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PLACEMAKING REGENERATION RESIDENTIAL VALUES
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FOCUS ON:
EARL’S COURT2016
Earl’s Court is in the early stages of large scale
regeneration. Investments in place-making will change the
residential market in Earl’s Court over the coming years.
2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report
FIGURE 1
House price growth Index
Indexed 100=Jan 2009
Source: Knight Frank Research
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
EARLS COURT 1 MILE RADIUS
PCL INDEX
GREATER LONDON
“The Earl’s Court master-
plan is likely to see a
migration of values from
Kensington  Chelsea
further into Earl’s Court”
RIAN STRAUSS
Senior Analyst
Residential Research
FIGURE 2
Average residential values
in and around Earl’s Court
Source: Knight Frank Research  Land Registry
Residential prices across London have grown
strongly in recent years, but many areas
which have seen large-scale regeneration and
redevelopment have seen out-performance
pointing to the potential for future growth. The
inclusion of parts of Earl’s Court and Fulham in
the Knight Frank Prime Central London (PCL)
definition reflects that the area is increasingly
seen as a prime London neighbourhood.
The map below highlights the differential
between pricing in Kensington  Chelsea
compared to Hammersmith  Fulham.
The regeneration of Earl’s Court is likely to
lead to higher values moving from east to
west as the development attracts buyers
who would traditionally have focused on
Kensington and Chelsea.
From Q2 2013 Earl’s Court has seen stronger
house price growth than prime central
London as a whole and has seen a 96%
increase in house prices over the 7 years as
seen in figure 1.
OVERVIEW
Earl’s Court
Regeneration Scheme
FOCUS ON: EARL’S COURT 2016 RESEARCH
FIGURE 3
Connectivity
Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL) and key education hotspots
Public Transport
Accessibility Levels
High Connectivity
Low Connectivity
21
12
16
19
6
24
8
7
23
11
3
2
10
22
18
20
9
1
4
A
B
C
D
E
14
5 13
15
17
1 Ashbourne Independent School
2 Chelsea Academy
3 Chelsea Independent College
4 Collingham
5 Duff Miller College
6 Ealing, Hammersmith and West London College
7 Fulham College Boys' School
8 Fulham Cross Girls' School and Language College
9 Holland Park School
10 Kensington and Chelsea College
11 Lady Margaret School
12 Latymer Upper School
13 Lycee Francais Charles de Gaulle
14 Mander Portman Woodward School
15 Queen's Gate School
16 Sacred Heart High School
17 Saint Thomas More Language College
18 St James Senior Girls' School
19 St Paul's Girls' School
20 The Cardinal Vaughan Memorial RC School
21 The Godolphin and Latymer School
22 The London Oratory School
23 The Moat School
24 William Morris Sixth Form
EARL’S
COURT
CONNECTIVITY
The adjacent map shows the level of connectivity based on the
Public Transport Accessibly Level. This measure scores different
areas of London from 6b High - 1a Low in line with relative access
to overground rail, underground rail and bus services.
Research from our Tenant Survey confirms that public transport
accessibility is a critical issue for tenants when selecting
locations for rental. The Earl’s Court area is very well connected
with the Western side of its boundaries being given the highest
connectivity level.
Not only is Earl’s Court already very well connected, but with
further enhancements and improvements to public transport
planned for the area in line with the existing Earl’s Court
masterplan the connectivity and ease of use of public transport
will be further improved.
Travel times from Earl’s Court Station
Victoria Station in 9 minutes
Oxford Circus in 12 minutes
Heathrow in 35 minutes
Canary Wharf in 36 minutes
Beyond the planned public transport improvements will be
additions of new access roads, and through roads, better
pedestrian access and investment in cycle hire and storage
as well as cycle lanes.
Schools
EDUCATION
The strong reputation of London’s
schools and universities is undeniable,
and Earl’s Court is surrounded by a
large number of excellent schools.
The adjacent map highlights schools
in and around the area.
Knight Frank research shows the
average value of a home within a
mile of one of the top performing
schools in England is 30% higher
than average values in the
surrounding local authority.
