This study is performed to understand the company's financial growth in terms of revenue (income), employee cost, consumption of materials, and total expenditure. The study also dives into the pre-post covid-19 statistical analysis of its revenue and profit/loss. This research shows that the company's revenue, expenses, and profit have increased in the last 50 quarters. The company incurred loss in only one quarter; however, the profit curve has seen many ups and downs but a marginal increase in the mean profit. This study reveals that the expenditures done by Cipla Ltd. under various heads are statistically different from each other. This research also shows that the company’s revenue has increased significantly after the covid-19 outbreak.
The study predicts the revenue and profit/loss for Cipla Ltd. for the next three quarters. The study is an excellent statistical analysis of financial statements of Cipla Ltd. and can be further improved with more data and predictive models.
Cipla’s- Financial Growth in Pandemic: A Statistical Analysis
1. Statistics for Management Project report
on
Cipla’s- Financial Growth in Pandemic: A Statistical
Analysis
Submitted by
Ruhila Noor Sayyed
First-year PGDM student
Under the guidance of
Dr. Jagdish Bhagwat
Submitted to
Jaipuria Institute of Management, Indore
2. Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Introduction 4
Objective of the Study 4
Methodology 4
Data collection 4
Concepts & Formulas 5
Excel Output 5
Descriptive statistics 5
Regression analysis 6
t-Test 8
ANOVA 9
Analysis & Interpretation 9
Conclusion 11
Learnings 11
3. Executive Summary
Cipla is one of the leading pharmaceutical companies in India, and it is also one of the
oldest Indian multinational companies in the pharmaceutical sector. The financial statements of
the company are released on its website every quarter and the audited statement is posted at the
end of each financial year. This study is performed to understand the financial growth of the
company in terms of revenue (income), employee cost, consumption of materials, and total
expenditure. The study also takes a dive into the pre-post covid-19 statistical analysis of the
company’s revenue and profit/loss.
The study shows that the revenue, expenditures, and profit of the company has increased
in the last 50 quarters. The company incurred loss in only one quarter, however the profit curve
has seen many ups and downs but with a marginal increase in the mean profit. The study reveals
that the expenditures done by Cipla Ltd. under different heads are statistically different from each
other. The study also shows that the company’s revenue has increased significantly after covid-19
outbreak.
The study predicts revenue and profit/loss for Cipla Ltd. for next three quarters. The study
is an excellent statistical analysis of financial statements of Cipla Ltd. and can be further
improved with more data and predictive models.
4. Introduction
Cipla is an Indian multinational firm in the pharmaceutical industry. Cipla’s operation
started in 1935 in a rented bungalow at Bombay Central. Khawja Abdul Hameid founded the
company and the aim of founding members of Chemical Industrial and Pharmaceutical
Laboratories (CIPLA) was making India self-reliant in Pharmaceutical and medicines. The
company research division was set up in the year 1952 to become self-sufficient in technological
development. Agriculture research division was also started in 1972.
The company has a wide range of products including more than 1500. Cipla mainly
develops medicines to serve cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, diabetes, arthritis,
depression and weight control including AIDS/HIV and anti-cancer drugs. The overall revenue
generated from Cipla consists of 38% from India only. As we know, India is one of the biggest
exporters of generic medicine in the world; the bulk of the business of Cipla come from selling
generic drugs.
Objective of the Study
To understand the revenue growth of Cipla pharmaceutical after the covid-19 outbreak.
Following are the details-
1. To collect data on financial statements of Cipla.
2. To apply statistical analysis models on the collected data.
3. To describe and infer the revenue growth of Cipla.
Methodology
Data collection
I collected Cipla Pharmaceutical Company financial data from its official website. Data
orders from FY 2008-09 to FY 2020-21. Revenue, expenditure, and profit/loss before tax data is
obtained from the annual and quarterly reports. I have divided the data quarterly to understand the
exact impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and other relevant events on the company. Data include
their total income, total expenditure (employee costs, material consumption, & additional
expenses), and profit/loss before tax. The value of additional expenditure is obtained from {Total
Expenditure -(Consumption of Material - Employee Cost)}.
5. Concepts & Formulas
● To study the revenue growth of Cipla and covid-19 impact on the company, I applied
multiple linear regression equations. The Total Income (Revenue) is a dependent variable,
whereas all the Expenditures (Consumption of Material, Employee Cost & Additional
Expenditure) are independent variables. The data input range is the last fifty quarters.
