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Global REITs
2020-02-12
1
Portfolio Update (2019-02-12)
220200212
3
Portfolio Position as of
5:15pm, 12 Feb, 2020
4
Geography
US 23.09%
AU 10.84%
SG 9.10%
HK 5.78%
JP 4.67%
UK 3.05%
EU 3.65%
CA 3.76%
Total 63.94%
Sector
Industrial 15.75%
Retail 11.88%
Cell Tower 7.22%
Healthcare 5.98%
Residential 9.00%
Specialty 4.86%
Diversified 4.01%
Hotel 0.00%
Office 5.24%
Total 63.94%
Portfolio Position as of
5:15pm, 12 Feb, 2020
5
Summary of transaction in last week
● Bought 50 share of SAFE (US Speciality)
● Bought 100 share of SMU (CA Industrial)
● Bought 50 share of MI (CA Office)
● Bought 30 share of XIOR (EU Residential)
● Bought 100 share of SGRO (UK Industrial)
● Bought 1 share of 8787 (JP Office)
● Sold 300 share of BBOX(UK Industrial)
● Sold 1 share of 8985 (JP Hotel)
6
Global REITs Return
Local currency
USD
Source: data from UBS
7
Country Currency/Fundamental view
Country Outlook Currency Fundamental Rationale
United States Bullish Appreciate Bullish
Japan Bullish Appreciate Neutral Supply-demand in the office sector remains tight, but rent rises are not accelerating, pace
of rent rises is likely to slow further towards the end of 2021
Australia Bullish Appreciate Neutral Continued demand for Industrial assets, expect Office market to outperform given limited
new supply and very strong demand for assets
Europe Bullish Depreciate Bullish Strong industrial and residential market due to potential rate cut, cautious on retail
Singapore Bearish Depreciate Bearish Retail and Hospitality sectors widely affected by close down of borders to Mainland
Chinese visitors
United Kingdom Bullish Appreciate Neutral Bright outlook towards London office market, limited supply and high pre-leasing: just
28% of developments currently hit the market speculatively, city rents are expected to
rise, post-trade uncertainties linger
Canada Bullish Appreciate Bullish
Hong Kong Bearish Appreciate Bearish Wuhan Pneumonie - retail sales expected to decline by 30% YoY in Jan, not expecting
recovery due to ongoing social unrest, narrowing price differentials between China/HK
and macro uncertainties
Source: Invbots analysis
8
Allocation Updates
Country Outlook Market Cap (USD) Current
Allocation
% stock/cash
United States Bullish 1,337,343,183,818 35%
Japan Bullish 156,477,133,890 15%
Australia Bullish 104,301,083,558 15%
Europe Bullish 141,396,332,188 15%
Singapore Bearish 80,709,388,924 5%
United
Kingdom
Bullish 87,966,851,538 15%
Canada Bullish 62,282,769,175 5%
Hong Kong Bearish 35,121,369,455 5%
Source: Invbots analysis
9
Outperforming/Underperforming factors (5 trading days)
10
Outperforming/Underperforming factors (1 month)
11
Global REIT valuation metrics
12
REIT market cap (%)
A-REITs
13
14
A-REITs Review & Strategy
Weekly Review:
● A-REITs +0.97% underperformed ASX +1.46% due to (1) repricing/rebound of the equity
market towards coronavirus (2) rebound of 10y Gov Yield
● Outperforming factors:
○ Large Mkt Cap
○ High Valuation (High P/E, Low Yield)
○ Industrial REITs
● Underperforming factors:
○ Small Mkt Cap
○ Low Valuation (Low P/E, High Yield)
○ Health Care REITs
Proposed strategy: (1) Growth Portfolio (2) Avoid Lodging/Retail; Prefer Residential/Industrial
Source: Invbots analysis
15Source: Tradingview
REIT Index (XPJ) +0.97% / Equity Index (XJO) +1.46%
16Source: Tradingview
REIT Index (XPJ) +0.97% / Australian 10y Gov Yield +ve
17Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
18
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
19
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
INA Ingenia Communities Group Residential - Housing market is rebounding due to rate cut. Melbourne & Sydney house price
reaching all time high
- Rather resilient to coronavirus compared to other commercial properties
CHC Charter Hall Group Diversified - Diversified between Office, Industrial, and Retail with strong FFO growth
CIP Centuria Industrial REIT Industrial - E-commerce demand is resilient to coronavirus (if not benefited) and remains
strong
- GMG targets mega-size properties and focuses on international expansion
- CIP targets mid to small-size properties and located near metropolitan areas in
Australia
GMG Goodman Group Industrial
ARF Arena REIT Healthcare - Early Learning (85%), Healthcare (15%), strong momentum recently
- WALE of 14.1yrs and Occupancy of 100%
Source: Invbots analysis
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
20
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
21
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
LEP ALE Property Group Specialised - Increasing HY rental revenue and profits
- None of the properties damaged by bushfires
SCP Shopping Centres
Australasia Property Group
Retail - Cuts rental costs to fill in vacancies
- Portfolio sale: loses money on one asset but does well for the other four
GOZ Growthpoint Properties Diversified - High occupancy rate (98%), office and industrial REIT (Good prospects)
VCX Vicinity Centres Retail - Improving rental revenue and profits
CLW Charter Hall Long WALE
REIT
Diversified - Benefitted from $1.4b acquisitions, increasing the portfolio's average lease expiry
Source: Invbots analysis
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
22
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
EU-REITs
23
24
EU-REITs Review & Strategy
Weekly Review:
● EU-REITs +1.97% underperformed STOXX 600 +2.87% due to repricing/rebound of the equity
market towards coronavirus
● Outperforming factors:
○ High Div Yld
○ Small Mkt Cap, High P/E
○ Healthcare REITs
● Underperforming factors:
○ High D/E
○ Large Mkt Cap, Low P/E
○ Retail REITs
Proposed strategy: (1) Growth Portfolio (2) Monitoring potential buying opportunities
Source: Invbots analysis
25Source: Tradingview
REIT Index (REITE) +1.97% / Equity Index (STOXX) +2.87%
26Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
27
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
28Source: Invbots analysis
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
YGGC.MC General de Galeries
Comerciales SOCIMI
Retail Will look into fundamentals and make further updates next week
WDPP.BR Warehouses de Pauw
Comm VA
Industrial
COFB.BR Cofinimmo SA Diversified
XIOR.BR Xior Student Housing Residential
FLYP.PA Societe Fonciere
Lyonnaise SA
Office
29
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
30
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
COFB.BR Cofinimmo NV/SA Diversified Selected due to statistics, criteria including:
- Market cap > 1b euro
- Gearing ratio < 100%
- Dividend yield > 3%
- Total return outperformed EU-REITs average in 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y
Will look into fundamentals and make further updates next week
FLYP.PA Societe Fonciere
Lyonnaise SA
Office
S76.F STORE Capital
Corporation
Diversified
GFCP.PA Gecina SA Diversified
PRODr.AT Prontea Ependyseon S
Aknt Prs AE
Diversified
Source: Invbots analysis
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
31
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
S-REITs
32
33
S-REIT Review and Strategy
● S-REITs +2.0% outperform Equity Index 1.51% due to
● Outperforming factors:
○ High beta (>75%)
○ Low PE (<25%)
○ High yield (>75%)
○ High D/E (>75%)
○ Office sector
● Underperforming factors:
○ Low yield (<50%)
○ High P/E (>75%)
○ Hotel/Resorts Sector
○ Retail sector
● Proposed strategy: industrial, health care and office
Source: Invbots analysis
34
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
35
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
36
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
ME8U Mapletree Industrial Trust Industrial ● Potential inorganic growth strategy in the US coupled with a focus on redevelopments in
Singapore - Manager’s well-timed acquisitions and completions/initiations of new
development projects underpin a steady growth profile
● Improvements in operating metrics and conductive cost of capital exhibit visible acquistion
path - redevelopment of its “landbank” of older flatted factories like Kolam Ayer cluster
should drive medium-term growth
C2PU Parkwaylife REIT Health Care ● Expect positive outcome from extension of lease
● Resilient due to its long WALE of 6.5 years
AJBU Keppel DC REIT Specialized
(Data Centre)
● Strong proxy to growing demand for data centre space
● Improvement in occupancy rate to 94.9% (there’s still room for improvement)
● Overall WALE of 8.6 years remains healthy
K71U Keppel REIT Office ● Downside mitigated by strong positive rental reversions with new signing rents in 4Q19
higher than current Grade A core CBD rents
● Divestment of Bugis Junction Tower has generated some buffer in terms of lowering
overall cost of debt and offering higher capital distributions
A17U Ascendas Trust Industrial ● Rental growth momentum supporting DPU recovery
● Revenue rose 5.9%, mainly by contributions from 28 new US and 2 SG business parks
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
Source: Invbots analysis
37
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
ME8U Mapletree Industrial Trust 25% 4,541 21.62 4.60% 0.28
C2PU Parkwaylife REIT 25% 1,553 26.18 3.85% 0.31
AJBU Keppel DC REIT 15% 2,862 25.31 3.70% 0.22
K71U Keppel REIT 25% 3,122 28.11 4.57% 0.51
A17U Ascendas Trust 10% 8,509 20.15 4.95% 0.41
Portfolio Average 4,118 24.27 4.34% 0.34
Market Cap Weighted Average 22.85 4.56% 0.35
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
Source: Invbots analysis
38
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
HMN Ascott Residence Trust Residential ● Steady increase in DPU.
