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This research study seeks to determine the defining characteristics
of the electric utility of 2025, ­identifying ­successful business models,
regulatory trends, and ­transformative technologies.
Massachusetts
Institute of
Technology IIT-Comillas
The MIT
Utility of the Future
Study
Prospectus for an Interdisciplinary MIT Energy Initiative Consortium
The Team
Principal Investigators
Professor Ignacio Perez Arriaga
Professor Perez Arriaga is Permanent Visiting Professor at the Center
for Energy and Envi­ronmental Policy Research at MIT and Member
of the EU Board of Appeal — Agency for the Coordination of Energy
Regulators. He is Director of Training at the Florence School of
Regulation, at the European University Institute. He is review editor of
the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Perez Arriaga is Member of the Advisory Group of the Energy
Roadmap 2050 for the Energy Directorate of the European Commission.
He is a Life Member of the Spanish Royal Academy of Engineering,
Director of the BP Chair on Sustainable Development at Comillas.
He was an independent member of the Single Electricity Market
Committee of Ireland, and Commissioner at the Spanish Electricity
Regulatory Commission.
Professor Christopher R. Knittel
Christopher Knittel is the William Barton Rogers Professor of Energy
Economics in the Sloan School of Management and the Director
of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He joined the faculty at MIT
in 2011. Professor Knittel received his BA in economics and political
science from the California State University, Stanislaus in 1994, an
MA in economics from UC Davis in 1996, and a PhD in economics from
UC Berkeley in 1999. His research focuses on environmental economics,
industrial organization, and applied econometrics. He is a Research
Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the
Productivity, Industrial Organization, and Energy and Environmental
Economics groups.
Professor Richard Lester
Professor Richard Lester is Japan Steel Industry Professor and Head
of the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he is also the faculty
co-chair and founding Director of the MIT Industrial Performance
Center. His research focuses on innovation management and policy,
with an emphasis on the energy and manufacturing sectors. As director
of the Industrial Performance Center, Dr. Lester has led several major
studies of national and regional competitiveness and innovation perfor-
mance commissioned by governments and industrial groups around the
world. In the Local Innovation Systems Project, he directed a study
about the tech­nological trans­formation of industries in regional econo-
mies and the role of universities in that process. He currently serves as
faculty advisor to the MIT President’s Council on Regional Engagement.
Faculty Committee
Prof. John Deutch (MIT)
Prof. Tomas Gomez (Comillas)
Prof. Steven Leeb (MIT)
Prof. Les Norford (MIT)
Prof. Nancy Rose (MIT)
Prof. Richard Schmalensee (MIT)
Directors
Dr. Richard D. Tabors (MIT)
Dr. Raanan A. Miller (MIT)
Research Team
Ashwini Bharatkumar (MIT)
Scott Burger (MIT)
José Pablo Chaves (Comillas)
Jesse D. Jenkins (MIT)
Dr. Raanan A. Miller (MIT)
Dr. Richard D. Tabors (MIT)
Additional Students (TBD)
Advisors
Prof. Carlos Batlle (Comillas)
Prof. Pablo Frías (Comillas)
Prof. Javier Reneses (Comillas)
Prof. Michel Rivier (Comillas)
Prof. Álvaro Sánchez (Comillas)
	 THE MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study PROSPECTUS
Copyright © 2014 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved.
The Team
For additional information
or to join the consortium
please contact:
Louis J. Carranza
Associate Director, MITEI
Email: carranza@mit.edu
Telephone: +1.617.324.7029
Christie Ko
Assistant Director for Member
  Relations, MITEI
Email: cko@mit.edu
Telephone: +1.617.253.3478
1
Executive SummaryOverview
Overview
The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) has a long history of identifying research topics that lend themselves
to a consortium approach. Such topics benefit from aggregating a diverse set of perspectives on a set of
critical issues facing the industry at large. This “commons” approach benefits all of the partners, while
enabling each member to individually benefit from an increased understanding of the unique implications
to their organization.
The Utility of the Future brings together a diverse consortium of leading international companies to address
emerging issues in the electric power sector, and provides a neutral framework within which to evaluate
the economic, regulatory, and technological impacts of the ongoing evolution of the power sector world-
wide. The study team from MIT and IIT-Comillas combines a breadth of skills in quantitative economic
and engineering modeling, with a sophisticated understanding of the complex interactions in the electric
power industry. The team includes faculty with decades of experience in advising governments, corporations,
and institutions on regulation and market design. The consortium partners — industrial and other market
participants — bring valuable real-world expertise and experience to the study.
The electric power sector is poised for transformative change. Improvements in the cost and performance
of a range of distributed energy generation (DG) technologies and the potential for breakthroughs in
distributed energy storage (DS) are creating new options for on-site power generation and storage,
driving increasing adoption and impacting utility distribution system operations. In addition, changing
uses and use patterns for electricity — from plug-in electric vehicles (EV) to demand response (DR) —
are altering demands on the electric power system. Finally, the infusion of new information and
communications technology (ICT) into the electric system and its markets is enabling the collection
of immense volumes of data on power sector operations and use; unprecedented control of generation,
networks, and loads; and new opportunities for the delivery of energy services.
