Covid-19 pandemic is a situation of bad lack meeting unpreparedness . A pandemic struck an over-leveraged and weak global economy; and led to the triadic impact on global health, economy and social dynamics within our societies.

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Covid-19 Triadic Impact & The Way Forward
May 2020
Covidonomics Summarized

2. 2
TABLE OF CONTENT
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 6
Section 4
Section 5
• Contextualizing Covid-19
• Health Impact of Covid-19
• Social Impact of Covid-19
• Economic Impact of Covid-19
• Way Forward for the Economy
• Way Forward for Businesses

3. Covid-19 pandemic is a situation of bad lack meeting unpreparedness
A pandemic struck an over-leveraged and weak global economy;
And led to the triadic impact on global health, economy and social dynamics within our
societies
CONTEXTUALIZING COVID-19
HEALTH CRISIS SOCIAL IMPACT ECONOMIC SHOCK

4. 4
HEALTH CRISIS
4.8M
4.8 M – number of Covid-19 cases across
the world; with 88K confirmed cases in
Africa - and Kenya having 912 confirmed
cases as of 18th May 2020
• Africa accounts for ~1.81% of the global Covid-19 cases; ~1.81% of
the recoveries and only ~0.88% of the total Covid-19 deaths
globally
GLOBAL
AFRICA
KENYA
• 1.8M Covid-19 recoveries cases
reported globally
• 38.9% - recoveries as a percentage of
global cases
• 34k Covid-19 recoveries cases
reported in Africa
• 38.9% - recoveries as a percentage of
Africa cases
• 336 Covid-19 recoveries cases
reported in Kenya
• 36.8% - recoveries as a percentage of
Kenya cases
COVID-19 CASES
COVID-19 DEATHS
COVID-19 RECOVERIES
• Kenya accounts for ~1.04% of Covid-19 cases in Africa; ~0.98%
of the recoveries and ~1.78% of the total Covid-19 deaths across
the continent
318K
318K – number of Covid-19 deaths across
the world; with 2.8k reported deaths in
Africa - and Kenya having 50 reported
deaths as of 18th May 2020
Sources;: World Health Organization; Worldometer; World Bank; Fie-Consult Analysis

5. People getting more conscious of their
personal space as a result of the social
distancing practice
Improvements in personal hygiene and
hygiene in public spaces
Positive Impact
Stress & depression as a result of business
closures, job losses and hanging economic
uncertainty
Weakening social cohesion as people loss
physical contact
Negative Impact
SOCIAL IMPACT
Sources;: Fie-Consult Analysis

6. 6
1.7%
• 1.7% - avg drop in global GDP in 2020
as a result of Covid-19 pandemic
• Best case – 0.9% ; worst case 2.5%
drop
• Global GDP estimated to drop by USD 2.15 trillion in the worst case
scenario as a result of the business disruptions caused by the
Covid-19 pandemic
• By extrapolation; the GDP of Kenya will shed USD 2.23 billion in the
worst case scenario - equivalent to KES 222.5 billion. Could be
higher due to a weaker economy
DROP IN GLOBAL GDP
DROP IN GLOBAL FDIs
DROP IN M&As
LOST EXPORT EARNINGS IN AFRICA
35%
• 35% - avg drop in global FDI in 2020 as
a result of Covid-19 pandemic
• Low case – 30% ; worst case 40%
drop
500B
• USD 500 B- estimated cost to Africa
as a result of loss of export earnings in
due to supply chains disruptions and
lockdowns
70%
• 70% - avg drop in global Mergers &
Acquisitions in Q1 of2020 as a result of
Covid-19 pandemic
ECONOMIC IMPACT
Notes: FDI – Foreign Direct Investments
Sources;: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); Fie-Consult Analysis

7. 7Sources;: Fie-Consult Analysis
ECONOMIC IMPACT
POSITVE IMPACT
▪ Costs and time savings
▪ Adoption of digital tools for
business
WORKING FROM HOME DYNAMICS
NEGATIVE IMPACT
▪ Decline in employee performance
▪ Disruption in organizational
cultures & team dynamics
• Working from home is here to stay for most businesses
• Shifting to digital workplaces & remote connectivity is the new
normal
▪ Cashflows destabilized
▪ Operations disorganized
IMPACT ON BUSINESSES
▪ Business models being disrupted
▪ Businesses going bankrupt
CRISIS MODE ACTIVATED!
IMPACT ON SECTORS
LOSERS WINNERS
Airlines, trains & cruise ships
Tourism
Oil & Gas
Investment Banking
Traditional retail
Professional sports &
entertainment
Cinemas
E-commerce marketplaces
Pharmaceuticals
Logistics/delivery
Video conferencing
Entertainment streaming
Gaming/eSports
Food & Agriculture
Telecommunication
IN-BETWEENERS
Banking
Healthcare
Manufacturing

8. 8
WAY FORWARD - ECONOMY
FISCAL POLICIES INTEVENTIONS
Expansionary fiscal policies being tested include:
• Cutting taxes
• Increasing government expenditure
• Cash transfers
MONETARY POLICIES INTERVENTIONS
Expansionary monetary policies being tested include:
• Lowering central banks interest rates
• Lowering reserve requirements for banks
• Quantitative easing
DEBT INTERVENTIONS
Debt restructuring
• Negotiating for moratoriums on current debts
New debt
• Concessional debt from development finance
institutions to fund economic recovery
MARSHALL PLAN FOR HEALTH RECOVERY
USD 500 billion in Official Development Assistance (ODA)
Funds to be disbursed as grants for:
• Emergency health services
• Social relief programmes
Sources;: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); Fie-Consult Analysis

9. Cashflows optimization
Risk management
Operations restructuring
Talent management
BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANS
Business model re-designing
Business growth strategy re-alignment
External capital injection
Business recovery management
BUSINESS RECOVERY STRATEGIES
WAY FORWARD - BUSINESSES
Sources;: Fie-Consult Analysis

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