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Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg
Seminar für Wissenschaftliche Politik
Proseminar „German Foreign Policy today"
Dozent: Eric R. Schüler
Modul: Internationale Beziehungen
Sommersemester 2015
Values and Interests
The German reaction to the crisis in Ukraine
vorgelegt von:
Stephen Schilter
903 West Viejo
Friendswood TX, 77546
Stephen_Schilter@baylor.edu
Matrikelnummer: 4050597
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The dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s largely removed much of Eastern
Europe from the influence of Russian leaders, allowing former Warsaw-Pact and Soviet satellite
states the opportunity to forge closer ties with the West. Seeking to expand the European Union
eastward, the European Commission began drafting European Union Association Agreements
for the states of Central and Eastern Europe (Sajdik, Schwarzinger). These agreements
established membership criteria, which included the adoption of western values regarding civil
liberties, and provided the support that would pave the way for the eventual inclusion of former
communist countries into the European Union. The end result of these agreements was the
expansion of the EU toward the Russian boarder. Many of the states that realigned to the West
also joined the NATO military alliance, a development that deeply disturbed Russian leaders and
would shape their approach in dealing with the growing Western influence in the former Soviet
sphere of influence. President Vladimir Putin’s confrontational approach to Western
encroachment was made clear in his response to the proposed association agreement between the
EU and Ukraine. Assuming the role of Europe’s principal nation, Germany would play a vital
part in mediating the de-escalation of the developing situation. The desires to champion western
democratic values and peacefully maintain the post-Cold War international order in competition
with the necessity of securing economic and strategic national interests constitute the key
components in shaping the German response to Russia during the Ukrainian crisis.
After the Second World War, Germany found itself at the epicenter of the developing
Cold War between the Western Democracies and the Soviet Union in the east. The ensuing
tensions promptly tore the nation into two separate states, a condition that would persist for more
than 40 years. For the new West German state, the initial national interests were the achievement
of security and autonomy from the occupying powers. Chancellor Konrad Adenauer set out to
achieve these goals by fully integrating Germany with the Western powers, a process known as
Westbindung. By fully embracing its relationship with the West and instilling democratic values
in German society, Adenauer secured the benefits of collective defense in the face of potential
Soviet aggression. Earnestly adopting values of democracy, human rights, and civil liberties also
began the process of building trust and rehabilitating the image of Germany in the eyes of its
Western allies (Wegner). This trust would play an important role in the reestablishment of
German sovereignty and rearmament of the German military. Western integration also set up
Germany to reemerge as one of the leading economies in the world through trade. The strong
3
sense of commitment to these values that cultivated in German society would continue to shape
the development of Germany’s foreign policy goals and strategies over time.
In the 1970s, under the leadership of Willy Brandt, a key German foreign policy
approach that has also maintained relevance in the Ukraine crisis developed out of the desire for
the eventual reincorporation of the German Democratic Republic into the Federal Republic of
Germany. West Germany increased efforts to achieve reunification by adopting “Ostpolitik,” a
strategy of normalizing relations with the GDR and other eastern bloc states. In contrast to
former chancellor Adenauer’s commitment to the Hallstein Doctrine, that attempted to isolate the
GDR by refusing to recognize its statehood and threatening governments that maintained
diplomatic relations with the East German state, Brandt’s Ostpolitik sought to increase
interaction between the two German states in an effort to undermine the communist regime
(Gray). In December of 1972 both German states signed the Basic Treaty (Grundlagenvertrag) in
which the FRG and GDR officially recognized each other as sovereign states. Increased
interaction between citizens of the two German states served a significant role in maintaining a
sense of common national identity among all Germans. The easing tensions also allowed travel
to the west and made western media more available, which further influenced people’s desires to
join with the west. Brandt’s use of this long-term tactic was essentially the investment of
political capital to build soft power that could impact German reunification (O’Brien). The goal
of Ostpolitik was to encourage democratization and peacefully bring about change without
directly interfering with the domestic policies of eastern states (Wegner).
European political unity and multilateralism, which are still foundational aspects of
German foreign policy, can also be traced back to this time period. The rationale and processes
for the realization of a common European foreign policy was outlined in the Davignon Report
released in 1970. According to this report, European leaders envisioned “a united Europe capable
of assuming its responsibilities in the world of tomorrow and of making a contribution
commensurate with its traditions and its mission,” emphasizing that, “Europe must prepare itself
to discharge the imperative world duties entailed by its greater cohesion and increasing role.”
The basis for this union consisted of a “common conviction that a Europe composed of States
which, in spite of their different national characteristics, are united in their essential interests,
assured of its internal cohesion, true to its friendly relations with outside countries, conscious of
4
the role it has to play in promoting the relaxation of international tension and the rapprochement
among all peoples, and first and foremost among those of the entire European continent, is
indispensable if a mainspring of development, progress and culture, world equilibrium and peace
is to be preserved.” The significant role of the post-war values that Western Germany adopted as
it integrated with the West are reflected in the report as well. A European political union would
be guided by “a common heritage of respect for the liberty and rights of man and bring together
democratic States with freely elected parliaments” (Davignon). This relative cohesion provided
the collective political resolve that made it possible for the six Western European countries to set
the agenda for the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe in the middle 1970s,
despite the fact that the USA and USSR largely dominated international politics at the time
(O’Brien). For German foreign policy, the key development was the concept that individual
European nations have the potential to be significant in international politics only through the
collective multilateral European political community with a common foreign policy.