● For the prediction of Cipla’s Profit/loss in the post-covid-19 scenario, multiple linear
regression equations are applied. In this equation, the dependent variable is Profit/loss, and
independent variables are Total Income, Consumption of material and Employee cost.
● To know the Pre and Post Covid income t-test for unequal variances have applied because
of the massive difference of the number of quarters before and after the covid-19 outbreak.
● I used Analysis of variance to derived an average of all Expenditure (Consumption of
Material, Employee Cost & Additional Expenditure) to know the significant differences in
all the Expenditure.
Excel Output
Output tables from the excel are included below-
● Table 1. Descriptive statistics
Total Income
Consumption
of Material
Employee
Cost
Additional
Expenditure
Total
Expenditure Profit/Loss
Mean 2438.3036 726.8514 329.0192 980.4244 2036.295 402.0086
Standard
Error 127.5304244 26.33235653 27.20480506 62.9031992 112.0425732 28.89857711
Median 2.47E+03 743.055 342.81 868.885 2027.825 333.62
Mode #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Standard
Deviation 9.02E+02 1.86E+02 192.3670214 444.7927871 792.2606328 204.3437984
Sample
Variance 813200.4571 34669.65003 37005.07093 197840.6235 6.28E+05 41756.38793
Kurtosis -0.093673775 -0.595368784
-0.10052056
1 0.805539746 0.304081876 0.61970076
6. Skewness 0.645225725 0.375043331 0.529361951 1.053918944 0.748104013 0.873069844
Range 3333.53 675.32 698.85 1837.75 3185.39 9.88E+02
Minimum 1162.77 450.37 73.03 427.73 956.08 -9.93
Maximum 4496.3 1125.69 771.88 2265.48 4141.47 9.78E+02
Sum 121915.18 36342.57 16450.96 49021.22 101814.75 20100.43
Count 50 50 50 50 50 50
● Table 2. Regression analysis for Revenue forecast for Cipla
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98356
R Square 0.96739
Adjusted
R Square 0.96526
Standard
Error 168.077
Observati
ons 50
ANOVA
df SS MS F
Significan
ce F
Regressio
n 3
38547321.
6 1.30E+07 454.835 3.48E-34
Residual 46
1299500.7
7 28250
Total 49
39846822.
4
Coefficien
ts
Standard
Error t Stat P-value
Lower
95%
Upper
95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
Intercept 436.803 163.30396 2.67479 0.01032 108.0896 765.517 108.0896 765.52
7. 5
Consumpt
ion of
Material 0.82819
0.3000325
2 2.76033 0.00826 0.224256 1.43212 0.224256 1.4321
Employee
Cost 2.83029
0.5671985
9 4.98994 9.10E-06 1.688574 3.972 1.688574 3.972
Additional
Expenditu
re 0.47766
0.1855957
1 2.57367 0.01335 0.104077 0.85125 0.104077 0.8512
● Table 3. Regression analysis for Profit/loss prediction in the coming quarters
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
gression Statis
Multiple R 0.80599
R Square 0.64962
Adjusted R
Square 0.626769
Standard
Error 1.25E+02
Observation
s 50
ANOVA
df SS MS F
Significanc
e F
Regression 3 1329163 443054.2 28.42862 1.50E-10
Residual 46 716900.4 15584.79
Total 49 2046063
Coefficient
s
Standard
Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
Intercept -327.238 121.1298 -2.70155 0.009631 -571.059 -83.4162 -571.059 -83.4162
Total
Income 0.736487 0.102388 7.193078 4.68E-09 0.53039 0.942584 0.53039 0.942584
8. Consumptio
n of Material -0.29157 0.216742 -1.34525 0.185139 -0.72785 0.144707 -0.72785 0.144707
Employee
Cost -2.59742 0.466988 -5.56208 1.31E-06 -3.53742 -1.65743 -3.53742 -1.65743
● Table 4. Pre- Covid Income and Post- Covid Income analysis through "t-Test"
t-Test:
Two-Sample
Assuming
Unequal
Variances
(Huge difference in
number of quarters
before and after
Covid-19 outbreak)
Pre-Covid Income
Post-Covid
Income
Mean 2310.448298 4441.37
Variance 587826.449 836.3776
Observations 4.70E+01 3
Hypothesized
Mean
Difference 0
df 48
t Stat -18.84536649
P(T<=t)
one-tail 4.01E-24
t Critical
one-tail 1.677224196
P(T<=t)
two-tail 8.02E-24
t Critical
two-tail 2.010634758
● Table 5. The significant difference between the average of all three Expenditures
using Anova test
9. Anova:
Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
Employee
Cost 50 16450.96 329.0192 37005.07
Consumption
of Material 50 36342.57 726.8514 34669.65
Other
Expenditure 5.00E+01 49021.22 980.4244 197840.6
ANOVA
urce of Variati SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between
Groups 10781641 2 5390821 60.00572 8.87E-20 3.057621
Within
Groups 13206252 147 89838.45
Total 23987893 149
Analysis & Interpretation
● Regression analysis for Revenue forecast for Cipla.
