covid scenarios for organizations

1. Uncertainty B:
Competence of government managing the Covid crises
Uncertainty
A:
New
Covid
Variant
Scenario – 2
Collapse
Scenario – 3
Equilibrium
Scenario – 1
Continuation
Scenario – 4
Transformation
Scenario-2 Collapse
Low
Low
High
High High
Scenario-3 Equilibrium
Scenario-4 Transformation
Scenario-1 Continuation
In scenario-1 the chance of new Covid variant is
low and the competency of Govt. handling the
crises is also low, which will represent a
continuation of the transition toward managing
COVID-19 as an endemic disease.
• Relatively constrained disease dynamics
• Business going back to pre pandemic levels
• Governments turn to surveillance and
monitoring tools
In scenario-2 the chance of new Covid variant is
high and the competency of Govt. handling the
crises is low, which will represent a fear, social
unrest, collapse in economic activity.
• COVID-19 disease, continues to mutate and
evolve, evading eradication.
• Governments imposes lockdown and
restrictions.
• Business go bankrupt, takeovers and mergers
In scenario-3 the chance of new Covid variant is high
and the competency of Govt. handling the crises is
also high, which will represent awareness in
community to co-exist with the virus and ensure
economic continuity.
• Businesses will leverage Technology and online
presence.
• Govt. to provide relief funds, tax cuts, subsidies,
credit facilities and employment support
lowering the economic slowdown impact.
In scenario-4 the chance of new Covid variant is low
and the competency of Govt. handling the crises is
high, which will now transform the Economy due to
trust and support of Govt. by Investments and
Policies and fast-tracking recovery.
• Tourism reinvented; creativity; new concepts
and business models; smart and sustainable
hotels; Virtual reality.
• Govt. supporting local tourism and robust
demand. Also providing cheaper loans to
MSME’s.
Scenario Building for Tourism and Hospitality Industry

2. Scenario – 1
Continuation
Scenario Description: The COVID pandemic shakes the society and the economy due to poor managing of the crises by the Govt. people lives are lost and due to
lockdowns long term impact is slow down in economic activities. With low probability of new variant, the scenario represents a continuation of the transition toward
managing COVID-19 as an endemic disease.
Scenario Outcome:
• People will have bias of assuming the COVID as of like a common flu and may drop their guards.
• Govt. may fall for the bandwagon effect where it may follow the economy reopening strategy of other countries as it had helped them to recover fast.
• There will be over crowd in the hotels and tourist places, triggering manpower crises to manage the sudden increase in demand.
• There can be more accidents and miss happening than the virus infections due to increased level of outdoor activities may result overcrowding at tourist places
resulting in pressure on the road and other infrastructure which is in line to availability bias.
• Outcome bias may shift the Government to mere surveillance and monitoring mode for tracking the virus infections, as they may assume that earlier efforts
made by them were sufficient to contain the infection rate.
1. New COVID variant chances – Low
2. Govt. Competence to manage crises – Low

3. Scenario – 2
Collapse
1. New COVID variant chances – High
2. Govt. Competence to manage crises – Low
Scenario Description: New variant will create havoc in society as the vaccination or hard immunity developed will not be the up to mark level to combat with the new
variant. Govt also not competent to manage the overall system as fast as the outbreak of the new virus. This will restrict business and reduce economic activities and
hence overall economy will collapse.
Scenario Outcome:
• People unlikely to step outside and interact with anyone due to fear of the virus, making judgement based on the availability heuristic bias.
• Due to anchoring bias, people expect impose of lockdown & restriction, so they hoard domestic consumables. Govt based have the outcome bias based on the
result of earlier results impose lockdown and restrictions resulting in travelling restrictions and slower economy.
• Small businesses may go Bankrupt, other may be taken over by giant businesses also mergers of business may happen.
• Hotel and tourism sector sinks, associated employee will go jobless leading to unemployment and distress.
• Businesses and Govts. will rely on digital platforms for meetings. Booking of itinerary will be through digital platforms only.

4. Scenario – 3
Equilibrium
1. New COVID variant chances – High
2. Govt. Competence to manage crises – High
Scenario Description:
Covid is at its peak but not to worry as Govt will be taking support of technology with integrated online platform designed to fight against it. This will set new
benchmark & will showcase new roadmap to rest of the world .
Scenario Outcome:
• Govt may use media as Information bias stating only better part and public will not have any panic situation during the process .
• Additional youth energy needed to help old age and other segments of citizens who are not so technology friendly and not adaptive for fast changes.
• Cost of living standards will be reach to new heights as the whole new technological eco-system is designed for 1st time, but later partial cost will be recovered
by selling this technology to rest of world or underdeveloped continents which will lead to a new business model .
• Tourist will enjoy a new flavor of hospitality & experts of other industries (like digital sector , advance pharma sector ) will have wider profits from this sector

5. Scenario – 4
Transformation
Scenario Description: The COVID pandemic shakes the society and the economy but the effective response from the health system and Govt. response managed to
cater through the crises. Even though there are long term impact of slow economic activities and disruption in supply and demand side, Govt. is willing to get the
economy back of track.
Scenario Outcome:
• New Mantra for the business is to Adapt, agile, survive & thrive.
• Tourism reinvented; creativity; new concepts and business models; smart and sustainable hotels; Virtual reality.
• Govt. to make the process of e-Visas and visa on arrival more seamless.
• Govt. shifts focus on domestic demand with quality domestic alternative promoting regional tourism and diversifying its portfolio.
• Govt. and Industry promoting new segments of tourism like Medical, Wellness, Adventure, Heritage, Pilgrimage and Eco-tourism.
• Industry adopting digitization and leveraging new technologies, thus creating new jobs and skilled workforce.
1. New COVID variant chances – Low
2. Govt. Competence to manage crises – High