After successful reunification and the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s,
which many Germans primarily attributed to the policies of Ostpolitik, the foreign policy of
Germany and the EU continued to focus on efforts to integrate and modernize the countries of
Eastern Europe (Meister, “Reframing”). German leaders strongly supported the extension of EU
membership, initially through association agreements, to eastern countries like Poland, Hungary,
Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. There are several reasons why eastern expansion was
beneficial for Germany. One reason stems from Germany’s desire to promote values of liberal
democracy in the eastern states. The horrific German experience with authoritarian ideology in
the Second World War instilled the mentality of peace and unity in its foreign policy. These
values were codified in the German Constitution of 1949 (Cordell,Wolff). Continuing with the
rationale behind Ostpolitik, enlargement of the European Union to the east would help establish
Western norms in the newly incorporated territories. Failure to do so, as Czech president Vaclav
Havel put it, “would be a return to the times when European order was not a work of consensus
but of violence... For if the future European order does not emerge from a broadening European
Union, based on the best European values and willing to defend and transmit them, the
organization of the future could well fall into the hands of a cast of fools, fanatics, populists, and
demagogues waiting for their chance and determined to promote the worst European traditions”
(Schimmelfennig).
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While normative values undoubtedly played a primary role in Germany’s support of
eastern enlargement, the importance of German national interest cannot be ignored. Cordell and
Wolff point out that “The end of the Cold War enabled a very different approach to European
integration—from the mere rhetoric of a united Europe toward concrete opportunities to extend
existing (Western) economic, political and military cooperation structure to include countries of
the former Soviet bloc.” Professor Frank Schimmelfennig saw the clear economic benefits of
increased association with the east as driving forces behind German foreign policy.
Schimmelfennig argues that “the German government sought to de-emphasize its self-interest in
enlargement” and only used rhetorical appeals to European values to achieve their economic
goals. Such suspicions concerning Germany’s real intentions have influenced perceptions of the
German role in the development of the 2014 crisis in Ukraine.
Expanding influence eastward was only part of Germany’s post-Cold War Ostpolitik.
Arguably more important was its significance for the relationship between Germany and the
Russian Federation. German leaders like Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder desired to see the
modernization of Russia with German as its main partner (Rahr). The motto of Ostpolitik shifted
from “change through rapprochement” to “change through interweavement” (Meister,
“Reframing”). Attempts by Germany to interweave with Russian society took several forms.
Alexander Rahr writes that “German leadership had been the strongest supporter for Moscow’s
inclusion in the debt negotiations with the Paris and London Clubs as well as in formal arenas
such as the Group of Seven and the World Trade Organization. When post-Soviet Russia began
to experience severe economic problems in the 1990s, Germany jumped in as a financial
creditor.” Rahr goes on to mention Germany’s creation of French-German-Russian summits
“designed to make Moscow feel that although it is not an EU or NATO member, it is not
excluded from decision making in Europe.” In addition to international organizations, Germany
has bilaterally engaged Russia on the societal level. Matthes Buhbe describes “platforms for the
discussion of civil society in both countries such as the “Petersburg Dialogue” (which led to the
establishment of the German-Russian youth exchange programme), the “German-Russian
Forum”, the six German political foundations with their Russian counterparts, over 500
university partnerships, the liaison offices of the German Academic Exchange Service, the
German Research Society, the “Heimholtzgesellschaft” Centre for applied and technical science,
and other scientific establishments, the German-Russian Historical Commission, the joint
6
museum in Karlshorst, the German Historical Institute in Moscow, numerous town links and
places to go to in the Russian regions to study German language and culture. After English,
German is the most taught foreign language in Russia” (Buhbe). The prevalence of these
contacts demonstrates the scope of German leaders’ efforts to integrate Russia with European
values and avoid its isolation.
However, it is from the economic sphere that Germany draws most of its power. This is
particularly true for its relationship with Russia. The emergence of Germany as a geo-economic
power relied heavily on the production and export of manufactured goods. Germany, however,
lack the abundance of natural resources and sources of energy required to maintain its
production. Russia, on the other hand, controls a vast territory, rich in raw materials, oil, and
natural gas. In 2011, bilateral trade between the two countries exceeds $75 billion a year. In that
same year, 226,000 jobs were created by the over 6,000 German firms in Russia. Private German
industry has invested over $19.5 billion in Russia (Szabo). Because of this, maintaining good
relations with Moscow is a top priority for German foreign policy. German leaders have opposed
the expansion of NATO out of concern that the Kremlin would interrupt the flow of energy and
are perceived by other Western leaders as being soft on Russia. In 2010, former foreign minister
Joschka Fischer commented that Germany foreign policy was “essentially foreign economic
policy and follows almost exclusively domestic political considerations. What is useful in the
election campaign? What brings consent and what brings rejection? Where is the domestic
political risk, can I take that, what does it cost me? I would call this “refusal to lead.” Thereby
we lose more and more of what used to be at the core of German foreign policy in the future; and
what should also be at the core in the future” (Szabo). Remarks like this further highlight
suspicions that Germany is primarily focused on its own national interests rather than promoting
its values.
The relationship between values and interests shaped the European approach to foreign
policy. With Germany as a driving member, the EU saw the promotion of its values as a means
to furthering its national interests. The European Security Strategy published in 2003 stated that
“the best protection for our security is a world of well-governed democratic states,” adding that
“spreading good governance, supporting social and political reform, dealing with corruption and
abuse of power, establishing the rule of law and protecting human rights are the best means of
strengthening the international order” (Dias). This was the general thinking behind the initiation
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of the EU’s Eastern Partnership program. By integrating their economies and values through
association agreements and financial incentives, European leaders hoped to induce change in
countries like Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The consequences
of expanding EU influence farther east proved to have major implications for the Russo-
European relationship. Growing apprehension on the part of Russia’s ruling elite to growing
Western influence came to a head in the case of Ukraine in 2014.
