Albania Security Study
- 2. ! 2!
) ) Albania)Security)Study)
Table)of)Contents)
)
)
)
)
Executive)Summary)–)Overall)Estimate................................................................3(
(
•! Figure((1)(Map(of(Albania(
•! Figure((2)(Prevalence(of(Bribery(
(
Intelligence)Collection)Plan)(ICP)..........................................................................6(
(
•! ICP(Chart(
(
Link)Analysis)–)Geography)...............................................................................)11)
(
•! Link(Chart((Figure(3)(
(
Intelligence)Preparation)of)the)Battlefield)(IPB)..................................................12(
(
•! Figure((4)(Albanian(Uniformed(Personnel(in(Peacekeeping(Missions(
•! Figure((5(&(6)(IPB(Imagery(
(
Analysis)of)Competing)Hypothesis)(ACH).............................................................17(
(
•! Figure((7)(Trade(Balance(Graphic(
•! Figure((8)(ACH(Hypotheses(Inconsistencies((
((
Contact)Page(.........................................................................................................(22)
)
)
)
Cover(graphic(source:(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Albania(
( (
- 4. ! 4!
Relationships)in)the)Balkan)region)are)mending.))Prime(Ministers(of(Albania,(Serbia(and(Kosovo(
met(for(the(first(time(in(68(years(marking(a(desire(to(work(together(to(improve(ties(to(advance(
in(their(bids(to(the(EU.3
((Albania(and(Serbia(demonstrated(their(willingness(to(improve(bilateral(
relations(by(taking(steps(towards(improving(the(rights(of(their(respective(national(minorities.(
The(establishment(of(a(regular(air(link(between(Belgrade(and(Tirana(began(in(September.(
Albania(and(Kosovo(signed(a(new(declaration(on(cooperation(and(strategic(partnership(aiming(
to(boost(economic(growth.(Overall,(Albania(has(continued(to(act(as(a(constructive(partner(in(
the(region,(further(developing(bilateral(relations(with(other(enlargement(countries(and(
neighboring(EU(Member(States.(4
((
Minimizing)risks)with)corruption)and)organized)
crime)are)critical.)Albania(has(managed(to(establish(a(
strong(legal(base,(which(as(recognized(The(Albanian(
Criminal(Code(covers(all(types(of(corrupt(behavior(
(promising,(offering(or(giving(and(requesting,(
receiving(or(accepting)(and(after(the(amendments(
made(in(2004,(which(established(a(completely(new(
system(of(corruption(offences,(meets(the(
international(standards.5
(Awareness(of(corruption(
has(increased(and(businesses(rank(corruption(the(
second(highest(issue,(after(high(taxes.(The(fight(against(organized(crime(shows(a(positive(trend(
in(a(number(of(areas,(with(an(intensification(of(law(enforcement(activities,(notably(on(drug(
seizures(and(drugarelated(crimes,(and(on(economic(crime(and(trafficking(of(human(beings.(6
(
Comments:)
)
This!report!has!been!created!from!large!amounts!of!open!resources!used!in!this!Executive!
summary!and!country!stability!study!including!economic,!political,!military,!technology,!and!
social!websites,!on-line!news!sources,!in-country!blogs,!web-based!and!local!newspaper!articles,!
journals,!scholarly!databases,!government!websites,!and!research!centers.!
!!
Analyst!expertise!was!low!and!worked!alone;!however,!the!analyst!consulted!numerous!OSINT!
sources;!used!several!structured!analytic!techniques,!including!ACH;!received!feedback!on!initial!
drafts;!and!had!sufficient!time!to!complete!the!task.!This!estimate!product!attempts!to!convey!
the!stability!of!the!Albanian!government!in!many!areas.!!Despite!the!numerous!sources!with!
high!reliability!and!confidence,!this!estimate!is!not!a!complete!analysis!of!every!stabilizing!or!
destabilizing!factor!for!the!nation.!!
Source(Reliability:(9/10(
Analytic(Confidence:(8/10(
Figure'2:'Prevalence'of'Bribery)
- 6. ! 6!
Intelligence)Collection)Plan)(ICP))Plan)Z)Albania)
(
(
ID)
Source)
Name)
Type)of)
Source)
Intel)
Type) Periodicity) Purpose)
Report)
w/in)
Last)5)
Years) Utility) Title)
Source)
Rel.)
