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Trust in numbers in the climate arena – the 2 degrees target as a “black-box” Stefan C. Aykut Centre Alexandre Koyr é EHESS / CNRS / MNHN / IFRIS
Research questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Research questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why focussing on numbers?
Some Literature ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
short political history
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Appearance …
[object Object],[object Object]
Where do the two degrees come from? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
…  formalization …
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
…  stabilization …
Going global again … ,[object Object],Irruption of time since the 1990s: transcient models, coupled ocean-atmospheric circulation models, sensitivity is time-dependent, and this makes scenarios possible
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
…  black-boxing
2°C ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you . Arigato .

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Trust in numbers in the climate arena: the two degrees target as a black box