3 4
A Conservatoire for Dance and Drama
B Heythrop College
C Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine
D Kingston University
E Royal College of Music
Universities
THE EARL'S COURT
MASTERPLAN
77acres (including
Lillie Square)
1Msq ft of office space
1new health centre
36Mof investment in a brand new
primary school, community,
leisure and health facilities
£8Mcontribution on training
and skills initiatives
10,000new jobs
£1Mof investment in cycle hire
hub cycle storage and lanes
310Ksq ft of hotel
and leisure space
£5.5Mof investment in bus service
enhancements and bus stops
290Ksq ft retail space
£38.2Mof improvements to
local tube stations
340residential homes from Empress
State Building conversion
7.5acres of green space -
a district garden square
77acres (including
Lillie Square)
7,500new homes (including
1,500 affordable homes)
8.8Msq ft residential
NEW
340residential homes from Empress
State Building conversion
Continued investment
The large scale investment promised for
Earl’s Court has the potential to improve
the local residential market performance.
This investment into Earl’s Court is
supported by several new developments
in the area contributing to infrastructure
and transportation enhancements and
additions of new shops, restaurants
schools and recreational facilities.
5
FOCUS ON: EARL’S COURT 2016 RESEARCH
Source: Capital  Counties
When looking at the impact of a large
mixed use regeneration project we
can see several impacts or changes it
has on the local area. Below we look
at some of those and see how it can
serve as an example for what changes
the Earl’s Court Regeneration could
have on the Earl’s Court area.
“Kings Cross is a good example of
what large scale regeneration can
do for a London location. The uplift
in residential values seen across the
Kings Cross area has been significant,
120% since 2010, coinciding with
the main phases of development.
The value uplift has been very strong
even when compared to the rise in the
wider London market. The change in
stock type and quality of stock being
delivered in Kings Cross has played a
Public realm improvements, new tenants
and a strategy by landlord, Grosvenor,
working with local businesses on
promoting Mount Street as a luxury
destination has transformed Mount Street
in Mayfair from a relatively secondary
thoroughfare into one of London’s,
and the world’s, leading luxury brand
destinations. In 2010 the Grosvenor
Estate undertook the restoration of the
street and began the creation of higher
quality retail space and streetscape
that can be seen today. This process
contributed to drawing in the leading
luxury brands that now see Mount
Street as the ideal address in Mayfair
to showcase their brands.
Along with the retail came world class
restaurant Scott’s, offering fine dining
and the delightful Mount Street Deli
which both compliment the existing
tenant mix from Allen’s Butchers to
Purdey and Sons which has been on
Mount Street since 1882.
This restoration and place making
exercise undertaken by the Grosvenor
estate not only changed the retail and
CASE STUDIES: What continued
investment and thoughtful
management can achieve
Mixed use regeneration
Retail led regeneration
big part in this uplift due to the increase
in quality stock being offered as well as
the type of properties being sold and
the environment it is being created in.
Furthermore the regeneration has
served to create a new destination in
London, the placemaking undertaken
at Kings Cross has created a place for
people to live, work and spend leisure
time, with new office space, shopping
districts and entertainment and dining
experiences, Kings Cross has become
a distinct London destination.
The proposed development at Earl’s
Court seeks to provide all these
elements, space for people to live, to
work and to spend their leisure time in
parks, restaurants, shops, cafes etc.
and Kings Cross serves as a great
example of how well this can be done.”
restaurant element of Mount Street but
had an impact on the residential prices
on the street.
Since 2010 Mount Streets prices
have outperformed the wider Mayfair
average, asking prices have risen 81%
compared to wider Mayfair area only
19% over the same period.
As part of the Earl’s Court Regeneration,
a large emphasis has been placed on
public realm improvements and the
addition of a new high street as the
retail and social heart of the district.
Proposed New High Street, Earl’s Court
REGENERATION
Important Notice
© Knight Frank LLP 2016 – This report is
published for general information only and
not to be relied upon in any way. Although
high standards have been used in the
preparation of the information, analysis, views
and projections presented in this report, no
responsibility or liability whatsoever can be
accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or
damage resultant from any use of, reliance on
or reference to the contents of this document.
As a general report, this material does not
necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank
LLP in relation to particular properties or
projects. Reproduction of this report in whole
or in part is not allowed without prior written
approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form
and content within which it appears. Knight
Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership
registered in England with registered number
OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker
Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may
look at a list of members’ names.
