dozens of new aircraft as well as the ability to operate an airline without regard for whether it is profitable. All three Gulf carriers operate hubs in their home countries, connecting passengers from throughout the world. The executives have made “numerous public claims, which we now know beyond a reasonable doubt were untrue, that their airlines were not government subsidized,” Moak said in a prepared statement. “They have not been truthful for years about these subsidies, attempting to hide them in their quest to steal passengers from U.S. airlines, undercutting American jobs.” (Forbes Life Business, 9 th March 2015) China Trading News 汇丰中国 3 月制造业 PMI 初值意外大跌至 50 以下 创 11 个 月最低 汇丰 3 月中国制造业 PMI 初值跌至 49.2,创 11 个月新低,远 低于预期和前值。该指数重返 50 荣枯线之内,表明中国制造 业在 3 月再度回到萎缩状态。彭博新闻社此前对经济学家调查 的结果显示,PMI 预期值为 50.5,较 2 月时的 50.7 略微下滑。 汇丰大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌认为,汇丰中国制造业 PMI 数据表明中国制造业在 3 月轻微恶化。民生宏观固收团队也表 示,3 月是传统开工旺季,但汇丰 PMI 预览值仍大幅低于预期, 显示经济下行压力依然存在。中金公司并不赞同目前经济已经 在筑底的观点。该投行认为,二季度经济和通胀仍会延续下滑, 而货币条件并无实质性放松,经济目前还看不到走强的有力支 撑, 3 月汇丰 PMI 重新下滑显示经济并没有企稳,本质上,实际经 济目前仍处于去杠杆过程当中,去杠杆才是大周期,库存只是 小周期,小周期对经济的支撑无法抵御大周期的下行压力。去 库存去的并不彻底,反过来就预示着补库存也只是象征性的。 货币政策或在 3 月数据公布前后再度加码放松。民生宏观固收 认为,中国经济下行仍有压力,期待政策宽松: 新订单加速下行,与房地产投资下行有关。3 月 30 城市房地 产销售数据继续疲软,从销售到投资滞后两季度的传导链条看, 房地产投资年内难企稳。新订单下行抑制企业生产和采购,数
  • 4. TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 4 E-Newsletter TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st – 30th , April 2015 TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. Melbourne Office Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street, Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515 Shanghai Office 9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, China Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623 据上看,产出和就业指数继续下行,生产疲弱未来将继续抑制 采购与购进价格,企业未来继续以库存去化为主。经济下行压 力犹存,政策上预计会加大稳增长力度,围绕着一带一路基建 投资项目将陆续上马,货币宽松不会停止,降准降息只是时间 问题。 分项数据中,3 月制造业 PMI 产出指数为 50.8,创 2 个月新低, 低于 2 月的 51.7。新订单指数跌至 49.3,同样为 11 个月新低。 新出口订单指数连续第二个月下滑,但跌速减缓。就业指数跌 幅较大,为连续第 17 个月低于 50,并创下 2009 年 2 月以来 低点: 汇丰 3 月中国制造业 PMI 初值分项数据如下图: 对于上述分项数据表现,屈宏斌点评称,新业务整体再度下跌 拖累产出指数扩张增速放缓,制造业企业持续裁减员工数量。 同时,由于国际油价仍在下挫,制造业企业也继续从投入成本 下跌中受益。然而,相对疲软的客户需求导致企业节省开支, 用以增加新的业务。企业也以同样大的幅度削减了销售价格。 至于该数据对金融市场的影响,民生宏观固投认为,未来债券 市场可能受到影响:利率短期受债务置换供给因素拖累,但去 产能大周期和货币宽松意味着长牛不改,长端收益率向上修复 后仍具配置价值。实际上,中国仍面临较大经济下行压力已是 共识。中国国务院副总理张高丽就曾在 22 日承认,今年中国 经济下行压力有所加大,困难比去年多。中国央行行长周小川 周末表示:“如果货币政策过度宽松,对于结构改革是不利的。” 这或许暗示着更加糟糕的经济数据可能也不会促使高层进一 步放松货币政策。中国目前在面临美联储可能加息之际仍保持 宽松政策,表明中美两国的货币政策存在分歧迹象。 中国经济增速已放缓至 7.4%,为 24 年最慢水平。中国国务院 总理李克强在作政府工作报告时表示,2015 年 GDP 增长目标 在 7%左右。中国经济增速已放缓至 7.4%,为 24 年最慢水平。 中国国务院总理李克强在作政府工作报告时表示,2015 年 GDP 增长目标在 7%左右。 受产出、新订单等指数好转推动,汇丰 2 月中国制造业 PMI 初值环比略升至 50.7,为 3 个月内首次重返荣枯线之上。汇 丰制造业指数更侧重于中国的中小企业和民营企业,中国官方 制造业 PMI 则主要覆盖大型企业和国有企业。中国 2 月官方 制造业 PMI 报 49.9,略好于预期和前值的 49.8。 汇丰 3 月中国制造业 PMI 终值定于 4 月 1 日发布。PMI 数据 公布后,上证综指短线扩大跌幅,但随后上扬。香港恒生国企 指数跌幅扩大至 1%。澳元/美元短线走低。 (China Daily News, 24 th March 2015)
  • 5. TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. – E-Newsletter 5 E-Newsletter TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. 01st – 30th , April 2015 TESN INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT PTY LTD. Melbourne Office Unit 128, 757 Bourke Street, Docklands, 3008, VIC, Australia TEL: 61-3-9670 0578 FAX: 61-3-9998 0515 Shanghai Office 9C, West Block, No. 668, East Beijing Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, China Tel & Fax: +86 21 63152623 WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND THE WORLD NOW MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL COMEDY FESTIVAL Start Date : 25 March 2015 End Date : 19 April 2015 Venue : Melbourne Town Hall From March 25 to April 19 2015, the world's most powerful legal mood-enhancer hits Melbourne - the Melbourne International Comedy Festival. Prepare for great swells of enjoyment to roll across the city capturing all in its euphoric wave. As tradition has it, this Festival - 'The People's Festival' - doesn't hold back when it comes to sharing the comedy. The young and the young at heart; the wealthy and the fiscally-challenged; the do-gooders and the dirty jokers. Absolutely everyone gets in on the joke. The Melbourne International Comedy Festival - increasing happiness levels, one laugh at a time. ANZAV CENTENARY - VICTORIA’s JOURNEY OF REMEMBRANCE Start Date : 13 April 2015 End Date : 28 April 2015 Venue : State Library of Victoria 328 On the morning of 25 April 1915, allied troops came ashore at Gallipoli in an attempt to seize the peninsula. Mistakenly landing a mile from their target location, by evening over 2000 Australians had been killed or wounded. This event is brought to you by the Victorian Government, Veterans Branch, Department of Premier & Cabinet, as part of the Anzac centenary. WRITING THE WAR PERSONAL STORIES - WWI Start Date : 9 April 2015 End Date : 4 October 2015 Venue :Palmer Hall Nurse, bank clerk, farmer, sports master, journalist, artist, activist – encounter seven ordinary Australians and hear their extraordinary stories of war in this moving exhibition tracing WWI through personal accounts. Long before Facebook posts and Skype calls, Australians serving during WWI shared their experiences through letters, diaries and photographs sent to loved ones. Watch, listen to and feel the power of those words expressed during the Great War through seven unique perspectives and experiences.