Russia’s confrontational behavior is the result of its leader’s conception of international
politics as a zero-sum game. The EU’s Eastern Partnership was perceived by Russian leaders as
an aggressive encroachment on the Russian sphere of influence. Furthermore, the goals of the
partnership to stabilize and instill liberal democratic values in eastern countries were also in
conflict with the interests of Russian elites. Maintaining its dominance in its neighboring
countries is one of Russia’s primary foreign policy objectives. In this sense, the Eastern
Partnership was seen as an anti-Russia policy. Russian foreign policy became increasingly more
defensive in the wake of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. This incident “demonstrated the
vulnerability and limited appeal of the Russian model of integration and, in fact, formalized the
abandonment by a number of the former Soviet Republics the strategy of balancing between
Russia and the EU, giving way to a closer political and economic integration with the Euro-
Atlantic structures” (Gretskiy). Russian leaders’ perception of the EU as a threat to their national
interests is an integral factor for the development of the 2014 crisis in Ukraine.
German foreign policy has often been criticized as being a key instigator in the
development of the crisis. Germany, in its pursuit of the Association Agreement between the EU
and Ukraine, failed to predict that Russia would push back (Meister, “Reframing”). The crisis
began after the former pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych opted to sign a deal
with Russian President Putin rather than the EU Association Agreement. Yanukovych was
deposed after protesters took to the streets in Kiev. After interim government signed the
Association Agreement, Russian leaders made efforts to further destabilize the country. Putin
annexed Crimea and supported pro-Russian separatists in the eastern region of Ukraine. The
Russian strategy was to secure its future hold on domestic Ukrainian politics by firmly
establishing its influence over the eastern provinces. From the perspectives of the US, Germany
and the EU, Putin’s policies were clearly in violation of international law and threatened the
8
stability of the region. Russia’s role in destabilizing Ukraine highlighted several elements of
Russia’s relationship with the West and changed how Germany approached its Russia policy.
Putin’s decision to escalate the level of his opposition to the West was influenced by his
perception of how the West would react. The divergent interests of European Union members
regarding Russia played a role in Putin’s perception that the EU lacked the unity to counter
Russian aggression. Stefan Meister commented on the lack of a unified EU policy on Russia,
claiming that “Germany’s bilateral relations with Russia have in the past undermined the
construction of a coherent European Russia policy… In fact, the EU is split on Russia because of
member states’ different priorities, divergent economic interests, and incompatible security and
risk assessments.” Putin played on the peaceful aims of German foreign policy and hoped that
the economically weaker EU members would oppose sanctions (Speck). Russia had confidence
that Europe’s demand for Russian energy and markets would prevent the formation of a united
front against Russia. These economic factors and its traditional policy position vis à vis Russia
also shaped the initial German response to the crisis.
The way in which Germany responded to Russia was partially shaped by German
economic interests. Economic considerations made German leaders hesitant about confronting
Putin. Hans Kundnani described in Foreign Affairs how “Merkel faced pressure from powerful
lobbyists for German industry, led by the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations,
who argued that sanctions would badly undermine the German economy.” Kundnani also relates
the story of how, “In a show of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Joe Kaeser, the
CEO of Siemens, visited the Russian leader at his residence outside Moscow just after the
annexation of Crimea. Kaeser assured Putin that his company, which had conducted business in
Russia for roughly 160 years, would not let “short-term turbulence”—his characterization of the
crisis—affect its relationship with the country.” The fact that Russia supplied roughly 38% of
Germany’s oil and 36% of its gas in combination with Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear
energy made the option of antagonizing Russia even less appealing (Kundnani). As Green Party
politician Marieluise Beck put it, ““Our logic is we must be nice, good friends with the Kremlin
because we want their oil and gas. But the Putin show would be over if he couldn’t sell them to
his Western partners” (Szabo).
Germany’s values and the historical relationship between the two nations were also
significant to the way German leaders initially responded to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. During
9
World War Two, Russia was devastated and its people were subjected to terrible atrocities at the
hands of German army. Estimates of Soviet casualties range as high as over 25 million killed.
These memories have instilled a feeling of guilt, or “historical responsibility,” on the German
people. Supporting more hawkish approaches against Russia would fly in the face of
Vergangenheitsbewältigung. Additionally, as mentioned previously, the success of Ostpolitik
during the Cold War made a confrontational foreign policy less appealing. History has also made
Germans particularly aware of the dangers of economic and political isolation. Many German
leaders share the ideas that “isolation of Russia is unacceptable and must be avoided at all costs”
and that “policies that strengthen the hawks in the Kremlin should be avoided” (Chivvis, Rid).
Germany’s early refusal to heed the call of the United States to react swiftly and strongly to
Russia was also a sign of another historical development. After the Cold War, Germany became
less dependent on its Trans-Atlantic partnership. Germany took the lead, but it did so in its own
way. Its value-based aspiration to be a force for peace would continue to be a significant element
of how Germany handled the crisis.
As the crisis in Ukraine evolved, so did Germany’s response. Despite the disagreements
between those in German society that were concerned with civil society in Russia and those that
had more economic interests in mind, Chancellor Merkel took the lead in establishing a more
critical approach to Putin’s initiatives. In an unusual development, Germany stepped up to be the
primary mediator between Russia and the West. The German response has taken advantage of its
diplomatic and economic power. Merkel focused on a multilateral strategy to create a unified
with the United States and other EU members (Speck). This strategy included bringing the
various groups involved in the conflict to the table to discuss a peaceful solution. The Minsk
agreements were the result of these attempts to decrease tensions through dialogue. Sanctions
were a major tool for Merkel’s multilateral strategy to create a unified response to Putin. Ulrich
Speck described the effect of sanctions, writing that “at the beginning of the conflict, there was
considerable disagreement among the 28 EU member states on the character of a joint response.