● Has limited exposure to the coronavirus.
● Refinanced debt at lower rates
● Strong balance sheet (improving profit and revenues)
J91U ESR REIT Industrial ● Steady increase in DPU
● Tenant retention rate: 69.6%, WALE is 3.8 years
● Higher than average occupancy rate (90.6%)
CNNU Cromwell Europe Industrial ● Increase in DPU over the past year
● Recent acquisitions of 3 German assets
● 39.2% increase in distributable income
T82U Suntec REIT Office ● Expecting firm rental reversions Singapore office portfolio in 2020
● City Mall has also exhibited resilience despite retail headwinds
● Increased exposure to Australia also provides it with a more diversified income
stream
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
Source: Invbots analysis
39
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
HMN Ascott Residence Trust 30% 2,825 19.45 6.06% 0.25
J91U ESR REIT 20% 1,371 14.82 7.30% 0.37
CNNU Cromwell Europe 20% 1,585 14.93 6.84% 0.36
T82U Suntec REIT 30% 3,691 23.97 5.28% 0.58
Portfolio Average 1,894 18.29 6.36% 0.39
Market Cap Weighted Average 19.78 6.06% 0.41
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
Source: Invbots analysis
J-REITs
40
41
J-REIT Review and Strategy
● J-REITs 0.5% , slightly underperformed 0.94% of TOPIX due to 1) Rumoured completion of the vaccines for Coronavirus in US 2)
investment sentiments in US / Japan propelled by the strong US Employment figures (Beat by 65k) 3) Yet, The recent measures
proposed by Japan Government to combat against the virus maintain tail risk.
● Outperforming factors:
○ High market cap (0-25%)
○ Mid Yield (50%-75%)
○ High PE (0%-25%)
○ Mid Beta (25-50%)
○ Industrial Sector
● Underperforming factors:
○ High Beta (0-25%)
○ High Yield (>75%)
○ Hotel & Resort Sector
● Proposed strategy: Long large cap and Industrial REIT on increasing production scale of medical equipments/medicals products
(Facemask)
42
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
43
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
44
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
8961 Mori Trust Sogo REIT Inc Office REITs Owned 15 properties in different major spots in Japan(80% in Tokyo), maintained 99.9% Occupancy rate on the
overall portfolio
3292 Aeon REIT Investment Corp Retail REITs 100% Occupancy rate, Stable DPU and Operating Revenue, trend, 3rd largest Retail REIT in JP
8987 Japan Excellent Inc Office REITs DPU growth reached a 5Y CAGR of 2.67%, major tenants are large corp. (Toshiba, Hitachi etc), 50% of the
buildings are in Area I, with occupancy rate 99.4%
8967 Japan Logistics Fund Inc Industrial REITs AA Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, 99%+ occupancy rate since last year, DPU growth reached a
5Y CAGR of 2.37%
3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT Industrial REITs AA- Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, maintained 98%+ occupancy rate since 2018, held 16
properties in Tokyo and Osaka,
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
45
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
8961 Mori Trust Sogo REIT Inc 20% 259,380 26.6 3.79% -0.01
3292 Aeon REIT Investment Corp 20% 271,069 23.8 4.25% 0.12
8987 Japan Excellent Inc 20% 263,131 35.0 2.98% -0.06
8967 Japan Logistics Fund Inc 20% 260,480 29.4 3.38% -0.06
3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT 20% 242,887 31.1 3.58% -0.13
Portfolio Average
1,296,947 29.2 3.60% 0.02
Market Cap Weighted Average
29.1 3.60% 0.03
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
46
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
8984 Daiwa House Reit Investment
Corp
Diversified REITs Largest residential reit in JP, stable and healthy in DPU, Net Income and total assets, LTV kept ~40%
3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT Industrial REITs AA- Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, maintained 98%+ occupancy rate since 2018, held 16
properties in Tokyo and Osaka,
3281 GLP J-REIT Industrial REITs AA Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, DPU growth reached a 5Y CAGR of 2.29%, has been
expanding the portfolio from 62 properties in 2017 to 75 in 2019
3296 Nippon REIT Diversified REITs Diversified resilient portfolio in office, residential and retail, portfolio occupancy rate maintained at ~99%, Long-
term issuer rating: A
3249 Industrial & Infrastructure Fund
Investment Corp
Industrial REITs AA Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, Held 72 properties with occupancy rate 100%, healthy DPU
growth,
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
47
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
8984 Daiwa House Reit Investment Corp 20% 604,862 32.8 3.91% 0.00
3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT 25% 242,887 31.1 3.58% -0.13
3281 GLP J-REIT 20% 575,013 30.8 3.45% -0.38
3296 Nippon REIT 15% 221,366 27.1 3.57% -0.17
3249 Industrial & Infrastructure Fund
Investment Corp
20% 324,867 30.2 3.48% 0.06
Portfolio Average
1,968,995 30.6 3.60% 0.01
Market Cap Weighted Average
30.9 3.62% 0.01
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
UK REITs
48
49
UK-REITs Review and Strategy
Weekly Review:
● UK-REIT, 1.2% slightly outperformed 0.8% of FTSE 100 due to 1) Brexit Overhang
subsided 2) Office rent keeps breaking high
● Outperforming factors:
○ High Market Cap
○ Mid yield, D/E, PE
○ Office REITs
● Underperforming factors:
○ Low Market cap , PE , Yield
○ High beta
○ Retail REIT
● Proposed strategy: i) Prefer Office / Industrial on Office rent and E-commerce uptrend iii)
Bottom-fishing some retail REITs with high yield.
50
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
51
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
52
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
BBOXT.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC Industrial E-commerce basket
GPOR.L Great Portland Estates
PLC
Office London-focused → experience high demand for its enviably-located portfolio of West End
commercial properties
LAND.L Land Securities Group Plc
Ord
Diversified Landsec’s £3bn pipeline of development opportunities will shift its emphasis further towards the
office market. It continues to experience high demand – particularly in London.
CSH.L Civitas Social Housing
PLC
Residential Acquired 9 new properties within the latest three-month period. Investment opportunities remains
robust and schemes and properties brought by Civitas directly(active management)
SOHO.L Triple Point Social
Housing REIT PLC
Residential Growing business: Acquired 18 Properties in Oct 2019. Bought 40 Care Properties in Sep 2019.
Bought 5 Properties in July 2019.
SGRO.L SEGRO plc Industrial Owns range of warehouses in UK. Bet on UK E-commerce penetration rate (+19% Y-o-Y in 2019).
Structural uptrend of e-commerce will continue benefit SGRO. NPI +8% yoy in last two years.
DLN.L Derwent London Plc Office Subsided tail risk of Brexit after election. Top Quality Management constantly delivering market
outperformance. Recent acquisition of the Brixton's Blue Star (38.1m Pound Sterlings). Bet on
significant rebound of London office market and NAV Growth.
Implied Yield of 4%.