For the latest news, views and analysis
on the world of prime property, visit
KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing
GLOBAL BRIEFING
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
Rian Strauss
Senior Analyst Residential Research
+44 207 861 1674
rian.strauss@knightfrank.com
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Alex Carr
Partner New Homes
+44 207 861 5444
alex.carr@knightfrank.com
Christopher Jones
Associate New Homes
+44 207 861 1048
christopher.jones@knightfrank.com
Tenant Survey -
2015/2016
London Hotspots -
2015
The Wealth Report -
2016
The London Review -
Spring 2016
2016
10th
Edition
THE
WEALTH
REPORTThe global perspective on prime property and investment
LONDON PROPERTY OUTPERFORMS
OTHER ASSET CLASSES
THE RISE OF THE
SUPER-PRIME LETTINGS MARKET
THE OPTIMAL LONDON
PORTFOLIO MIX
LONDON
RESIDENTIAL
REVIEWPOLITICAL EVENTS DAMPEN
DEMAND IN THE PRIME LONDON
PROPERTY MARKET
SPRING 2016
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
LONDON
HOTSPOTSRESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OPPORTUNITY AREAS 2015
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
HOUSING DELIVERY
ACROSS LONDON
IMPROVING TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURE
MARKET FORECASTS
Source: Knight Frank Research
Pre-1900
1900-1939
1945-1972
1973-present
FIGURE 5 EARLS COURT FACT SHEET
15%
67%
11%
15%
6%
0.3%: Price growth in the year to February 2016
-2.9%: Rental value growth in the year to February 2016
PROPERTY TYPE
(All Sales:
Jan 2014-Dec 2015)
Flat Terraced
Semi detached Detached
88%
0.2%
11%
0.5%
Population: 9,921
AGE OF HOUSING STOCK
0.5%
Averageprice
£200,000
£400,000
£600,000
£800,000
£1,000,000
£1,200,000
£1,400,000
£1,600,000
£1,800,000
£2,000,000
£2,000,000
SW10 SW3 SW5 SW6 SW7 W14 W6 W8
Year to March 2015
Year to April 2016
452Key: Number of sales 1,566
FUTURE OF THE MARKET INVESTOR INTENTIONSSECTOR UPDATE
PRIVATE RENTED
SECTOR RESEARCH
TENANT SURVEY
2015/16
Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS
Front cover image: West Brompton CGI by Capital and Counties
Knight Frank Research provides strategic
advice, consultancy services and forecasting
to a wide range of clients worldwide including
developers, investors, funding organisations,
corporate institutions and the public sector.
All our clients recognise the need for expert
independent advice customised to their
specific needs.
FIGURE 4
Average price and sales volumes in Earl’s Court and surrounding area
Source: Knight Frank Research
Figure 4 below illustrates how volumes
and values in the surrounding area have
changed in the past four years. Volumes
decreased in all but one postcode sector,
SW6. Average prices however grew in 5 of
the 8 selected postcode sectors, with W8
seeing the largest increase in prices and
SW5 the largest drop in average prices.
In Figure 5 we break down the types of
properties that were sold in the period Jan
2014 – Dec 2015. The Earl’s Court area is
dominated by flats and terraced properties,
making up 99% of transaction for that
period. It is also interesting to note the
dominance of Victorian housing stock in the
area – 67% of the properties pre-date 1900.
LOCAL MARKET OVERVIEW

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EarlsCourt_FINAL_WEB_Amend3

  • 1. PLACEMAKING REGENERATION RESIDENTIAL VALUES RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH FOCUS ON: EARL’S COURT2016
  • 2. Earl’s Court is in the early stages of large scale regeneration. Investments in place-making will change the residential market in Earl’s Court over the coming years. 2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report FIGURE 1 House price growth Index Indexed 100=Jan 2009 Source: Knight Frank Research 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EARLS COURT 1 MILE RADIUS PCL INDEX GREATER LONDON “The Earl’s Court master- plan is likely to see a migration of values from Kensington Chelsea further into Earl’s Court” RIAN STRAUSS Senior Analyst Residential Research FIGURE 2 Average residential values in and around Earl’s Court Source: Knight Frank Research Land Registry Residential prices across London have grown strongly in recent years, but many areas which have seen large-scale regeneration and redevelopment have seen out-performance pointing to the potential for future growth. The inclusion of parts of Earl’s Court and Fulham in the Knight Frank Prime Central London (PCL) definition reflects that the area is increasingly seen as a prime London neighbourhood. The map below highlights the differential between pricing in Kensington Chelsea compared to Hammersmith Fulham. The regeneration of Earl’s Court is likely to lead to higher values moving from east to west as the development attracts buyers who would traditionally have focused on Kensington and Chelsea. From Q2 2013 Earl’s Court has seen stronger house price growth than prime central London as a whole and has seen a 96% increase in house prices over the 7 years as seen in figure 1. OVERVIEW Earl’s Court Regeneration Scheme