Each time European leaders agreed on a new round of sanctions, the EU was forced to reach an
internal consensus to develop a common approach.” In addition to using sanctions to build unity,
German leaders also had the more obvious intention of limiting Putin’s options in Ukraine
(Speck). From the very beginning, Merkel asserted her view that a military solution to Russian
10
aggression was out of the question. While this opposition to violence is typical for German
politicians, it was seen as appeasement by some Americans and eastern EU member states.
German leaders were able to adopt these policies and remain at the head of negotiations
for a variety of reasons. The first factor is the position of Germany to take the leadership role in
the first place. As previously mentioned, Germany has a considerable connection with Russia
through economic investment and the partnership for modernization. No other country was in the
position to take the driver seat. Given the proximity of Germany to Ukraine, national security
was a particularly pressing concern that drove Germany to take action. Additionally, German
leadership had already proven itself as a capable political force within the European Union. This
caused the US and EU members to view the leading role of Germany as legitimate. Furthermore,
American leaders were seeking to reduce its involvement in foreign issues and were eager to
pass the burden of maintaining the international order to its great European ally. Finally, the
importance of Merkel herself should not be ignored. She maintained a high level of contact with
Putin. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond was quoted, calling Merkel one of the greatest
“weapons” of the West and praising her access to Putin as “the best chance we have of
negotiating an effective solution to the problem in the Ukraine” (Speck).
A second factor that contributed to the German resolve in taking a stronger stance was
the apparent failure of Russia to modernize and adopt Western values. President Putin’s behavior
has made German politicians and individuals adopt more realist views about Ostpolitik. Hannes
Adomeit claimed that “The ‘strategic partnership’ has proven never to have existed; the
‘modernization partnership’ did not get off the ground; the – in the positive sense – political
‘special relationship’ has come to an end; trade, after a tremendous expansion, is shrinking; the
German government has taken the lead in confronting Russia over Ukraine.” As Adomite
mentions, economic incentives for maintaining good relations with Russia began to wane. Stefan
Meister German businesses still find profit in Russia, but frustration about the ongoing lack of
domestic reforms and the lack of progress in establishing rule of law and transparency is
growing” (Meister, “Germany's Russia Policy”). The level of corruption and lack of transparency
in Russia makes it particularly difficult for small to medium size businesses to operate in Russia.
Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Russia at 117th out of 177 (177
indicating the highest level of corruption) (Meister, “Reframing”). Some estimate that Russia is
losing at least $300 billion in foreign investment each year due to corruption (Szabo). The
11
significant influence of Russian oil and gas is also being undermined by the German
government’s efforts reduce dependence on Russian energy (Meister, “Reframing”). These
factors no doubt contributed to the observation that “German industry, by and large, has
acknowledged the primacy of politics over economics” (Adomeit). These developments indicate
that German foreign policy regarding Russia is not dictated by solely economic interests.
Understanding whether Germany is acting as an honest broker or is primarily concerned
with its own national interests has been made difficult by the lack of dialogue between the
human rights group and the Russlandversteher. Stefan Meister observed that “Russia is
becoming more and more a matter of lobbying “for or against” one approach or another—either
you are for economic cooperation or against human right violations. As a result there is a clear
separation between an interest-oriented and a values-oriented approach. But the conclusion that
these are two sides of one coin is pushed into the background” (Meister, “Germany's Russia
Policy”). Jana Kobzova, a policy fellow and coordinator of the European Council on Foreign
Relations’ Wider Europe program, emphasizes the idea that “the EU’s values-based approach
remains the best way to secure its interests.” Kobzova specifically mentions that promoting
standards of stability and transparence is a good way for the EU to boost its economic interests.
She writes that “Western businesses and investments also stand to suffer when courts are corrupt
and officials capricious;” concluding that “the EU’s emphasis on observance of laws and
diplomatic conventions is simply also a good business strategy” (Kobzova). As mentioned
previously, The EU’s national security interests also benefits from the expansion of its values to
other countries.
Modern Germany has benefited immensely from the international order established after
the Cold War. According to the CIA, Germany is the fifth largest economy in the world with an
estimated export value of $1.547 trillion in 2014 (CIA). This economic prosperity has been
achieved peacefully despite the country’s relative lack of natural resources. Maintaining the
international status quo is therefore a critical national interest for the Federal Republic of
Germany. The German foreign policy strategy for securing stability has been to incorporate other
countries into its economic structure and thereby promote its democratic values in an effort to
integrate those countries in the international order. While Germany is currently in a fortunate
situation where its national interests are complimented by its core values, the recent experience
12
with the setbacks regarding Russia’s integration could potentially upset the harmonious
relationship between German values and national interests.
13
Works Cited
Étienne Davignon. "Davignon Report." Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of, 27
October 1970. Web.
Adomeit, Hannes. "German-Russian Relations: Change of Paradigm versus ‘Business as
Usual’." Notes du Cerfa. Institut français des relations internationales, Feb 2015. Web.
Buhbe, Matthes. "The Main Features of a German Strategy towards Russia." Compass 2020.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, March 2007. Web.
CIA. CIA World Facebook: Germany. 15 September 2015. Web. 20 September 2015.
Dias, Vanda. "The EU and Russia: Competing Discourses, Practices and Interests in the Shared
Neighbourhood." Perspectives on European Politics and Society (2013): 256-271. Web.
Gray, Glenn. The Hallstein Doctrine: West Germany's global campaign to isolate East Germany,
1949--1969. Ann Arbor: Yale, 1999. Web.
Gretskiy, Igor. "Russia's perceptions and misperceptions of the EU Eastern Partnership."
Communist and Post-Communist Studies (2014): 375-383. Web.
Karl Cordell and Stefan Wolff. "A Foreign Policy Analysis of the “German Question”:
Ostpolitik Revisited." Foreign Policy Analysis (2007): 255-271. Web.
