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An Analysis of Twitter Usage at the
National Weather Service in
Louisville, KY
Robert Prestley
The Pennsylvania State University
Ron Steve and Kevin Deitsch
National Weather Service Louisville
November 17, 2016
Why social media?
2
3
The National Weather Service increasingly relies
on social media in operations.
2012
9 accounts
4
The National Weather Service increasingly relies
on social media in operations.
2012
9 accounts
2014
130 accounts
And over a million followers!
5
The National Weather Service increasingly relies
on social media in operations.
2012
9 accounts
2014
130 accounts
Dedicated Decision Support Services
(DSS) desk
2015
6
Our research focused on three main questions:
1. Which types of posts reach and are engaged
by users?
2. How did switch to DSS desk impact posting?
3. How does post frequency and average
reach vary in the lead-up and aftermath of a
high-impact event?
7
Methodology
• Pulled analytic data from
Twitter posts from Aug
2014 – May 2016
• Classified tweets by
category and type
• Year-on-year comparison to
assess DSS desk impact
• Investigated 10 high-impact
events (4 short-fuse, 6
long-fuse)
Above: February 16, 2015 snow – a long fuse event
Below: Kentucky Derby Day storms, May 7, 2016 – a
short fuse event
Glossary
•
8
9
Reach peaks during the winter months
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
AveragePostReach
Month - Year
25th percentile
75th percentile
Median
There are significant outliers that correspond to
“viral” posts
10
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Reach
Month - Year
Maxima
Classification Scheme
Forecast Nowcast
11
Classification Scheme
Observed Weather Storm Report
Twitter Interaction
12
Classification Scheme
Educational/Outreach Interesting
13
Forecast posts are only part of a complete social
media strategy for NWS offices
14
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Observed Weather
Technical Issues
Forecast
Twitter Interaction
Interesting
Nowcast
Educational/Outreach
Storm Report
Average Reach
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Average Engagement Rate
Photos are the best medium for posting
information.
15
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Photo Link Text
AverageEngagementRate
Posting frequency and average reach have
increased since implementation of the DSS desk
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
NumberofDays
Number of Tweets Per Day
Pre-DSS
Post-DSS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2-2.5 2.5-3 3-3.5 3.5-4 4-4.5 4.5-5
NumberofDays
Average Daily Reach, in Thousands
Pre-DSS Mean: 7.5
Pre-DSS Mean: 2013.6
Post-DSS Mean: 9.8
Percent Change: 30.7%
Post-DSS Mean: 2540.0
Percent Change: 26.1%
Engagement in long-fuse events is spread begins
sooner and ends later than for short-fuse events.
17
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
AverageImpressions
TweetsperHour
Tweet Frequency
Average Impressions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
120+ 96-120 72-96 48-72 24-48 24-Begin During End-24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120+
AverageImpressions
TweetsperHour
Time, Relative to Event Onset
Pre-Storm Post-Storm
Short-fuse
Long-fuse
Summary
• DSS desk has likely
had impact
• Photos are the best
medium
• More posts before
long-fuse events
18
Anecdotal Results
• Interaction with other offices, federal agencies,
EM, news media
• Facebook vs Twitter
• Humanize communications
19
20
Next Steps
• Greater focus on Facebook
• Sort by weather type (e.g. storm, snow, heat)
• Look at other statistics – likes, comments,
shares, retweets
• Look at how social media is used by other
NWS pages, note any differences
• Surveys on social media use for weather
information
21
Acknowledgements
• Huge thanks to my mentors: Ron Steve, Ted
Funk, and Kevin Deitsch
• Thanks also to my roommate and fellow
Hollings student Michael Dunn for driving me
around all summer!
Photo Sources: NWS Louisville, The Courier-Journal, AP Photo/Darron Cummings

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Prestley_Hollings_Presentation_20161117

  • 1. An Analysis of Twitter Usage at the National Weather Service in Louisville, KY Robert Prestley The Pennsylvania State University Ron Steve and Kevin Deitsch National Weather Service Louisville November 17, 2016
  • 3. 3 The National Weather Service increasingly relies on social media in operations. 2012 9 accounts
  • 4. 4 The National Weather Service increasingly relies on social media in operations. 2012 9 accounts 2014 130 accounts And over a million followers!
  • 5. 5 The National Weather Service increasingly relies on social media in operations. 2012 9 accounts 2014 130 accounts Dedicated Decision Support Services (DSS) desk 2015
  • 6. 6 Our research focused on three main questions: 1. Which types of posts reach and are engaged by users? 2. How did switch to DSS desk impact posting? 3. How does post frequency and average reach vary in the lead-up and aftermath of a high-impact event?
  • 7. 7 Methodology • Pulled analytic data from Twitter posts from Aug 2014 – May 2016 • Classified tweets by category and type • Year-on-year comparison to assess DSS desk impact • Investigated 10 high-impact events (4 short-fuse, 6 long-fuse) Above: February 16, 2015 snow – a long fuse event Below: Kentucky Derby Day storms, May 7, 2016 – a short fuse event
  • 9. 9 Reach peaks during the winter months 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 AveragePostReach Month - Year 25th percentile 75th percentile Median
  • 10. There are significant outliers that correspond to “viral” posts 10 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Reach Month - Year Maxima
  • 12. Classification Scheme Observed Weather Storm Report Twitter Interaction 12
  • 14. Forecast posts are only part of a complete social media strategy for NWS offices 14 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Observed Weather Technical Issues Forecast Twitter Interaction Interesting Nowcast Educational/Outreach Storm Report Average Reach 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Average Engagement Rate
  • 15. Photos are the best medium for posting information. 15 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Photo Link Text AverageEngagementRate
  • 16. Posting frequency and average reach have increased since implementation of the DSS desk 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 NumberofDays Number of Tweets Per Day Pre-DSS Post-DSS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2-2.5 2.5-3 3-3.5 3.5-4 4-4.5 4.5-5 NumberofDays Average Daily Reach, in Thousands Pre-DSS Mean: 7.5 Pre-DSS Mean: 2013.6 Post-DSS Mean: 9.8 Percent Change: 30.7% Post-DSS Mean: 2540.0 Percent Change: 26.1%
  • 17. Engagement in long-fuse events is spread begins sooner and ends later than for short-fuse events. 17 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 AverageImpressions TweetsperHour Tweet Frequency Average Impressions 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 120+ 96-120 72-96 48-72 24-48 24-Begin During End-24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120+ AverageImpressions TweetsperHour Time, Relative to Event Onset Pre-Storm Post-Storm Short-fuse Long-fuse
  • 18. Summary • DSS desk has likely had impact • Photos are the best medium • More posts before long-fuse events 18
  • 19. Anecdotal Results • Interaction with other offices, federal agencies, EM, news media • Facebook vs Twitter • Humanize communications 19
  • 20. 20 Next Steps • Greater focus on Facebook • Sort by weather type (e.g. storm, snow, heat) • Look at other statistics – likes, comments, shares, retweets • Look at how social media is used by other NWS pages, note any differences • Surveys on social media use for weather information
  • 21. 21 Acknowledgements • Huge thanks to my mentors: Ron Steve, Ted Funk, and Kevin Deitsch • Thanks also to my roommate and fellow Hollings student Michael Dunn for driving me around all summer! Photo Sources: NWS Louisville, The Courier-Journal, AP Photo/Darron Cummings