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
53
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
BBOX.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC 15% 2,441 10.2 4.84% 0.52
GPOR.L Great Portland Estates PLC 10% 2,361 41.5 1.35% 0.17
LAND.L Land Securities Group Plc Ord 15% 7,074 N.A. 4.86% 0.76
CSH.L Civitas Social Housing PLC 10% 608 22.9 5.41% 0.02
SOHO.L Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC 10% 340 11.9 5.25% 0.10
SGRO.L SEGRO plc 20% 10,119 10.65 2.15% 0.55
DLN.L Derwent London Plc 20% 4,668 21.2 1.62% 0.65
Portfolio Average 27,612 17.6 3.58% 0.43
Market Cap Weighted Average 16.9 3.03% 0.57
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
54
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Description
BLND.L British Land Company PLC ORD Retail 5.5% dividend (sustainable), forward P/E ratio of 16.7
HMSO Hammerson PLC Retail Purely Yield and Value Play; Deep discount since 2H 2019;
Investors worrying the tail risk of the Brexit on Retail Portfolio; Yet,
the ongoing Sell-off of non-core assets; Consolidation of
resources refine focus on core business
PHP.L Primary Health Properties PLC Healthcare Large Market cap, stable business growth: squeezed £100mln out
to develop new healthcare premises in Ireland and the UK.
BBOXT.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC Industrial Benefiting from a shift towards online shopping
AGR.L Assura PLC Healthcare Large Market cap, leader in primary care real estate, strong
balance sheet
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
55
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
BLND.L British Land Company PLC ORD 20% 5,317 N.A. 5.56% 1.08
HMSO.L Hammerson PLC 20% 1,723 N.A. 11.50% 1.76
PHP.L Primary Health Properties PLC 20% 1,946 N.A. 3.68% 0.13
BBOX.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC 20% 2,441 10.2 4.79% 0.52
AGR.L Assura PLC 20% 1,923 22.9 3.45% -0.16
Portfolio Average 13,350 16.6 5.80% 0.70
Market Cap Weighted Average 15.8 5.61% 0.77
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
C-REITs
56
57
C-REIT Outlook
● C-REITs S&P/TSX REIT Index (SPTSRE:IND) 0.15% , slightly underperformed 0.20% of TSX
○ Investors taking comforts from Beijing’s measures towards the coronavirus
● Outperforming factors:
○ Low P/E, Market Cap
○ High yield, beta
○ Health Care REITs
● Underperforming factors:
○ High P/E, Market Cap
○ Low yield, beta
○ Specialized REITs
● Proposed strategy: i) Growth Portfolio; ii) prefer office/residential
57
58
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
59
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
60
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
APR.UN Automotive Properties Real Estate
Investment Trust
Specialized revenues expected to grow by 36% over the next
couple of years
BEI.UN Boardwalk REIT Residential High affo/ffo growths rate and rental growth
NWH.UN NorthWest Healthcare Properties
REIT
Healthcare Nice sector to be included with healthcare expense
growing faster than GDP, keep expanding new
markets (e.g. US)
D.UN Dream Office REIT Office Good fundamental, debt to assets lower than 40%
by selling off non core assets, ability to grow further
NVU.UN Northview Apartment REIT Residential using both strategic acquisitions and development
projects to grow the bottom line. Good fundamental
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
61
Growth Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
APR.UN Automotive Properties Real Estate
Investment Trust
20% 459 71.0 6.47% 0.93
BEI.UN Boardwalk REIT 10% 2,452 15.5 2.11% 0.43
NWH.UN NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT 30% 1,882 15.3 6.56% 0.76
D.UN Dream Office REIT 20% 1,839 16.3 3.07% 0.93
NVU.UN Northview Apartment REIT 20% 2,144 5.1 5.31% 1.01
Portfolio Average 8,776 24.6 5.15% 0.85
Market Cap Weighted Average 16.0 4.28% 0.77
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
62
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
GRT.UN Granite Real Estate
Investment Trust
Diversified Stable and well-diversified: Industrial, warehouse
and logistics. Focused in North America and Europe
REI.UN RioCan Real Estate
Investment Trust
retail Increasing mixed-use properties. Focused in
Canada six major cities, GTA (Toronto). Low debt-
to-assets ratio (below 45%)
HR.UN H&R Real Estate
Investment Trust
Diversified Undergoing several reallocation in 2019, need to be
monitored, office retail changing to residential in US,
stable cash flow
DIR.UN Dream Industrial Real
Estate Investment Trust
industrial Increased liquidity and reduced debt. Focused on
Canada and US.
NWH.UN Northwest Healthcare
Properties REIT
Speciality Worldwide owner including medical office, retirement
houses and hospitals + stable growth for the industry
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
63
Dividend Portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
GRT.UN Granite Real Estate Investment Trust 20% 3,928 9.5 4.06% 0.51
REI.UN RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust 30% 8,599 10.7 5.30% 0.54
HR.UN H&R Real Estate Investment Trust 10% 6,087 25.6 6.45% 0.64
DIR.UN Dream Industrial Real Estate
Investment Trust
15% 1,862 12.1 5.01% 0.83
NWH.UN Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT 25% 1,882 15.3 6.56% 0.76
Portfolio Average 22,358 13.3 5.44% 0.64
Market Cap Weighted Average 15.0 5.48% 0.60
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
US-REITs
64
65
US-REITs Review and Strategy
Weekly Review:
● US-REIT (VNQ) 2.29% outperformed SPX +1.06% due to (1) Surge in AMT; (2)
expectation on at least 1 rate cut in 2020
● Outperforming factors:
○ High Beta, Low Market Cap
○ High Dividend Yield
○ Residential Sector
● Underperforming factors:
○ Low Mark Low Dividend yield
○ Low Beta
○ Retail Sector
● Proposed strategy: i) Growth Portfolio; ii) Do not buy Hotel & Resort REITs yet
66
VNQ/SPX US-REIT
67
US10Y
68
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
69
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
70
US-REIT model portfolio
Growth portfolio Dividend portfolio
Name Stock code Name Stock code
American Tower AMT CoreCivic CXW
Wellltower WELL Realty Income Corporation O
Equinix EQIX Kimco Realty Corporation KIM
OUTFRONT MEDIA/d OUT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc. SKT
QTS Realty Trust, Inc QTS Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO
Prologis Inc PLD Newtek Business Services Corp. NEWT
Equity Lifestyle ELS AGNC Investment Corp AGNC
71
Growth portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
AMT American Tower Corp Tower Benefitting from 5G, diversified portfolio(global presence in US,EMEA,Asia, Latin America),
moat(barriers to entry by law, first mover advantage), limited land supply
PLD Prologis Inc Industrial Benefitting from the shift from traditional retail to e-commerce, strong tenant
base(Amazon,DHL,FedEx,UPS), M&A deals(Active Management), Expanding to
EQIX Equinix Data Center Largest data center in the world (economic of scale and the advantage of network effect),
moat(high barry to entry, first mover advantage), benefitting from many kind of advancement in
technology(big data, IoT, 5g, etc)
ELS Equity Lifestyle Residential One of the highest growth industry, still many room for growth, limited supply in a certain
extend, high growth of FFO
QTS QTS Realty Trust, Inc Data Center DIfferent focus from EQIX(interconnection), QTS focus on colocation, active management,
expanding to different countries, track record of growth in leasing rate
WELL Welltower Inc Healthcare Increase in the population of elderly + good economy→ increase the spending in healthcare
sector, well diversified portfolio
OUT Outfront Media Billboard Limited supply( near zero-rate of growth) and consistent demand, significant regulatory barriers
to entry, steady growth in ffo
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
72
Growth portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
AMT American Tower Corp 20% 105750 52.28 1.7% 0.42
PLD Prologis Inc 20% 68810 37.81 2.28% 1.10
EQIX Equinix 15% 51680 77.21 1.63% 0.65
ELS Equity Lifestyle 15% 13270 53.05 1.68% 0.23
QTS QTS Realty Trust, Inc 10% 3400 265 3.01% 0.72
WELL Welltower Inc 10% 34090 49.97 4.11% 0.22
OUT Outfront Media 10% 4440 23.91 4.69% 1.10
Portfolio Average 281,440 71.45 2.47% 0.64
Market Cap Weighted Average 55.20 2.18% 0.61
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
73
Dividend portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
CXW CoreCivic Prison Very unique and special sector, slow market size growth but very stable, getting more
deals from the govt. since last year.