Kobzova, Jana. "Can the Eastern Partnership work?" European View (2012): 209-214. Web.
Kundnani, Hans. "Leaving the West Behind." 2015. Foreign Affairs. Web. 20 September 2015.
Meister, Stefan. "Germany's Russia Policy under Angela Merkel: A Balance Sheet." The Polish
Quarterly of International Affairs 2013: 28-42. Web.
—. Reframing Germany's Russia Policy - An Oppertunity for the EU. Policy Brief. London:
European Council on Foreign Relations, 2014. Web.
O‟Brien, Andrew. "Opening the Iron Curtain: The Ostpolitik of Willy Brandt". Dublin, 2010.
Web.
Rahr, Alexander. "Germany and Russia: A Special Relationship." The Washington Quarterly
2007: 137-145. Web.
Schimmelfennig, Frank. "The Community Trap: Liberal Norms, Rhetorical Action, and the
Eastern Enlargement of the European Union." International Organization (2001): 47-80.
Web.
Schwarzinger, Martin Sajdik and Michael. European Union Enlargement : Background,
Developments, Facts. Piscataway: Transaction Publishers, 2008. Web.
14
Speck, Ulrich. "German Power and the Ukraine Conflict." March 2015. Carnegie Europe. Web.
20 September 2015.
Szabo, Stephen. Germany, Russia, and the Rise of Geo-Economics. London: Bloomsbury
Publishing, 2014. Web.
Wegner, Helmut. "West German Ostpolitik." The RUSI Journal (1990): 36-38. Web.

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Germany - German Foreign Policy and Ukraine Crisis

  • 1. 1 Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg Seminar für Wissenschaftliche Politik Proseminar „German Foreign Policy today" Dozent: Eric R. Schüler Modul: Internationale Beziehungen Sommersemester 2015 Values and Interests The German reaction to the crisis in Ukraine vorgelegt von: Stephen Schilter 903 West Viejo Friendswood TX, 77546 Stephen_Schilter@baylor.edu Matrikelnummer: 4050597
  • 2. 2 The dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s largely removed much of Eastern Europe from the influence of Russian leaders, allowing former Warsaw-Pact and Soviet satellite states the opportunity to forge closer ties with the West. Seeking to expand the European Union eastward, the European Commission began drafting European Union Association Agreements for the states of Central and Eastern Europe (Sajdik, Schwarzinger). These agreements established membership criteria, which included the adoption of western values regarding civil liberties, and provided the support that would pave the way for the eventual inclusion of former communist countries into the European Union. The end result of these agreements was the expansion of the EU toward the Russian boarder. Many of the states that realigned to the West also joined the NATO military alliance, a development that deeply disturbed Russian leaders and would shape their approach in dealing with the growing Western influence in the former Soviet sphere of influence. President Vladimir Putin’s confrontational approach to Western encroachment was made clear in his response to the proposed association agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Assuming the role of Europe’s principal nation, Germany would play a vital part in mediating the de-escalation of the developing situation. The desires to champion western democratic values and peacefully maintain the post-Cold War international order in competition with the necessity of securing economic and strategic national interests constitute the key components in shaping the German response to Russia during the Ukrainian crisis. After the Second World War, Germany found itself at the epicenter of the developing Cold War between the Western Democracies and the Soviet Union in the east. The ensuing tensions promptly tore the nation into two separate states, a condition that would persist for more than 40 years. For the new West German state, the initial national interests were the achievement of security and autonomy from the occupying powers. Chancellor Konrad Adenauer set out to achieve these goals by fully integrating Germany with the Western powers, a process known as Westbindung. By fully embracing its relationship with the West and instilling democratic values in German society, Adenauer secured the benefits of collective defense in the face of potential Soviet aggression. Earnestly adopting values of democracy, human rights, and civil liberties also began the process of building trust and rehabilitating the image of Germany in the eyes of its Western allies (Wegner). This trust would play an important role in the reestablishment of German sovereignty and rearmament of the German military. Western integration also set up Germany to reemerge as one of the leading economies in the world through trade. The strong
  • 3. 3 sense of commitment to these values that cultivated in German society would continue to shape the development of Germany’s foreign policy goals and strategies over time. In the 1970s, under the leadership of Willy Brandt, a key German foreign policy approach that has also maintained relevance in the Ukraine crisis developed out of the desire for the eventual reincorporation of the German Democratic Republic into the Federal Republic of Germany. West Germany increased efforts to achieve reunification by adopting “Ostpolitik,” a strategy of normalizing relations with the GDR and other eastern bloc states. In contrast to former chancellor Adenauer’s commitment to the Hallstein Doctrine, that attempted to isolate the GDR by refusing to recognize its statehood and threatening governments that maintained diplomatic relations with the East German state, Brandt’s Ostpolitik sought to increase interaction between the two German states in an effort to undermine the communist regime (Gray). In December of 1972 both German states signed the Basic Treaty (Grundlagenvertrag) in which the FRG and GDR officially recognized each other as sovereign states. Increased interaction between citizens of the two German states served a significant role in maintaining a sense of common national identity among all Germans. The easing tensions also allowed travel to the west and made western media more available, which further influenced people’s desires to join with the west. Brandt’s use of this long-term tactic was essentially the investment of political capital to build soft power that could impact German reunification (O’Brien). The goal of Ostpolitik was to encourage democratization and peacefully bring about change without directly interfering with the domestic policies of eastern states (Wegner). European political unity and multilateralism, which are still foundational aspects of German foreign policy, can also be traced back to this time period. The rationale and processes for the realization of a common European foreign policy was outlined in the Davignon Report released in 1970. According to this report, European leaders envisioned “a united Europe capable of assuming its responsibilities in the world of tomorrow and of making a contribution commensurate with its traditions and its mission,” emphasizing that, “Europe must prepare itself to discharge the imperative world duties entailed by its greater cohesion and increasing role.” The basis for this union consisted of a “common conviction that a Europe composed of States which, in spite of their different national characteristics, are united in their essential interests, assured of its internal cohesion, true to its friendly relations with outside countries, conscious of