Figure 1. Regression analysis for Revenue forecast for Cipla
10. The regression plot shows that there is a hike in revenue as well as all the independent
variables (Expenditures). It indicates that after the covid-19 outbreak, the revenue of Cipla has
increased. The linear prediction points out the revenue growth for the next three quarters. The
prediction model works even for the post-covid-19 scenario since it is based on data from the last
fifty quarters.
● Regression analysis for Profit/loss prediction in the coming quarters.
Figure 2. Regression analysis for Profit/loss prediction in the coming quarters for Cipla
The regression plot shows that there is too much variability in profit/loss as well as all the
independent variables (Revenue and Expenditures). It indicates that after the covid-19 outbreak, the
revenue of Cipla has increased marginally. The linear prediction points out the profit growth for the next
three quarters. The prediction model works even for a post-covid-19 scenario since it is based on data from
the last fifty quarters.
● Pre- Covid Income and Post- Covid Income analysis through "t-Test".
The revenue for post-covid quarters (from the third quarter of 2019-2020) are significantly
higher than pre-covid quarters (from the fourth quarter of 2007-2008 to second quarter of
2019-2020).
● The significant difference between the average of all three Expenditures using Anova test.
We can say that the additional Expenditure average is higher than the other two
Expenditure (Consumption of Material & Employee Cost). And the average of Employee cost is
minimum in all three Expenditure ( Employee cost, Consumption of Material & Other
Expenditure).
11. Conclusion
The current study is a statistical analysis of Cipla Limited financial statements from the
last fifty financial quarters. A financial quarter is a period of three months which is ranged over
April of one year to March of the following year. There are four quarters in a financial year
namely- April-June, July-September, October-December, January-March. The collected data and
statistical analysis reveal a lot of interesting insights and important statistical values about the
company’s revenue, expenditures, and profit/loss.
The revenue of Cipla limited, as well as the expenditures both, have grown near linear in
the last fifty quarters. The regression model shows that the revenue has a linear relationship with
expenditure and components of expenditure (Employee cost and Cost of materials). The statistical
analysis shows that after the covid-19 outbreak there is a tweak in the revenue of Cipla, however,
the linear prediction gives the revenue growth for the next three quarters even if the situation
normalizes. The profit/loss of the company on other hand has much more variability and has seen
many ups and downs, with only one quarter having negative value (loss). The regression model
shows that profit/loss has a linear relationship with revenue and employee cost, whereas the cost
of materials does not affect the profit/loss of Cipla limited. The statistical analysis shows that
after the covid-19 outbreak there is a marginal increase in the profit of Cipla, however, the linear
prediction gives the profit growth for the next three quarters even if the situation normalizes.
A T-test analysis assuming unequal variances shows that the revenue of Cipla limited after
the covid-19 outbreak is significantly higher than pre-covid quarters. Also, an ANOVA analysis
of expenditures of the company shows that the expenditure on Employee, Materials, and other
costs are significantly different from each other. Apart from the inferential statistics the
descriptive statistics shows that the average revenue of Cipla ltd. is around 2438 lacs and the
average profit is 402 lacs in a financial quarter. In conclusion, Cipla Ltd. is one of the leading
pharmaceuticals companies in India with increasing revenue and profit. The Covid-19 outbreak
has triggered an increase in both revenue and expenditures, but the profit has also increased
marginally and is likely to increase in coming quarters. In future the work can be expanded with
more data from other sources of expenditures, and revenues of the company to produce more
detailed key insights into company’s growth.
Learnings
While working on this project I learned how to conduct research effectively and collect
sample data. The application of a data analysis tool and conducted various tests through this tool.
It helps me to understand an exact description of data and also further developing critical thinking
and analytics skills. I learned Descriptive Analysis, t-test for two sample variances, Analysis of
variances and Regression Analysis.