O Realty Income Corporation Retail Realty Income (O) is a benchmark in the real estate investment trust (REIT) space
with its monthly dividends and steady performance
KIM Kimco Realty Corporation Retail Kimco has been one of the most innovative Retail REITs successfully managing the
challenges posed by brick-and-mortar real estate. The stock has recovered since its multi-year
low last year and seems fairly valued at the moment.
SKT Tanger Factory Outlet
Centers
Retail No department store exposure
High occupancy always above 95%
Low occupancy cost compared to malls
TCO Taubman Centers Retail Being acquired
NEWT Newtek Business Services
Corp.
BDC Newtek Business Services is a generous and consistent dividend payer, and its stock price
has jumped 30% in 2019. NewTek is a rising star with a unique business model, and despite
its size, has garnered increasing positive attention from investors.
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp Mortgage Their profit is a function of their cost of debt, relative to the performance of the assets they
hold. Since their cost of debt is very closely related to the Federal Funds rate, when the
Federal Reserve cuts the rate, they benefit.
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
74
Dividend portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
CXW CoreCivic 20% 1998 10.6 10.5% 0.64
O Realty Income Corporation 13.3% 26099 62.3 3.48% 0.22
KIM Kimco Realty Corporation 13.3% 8507 24.6 5.69% 0.82
SKT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers 13.3% 1277 14.82 10.4% 0.55
TCO Taubman Centers
NEWT Newtek Business Services Corp. 20% 422 - 10.1% 0.97
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp 20% 10293 16.5 10.1% 0.42
Portfolio Average 8100 18.95 8.74% 0.62
Market Cap Weighted Average 42.01 5.80% 0.40
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
HK-REITs
75
76
HK-REITs Review and Strategy
Weekly Review:
● HSI REIT index 0.38% underperformed TRACKER FUND 2.97% due to (1) weak
fundamental
● Outperforming factors:
○ Low dividend yield
○ Low P/E
○ Middle Market Cap
○ Retail Sector
● Underperforming factors:
○ Big Market Cap
○ Middle dividend yield
○ High D/E
○ Hotel Sector
● Proposed strategy: i) sell ii)avoid hotel sector
77
Watchlist: Weekly Performance
78
Watchlist: Factors Analysis
79
Growth portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
823 Link REIT Diversified Recently stepped into Foreign market, room for growth
Highest level of growth rate in DPU for consecutive 5 years
Decrease the geographical risk
778 Fortune REIT Retail It holds the mall mainly located in middle-class, which imply a
higher level of growth
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
80
Growth portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market
Cap (US$
mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
823 Link REIT 80% 21,019 26.0 3.90% 0.49
778 Fortune REIT 20% 2,213 17.7 5.80% 0.41
Portfolio Average 89,929 24.6 4.28% 0.47
Market Cap Weighted Average 25.2 4.08% 0.48
Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
81
Dividend portfolio
Ticker Name Industry Reasons
778 Fortune REIT Retail Track record in growth of dividend, high payout
ratio, defensive portfolio
2778 Champion REITs Diversified Stable dividend, good properties location
435 Sunlight REITs Diversified Relatively High yield, diversified portfolio
405 Yue Xiu REITs Retail Relatively High yield, stable dividend with growth
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
82
Dividend portfolio
Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap
(US$ mn)
PE ratio Yield Beta
778 Fortune REIT 35% 2213 17.67 5.8% 0.41
2778 Champion REITs 35% 3538 17.54 5.53% 0.73
435 Sunlight REITs 15% 1035 18.22 5.8% 0.47
405 Yue Xiu REITs 15% 2079 20.74 6.24% 0.42
Portfolio Average 1805 74.17 5.77% 0.53
Market Cap Weighted Average ??? 5.80% 0.55
Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
Company Introduction
Tritax Big Box (BBOX)
8320200212
84
Tritax Big Box (BBOX) - Intro
- UK’s pre-eminent owner of larger scale logistics real estate, with a portfolio unmatched in quality in
the UK quoted real estate sector.
- Invest in and manage income-producing Big Box assets and Pre-Let Forward Funded Developments.
- acquire land suitable for logistics use (Pre-let Forward Funded Development and a limited amount of
speculative development)
- Customers: logistics, manufacturing, consumer products, retail and automotive
Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
85
Comparison with Index
- Outperforming the REIT index
Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
86
Portfolio
- well diversified by size, geography and tenant
- Diverse customer base
- Valuations mainly from foundation assets
Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
87
Financial Highlights
- Low vacancy rate (1%)
- target profit on cost: 30%
Key Performance Indicator
1. Total Return: 0.42%
2. Weighted average unexpired lease term (WAULT): 14.3years
Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
88
Stock movement - Short term target MA250(147.4)
Source: Tradingview
Company Introduction
SafeHold US-REIT (SAFE)
89
90
SafeHold Inc (Ground Lease REIT) - Intro
- Ground lease: agreement in which a tenant is permitted to develop a piece of property
during the lease period, after which the land and all improvements are turned over to
the property owner
- The only Ground-Lease focused REIT in US
- Diversified Tenors of Properties: multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed-
use properties in major markets
- Outperforming for 3 months, with 47.9% Return
- Last month, 22.19% Return
91
Benefit of Ground Lease
For SafeHold For Tenants
Much Lower Capital Requirement of Developing Properties
(Only Need to Buy The Land)
Avoids the large upfront capital expenditure of buying land.
The tenant is responsible for paying property taxes,
insurance, and maintenance expenses
The lease is typically for several decades at a minimum
(Predictable and fixed cost)
The lease is typically for several decades at a minimum
(Stable Income)
Reduced lease payments, as opposed to leasing both land
and a building.
After the lease expires, any buildings or other property
improvements belong to the landlord
(Significantly Higher Value of Property after lease)
92
Benefit of Ground Lease
Source: SafeHold 2018 Interim Report
93
Portfolio (From latest Report Q3)
Source: SafeHold 2019 Q3 Report
94
Recent Movement:
- 23 Dec 2019 Closes $180 Million Ground Lease In New York City
- 12 Dec 2019 Closes A New $285 Million Ground Lease In New York City
- 2 Dec 2019 Closes Approximately $620 Million Ground In New York City
- 7 Nov 2019 Closes $275 Million Manhattan Ground Lease In New York City
→ Total: $1.35B of Contracts Signed in Q4
Source: JLL Report Released Oct 2019
Source: Commercial Real Estate
Development Association
95
Key Financial Comparison (Till latest Report Q3)
- Repositioning since 2018, unrecognized
- Sounding Annual Report of 2018 (Released Feb 2019)→ Price soar since
- “Safety, Income & Growth Inc.” Rebrands as “Safehold Inc” in Feb 2019
96
Stock Movement - wait for the consolidation to enter
- Attention:
Earnings Call on
13/2/2020
Before Market
Company Introduction
GLP J-REIT (TSE 3281)
97
98
GLP J-REIT (TSE 3281)
● Industrial REITs
● Top 5 outperformer (5
days, 1 month, 3 month)
in proprietary model
● 15 years experiences of
investing in logistics
facilities
● Focuses on Modern
Logistics Facilities (MLF)
Source: Report
99
Portfolio Summary
Source: Official Website
100SourceSource: Official Website; Report
Profitability
101
Portfolio Features
Source: Report
102
Opportunities ● Steady growth in Japanese
3PL(third party logistics) and
E-Commerce Market
● Limited supply of modern
logistics facilities
Source: Official Website
Sector: Storage REITs
10320200212
104
Storage REITs - Unique Features
● Operating efficiency and relative simplicity
● Properties can breakeven at sub-50% occupancy rates with low management
● Leases are typically short-term (one year), but nearly half of renters lease their
space for more than two years