  • 4. 4 the role it has to play in promoting the relaxation of international tension and the rapprochement among all peoples, and first and foremost among those of the entire European continent, is indispensable if a mainspring of development, progress and culture, world equilibrium and peace is to be preserved.” The significant role of the post-war values that Western Germany adopted as it integrated with the West are reflected in the report as well. A European political union would be guided by “a common heritage of respect for the liberty and rights of man and bring together democratic States with freely elected parliaments” (Davignon). This relative cohesion provided the collective political resolve that made it possible for the six Western European countries to set the agenda for the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe in the middle 1970s, despite the fact that the USA and USSR largely dominated international politics at the time (O’Brien). For German foreign policy, the key development was the concept that individual European nations have the potential to be significant in international politics only through the collective multilateral European political community with a common foreign policy. After successful reunification and the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, which many Germans primarily attributed to the policies of Ostpolitik, the foreign policy of Germany and the EU continued to focus on efforts to integrate and modernize the countries of Eastern Europe (Meister, “Reframing”). German leaders strongly supported the extension of EU membership, initially through association agreements, to eastern countries like Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. There are several reasons why eastern expansion was beneficial for Germany. One reason stems from Germany’s desire to promote values of liberal democracy in the eastern states. The horrific German experience with authoritarian ideology in the Second World War instilled the mentality of peace and unity in its foreign policy. These values were codified in the German Constitution of 1949 (Cordell,Wolff). Continuing with the rationale behind Ostpolitik, enlargement of the European Union to the east would help establish Western norms in the newly incorporated territories. Failure to do so, as Czech president Vaclav Havel put it, “would be a return to the times when European order was not a work of consensus but of violence... For if the future European order does not emerge from a broadening European Union, based on the best European values and willing to defend and transmit them, the organization of the future could well fall into the hands of a cast of fools, fanatics, populists, and demagogues waiting for their chance and determined to promote the worst European traditions” (Schimmelfennig).
  • 5. 5 While normative values undoubtedly played a primary role in Germany’s support of eastern enlargement, the importance of German national interest cannot be ignored. Cordell and Wolff point out that “The end of the Cold War enabled a very different approach to European integration—from the mere rhetoric of a united Europe toward concrete opportunities to extend existing (Western) economic, political and military cooperation structure to include countries of the former Soviet bloc.” Professor Frank Schimmelfennig saw the clear economic benefits of increased association with the east as driving forces behind German foreign policy. Schimmelfennig argues that “the German government sought to de-emphasize its self-interest in enlargement” and only used rhetorical appeals to European values to achieve their economic goals. Such suspicions concerning Germany’s real intentions have influenced perceptions of the German role in the development of the 2014 crisis in Ukraine. Expanding influence eastward was only part of Germany’s post-Cold War Ostpolitik. Arguably more important was its significance for the relationship between Germany and the Russian Federation. German leaders like Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder desired to see the modernization of Russia with German as its main partner (Rahr). The motto of Ostpolitik shifted from “change through rapprochement” to “change through interweavement” (Meister, “Reframing”). Attempts by Germany to interweave with Russian society took several forms. Alexander Rahr writes that “German leadership had been the strongest supporter for Moscow’s inclusion in the debt negotiations with the Paris and London Clubs as well as in formal arenas such as the Group of Seven and the World Trade Organization. When post-Soviet Russia began to experience severe economic problems in the 1990s, Germany jumped in as a financial creditor.” Rahr goes on to mention Germany’s creation of French-German-Russian summits “designed to make Moscow feel that although it is not an EU or NATO member, it is not excluded from decision making in Europe.” In addition to international organizations, Germany has bilaterally engaged Russia on the societal level. Matthes Buhbe describes “platforms for the discussion of civil society in both countries such as the “Petersburg Dialogue” (which led to the establishment of the German-Russian youth exchange programme), the “German-Russian Forum”, the six German political foundations with their Russian counterparts, over 500 university partnerships, the liaison offices of the German Academic Exchange Service, the German Research Society, the “Heimholtzgesellschaft” Centre for applied and technical science, and other scientific establishments, the German-Russian Historical Commission, the joint
  • 6. 6 museum in Karlshorst, the German Historical Institute in Moscow, numerous town links and places to go to in the Russian regions to study German language and culture. After English, German is the most taught foreign language in Russia” (Buhbe). The prevalence of these contacts demonstrates the scope of German leaders’ efforts to integrate Russia with European values and avoid its isolation. However, it is from the economic sphere that Germany draws most of its power. This is particularly true for its relationship with Russia. The emergence of Germany as a geo-economic power relied heavily on the production and export of manufactured goods. Germany, however, lack the abundance of natural resources and sources of energy required to maintain its production. Russia, on the other hand, controls a vast territory, rich in raw materials, oil, and natural gas. In 2011, bilateral trade between the two countries exceeds $75 billion a year. In that same year, 226,000 jobs were created by the over 6,000 German firms in Russia. Private German industry has invested over $19.5 billion in Russia (Szabo). Because of this, maintaining good relations with Moscow is a top priority for German foreign policy. German leaders have opposed the expansion of NATO out of concern that the Kremlin would interrupt the flow of energy and are perceived by other Western leaders as being soft on Russia. In 2010, former foreign minister Joschka Fischer commented that Germany foreign policy was “essentially foreign economic policy and follows almost exclusively domestic political considerations. What is useful in the election campaign? What brings consent and what brings rejection? Where is the domestic political risk, can I take that, what does it cost me? I would call this “refusal to lead.” Thereby we lose more and more of what used to be at the core of German foreign policy in the future; and what should also be at the core in the future” (Szabo). Remarks like this further highlight suspicions that Germany is primarily focused on its own national interests rather than promoting its values. The relationship between values and interests shaped the European approach to foreign policy. With Germany as a driving member, the EU saw the promotion of its values as a means to furthering its national interests. The European Security Strategy published in 2003 stated that “the best protection for our security is a world of well-governed democratic states,” adding that “spreading good governance, supporting social and political reform, dealing with corruption and abuse of power, establishing the rule of law and protecting human rights are the best means of strengthening the international order” (Dias). This was the general thinking behind the initiation