  • 3. FOCUS ON: EARL’S COURT 2016 RESEARCH FIGURE 3 Connectivity Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL) and key education hotspots Public Transport Accessibility Levels High Connectivity Low Connectivity 21 12 16 19 6 24 8 7 23 11 3 2 10 22 18 20 9 1 4 A B C D E 14 5 13 15 17 1 Ashbourne Independent School 2 Chelsea Academy 3 Chelsea Independent College 4 Collingham 5 Duff Miller College 6 Ealing, Hammersmith and West London College 7 Fulham College Boys' School 8 Fulham Cross Girls' School and Language College 9 Holland Park School 10 Kensington and Chelsea College 11 Lady Margaret School 12 Latymer Upper School 13 Lycee Francais Charles de Gaulle 14 Mander Portman Woodward School 15 Queen's Gate School 16 Sacred Heart High School 17 Saint Thomas More Language College 18 St James Senior Girls' School 19 St Paul's Girls' School 20 The Cardinal Vaughan Memorial RC School 21 The Godolphin and Latymer School 22 The London Oratory School 23 The Moat School 24 William Morris Sixth Form EARL’S COURT CONNECTIVITY The adjacent map shows the level of connectivity based on the Public Transport Accessibly Level. This measure scores different areas of London from 6b High - 1a Low in line with relative access to overground rail, underground rail and bus services. Research from our Tenant Survey confirms that public transport accessibility is a critical issue for tenants when selecting locations for rental. The Earl’s Court area is very well connected with the Western side of its boundaries being given the highest connectivity level. Not only is Earl’s Court already very well connected, but with further enhancements and improvements to public transport planned for the area in line with the existing Earl’s Court masterplan the connectivity and ease of use of public transport will be further improved. Travel times from Earl’s Court Station Victoria Station in 9 minutes Oxford Circus in 12 minutes Heathrow in 35 minutes Canary Wharf in 36 minutes Beyond the planned public transport improvements will be additions of new access roads, and through roads, better pedestrian access and investment in cycle hire and storage as well as cycle lanes. Schools EDUCATION The strong reputation of London’s schools and universities is undeniable, and Earl’s Court is surrounded by a large number of excellent schools. The adjacent map highlights schools in and around the area. Knight Frank research shows the average value of a home within a mile of one of the top performing schools in England is 30% higher than average values in the surrounding local authority. 3 4 A Conservatoire for Dance and Drama B Heythrop College C Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine D Kingston University E Royal College of Music Universities
  • 4. THE EARL'S COURT MASTERPLAN 77acres (including Lillie Square) 1Msq ft of office space 1new health centre 36Mof investment in a brand new primary school, community, leisure and health facilities £8Mcontribution on training and skills initiatives 10,000new jobs £1Mof investment in cycle hire hub cycle storage and lanes 310Ksq ft of hotel and leisure space £5.5Mof investment in bus service enhancements and bus stops 290Ksq ft retail space £38.2Mof improvements to local tube stations 340residential homes from Empress State Building conversion 7.5acres of green space - a district garden square 77acres (including Lillie Square) 7,500new homes (including 1,500 affordable homes) 8.8Msq ft residential NEW 340residential homes from Empress State Building conversion Continued investment The large scale investment promised for Earl’s Court has the potential to improve the local residential market performance. This investment into Earl’s Court is supported by several new developments in the area contributing to infrastructure and transportation enhancements and additions of new shops, restaurants schools and recreational facilities. 5 FOCUS ON: EARL’S COURT 2016 RESEARCH Source: Capital Counties When looking at the impact of a large mixed use regeneration project we can see several impacts or changes it has on the local area. Below we look at some of those and see how it can serve as an example for what changes the Earl’s Court Regeneration could have on the Earl’s Court area. “Kings Cross is a good example of what large scale regeneration can do for a London location. The uplift in residential values seen across the Kings Cross area has been significant, 120% since 2010, coinciding with the main phases of development. The value uplift has been very strong even when compared to the rise in the wider London market. The change in stock type and quality of stock being delivered in Kings Cross has played a Public realm improvements, new tenants and a strategy by landlord, Grosvenor, working with local businesses on promoting Mount Street as a luxury destination has transformed Mount Street in Mayfair from a relatively secondary thoroughfare into one of London’s, and the world’s, leading luxury brand