● 70% of customers are residential, with the other 30% split between businesses
105
Add title
Source: XXX
Please add back title and source for each page and graph
106
Demand and Supply
● New supply is added in a furious rate because of the good business
● Storage demand correlates closely with job growth and multifamily fundamentals,
which continues to exceed expectations
● Strong demand from renter households and businesses has kept rents and
occupancy generally flat in the face of ample supply
107
Self storage trend
● rent growth and
underlying fundamentals
have stabilized over the
last several quarters
● PPI, historical correlation
with same-store rent
growth has signaled
positive momentum for
the sector since early 2018
Source: XXX
108
Add titles
Source: XXX
109
Downside
● Too much supply growth may bring a impact to the sector
● Low pricing power and rent may see flat
● Storage needs may change in future years by technology
110
Add title
Source: XXX
111
Add title
Please expand the row so we can see all words

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Invbots-global reit 20200212

  • 3. 3 Portfolio Position as of 5:15pm, 12 Feb, 2020
  • 4. 4 Geography US 23.09% AU 10.84% SG 9.10% HK 5.78% JP 4.67% UK 3.05% EU 3.65% CA 3.76% Total 63.94% Sector Industrial 15.75% Retail 11.88% Cell Tower 7.22% Healthcare 5.98% Residential 9.00% Specialty 4.86% Diversified 4.01% Hotel 0.00% Office 5.24% Total 63.94% Portfolio Position as of 5:15pm, 12 Feb, 2020
  • 5. 5 Summary of transaction in last week ● Bought 50 share of SAFE (US Speciality) ● Bought 100 share of SMU (CA Industrial) ● Bought 50 share of MI (CA Office) ● Bought 30 share of XIOR (EU Residential) ● Bought 100 share of SGRO (UK Industrial) ● Bought 1 share of 8787 (JP Office) ● Sold 300 share of BBOX(UK Industrial) ● Sold 1 share of 8985 (JP Hotel)
  • 6. 6 Global REITs Return Local currency USD Source: data from UBS
  • 7. 7 Country Currency/Fundamental view Country Outlook Currency Fundamental Rationale United States Bullish Appreciate Bullish Japan Bullish Appreciate Neutral Supply-demand in the office sector remains tight, but rent rises are not accelerating, pace of rent rises is likely to slow further towards the end of 2021 Australia Bullish Appreciate Neutral Continued demand for Industrial assets, expect Office market to outperform given limited new supply and very strong demand for assets Europe Bullish Depreciate Bullish Strong industrial and residential market due to potential rate cut, cautious on retail Singapore Bearish Depreciate Bearish Retail and Hospitality sectors widely affected by close down of borders to Mainland Chinese visitors United Kingdom Bullish Appreciate Neutral Bright outlook towards London office market, limited supply and high pre-leasing: just 28% of developments currently hit the market speculatively, city rents are expected to rise, post-trade uncertainties linger Canada Bullish Appreciate Bullish Hong Kong Bearish Appreciate Bearish Wuhan Pneumonie - retail sales expected to decline by 30% YoY in Jan, not expecting recovery due to ongoing social unrest, narrowing price differentials between China/HK and macro uncertainties Source: Invbots analysis
  • 8. 8 Allocation Updates Country Outlook Market Cap (USD) Current Allocation % stock/cash United States Bullish 1,337,343,183,818 35% Japan Bullish 156,477,133,890 15% Australia Bullish 104,301,083,558 15% Europe Bullish 141,396,332,188 15% Singapore Bearish 80,709,388,924 5% United Kingdom Bullish 87,966,851,538 15% Canada Bullish 62,282,769,175 5% Hong Kong Bearish 35,121,369,455 5% Source: Invbots analysis
  • 14. 14 A-REITs Review & Strategy Weekly Review: ● A-REITs +0.97% underperformed ASX +1.46% due to (1) repricing/rebound of the equity market towards coronavirus (2) rebound of 10y Gov Yield ● Outperforming factors: ○ Large Mkt Cap ○ High Valuation (High P/E, Low Yield) ○ Industrial REITs ● Underperforming factors: ○ Small Mkt Cap ○ Low Valuation (Low P/E, High Yield) ○ Health Care REITs Proposed strategy: (1) Growth Portfolio (2) Avoid Lodging/Retail; Prefer Residential/Industrial Source: Invbots analysis
  • 15. 15Source: Tradingview REIT Index (XPJ) +0.97% / Equity Index (XJO) +1.46%
  • 16. 16Source: Tradingview REIT Index (XPJ) +0.97% / Australian 10y Gov Yield +ve
  • 17. 17Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots Watchlist: Weekly Performance
  • 18. 18 Watchlist: Factors Analysis Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 19. 19 Ticker Name Industry Reasons INA Ingenia Communities Group Residential - Housing market is rebounding due to rate cut. Melbourne & Sydney house price reaching all time high - Rather resilient to coronavirus compared to other commercial properties CHC Charter Hall Group Diversified - Diversified between Office, Industrial, and Retail with strong FFO growth CIP Centuria Industrial REIT Industrial - E-commerce demand is resilient to coronavirus (if not benefited) and remains strong - GMG targets mega-size properties and focuses on international expansion - CIP targets mid to small-size properties and located near metropolitan areas in Australia GMG Goodman Group Industrial ARF Arena REIT Healthcare - Early Learning (85%), Healthcare (15%), strong momentum recently - WALE of 14.1yrs and Occupancy of 100% Source: Invbots analysis Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 20. 20 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 21. 21 Ticker Name Industry Reasons LEP ALE Property Group Specialised - Increasing HY rental revenue and profits - None of the properties damaged by bushfires SCP Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group Retail - Cuts rental costs to fill in vacancies - Portfolio sale: loses money on one asset but does well for the other four GOZ Growthpoint Properties Diversified - High occupancy rate (98%), office and industrial REIT (Good prospects) VCX Vicinity Centres Retail - Improving rental revenue and profits CLW Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Diversified - Benefitted from $1.4b acquisitions, increasing the portfolio's average lease expiry Source: Invbots analysis Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 22. 22 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 24. 24 EU-REITs Review & Strategy Weekly Review: ● EU-REITs +1.97% underperformed STOXX 600 +2.87% due to repricing/rebound of the equity market towards coronavirus ● Outperforming factors: ○ High Div Yld ○ Small Mkt Cap, High P/E ○ Healthcare REITs ● Underperforming factors: ○ High D/E ○ Large Mkt Cap, Low P/E ○ Retail REITs Proposed strategy: (1) Growth Portfolio (2) Monitoring potential buying opportunities Source: Invbots analysis
  • 25. 25Source: Tradingview REIT Index (REITE) +1.97% / Equity Index (STOXX) +2.87%
  • 26. 26Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots Watchlist: Weekly Performance
  • 27. 27 Watchlist: Factors Analysis Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 28. 28Source: Invbots analysis Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons YGGC.MC General de Galeries Comerciales SOCIMI Retail Will look into fundamentals and make further updates next week WDPP.BR Warehouses de Pauw Comm VA Industrial COFB.BR Cofinimmo SA Diversified XIOR.BR Xior Student Housing Residential FLYP.PA Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise SA Office
  • 29. 29 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 30. 30 Ticker Name Industry Reasons COFB.BR Cofinimmo NV/SA Diversified Selected due to statistics, criteria including: - Market cap > 1b euro - Gearing ratio < 100% - Dividend yield > 3% - Total return outperformed EU-REITs average in 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y Will look into fundamentals and make further updates next week FLYP.PA Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise SA Office S76.F STORE Capital Corporation Diversified GFCP.PA Gecina SA Diversified PRODr.AT Prontea Ependyseon S Aknt Prs AE Diversified Source: Invbots analysis Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 31. 31 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 33. 33 S-REIT Review and Strategy ● S-REITs +2.0% outperform Equity Index 1.51% due to ● Outperforming factors: ○ High beta (>75%) ○ Low PE (<25%) ○ High yield (>75%) ○ High D/E (>75%) ○ Office sector ● Underperforming factors: ○ Low yield (<50%) ○ High P/E (>75%) ○ Hotel/Resorts Sector ○ Retail sector ● Proposed strategy: industrial, health care and office Source: Invbots analysis