  • 7. 7 of the EU’s Eastern Partnership program. By integrating their economies and values through association agreements and financial incentives, European leaders hoped to induce change in countries like Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The consequences of expanding EU influence farther east proved to have major implications for the Russo- European relationship. Growing apprehension on the part of Russia’s ruling elite to growing Western influence came to a head in the case of Ukraine in 2014. Russia’s confrontational behavior is the result of its leader’s conception of international politics as a zero-sum game. The EU’s Eastern Partnership was perceived by Russian leaders as an aggressive encroachment on the Russian sphere of influence. Furthermore, the goals of the partnership to stabilize and instill liberal democratic values in eastern countries were also in conflict with the interests of Russian elites. Maintaining its dominance in its neighboring countries is one of Russia’s primary foreign policy objectives. In this sense, the Eastern Partnership was seen as an anti-Russia policy. Russian foreign policy became increasingly more defensive in the wake of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. This incident “demonstrated the vulnerability and limited appeal of the Russian model of integration and, in fact, formalized the abandonment by a number of the former Soviet Republics the strategy of balancing between Russia and the EU, giving way to a closer political and economic integration with the Euro- Atlantic structures” (Gretskiy). Russian leaders’ perception of the EU as a threat to their national interests is an integral factor for the development of the 2014 crisis in Ukraine. German foreign policy has often been criticized as being a key instigator in the development of the crisis. Germany, in its pursuit of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine, failed to predict that Russia would push back (Meister, “Reframing”). The crisis began after the former pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych opted to sign a deal with Russian President Putin rather than the EU Association Agreement. Yanukovych was deposed after protesters took to the streets in Kiev. After interim government signed the Association Agreement, Russian leaders made efforts to further destabilize the country. Putin annexed Crimea and supported pro-Russian separatists in the eastern region of Ukraine. The Russian strategy was to secure its future hold on domestic Ukrainian politics by firmly establishing its influence over the eastern provinces. From the perspectives of the US, Germany and the EU, Putin’s policies were clearly in violation of international law and threatened the
  • 8. 8 stability of the region. Russia’s role in destabilizing Ukraine highlighted several elements of Russia’s relationship with the West and changed how Germany approached its Russia policy. Putin’s decision to escalate the level of his opposition to the West was influenced by his perception of how the West would react. The divergent interests of European Union members regarding Russia played a role in Putin’s perception that the EU lacked the unity to counter Russian aggression. Stefan Meister commented on the lack of a unified EU policy on Russia, claiming that “Germany’s bilateral relations with Russia have in the past undermined the construction of a coherent European Russia policy… In fact, the EU is split on Russia because of member states’ different priorities, divergent economic interests, and incompatible security and risk assessments.” Putin played on the peaceful aims of German foreign policy and hoped that the economically weaker EU members would oppose sanctions (Speck). Russia had confidence that Europe’s demand for Russian energy and markets would prevent the formation of a united front against Russia. These economic factors and its traditional policy position vis à vis Russia also shaped the initial German response to the crisis. The way in which Germany responded to Russia was partially shaped by German economic interests. Economic considerations made German leaders hesitant about confronting Putin. Hans Kundnani described in Foreign Affairs how “Merkel faced pressure from powerful lobbyists for German industry, led by the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, who argued that sanctions would badly undermine the German economy.” Kundnani also relates the story of how, “In a show of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Joe Kaeser, the CEO of Siemens, visited the Russian leader at his residence outside Moscow just after the annexation of Crimea. Kaeser assured Putin that his company, which had conducted business in Russia for roughly 160 years, would not let “short-term turbulence”—his characterization of the crisis—affect its relationship with the country.” The fact that Russia supplied roughly 38% of Germany’s oil and 36% of its gas in combination with Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear energy made the option of antagonizing Russia even less appealing (Kundnani). As Green Party politician Marieluise Beck put it, ““Our logic is we must be nice, good friends with the Kremlin because we want their oil and gas. But the Putin show would be over if he couldn’t sell them to his Western partners” (Szabo). Germany’s values and the historical relationship between the two nations were also significant to the way German leaders initially responded to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. During
  • 9. 9 World War Two, Russia was devastated and its people were subjected to terrible atrocities at the hands of German army. Estimates of Soviet casualties range as high as over 25 million killed. These memories have instilled a feeling of guilt, or “historical responsibility,” on the German people. Supporting more hawkish approaches against Russia would fly in the face of Vergangenheitsbewältigung. Additionally, as mentioned previously, the success of Ostpolitik during the Cold War made a confrontational foreign policy less appealing. History has also made Germans particularly aware of the dangers of economic and political isolation. Many German leaders share the ideas that “isolation of Russia is unacceptable and must be avoided at all costs” and that “policies that strengthen the hawks in the Kremlin should be avoided” (Chivvis, Rid). Germany’s early refusal to heed the call of the United States to react swiftly and strongly to Russia was also a sign of another historical development. After the Cold War, Germany became less dependent on its Trans-Atlantic partnership. Germany took the lead, but it did so in its own way. Its value-based aspiration to be a force for peace would continue to be a significant element of how Germany handled the crisis. As the crisis in Ukraine evolved, so did Germany’s