1(
Official(
Journal(of(
the(
European(
Union( Publication( OSINT( Frequent( Economic( Yes( Useful(
Legislation(that(
covers(organizations(
and(project(that(
receive(public(
money( 8(
2(
The(New(
York(Times(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( Daily( Economics( Yes( Useful(
Daily(current(
worldly(events( 8(
3(
The(Library(
of(Congress(
Educational(
Institution( OSINT( As(needed( Economics( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Database(with(
resources(on(
culture,(re:(Albania( 9(
4(
The(
Economista
Intelligence(
Unit(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( As(needed( Economics( Yes( Useful(
Albanian(index(
featuring(the(latest(
news(updates.(
Focus(on(politics(
and(world(affairs( 8(
5(
Trading(
Economics(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( As(needed( Economics( Yes( Useful(
Albanian(statistics,(
economics,(
historical(charts( 7(
6(
The(Balkan(
Insight(
Local(
newspaper/(
source( OSINT( Daily( Economics( Yes( Useful(
Breaking(news(on(
the(Balkan(
economy,(politics,(
business,(culture,(
art(&(entertainment( 7(
7(
The(World(
Bank(
Research(
Center( OSINT( Frequent( Economics( Yes( Useful(
Country(data(on(
economics,(
government(of(
Albania( 9(
8(
Google(
Earth( Other( IMINT( As(needed( Geography( Yes( Useful(
Satellite(imagery,(
geographic(profile(
of(Albania( 8(
9(
CIA(World(
Fact(book(
Gov't(
Website( IMINT( Frequent( Geography( Yes(
Highly(
Useful( CIA(Facts(on(Albania( 9(
10(
National(
Geospatial(
Intelligence(
Agency(
Gov't(
Website( IMINT( As(needed( Geography( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Geographical(
database(of(
downloadable(
country(files(
featuring(all(aspects(
of(topography( 10(
11(
The(
University(
of(Texasa
Austin(
Educational(
Institution( IMINT( As(needed( Geography( Yes( Useful(
CIA(a(produced(
maps(of(Albania( 8(
(
- 7. ! 7!
(
ID)
Source)
Name)
Type)of)
Source)
Intel)
Type) Periodicity) Purpose)
Report)
w/in)
Last)5)
Years) Utility) Title)
Source)
Rel.)
12( Interpol(
Nonagov't(
org( OSINT( Daily( Military( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Interpol(a(Albania's(
membership(page,(
includes(a(running(
blog(of(the(latest(
stories,(focused(on(
crime,(military,(
terrorism,(other(
security(matters( 10(
13(
Jane's(
Intelligence(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( Frequent( Military( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Economic,(Political,(
Military(issues( 10(
14(
Stratfor(
Global(
Intelligence(
Private(
Global(
Intelligence(
service( OSINT( As(needed( Military( Yes( Useful(
Issues(that(affect(
Albania( 9(
15(
Ebsco(Host(of(
Mercyhurst(
Library(
Educational(
Institution( OSINT( Frequent( Military( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
The(Military(and(its(
Role(in(Albania's(
Democratization.(( 10(
16(
European(
Union(
Gov't(
Website( OSINT( Frequent( Political( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Europa(is(the(official(
EU(website.(
Provides(info.(On(EU(
institutions,(
agencies(and(
bodies.( 9(
17(
Center(for(
Strategic(&(
International(
Studies(
Research(
Center( OSINT( As(needed( Politics( Yes( Useful(
Albanian(program(
page(focusing(on(
political,(economic,(
security(and(world(
affairs( 10(
18( Balkanalysis(
Indep(
News(&(
Analysis( OSINT( Daily( Politics( Yes( Useful(
Produces(local(
country(briefings,(
articles,(interviews( 9(
19( Rand(
Research(
Center( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Politics,(social,(
technology,(military,(
international(
relations,(
economics,(science,(
geography( 10(
20(
U.S.(
Department(
of(State(
Gov't(
Website( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Albanian(a(home(
page( 10(
21(
Reuters(a(
Albania(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( As(needed( Politics( Yes( Useful(
Albanian(resource(
page( 10(
22(
US(Embassy(a(
Albania(
Gov't(
Website( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Albanian(ahome(
page( 10(
( (
- 8. ! 8!
ID)
Source)
Name)
Type)of)
Source)
Intel)
Type) Periodicity) Purpose)
Report)
w/in)
Last)5)
Years) Utility) Title)
)
Source)
Rel.)