  • 34. 34 Watchlist: Weekly Performance Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 35. 35 Watchlist: Factors Analysis Source: data from Refinitiv, analyzed by Invbots
  • 36. 36 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons ME8U Mapletree Industrial Trust Industrial ● Potential inorganic growth strategy in the US coupled with a focus on redevelopments in Singapore - Manager’s well-timed acquisitions and completions/initiations of new development projects underpin a steady growth profile ● Improvements in operating metrics and conductive cost of capital exhibit visible acquistion path - redevelopment of its “landbank” of older flatted factories like Kolam Ayer cluster should drive medium-term growth C2PU Parkwaylife REIT Health Care ● Expect positive outcome from extension of lease ● Resilient due to its long WALE of 6.5 years AJBU Keppel DC REIT Specialized (Data Centre) ● Strong proxy to growing demand for data centre space ● Improvement in occupancy rate to 94.9% (there’s still room for improvement) ● Overall WALE of 8.6 years remains healthy K71U Keppel REIT Office ● Downside mitigated by strong positive rental reversions with new signing rents in 4Q19 higher than current Grade A core CBD rents ● Divestment of Bugis Junction Tower has generated some buffer in terms of lowering overall cost of debt and offering higher capital distributions A17U Ascendas Trust Industrial ● Rental growth momentum supporting DPU recovery ● Revenue rose 5.9%, mainly by contributions from 28 new US and 2 SG business parks Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio Source: Invbots analysis
  • 37. 37 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta ME8U Mapletree Industrial Trust 25% 4,541 21.62 4.60% 0.28 C2PU Parkwaylife REIT 25% 1,553 26.18 3.85% 0.31 AJBU Keppel DC REIT 15% 2,862 25.31 3.70% 0.22 K71U Keppel REIT 25% 3,122 28.11 4.57% 0.51 A17U Ascendas Trust 10% 8,509 20.15 4.95% 0.41 Portfolio Average 4,118 24.27 4.34% 0.34 Market Cap Weighted Average 22.85 4.56% 0.35 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio Source: Invbots analysis
  • 38. 38 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons HMN Ascott Residence Trust Residential ● Steady increase in DPU. ● Has limited exposure to the coronavirus. ● Refinanced debt at lower rates ● Strong balance sheet (improving profit and revenues) J91U ESR REIT Industrial ● Steady increase in DPU ● Tenant retention rate: 69.6%, WALE is 3.8 years ● Higher than average occupancy rate (90.6%) CNNU Cromwell Europe Industrial ● Increase in DPU over the past year ● Recent acquisitions of 3 German assets ● 39.2% increase in distributable income T82U Suntec REIT Office ● Expecting firm rental reversions Singapore office portfolio in 2020 ● City Mall has also exhibited resilience despite retail headwinds ● Increased exposure to Australia also provides it with a more diversified income stream Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio Source: Invbots analysis
  • 39. 39 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta HMN Ascott Residence Trust 30% 2,825 19.45 6.06% 0.25 J91U ESR REIT 20% 1,371 14.82 7.30% 0.37 CNNU Cromwell Europe 20% 1,585 14.93 6.84% 0.36 T82U Suntec REIT 30% 3,691 23.97 5.28% 0.58 Portfolio Average 1,894 18.29 6.36% 0.39 Market Cap Weighted Average 19.78 6.06% 0.41 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio Source: Invbots analysis
  • 41. 41 J-REIT Review and Strategy ● J-REITs 0.5% , slightly underperformed 0.94% of TOPIX due to 1) Rumoured completion of the vaccines for Coronavirus in US 2) investment sentiments in US / Japan propelled by the strong US Employment figures (Beat by 65k) 3) Yet, The recent measures proposed by Japan Government to combat against the virus maintain tail risk. ● Outperforming factors: ○ High market cap (0-25%) ○ Mid Yield (50%-75%) ○ High PE (0%-25%) ○ Mid Beta (25-50%) ○ Industrial Sector ● Underperforming factors: ○ High Beta (0-25%) ○ High Yield (>75%) ○ Hotel & Resort Sector ● Proposed strategy: Long large cap and Industrial REIT on increasing production scale of medical equipments/medicals products (Facemask)
  • 44. 44 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons 8961 Mori Trust Sogo REIT Inc Office REITs Owned 15 properties in different major spots in Japan(80% in Tokyo), maintained 99.9% Occupancy rate on the overall portfolio 3292 Aeon REIT Investment Corp Retail REITs 100% Occupancy rate, Stable DPU and Operating Revenue, trend, 3rd largest Retail REIT in JP 8987 Japan Excellent Inc Office REITs DPU growth reached a 5Y CAGR of 2.67%, major tenants are large corp. (Toshiba, Hitachi etc), 50% of the buildings are in Area I, with occupancy rate 99.4% 8967 Japan Logistics Fund Inc Industrial REITs AA Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, 99%+ occupancy rate since last year, DPU growth reached a 5Y CAGR of 2.37% 3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT Industrial REITs AA- Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, maintained 98%+ occupancy rate since 2018, held 16 properties in Tokyo and Osaka, Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 45. 45 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta 8961 Mori Trust Sogo REIT Inc 20% 259,380 26.6 3.79% -0.01 3292 Aeon REIT Investment Corp 20% 271,069 23.8 4.25% 0.12 8987 Japan Excellent Inc 20% 263,131 35.0 2.98% -0.06 8967 Japan Logistics Fund Inc 20% 260,480 29.4 3.38% -0.06 3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT 20% 242,887 31.1 3.58% -0.13 Portfolio Average 1,296,947 29.2 3.60% 0.02 Market Cap Weighted Average 29.1 3.60% 0.03 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 46. 46 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons 8984 Daiwa House Reit Investment Corp Diversified REITs Largest residential reit in JP, stable and healthy in DPU, Net Income and total assets, LTV kept ~40% 3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT Industrial REITs AA- Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, maintained 98%+ occupancy rate since 2018, held 16 properties in Tokyo and Osaka, 3281 GLP J-REIT Industrial REITs AA Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, DPU growth reached a 5Y CAGR of 2.29%, has been expanding the portfolio from 62 properties in 2017 to 75 in 2019 3296 Nippon REIT Diversified REITs Diversified resilient portfolio in office, residential and retail, portfolio occupancy rate maintained at ~99%, Long- term issuer rating: A 3249 Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment Corp Industrial REITs AA Rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency, Held 72 properties with occupancy rate 100%, healthy DPU growth, Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 47. 47 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta 8984 Daiwa House Reit Investment Corp 20% 604,862 32.8 3.91% 0.00 3466 LaSalle Logiport REIT 25% 242,887 31.1 3.58% -0.13 3281 GLP J-REIT 20% 575,013 30.8 3.45% -0.38 3296 Nippon REIT 15% 221,366 27.1 3.57% -0.17 3249 Industrial & Infrastructure Fund Investment Corp 20% 324,867 30.2 3.48% 0.06 Portfolio Average 1,968,995 30.6 3.60% 0.01 Market Cap Weighted Average 30.9 3.62% 0.01 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 49. 49 UK-REITs Review and Strategy Weekly Review: ● UK-REIT, 1.2% slightly outperformed 0.8% of FTSE 100 due to 1) Brexit Overhang subsided 2) Office rent keeps breaking high ● Outperforming factors: ○ High Market Cap ○ Mid yield, D/E, PE ○ Office REITs ● Underperforming factors: ○ Low Market cap , PE , Yield ○ High beta ○ Retail REIT ● Proposed strategy: i) Prefer Office / Industrial on Office rent and E-commerce uptrend iii) Bottom-fishing some retail REITs with high yield.
