The document provides an update on the MintKit Growth Index (MGX), which tracks a selection of large-cap stocks focused on steady growth at modest risk. In 2018, the stock market fluctuated significantly and MGX underperformed the broader market, falling 11.8% compared to a 6.2% drop in the S&P 500. For 2019, the MGX roster has been revised to emphasize stable growth over high-potential but volatile stocks, in light of continued uncertainty expected in the market.
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MintKit Growth Index Update: Revised Roster Seeks Stable Growth in 2019
1. MintKit Growth Index – Update
2019 Roster
of a Lean Benchmark for
Sprightly Growth at Modest Risk
Steven Kim
MintKit Investing
www.mintkit.com
2. 2
Summary
The stock market thrashed around a great deal in 2018. The initial flap involved an
upsurge that began around the end of the previous year. The upthrow soon gave way
a smackdown within a few weeks.
Following an upward trudge during the spring and summer, the market lurched lower
in the autumn. As a finale, the bourse sustained a jarring crash in December: a rare
event for this time of year.
When the stock market flounders, high-growth stocks tend to thrash around more
than their plodding peers. Not surprisingly, the MintKit Growth Index (MGX) fared
worse than the stock market as a whole.
3. 3
Summary (Continued)
We may reckon the initial value of the Index upon its launch as unity (1); that is, 100
percentage points. In that case, the newfound level of MGX at the onset of 2019
comes out to 88.1746 points.
Since the Index fell by some 11.8% last year, it fared worse than the SPX which lost
6.2% over the same stretch. That much was to be expected given the heightened
sensitivity of high-growth stocks to the movements of the stock market at large.
Looking downstream, the prospects for 2019 are not much better than last year's. In
particular, the bourse is slated to soar and dive a couple of times during the year.
In that case, it seems prudent to favor stable growth rather than zippy gains over the
year to come.
For this reason, the revised roster for MGX takes a slightly conservative approach
compared to last year's by seeking sturdy growth with ample stability more than lusty
vigor plus superb potential.
4. 4
Contents
● Summary
● Purpose
● Market Backdrop
● Performance to Date
● Revised Roster
● Past Mien of New List
● Wrap-up
● References
● Disclaimer
5. 5
Purpose
MintKit Growth Index (MGX) is a lean benchmark for the stock market focused on
spry growth at modest risk.
The Index draws on the population of large-cap stocks for the sake of robustness and
stability.
The purpose of MGX is to serve as a starting point for the private investor in crafting
an agenda to nurture a portfolio of moderate size. In the interest of efficiency in
monitoring and updating a personal portfolio, the benchmark features a compact
selection of stocks.
Further details on the purpose and methodology behind the MGX are available in
MintKit (2018).
6. 6
Market Backdrop
The stock market thrashed around more than usual in 2018. The opening salvo took
the form of an upthrust that began around the end of the previous year, followed by a
cave-in within a few weeks. Another bombshell was a crash of the bourse at the end
of the year: a rare blow during the month of December.
When the stock market flounders, growth stocks tend to flail around more than their
lumbering peers. In line with this precept, the MintKit Growth Index fared worse than
the bourse as a whole.
The most popular benchmark among professionals – be they practitioners in the
trenches or researchers on the sidelines – lies in the Standard & Poor's index (SPX)
whose role is to track 500 of the biggest names in the stock market. For this reason,
the SPX is a fitting touchstone for the MGX.
11. 11
Performance to Date (Cont.)
We may take the initial value of MGX upon its launch as unity (1); that is, 100
percentage points.
Based on the previous slide, the average loss for the members of the Index came out
to 11.8254 percent. Since the stocks are equally weighted, the latter value also
applies to the comedown for the Index as a whole.
If we subtract the foregoing value from 100, we obtain the current level of MGX;
namely, 88.1746 points.
Since the downturn came out to some 11.8%, the Index fared moderately worse than
the SPX, which lost around 6.2% over the same timespan. The difference in returns
stems from the heightened sensitivity of growth stocks – compared to their plodding
peers – to the movements of the bourse as a whole.
13. 13
Past Mien of Revised List
Relative gains for the first batch of 4 stocks in the revised list, versus SPX, over the past 3 years.
14. 14
Past Mien of Revised List (Cont.)
Relative gains for the second batch of 4 stocks in the revised list, versus SPX, over the past 3 years.
15. 15
Past Mien of Revised List (Cont.)
Relative gains for the third batch of 4 stocks in the revised list, versus SPX, over the past 3 years.
16. 16
Wrap-up
A dynamic economy finds itself in a constant state of flux. Amid the pother, newborn
firms sprout and bloom while aging ones wilt and die. In this parlous environment, any
benchmark of the stock market has to undergo an endless process of renewal if it is
to survive, let alone flourish, over the long range. The same prescript applies to the
MintKit Growth Index.
Last year the stock market began with a bang then ended with a crash that more than
wiped out the modest gains it had chalked up during the spring and summer.
When the stock market crumples, high-growth stocks tend to suffer more than their
lumbering peers. Not surprisingly, the MintKit Growth Index fared worse than the
bourse as a whole.
17. 17
Wrap-up (Cont.)
We may regard the initial value of MGX upon its launch as unity (1); that is, 100
percentage points. In that case, the current level of MGX as we enter 2019 comes out
to 88.1746 points.
Since the Index fell by some 11.8% last year, it fared worse than the SPX which lost
6.2%. That much was to be expected given the heightened sensitivity of perky stocks
to the movements of the stock market at large.
Looking downstream, the prospects for 2019 are not much better than last year's. For
the most part, the market is slated to flail around more than forge ahead.
In that case, it seems prudent to favor stable growth over lively gains in the year to
come.
For this reason, the revised roster for MGX takes a slightly conservative approach by
seeking sturdy growth with ample stability rather than sparkling pep with lofty
potential.
18. 18
References
Finviz. “Screener”. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx – tapped 2018/12/31.
MintKit Hub. “MintKit Growth Index: A Benchmark of the Stock Market for Sprightly
Growth at Modest Risk”. http://w.mintkit.com/2018/01 – tapped 2019/1/1.
StockCharts. “PerfChart”. https://stockcharts.com - tapped 2018/12/31.
Yahoo Finance. “Finance Home”. https://finance.yahoo.com - tapped 2019/1/1.