23(
Office(of(
Prime(
Minister(
Gov't(
Website(a
Albania( OSINT( Frequent( Politics( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Prime(Minister’s(
website(of(Albania( 9(
24(
Amnesty(
International(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( As(needed( Social( Yes( Useful(
Updates(on(human(
rights(issues(
around(the(world( 9(
25(
US(
Citizenship(
and(
Immigration(
Services(
Gov't(
Website( OSINT( As(needed( Social( Yes( Useful(
Homeland(
Security:((asylum(
and(patronization(
resources(for(
Albanian(citizens(
seeking(US(
citizenship( 10(
26( Google(Alerts(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( Frequent( Social( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Regular,(worlda
wide(alerts(on(
Albania,(politics,(
technology,(
international(
relations,(economy( 9(
27( The(Guardian(
Newspaper(
a(online(
source( OSINT( Frequent( Social( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Albanian(Bureau(a(
Government,(
political,(social,(
military(and(
international(
relations( 8(
28(
Albanian(
Blogger( Blog(Post( OSINT( As(needed( Social( Yes( Useful(
General(
information(on(
regional(social,(
cultural(issues(
pertaining(to(
Albania(( 8(
29(
Global(
Security.org(
Online(
News(
Source( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Factabased(
database(of(
sources(focusing(
on(world(security(
issues/reliable(
news(&(security(
information( 10(
30(
European(
Stability(
Initiative( Think(Tank(( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
A(nonaprofit(
research(and(
policy(institute(for(
South(east(Europe;(
Balkans( 9(
31(
Agency(for(
Technology(
and(
Innovation(
(ARTI)(
Gov't(
Website(a
Albania( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Albanian(science,(
technology(
website( 9(
32(
United(States(
Agency(for(
International(
Development(
Gov't(
Website( OSINT( Frequent( Technology( Yes(
Highly(
Useful(
Government(
agency(responsible(
for(foreign(aid.(
Bilateral(relations,(
Socioeconomic(
development( 9(
- 9. ! 9!
Link)Analysis)Z)Geography)
(
)
Executive)Summary:)
)
It)is)likely)that)Albania)will)remain)stable)in)the)next)24)months.)Albania’s)geography)plays)a)
vital)role)it)its)overall)national)stability.)A)vast)mix)of)rich)minerals,)natural)resources)and)
coastal)access)to)international)commerce)gives)promise,)yet)its)lack)of)infrastructure)to)
preserve)and)protect)these)resources)are)compromising)national)assets.)Without)national)
reforms)and)initiatives)to)mitigate)natural)and)manZmade)hazards,)risks)of)degradation)to)the)
environment)remain.)The)Strait)of)Otranto)is)a)key)point)linking)the)Adriatic)and)Ionian)seas,)
with)a)route)for)tourism)and)commerce.)Chances)are)about)even)that)the)strategic)location)of)
Albania)and)the)Strait)of)Otranto)could)create)a)destabilizing)gateway)of)organized)crime)and)
drug)trafficking)from)Italy,)Turkey)into)southern)Europe.))
)
Discussion:(
(
Development)of)strategies)and)policy’s)are)making)an)impact)on)natural)resources)and)
reduction)of)manZmade)hazards.)Degradation(caused(by(land(reclamation,(mining(and(
industrial(pollution(resources(during(the(country’s(postacommunist(transition(era(resulted(in(
considerable(damage(to(forests(and(pastures.(High(rates(of(reforestation(were(due(to(illegal(
logging,(increased(use(of(forests(for(fuelawood,(uncontrolled(harvesting(and(overgrazing(of(
forests(and(pastures,(and(poor(forest(management.1
(
((
Reforms(and(improvement(have(resulted(in(forestry,(watershed,(and(agriculture(and(carbon(
sequestration(measures(in(degraded(lands(through(protection(measures.(Sustainable,(
community(based(natural(resource(management(will(lead(to(higher(productivity,(incomes(and(
improvements(in(land(and(water(resources(for(the(public(sector.(2
((The(World(Bank(is(
supporting(forest(and(pasture(management(planning(and(investment(in(240(Local(Government(
Units((LGUs)(through(the(National(Resource(Development(Project((NRDP)(to(restore(the(forests(
and(land(of(Albania.3
(
(
Air(pollution,(municipal(solid(waste(management(and(access(to(clean(water(and(improved(
sanitation(remain(the(most(pressing(challenges(for(Albania(according(to(the(second(
Environmental(Performance(Review(of(Albania,(performed(by(the(United(Nations(Economic(
Commission(for(Europe((UNECE).(4
(
)
Environmental)and)Coastal)development)are)important)aspects)to)tourism.)Albania(is(
participating(in(the(Program(of(Work(on(Protected(Areas((POWPA)(and(Coastal(Zone(
Management,(including(a(comprehensive(ecological(gap(assessment(for(the(protected(area(
system(and(fostering(a(constructive(policy(environment(to(help(preserve(marine(protected(
areas.5
(Tourism(in(Albania(has(a(relatively(high(potential.6
(Development(and(pressure(from(
tourism(will(grow((generated(by(domestic,(as(well(as(by(international(investors)(it(is(important(
- 10. ! 10!