  • 52. 52 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons BBOXT.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC Industrial E-commerce basket GPOR.L Great Portland Estates PLC Office London-focused → experience high demand for its enviably-located portfolio of West End commercial properties LAND.L Land Securities Group Plc Ord Diversified Landsec’s £3bn pipeline of development opportunities will shift its emphasis further towards the office market. It continues to experience high demand – particularly in London. CSH.L Civitas Social Housing PLC Residential Acquired 9 new properties within the latest three-month period. Investment opportunities remains robust and schemes and properties brought by Civitas directly(active management) SOHO.L Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC Residential Growing business: Acquired 18 Properties in Oct 2019. Bought 40 Care Properties in Sep 2019. Bought 5 Properties in July 2019. SGRO.L SEGRO plc Industrial Owns range of warehouses in UK. Bet on UK E-commerce penetration rate (+19% Y-o-Y in 2019). Structural uptrend of e-commerce will continue benefit SGRO. NPI +8% yoy in last two years. DLN.L Derwent London Plc Office Subsided tail risk of Brexit after election. Top Quality Management constantly delivering market outperformance. Recent acquisition of the Brixton's Blue Star (38.1m Pound Sterlings). Bet on significant rebound of London office market and NAV Growth. Implied Yield of 4%. Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 53. 53 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta BBOX.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC 15% 2,441 10.2 4.84% 0.52 GPOR.L Great Portland Estates PLC 10% 2,361 41.5 1.35% 0.17 LAND.L Land Securities Group Plc Ord 15% 7,074 N.A. 4.86% 0.76 CSH.L Civitas Social Housing PLC 10% 608 22.9 5.41% 0.02 SOHO.L Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC 10% 340 11.9 5.25% 0.10 SGRO.L SEGRO plc 20% 10,119 10.65 2.15% 0.55 DLN.L Derwent London Plc 20% 4,668 21.2 1.62% 0.65 Portfolio Average 27,612 17.6 3.58% 0.43 Market Cap Weighted Average 16.9 3.03% 0.57 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 54. 54 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Description BLND.L British Land Company PLC ORD Retail 5.5% dividend (sustainable), forward P/E ratio of 16.7 HMSO Hammerson PLC Retail Purely Yield and Value Play; Deep discount since 2H 2019; Investors worrying the tail risk of the Brexit on Retail Portfolio; Yet, the ongoing Sell-off of non-core assets; Consolidation of resources refine focus on core business PHP.L Primary Health Properties PLC Healthcare Large Market cap, stable business growth: squeezed £100mln out to develop new healthcare premises in Ireland and the UK. BBOXT.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC Industrial Benefiting from a shift towards online shopping AGR.L Assura PLC Healthcare Large Market cap, leader in primary care real estate, strong balance sheet Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 55. 55 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta BLND.L British Land Company PLC ORD 20% 5,317 N.A. 5.56% 1.08 HMSO.L Hammerson PLC 20% 1,723 N.A. 11.50% 1.76 PHP.L Primary Health Properties PLC 20% 1,946 N.A. 3.68% 0.13 BBOX.L Tritax Big Box REIT PLC 20% 2,441 10.2 4.79% 0.52 AGR.L Assura PLC 20% 1,923 22.9 3.45% -0.16 Portfolio Average 13,350 16.6 5.80% 0.70 Market Cap Weighted Average 15.8 5.61% 0.77 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 57. 57 C-REIT Outlook ● C-REITs S&P/TSX REIT Index (SPTSRE:IND) 0.15% , slightly underperformed 0.20% of TSX ○ Investors taking comforts from Beijing’s measures towards the coronavirus ● Outperforming factors: ○ Low P/E, Market Cap ○ High yield, beta ○ Health Care REITs ● Underperforming factors: ○ High P/E, Market Cap ○ Low yield, beta ○ Specialized REITs ● Proposed strategy: i) Growth Portfolio; ii) prefer office/residential 57
  • 60. 60 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons APR.UN Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Specialized revenues expected to grow by 36% over the next couple of years BEI.UN Boardwalk REIT Residential High affo/ffo growths rate and rental growth NWH.UN NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT Healthcare Nice sector to be included with healthcare expense growing faster than GDP, keep expanding new markets (e.g. US) D.UN Dream Office REIT Office Good fundamental, debt to assets lower than 40% by selling off non core assets, ability to grow further NVU.UN Northview Apartment REIT Residential using both strategic acquisitions and development projects to grow the bottom line. Good fundamental Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 61. 61 Growth Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta APR.UN Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust 20% 459 71.0 6.47% 0.93 BEI.UN Boardwalk REIT 10% 2,452 15.5 2.11% 0.43 NWH.UN NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT 30% 1,882 15.3 6.56% 0.76 D.UN Dream Office REIT 20% 1,839 16.3 3.07% 0.93 NVU.UN Northview Apartment REIT 20% 2,144 5.1 5.31% 1.01 Portfolio Average 8,776 24.6 5.15% 0.85 Market Cap Weighted Average 16.0 4.28% 0.77 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 62. 62 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons GRT.UN Granite Real Estate Investment Trust Diversified Stable and well-diversified: Industrial, warehouse and logistics. Focused in North America and Europe REI.UN RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust retail Increasing mixed-use properties. Focused in Canada six major cities, GTA (Toronto). Low debt- to-assets ratio (below 45%) HR.UN H&R Real Estate Investment Trust Diversified Undergoing several reallocation in 2019, need to be monitored, office retail changing to residential in US, stable cash flow DIR.UN Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust industrial Increased liquidity and reduced debt. Focused on Canada and US. NWH.UN Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT Speciality Worldwide owner including medical office, retirement houses and hospitals + stable growth for the industry Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 63. 63 Dividend Portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta GRT.UN Granite Real Estate Investment Trust 20% 3,928 9.5 4.06% 0.51 REI.UN RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust 30% 8,599 10.7 5.30% 0.54 HR.UN H&R Real Estate Investment Trust 10% 6,087 25.6 6.45% 0.64 DIR.UN Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust 15% 1,862 12.1 5.01% 0.83 NWH.UN Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT 25% 1,882 15.3 6.56% 0.76 Portfolio Average 22,358 13.3 5.44% 0.64 Market Cap Weighted Average 15.0 5.48% 0.60 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 65. 65 US-REITs Review and Strategy Weekly Review: ● US-REIT (VNQ) 2.29% outperformed SPX +1.06% due to (1) Surge in AMT; (2) expectation on at least 1 rate cut in 2020 ● Outperforming factors: ○ High Beta, Low Market Cap ○ High Dividend Yield ○ Residential Sector ● Underperforming factors: ○ Low Mark Low Dividend yield ○ Low Beta ○ Retail Sector ● Proposed strategy: i) Growth Portfolio; ii) Do not buy Hotel & Resort REITs yet
  • 70. 70 US-REIT model portfolio Growth portfolio Dividend portfolio Name Stock code Name Stock code American Tower AMT CoreCivic CXW Wellltower WELL Realty Income Corporation O Equinix EQIX Kimco Realty Corporation KIM OUTFRONT MEDIA/d OUT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc. SKT QTS Realty Trust, Inc QTS Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO Prologis Inc PLD Newtek Business Services Corp. NEWT Equity Lifestyle ELS AGNC Investment Corp AGNC
  • 71. 71 Growth portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons AMT American Tower Corp Tower Benefitting from 5G, diversified portfolio(global presence in US,EMEA,Asia, Latin America), moat(barriers to entry by law, first mover advantage), limited land supply PLD Prologis Inc Industrial Benefitting from the shift from traditional retail to e-commerce, strong tenant base(Amazon,DHL,FedEx,UPS), M&A deals(Active Management), Expanding to EQIX Equinix Data Center Largest data center in the world (economic of scale and the advantage of network effect), moat(high barry to entry, first mover advantage), benefitting from many kind of advancement in technology(big data, IoT, 5g, etc) ELS Equity Lifestyle Residential One of the highest growth industry, still many room for growth, limited supply in a certain extend, high growth of FFO QTS QTS Realty Trust, Inc Data Center DIfferent focus from EQIX(interconnection), QTS focus on colocation, active management, expanding to different countries, track record of growth in leasing rate WELL Welltower Inc Healthcare Increase in the population of elderly + good economy→ increase the spending in healthcare sector, well diversified portfolio OUT Outfront Media Billboard Limited supply( near zero-rate of growth) and consistent demand, significant regulatory barriers to entry, steady growth in ffo Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 72. 