2. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 2
Albania: Executive Summary
• Likely to remain stable (12-24 mo)
• 2014: Achieved “Candidacy” stage
in bid for European Union
membership
• 2013: Socialist party in power
• Economy slow, but improving
• Potentially destabilizing influences:
– Serbia objection to Albanian support of
Kosovo independence
– Undeveloped country infrastructure
– Corruption and organized crime
3. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 3
Stabilizers: NATO Membership
• 2009: NATO membership granted
• 2014: Gateway to European Union
membership
• Instrument for social and economic
development
• Provides political and civilian
stability
• Estimate: 10 years for Albanian
ascension into (EU)
4. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 4
Stabilizers:
Governmental & Judicial Reform
• 2013: Socialist Party re-establishes
power over Democratic Party
• Engaged with “Venice Commission”
to enhance Albanian Judicial
System
• EU commission cites “reform of
judiciary” and “fight against
corruption and organized crime”
• National Anti-corruption coordinator
appointed
• Major reforms in public
administration, policy development
Socialists Democrats
5. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 5
Albanian Natural Resources
• Significant diversity of
natural resources in
relatively small country
• Limited infrastructure and
poor coordination prevent
monetization
• Petroleum
• Natural Gus
• Hydropower
• Bauxite
• Chromite
• Copper
• Nickel
• Salt
• Timber
• Coal
• Iron
6. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 6
Albanian Geography
• 312km of Western coastline from
Ionian to Adriatic seas
• Defensive mountainous borders
to the North, South and East
• Coastal Plains with seasonal
flooding and droughts
• Strait of Otranto presents easy
waterborne access by drug
traffickers and potential security
threats
7. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 7
Threats: Organized Crime
• Ranked #3 in 2014
• Improvement over
2012 when Albania
ranked #1 most
corrupt country in
Europe
#3: “Corruption is a serious
issue in Albania. Politicians
blame each other for the
current state of affairs. With
the current level of
corruption, economic growth
would be a major challenge.”
8. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 8
Threats: Corruption
• Albanian political will to fight
corruption
• Appointment of National
Anti- Corruption Coordinator
• Legal amendments adopted
to address offences
• Albania’s Transparency
International Corruption
Perception Index (2013)
score = 31
9. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 9
Relations with Serbia
• First meeting in 68 yrs. with
Serbian Prime Minister
Vucic and Edi Rama
• Willingness to improve
bilateral relations
• Use EU process as a
common denominator for
both countries interests
• Albania acting as a
constructive regional partner Historic meeting between Edi
Rama, Prime Minister of Albania
(left) with Serbian Prime Minister
Vucic in Belgrade.
10. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 10
Conclusion:
• Albania will likely remain stable in the next 24 months
• Albania only NATO member in the Western Balkans,
granted candidate status by European Union (EU)
• Major reform processes, policy development enacted in
all areas of government
• Economy and environment improving slowly, despite
poor infrastructure
• Corruption and Organized crime a major problem
(per EU report - October 2014)
• Relations with Serbia – Cooperative communication
• Overall country outlook – Positive
11. [File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 11
Briefer: Stephanie Morrison
sbmorrison@austin.rr.com
It is likely Albania will continue to increase its stability in the next 12 to 24 months. European Union accession (2009) and candidacy (2014) continue to be stabilizing factors that are affecting the country in positive ways. Political elections (2013) have swept back into power the Socialist party and their political will and efforts to reform all levels of government, economy and the environment are slow, but steadily improving. Albania’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence and statehood causes strained relations with Serbia creating tension in the Balkan region, but recent events are showing signs of change. Challenges limiting the country’s economic growth and foreign investment are a poor internal infrastructure. Poised for progress, Albania needs to minimize negative factors that hinder EU progression; with the two biggest being corruption and organized crime.
The decision of the European Council of June 2014 to grant Albania candidate status is recognition for the reform steps undertaken. It is also an encouragement to step up the pace of reforms. In November 2013, the Commission launched a High Level Dialogue with Albania to help the country to maintain focus on its EU integration process and to monitor reform progress under the key priorities identified for the opening of accession negotiations. In May 2014 Albania adopted a roadmap laying down and structuring its planned reforms under the key priorities.
Albanian NATO membership granted in 2009 will strengthen NATO’s security presence and be a stabilizing force in an unstable region. NATO ascension is a sign of confidence in Albania’s political stability and popular opinion toward U.S. and European institutions. NATO ascension is widely seen as a milestone on the road to European Union (EU) membership – the most important step a country can take toward inclusion in the family of Europe’s stable, liberal democracies. Albania has made positive political and economic progress in recent years, but is at least 10 years away from full EU accession.
Albania took further steps towards the reform of the judiciary by engaging with the Venice Commission in view of enhancing the independence, accountability and professionalism of the judicial system and by starting to draft the 2014-2020 judicial reform strategy. Some steps were made to improve the accountability and transparency of the judiciary, including through legislative amendments regulating the immunities of judges and prosecutors.
The fight against organized crime shows a positive trend in a number of areas, with an intensification of law enforcement activities including on drug seizures and drug-related crimes, economic crime, and trafficking of human beings. In particular, the authorities have taken serious steps to fight cultivation and trafficking of cannabis, which remains a serious concern, most notably through a major police operation in the village of
More sustainable, community-based natural resource management in Albania will lead to enhanced productivity, incomes, and, overall, improvements in land and water resources for the public sector. The NRDP has been at the forefront of developing Payment for Environmental Services (PES) and mitigation against climate change by providing a scheme to finance carbon sequestration on commune forest land through payments from the Bio Carbon Fund to local actors. Additional research is needed to quantify the benefits and costs of providing these services, with the ultimate goal of ensuring they are self financing in the long term. In addition, follow-up operations could take advantage of European Union accession funds provided for rural development to strengthen further the capacities of forest users’ associations.
With the exception of the coastline, all Albanian borders are artificial. They were established in principle at the 1912-1913 conference of ambassadors in London.
There are four main geographical regions in Albania: theNorthern Mountain Range (Albanian: Krahina Malore Veriore) (the Albanian part of the Prokletije), the Southern Mountain Range, the Western Lowlands (Albanian: Ultësira Bregdetare), and the Central Mountain Range (Albanian: Krahina Malore Qendrore).
In Albania's far north and the northeast mountainous sections, the border connects high points and follows mountain ridges through the largely inaccessible Prokletije, and further south Bjeshkët e Namuna (The Accursed Mountains).
The 70% of the country that is mountainous is rugged and often inaccessible. The remainder, an alluvial plain, receives precipitation seasonally, is poorly drained, and is alternately arid or flooded. Much of the plain's soil is of poor quality. Far from offering a relief from the difficult interior terrain, the alluvial plain is often as inhospitable as the mountains
Minimizing risks with corruption and organized crime are critical. Albania has managed to establish a strong legal base, which as recognized The Albanian Criminal Code covers all types of corrupt behavior (promising, offering or giving and requesting, receiving or accepting) and after the amendments made in 2004, which established a completely new system of corruption offences, meets the international standards. Awareness of corruption has increased and businesses rank corruption the 2nd highest issue, after high taxes.
![[File Name or Event] • Emerson Confidential • 2/28/2016 • Slide 2
Albania: Executive Summary
• Likely to remain stable (12-24 mo)
• 2014: Achieved “Candidacy” stage
in bid for European Union
membership
• 2013: Socialist party in power
• Economy slow, but improving
• Potentially destabilizing influences:
– Serbia objection to Albanian support of
Kosovo independence
– Undeveloped country infrastructure
– Corruption and organized crime](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)