that(both(local(and(national(authorities(make(efforts(to(safeguard(the(environmental(potential(
of(the(coastal(area(to(secure(the(environmental(sound(development(of(tourism(and(so(
guarantee(longaterm(sustainable(and(the(socioaeconomic(security(of(the(coastal(population.(
(
The)Balkan)Route)is)a)corridor)for)drug)trafficking.)Even(though(the(quantity(of(drugs(has(come(
down(in(recent(years,(the(Balkan(route,(through(Albania(is(still(one(of(the(world’s(main,(
important(routes(for(smuggling(drugs,(especially(heroin(from(Afghanistan.(Large(single(seizures(
of(heroin(upstream(and(in(destination(markets(suggest(that(while(large(shipments(are(moving(
through(SouthaEastern(Europe,(there(appears(to(be(less(such(actionable(information(in(the(
region(itself.(This(is(an(area(of(vulnerability(in(the(context(of(disappearing(internal(borders(
resulting(from(European(Union((EU)(accession(and(accelerating(regional(integration.(7
(Cocaine(
constitutes(a(small(percentage(of(drugs(trafficked(through(Albania(and(entering(the(country(by(
land,(seaports(and(airport.(Cannabis(grows(easily(in(Albania(in(many(areas,(especially(Fier,(Vlora,(
and(Shkodra(Tropoja.((8
(
)
Comments:)
!
Analyst’s!expertise!was!low;!the!complexity!of!the!subject!matter!is!high!and!the!analyst!worked!
alone.!!Sources!collected!came!from!a!variety!of!open!academic!and!news!sources,!including!
government!websites,!online!databases,!newspaper!articles,!Google!Earth!and!institutional!
websites.!!
(
Source(Reliability:(8/10(
Analytic(Confidence:(8/10(
(
(
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1!http://www.thegef.org/gef/content/naturalaresourcesadevelopmentaalbaniaasupportingaparticipatoryaforesta
management(
2
(http://www.unafoodsecurity.org/node/638(
3
(http://www.unafoodsecurity.org/node/638(
4
(http://bit.ly/1tblPrF((
5
(http://www.thegef.org/gef/node/3281(
6
(http://pastandpresent.al/en/coast(
7
(http://www.unodc.org/documents/dataaandaanalysis/Studies/Illicit_DT_through_SEE_REPORT_2014_web.pdf(
8
(http://www.academia.edu/5082774/DRUG_PRODUCTION_AND_TRAFFICKING_IN_ALBANIA(
!
(
(
(
(
) )
- 12. ! 12!
Intelligence)Preparation)of)the)Battlefield)(IPB))Analysis)&)Terrain)
(
)
Executive)Summary:(
(
Joining)the)North)Atlantic)Treaty)Organization)(NATO))in)2009,)Albania)is)highly)likely)to)be)
stable)in)24)months.))Albania’s)military)doctrine)is)integrating)towards)the)NATO)model)and)
regional)cooperation)among)neighboring)Balkan)countries.)The)restructured)military)forces)
are)focused)on)limited)joint)operations,)humanitarian)aid,)rapid)relief)due)to)natural)disasters)
and)responsiveness)to)civil)emergencies.)Attack)from)an)enemy)would)be)unlikely)with)war)
risks)low,)mitigated)by)NATO)membership,)future)prospects)of)joining)the)European)Union)
(EU))and)an)alliance)with)the)United)States.)Analysis)of)the)terrain)reveals)several)NoZGo)
areas)along)the)north,)east)and)southern)borders)due)to)dense)forest;)lakes,)rivers,)and)
rugged)mountainous)ranges)are)significant)obstacles)to)navigate)operations)for)order)of)
battle.))The)western)coastline)through)the)Strait)of)Otranto)provides)porous)avenues)of)
approach)across)mostly)flat)marshy)plains.)))