72 Growth portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta AMT American Tower Corp 20% 105750 52.28 1.7% 0.42 PLD Prologis Inc 20% 68810 37.81 2.28% 1.10 EQIX Equinix 15% 51680 77.21 1.63% 0.65 ELS Equity Lifestyle 15% 13270 53.05 1.68% 0.23 QTS QTS Realty Trust, Inc 10% 3400 265 3.01% 0.72 WELL Welltower Inc 10% 34090 49.97 4.11% 0.22 OUT Outfront Media 10% 4440 23.91 4.69% 1.10 Portfolio Average 281,440 71.45 2.47% 0.64 Market Cap Weighted Average 55.20 2.18% 0.61 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 73. 73 Dividend portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons CXW CoreCivic Prison Very unique and special sector, slow market size growth but very stable, getting more deals from the govt. since last year. O Realty Income Corporation Retail Realty Income (O) is a benchmark in the real estate investment trust (REIT) space with its monthly dividends and steady performance KIM Kimco Realty Corporation Retail Kimco has been one of the most innovative Retail REITs successfully managing the challenges posed by brick-and-mortar real estate. The stock has recovered since its multi-year low last year and seems fairly valued at the moment. SKT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Retail No department store exposure High occupancy always above 95% Low occupancy cost compared to malls TCO Taubman Centers Retail Being acquired NEWT Newtek Business Services Corp. BDC Newtek Business Services is a generous and consistent dividend payer, and its stock price has jumped 30% in 2019. NewTek is a rising star with a unique business model, and despite its size, has garnered increasing positive attention from investors. AGNC AGNC Investment Corp Mortgage Their profit is a function of their cost of debt, relative to the performance of the assets they hold. Since their cost of debt is very closely related to the Federal Funds rate, when the Federal Reserve cuts the rate, they benefit. Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 74. 74 Dividend portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta CXW CoreCivic 20% 1998 10.6 10.5% 0.64 O Realty Income Corporation 13.3% 26099 62.3 3.48% 0.22 KIM Kimco Realty Corporation 13.3% 8507 24.6 5.69% 0.82 SKT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers 13.3% 1277 14.82 10.4% 0.55 TCO Taubman Centers NEWT Newtek Business Services Corp. 20% 422 - 10.1% 0.97 AGNC AGNC Investment Corp 20% 10293 16.5 10.1% 0.42 Portfolio Average 8100 18.95 8.74% 0.62 Market Cap Weighted Average 42.01 5.80% 0.40 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 76. 76 HK-REITs Review and Strategy Weekly Review: ● HSI REIT index 0.38% underperformed TRACKER FUND 2.97% due to (1) weak fundamental ● Outperforming factors: ○ Low dividend yield ○ Low P/E ○ Middle Market Cap ○ Retail Sector ● Underperforming factors: ○ Big Market Cap ○ Middle dividend yield ○ High D/E ○ Hotel Sector ● Proposed strategy: i) sell ii)avoid hotel sector
  • 79. 79 Growth portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons 823 Link REIT Diversified Recently stepped into Foreign market, room for growth Highest level of growth rate in DPU for consecutive 5 years Decrease the geographical risk 778 Fortune REIT Retail It holds the mall mainly located in middle-class, which imply a higher level of growth Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 80. 80 Growth portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta 823 Link REIT 80% 21,019 26.0 3.90% 0.49 778 Fortune REIT 20% 2,213 17.7 5.80% 0.41 Portfolio Average 89,929 24.6 4.28% 0.47 Market Cap Weighted Average 25.2 4.08% 0.48 Model Portfolio: Growth Portfolio
  • 81. 81 Dividend portfolio Ticker Name Industry Reasons 778 Fortune REIT Retail Track record in growth of dividend, high payout ratio, defensive portfolio 2778 Champion REITs Diversified Stable dividend, good properties location 435 Sunlight REITs Diversified Relatively High yield, diversified portfolio 405 Yue Xiu REITs Retail Relatively High yield, stable dividend with growth Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 82. 82 Dividend portfolio Ticker Name Weighting Market Cap (US$ mn) PE ratio Yield Beta 778 Fortune REIT 35% 2213 17.67 5.8% 0.41 2778 Champion REITs 35% 3538 17.54 5.53% 0.73 435 Sunlight REITs 15% 1035 18.22 5.8% 0.47 405 Yue Xiu REITs 15% 2079 20.74 6.24% 0.42 Portfolio Average 1805 74.17 5.77% 0.53 Market Cap Weighted Average ??? 5.80% 0.55 Model Portfolio: Dividend Portfolio
  • 83. Company Introduction Tritax Big Box (BBOX) 8320200212
  • 84. 84 Tritax Big Box (BBOX) - Intro - UK’s pre-eminent owner of larger scale logistics real estate, with a portfolio unmatched in quality in the UK quoted real estate sector. - Invest in and manage income-producing Big Box assets and Pre-Let Forward Funded Developments. - acquire land suitable for logistics use (Pre-let Forward Funded Development and a limited amount of speculative development) - Customers: logistics, manufacturing, consumer products, retail and automotive Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
  • 85. 85 Comparison with Index - Outperforming the REIT index Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
  • 86. 86 Portfolio - well diversified by size, geography and tenant - Diverse customer base - Valuations mainly from foundation assets Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
  • 87. 87 Financial Highlights - Low vacancy rate (1%) - target profit on cost: 30% Key Performance Indicator 1. Total Return: 0.42% 2. Weighted average unexpired lease term (WAULT): 14.3years Source: BBOX Interim report 2019
  • 88. 88 Stock movement - Short term target MA250(147.4) Source: Tradingview
  • 90. 90 SafeHold Inc (Ground Lease REIT) - Intro - Ground lease: agreement in which a tenant is permitted to develop a piece of property during the lease period, after which the land and all improvements are turned over to the property owner - The only Ground-Lease focused REIT in US - Diversified Tenors of Properties: multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed- use properties in major markets - Outperforming for 3 months, with 47.9% Return - Last month, 22.19% Return
  • 91. 91 Benefit of Ground Lease For SafeHold For Tenants Much Lower Capital Requirement of Developing Properties (Only Need to Buy The Land) Avoids the large upfront capital expenditure of buying land. The tenant is responsible for paying property taxes, insurance, and maintenance expenses The lease is typically for several decades at a minimum (Predictable and fixed cost) The lease is typically for several decades at a minimum (Stable Income) Reduced lease payments, as opposed to leasing both land and a building. After the lease expires, any buildings or other property improvements belong to the landlord (Significantly Higher Value of Property after lease)
  • 92. 92 Benefit of Ground Lease Source: SafeHold 2018 Interim Report
  • 93. 93 Portfolio (From latest Report Q3) Source: SafeHold 2019 Q3 Report
  • 94. 94 Recent Movement: - 23 Dec 2019 Closes $180 Million Ground Lease In New York City - 12 Dec 2019 Closes A New $285 Million Ground Lease In New York City - 2 Dec 2019 Closes Approximately $620 Million Ground In New York City - 7 Nov 2019 Closes $275 Million Manhattan Ground Lease In New York City → Total: $1.35B of Contracts Signed in Q4 Source: JLL Report Released Oct 2019 Source: Commercial Real Estate Development Association
  • 95. 95 Key Financial Comparison (Till latest Report Q3) - Repositioning since 2018, unrecognized - Sounding Annual Report of 2018 (Released Feb 2019)→ Price soar since - “Safety, Income & Growth Inc.” Rebrands as “Safehold Inc” in Feb 2019
  • 96. 96 Stock Movement - wait for the consolidation to enter - Attention: Earnings Call on 13/2/2020 Before Market
  • 98. 98 GLP J-REIT (TSE 3281) ● Industrial REITs ● Top 5 outperformer (5 days, 1 month, 3 month) in proprietary model ● 15 years experiences of investing in logistics facilities ● Focuses on Modern Logistics Facilities (MLF) Source: Report
  • 100. 100SourceSource: Official Website; Report Profitability
  • 102. 102 Opportunities ● Steady growth in Japanese 3PL(third party logistics) and E-Commerce Market ● Limited supply of modern logistics facilities Source: Official Website
  • 104. 104 Storage REITs - Unique Features ● Operating efficiency and relative simplicity ● Properties can breakeven at sub-50% occupancy rates with low management ● Leases are typically short-term (one year), but nearly half of renters lease their space for more than two years ● 70% of customers are residential, with the other 30% split between businesses
  • 105. 105 Add title Source: XXX Please add back title and source for each page and graph
  • 106. 106 Demand and Supply ● New supply is added in a furious rate because of the good business ● Storage demand correlates closely with job growth and multifamily fundamentals, which continues to exceed expectations ● Strong demand from renter households and businesses has kept rents and occupancy generally flat in the face of ample supply
  • 107. 107 Self storage trend ● rent growth and underlying fundamentals have stabilized over the last several quarters ● PPI, historical correlation with same-store rent growth has signaled positive momentum for the sector since early 2018 Source: XXX
  • 109. 109 Downside ● Too much supply growth may bring a impact to the sector ● Low pricing power and rent may see flat ● Storage needs may change in future years by technology
  • 111. 111 Add title Please expand the row so we can see all words