response. Despite the disagreements between those in German society that were concerned with civil society in Russia and those that had more economic interests in mind, Chancellor Merkel took the lead in establishing a more critical approach to Putin’s initiatives. In an unusual development, Germany stepped up to be the primary mediator between Russia and the West. The German response has taken advantage of its diplomatic and economic power. Merkel focused on a multilateral strategy to create a unified with the United States and other EU members (Speck). This strategy included bringing the various groups involved in the conflict to the table to discuss a peaceful solution. The Minsk agreements were the result of these attempts to decrease tensions through dialogue. Sanctions were a major tool for Merkel’s multilateral strategy to create a unified response to Putin. Ulrich Speck described the effect of sanctions, writing that “at the beginning of the conflict, there was considerable disagreement among the 28 EU member states on the character of a joint response. Each time European leaders agreed on a new round of sanctions, the EU was forced to reach an internal consensus to develop a common approach.” In addition to using sanctions to build unity, German leaders also had the more obvious intention of limiting Putin’s options in Ukraine (Speck). From the very beginning, Merkel asserted her view that a military solution to Russian
  • 10. 10 aggression was out of the question. While this opposition to violence is typical for German politicians, it was seen as appeasement by some Americans and eastern EU member states. German leaders were able to adopt these policies and remain at the head of negotiations for a variety of reasons. The first factor is the position of Germany to take the leadership role in the first place. As previously mentioned, Germany has a considerable connection with Russia through economic investment and the partnership for modernization. No other country was in the position to take the driver seat. Given the proximity of Germany to Ukraine, national security was a particularly pressing concern that drove Germany to take action. Additionally, German leadership had already proven itself as a capable political force within the European Union. This caused the US and EU members to view the leading role of Germany as legitimate. Furthermore, American leaders were seeking to reduce its involvement in foreign issues and were eager to pass the burden of maintaining the international order to its great European ally. Finally, the importance of Merkel herself should not be ignored. She maintained a high level of contact with Putin. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond was quoted, calling Merkel one of the greatest “weapons” of the West and praising her access to Putin as “the best chance we have of negotiating an effective solution to the problem in the Ukraine” (Speck). A second factor that contributed to the German resolve in taking a stronger stance was the apparent failure of Russia to modernize and adopt Western values. President Putin’s behavior has made German politicians and individuals adopt more realist views about Ostpolitik. Hannes Adomeit claimed that “The ‘strategic partnership’ has proven never to have existed; the ‘modernization partnership’ did not get off the ground; the – in the positive sense – political ‘special relationship’ has come to an end; trade, after a tremendous expansion, is shrinking; the German government has taken the lead in confronting Russia over Ukraine.” As Adomite mentions, economic incentives for maintaining good relations with Russia began to wane. Stefan Meister German businesses still find profit in Russia, but frustration about the ongoing lack of domestic reforms and the lack of progress in establishing rule of law and transparency is growing” (Meister, “Germany's Russia Policy”). The level of corruption and lack of transparency in Russia makes it particularly difficult for small to medium size businesses to operate in Russia. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Russia at 117th out of 177 (177 indicating the highest level of corruption) (Meister, “Reframing”). Some estimate that Russia is losing at least $300 billion in foreign investment each year due to corruption (Szabo). The
  • 11. 11 significant influence of Russian oil and gas is also being undermined by the German government’s efforts reduce dependence on Russian energy (Meister, “Reframing”). These factors no doubt contributed to the observation that “German industry, by and large, has acknowledged the primacy of politics over economics” (Adomeit). These developments indicate that German foreign policy regarding Russia is not dictated by solely economic interests. Understanding whether Germany is acting as an honest broker or is primarily concerned with its own national interests has been made difficult by the lack of dialogue between the human rights group and the Russlandversteher. Stefan Meister observed that “Russia is becoming more and more a matter of lobbying “for or against” one approach or another—either you are for economic cooperation or against human right violations. As a result there is a clear separation between an interest-oriented and a values-oriented approach. But the conclusion that these are two sides of one coin is pushed into the background” (Meister, “Germany's Russia Policy”). Jana Kobzova, a policy fellow and coordinator of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Wider Europe program, emphasizes the idea that “the EU’s values-based approach remains the best way to secure its interests.” Kobzova specifically mentions that promoting standards of stability and transparence is a good way for the EU to boost its economic interests. She writes that “Western businesses and investments also stand to suffer when courts are corrupt and officials capricious;” concluding that “the EU’s emphasis on observance of laws and diplomatic conventions is simply also a good business strategy” (Kobzova). As mentioned previously, The EU’s national security interests also benefits from the expansion of its values to other countries. Modern Germany has benefited immensely from the international order established after the Cold War. According to the CIA, Germany is the fifth largest economy in the world with an estimated export value of $1.547 trillion in 2014 (CIA). This economic prosperity has been achieved peacefully despite the country’s relative lack of natural resources. Maintaining the international status quo is therefore a critical national interest for the Federal Republic of Germany. The German foreign policy strategy for securing stability has been to incorporate other countries into its economic structure and thereby promote its democratic values in an effort to integrate those countries in the international order. While Germany is currently in a fortunate situation where its national interests are complimented by its core values, the recent experience
  • 12. 12 with the setbacks regarding Russia’s integration could potentially upset the harmonious relationship between German values and national interests.
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  • 14. 14 Speck, Ulrich. "German Power and the Ukraine Conflict." March 2015. Carnegie Europe. Web. 20 September 2015. Szabo, Stephen. Germany, Russia, and the Rise of Geo-Economics. London: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2014. Web. Wegner, Helmut. "West German Ostpolitik." The RUSI Journal (1990): 36-38. Web.