)
Discussion:)
NATO)membership)provides)longZterm)stability)towards)future)European)Union)(EU))
accession.))Albania’s(membership(in(NATO(promises(that(the(country(will(remain(politically(
strong(and(secure(from(external(attack(and(cements(its(efforts(to(attain(prosperity(in(the(end.(1
((
Since(Albania(joined(NATO,(its(focus(has(been(on(developing(military(capabilities(and(
institutional(structures(that(would(enable(its(participation(in(NATOaled(military(operations.((This(
step(of(Albania’s(integration(into(EuroaAtlantic(structures(constitutes(one(of(the(most(important(
current(national(priorities(for(the(country.2
(
Military)forces)operate)with)a)new)NATO)westernZstyle)structure.)With(bilateral(and(
multilateral(assistance,(the(armed(forces(are(transitioning(to(a(smaller,(voluntary,(professional(
military.3
(Albania(worked(with(the(international(community(to(restructure(its(armed(forces(and(
strengthen(democratic(structures,(including(addressing(military(reforms,(in(its(pursuit(of(NATO(
membership.(Albania(currently(has(8,500(active(defense(personnel,(including(civilians,(from(
which(only(2,500(are(ready(for(combat,(while(the(other(two(thirds(are(executive(and(supporting(
staff.(Albania(spends(less(than(1.5%(of(its(GDP(on(the(defense(budget.(4
(
)
A)collective,)regional,)western)Balkans)approach)aims)to)strengthen)its)defense)reforms,)
strengthen)military)to)military)cooperation,)and)operations.))Albania(currently(holds(the(
presidency(of(The(“Adriatic(Chart”((A5)(EuroaAtlantic(integration(of(the(region.((This(initiative(is(
military(cooperation(between(the(countries,(focused(on(exercises,(joint(training(operations,(and(
increasing(of(the(capacity(for(airspace.(The(Ministry(of(Defense(for(Albania(stressed(that(
- 13. ! 13!
regional(cooperation(should(focus(on(the(concept(of(“Smart(Defense”(and(use(of(joint(defense(
assets(in(cases(of(emergencies.(5
(
(
(
(((((Figure(4:((Albanian(Uniformed(Personnel(in(Peacekeeping(Operations(
Albania’s(contribution(to(peacekeeping(is(through(NATO,(the(EU,(and(the(UN,(as(well(as(joint(
coalitions(with(strategic(partners.((Albania’s(participation(to(United(Nations((UN)(peacekeeping(
is(a(lower(priority,(and(not(Albania’s(immediate(security(and(foreign(policy(interest.(6
((
External)threat)to)national)security)is)low.((Albania’s(commitment(to(uphold(NATO’s(military(
standards(is(strong.(In(the(event(of(attack,(no(Albanian(defensive(combat(forces(exist,(but(NATO(
having(responsibility(for(security,(supports(Albanian(air(space.(No(military(reserves(exist.((
Internal(security(provides(border(protection,(law(and(maritime(counterasmuggling(operations.(7
(
Albania’s)geography)provides)natural)defensive)borders.)Three(sets(of(mountain(ranges((
(Pindus,(Korab,(Northern(Alps),(bordering(three(countries,(Greece,(Kosovo(and(Montenegro,(
give(a(defensive(border(insulating(Albania(from(attack.(8
(
(
Comments:)
Sources!consulted!are!highly!reliable.!The!analysis!and!analytical!confidence!of!the!IPB!are!8/10.!!!!
The!sources!used!were!OSINT,!but!also!came!from!Jane’s!Intelligence,!the!Central!Intelligence!
Agency!(CIA),!Google!Earth,!and!organizational!websites!focusing!on!military!capabilities!of!
foreign!nations!including!Albania.!((
(
Source(Reliability:((9/10(
Analytic(Confidence:((8/10(
(
(
- 17. ! 17!