destinations. In 2010 the Grosvenor Estate undertook the restoration of the street and began the creation of higher quality retail space and streetscape that can be seen today. This process contributed to drawing in the leading luxury brands that now see Mount Street as the ideal address in Mayfair to showcase their brands. Along with the retail came world class restaurant Scott’s, offering fine dining and the delightful Mount Street Deli which both compliment the existing tenant mix from Allen’s Butchers to Purdey and Sons which has been on Mount Street since 1882. This restoration and place making exercise undertaken by the Grosvenor estate not only changed the retail and CASE STUDIES: What continued investment and thoughtful management can achieve Mixed use regeneration Retail led regeneration big part in this uplift due to the increase in quality stock being offered as well as the type of properties being sold and the environment it is being created in. Furthermore the regeneration has served to create a new destination in London, the placemaking undertaken at Kings Cross has created a place for people to live, work and spend leisure time, with new office space, shopping districts and entertainment and dining experiences, Kings Cross has become a distinct London destination. The proposed development at Earl’s Court seeks to provide all these elements, space for people to live, to work and to spend their leisure time in parks, restaurants, shops, cafes etc. and Kings Cross serves as a great example of how well this can be done.” restaurant element of Mount Street but had an impact on the residential prices on the street. Since 2010 Mount Streets prices have outperformed the wider Mayfair average, asking prices have risen 81% compared to wider Mayfair area only 19% over the same period. As part of the Earl’s Court Regeneration, a large emphasis has been placed on public realm improvements and the addition of a new high street as the retail and social heart of the district. Proposed New High Street, Earl’s Court REGENERATION
  • 5. Important Notice © Knight Frank LLP 2016 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names. For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing GLOBAL BRIEFING RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Rian Strauss Senior Analyst Residential Research +44 207 861 1674 rian.strauss@knightfrank.com RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Alex Carr Partner New Homes +44 207 861 5444 alex.carr@knightfrank.com Christopher Jones Associate New Homes +44 207 861 1048 christopher.jones@knightfrank.com Tenant Survey - 2015/2016 London Hotspots - 2015 The Wealth Report - 2016 The London Review - Spring 2016 2016 10th Edition THE WEALTH REPORTThe global perspective on prime property and investment LONDON PROPERTY OUTPERFORMS OTHER ASSET CLASSES THE RISE OF THE SUPER-PRIME LETTINGS MARKET THE OPTIMAL LONDON PORTFOLIO MIX LONDON RESIDENTIAL REVIEWPOLITICAL EVENTS DAMPEN DEMAND IN THE PRIME LONDON PROPERTY MARKET SPRING 2016 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH LONDON HOTSPOTSRESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY AREAS 2015 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH HOUSING DELIVERY ACROSS LONDON IMPROVING TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECASTS Source: Knight Frank Research Pre-1900 1900-1939 1945-1972 1973-present FIGURE 5 EARLS COURT FACT SHEET 15% 67% 11% 15% 6% 0.3%: Price growth in the year to February 2016 -2.9%: Rental value growth in the year to February 2016 PROPERTY TYPE (All Sales: Jan 2014-Dec 2015) Flat Terraced Semi detached Detached 88% 0.2% 11% 0.5% Population: 9,921 AGE OF HOUSING STOCK 0.5% Averageprice £200,000 £400,000 £600,000 £800,000 £1,000,000 £1,200,000 £1,400,000 £1,600,000 £1,800,000 £2,000,000 £2,000,000 SW10 SW3 SW5 SW6 SW7 W14 W6 W8 Year to March 2015 Year to April 2016 452Key: Number of sales 1,566 FUTURE OF THE MARKET INVESTOR INTENTIONSSECTOR UPDATE PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR RESEARCH TENANT SURVEY 2015/16 Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS Front cover image: West Brompton CGI by Capital and Counties Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. FIGURE 4 Average price and sales volumes in Earl’s Court and surrounding area Source: Knight Frank Research Figure 4 below illustrates how volumes and values in the surrounding area have changed in the past four years. Volumes decreased in all but one postcode sector, SW6. Average prices however grew in 5 of the 8 selected postcode sectors, with W8 seeing the largest increase in prices and SW5 the largest drop in average prices. In Figure 5 we break down the types of properties that were sold in the period Jan 2014 – Dec 2015. The Earl’s Court area is dominated by flats and terraced properties, making up 99% of transaction for that period. It is also interesting to note the dominance of Victorian housing stock in the area – 67% of the properties pre-date 1900. LOCAL MARKET OVERVIEW