Analysis)of)Competing)Hypothesis)(ACH))Matrix)))
(
(
Executive)Summary:)
(
It)is)probable)Albania)will)continue)to)be)stable)in)the)next)24)months.)With)accession)into)
the)European)Union)in)2009,)major)government)reformations)are)having)effects)on)economic)
factors,)politics,)military,)technology,)geography)and)environmental)sectors.))Without)these)
directional)changes,)Albania’s)environmental)hazards)and)natural)disasters)pose)significant)
risk)to)its)natural)resources,)making)up)half)its)Gross)Domestic)product)(GDP).))Key)internal)
threats)to)security)remain)because)of)corruption,)organized)crime,)transnational)drugs,)
trafficking,)and)weapons)smuggling.))Despite)these)issues,)the)country’s)overall)outlook)is)
positive.)
)
Discussion:)
Albania)is)making)positive,)developmental)steps)towards)changing)its)governance.((Albania’s(
foreign(trade(is(liberal(and(opened(its(markets(to(global(and(foreign(investment.((Reforms(in(
public(administration(advanced,(with(the(Civil(Service(Law(coming(into(effect.(Strengthening(the(
legislative(framework(and(policy(coordination(improved(monitoring(at(the(central(level.1
(
Albania(joined(the(Word(Trade(Organization((WTO)(in(2000.((Since(then,(the(Albanian(economic(
growth(has(been(one(of(the(highest(among(the(countries(of(the(region(coupled(with(a(low(
inflation(rate.(GPD(has(grown(by(an(average(of(6%(per(year.((
In(2013,(Albania(exported(about(246(billion(ALL(of(goods,(with(an(increase(of(15%(from(previous(
year.(Even(though(exports(have(increased,(the(trade(deficit(has(been(deepening.2
(
(
))Figure)7:)Trade)Balance)1993Z2013)
Albania)is)a)disaster)prone)country)and)exposed)to)natural)and)manZmade)origins.(Natural(
risks(include(geologic((earthquakes,(rock(falls(and(landslides);(hydroameteorological((flooding(
- 18. ! 18!
and(torrential(rains,(droughts,(snowstorms,(high(snowfall(and(windstorms);(biophysical((forest(
fires(and(epidemics);(and(avalanches.(Albania(ranks(41st(in(the(world(in(terms(of(vulnerability(to(
landslides,(43rd(in(terms(of(earthquakes(and(58th(in(terms(of(drought(risks.(The(cost(of(
damages(has(a(negative(impact(on(the(macroeconomic(situation(of(the(country.3
((
Albania(has(environmental(problems(that(include(the(deterioration(of(bioadiversity(
(deforestation(and(loss(of(flora(and(fauna);(soil(erosion;(specific(sectorial(problems((water,(air(
and(land(pollution);(and(the(continued(existence(of(higharisk(areas((hot(spots)(with(respect(to(
environmental(pollution.(4
)
Progress)in)AntiZcorruption)policies)and)fight)against)organized)crime)are)developing.)The(
Albanian(authorities(have(strengthened(the(legal(and(institutional(antiacorruption(framework.(
An(appointment(of(a(National(AntiaCorruption(Coordinator(and(a(network(of(antiacorruption(
focal(points(in(all(line(ministries(were(established.(The(introduction(of(key(legislation(for(State(
Police(and(Prosecution(office(covering(training(and(the(control(of(firearms(is(waiting(for(
adoption.(Police(have(conducted(successful(operations(against(narcotics,(human(trafficking,(
money(laundering(and(seizures(of(explosives.(5
(
(
The!PARC!ACH!software!is!an!analyst!tool!used!to!
demonstrate!evidence!of!two!competing!hypothesis!as!
“Consistent”!or!“Inconsistent”!with!the!likelihood!of!
Albania’s!stability!in!the!next!12!to!24!months.!The!
graph!below!(Figure!8)!depicts!my!ACH!analysis,!that!
Albania!would!be!highly!likely!to!remain!stable!based!on!
the!level!of!inconsistency!than!the!opposing!hypothesis.!!
) ) (
Comments:)
The!analyst!utilized!the!ACH!tool,!which!does!not!
produce!analytic!certainty,!but!does!create!a!statistical!
measurement!that!helps!the!analysis!process!from!human!bias!and!mindset.!Analyst!expertise!
was!low!and!OSINT!was!used;!along!with!many!sources!to!compile!the!evidence!in!the!ACH!
matrices!including!newspaper!articles,!CIA!World!FactBook,!Jane’s!Intelligence,!journal!articles,!
government!websites,!academic,!organizational,!corporate!and!economic!websites.!!
(
Source(Reliability:((8/10(
Analytic(Confidence:((8/10(
(
(
(
Figure'8:''Inconsistencies'of'Hypotheses'