The combination of ICTs and various distributed energy resources (DER) — including DG, DS, EVs, and
DR — will allow the creation and proliferation of new distributed energy systems (DES), from microgrids
and virtual power plants to remotely aggregated controllable loads and smart charging systems for EV fleets.
DESs are systems combining one or more DERs, including DG, DS, and/or demand response, with ICTs.
These DESs will spawn a range of new business models capable of providing value to end-use energy
consumers and upstream electricity market actors alike. The nature and penetration of these business models
will be heavily influenced by policy and regulation, and the combination of novel DESs, regulation, and
business models will shape the utilities of the future.
2	 MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Approach, Key Questions, and Outcomes
Approach, Key Questions, and Outcomes
The Utility of the Future, an interdisciplinary MITEI consortium, will seek to answer the question:
what will be the defining characteristics of the electric utility of 2025?
This fundamental question encompasses many sub-questions and areas of research. In particular,
The Utility of the Future will develop and analyze scenarios of DES technologies, business models, and
regulatory environments to understand how the electricity system will change over the coming decade.
This analysis will include identifying potential business models that may emerge and identifying the
factors — policy, regulatory, economic, financial, or technical — that will drive a model’s success or failure.
The potential for these business models to disrupt or complement the activities of incumbent utilities will
be assessed. Opportunities for incumbent utilities and new market actors — including those from sectors
ranging from natural gas and transportation to ITC and buildings — to capitalize on these changes will be
highlighted. Furthermore, scenarios will consider the development of DESs under a range of public policy
and regulatory frameworks. The study will analyze the ability of current policy and regulation to
provide a neutral playing field for all existing and emerging technologies and business models and,
where necessary, will propose new regulatory schemes and policy paradigms. The Utility of the Future
team will utilize existing analytical tools and relevant literature and develop new models where needed to
address the questions posed above.
In a style that is the hallmark of MITEI’s Future of… series, The Utility of the Future will be a benchmark
academic study of the evolving electric power sector. The study will identify and assess candidate technolo-
gies and business models and evaluate their impact from a systems perspective. Plausible visions of the
electric utility sector of the future will be developed. Finally, the study will provide findings and actionable
recommendations for various mar­ket actors and stakeholders in an industry undergoing dramatic change,
including incumbent utilities, regulators, policy makers, the private sector, and electricity consumers.
Research Questions
The following questions will be central to defining the characteristics of the utility industry of 2025:
•	 What new business models will succeed in the electric power industry of the future?
•	 What factors — be they technological, economic regulatory, or otherwise — will determine the
magnitude of the impact or the penetration rates of the identified business models and technologies?
•	 How will the identified business models complement or compete with the services provided
by the incumbent utilities and other incumbent market actors?
•	 How must regulatory frameworks evolve to allow for an economically and environmentally
sustainable electric power industry to develop?
•	 How can other sectors (i.e., gas, ICT, ­buildings, transportation, etc.) influence, be affected by,
or participate in the trans­formation that is underway in the electric power industry?
•	 What is the range of plausible scenarios for the evolution of the electric power system in the
United States, Europe, and elsewhere?
3
Executive Summary
Expected Outcomes
The Utility of the Future will:
•	 Identify and assess the characteristics and magnitude of the impact of candidate DES technologies
and business models on the system, new and incumbent market actors, and policy and regulatory
decision makers.
•	 Identify the impact of current regulation on the development of the electric power system and
suggest improvements to existing regulation as well as novel regulatory frameworks.
•	 Develop and present multiple plausible scenarios for the electric power system of the future.
•	 Provide findings and actionable recom­mendations for incumbent utilities, new market entrants,
regulators, policy makers, the private sector, and consumers.
Conceptual Framework – System of Systems
A hallmark of The Utility of the Future study is an integrated systems view of the electric power sector.
Analysis of the technologies driving change in the power sector, emergent business models, and key
regulatory questions will culminate into holistic assessment of systems-level scenarios. These scenarios will
capture the complex interactions between the multiple components of the power system to enhance our
understanding of the plausible shape of the next decade’s electric utility sector.
In order to evaluate the roles of and interactions between the diverse sets of stakeholders in the power
system, we take a system of systems approach as illustrated in Figure 1 on page 4. DESs comprised of
DERs and ICTs are integrated with business models to deliver value to stakeholders. These transactions of
value between system agents take place within a regulatory framework. The regulatory framework, in turn,
is a component of the broader socio-technical system called “the electric power system,” which is charac-
terized by a range of possible technological, economic, geographic, and political contexts. From bottom-up
assessments of each subsystem of the power sector, we will build a set of scenarios of future power systems
and a set of possible visions of the utility of the future.
Conceptual Framework – System of Systems
4	 MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Figure 1 A System of Systems Perspective
some type
Service
Provider
Stakeholder
Needs
Stakeholder
Needs
Business
Attributes
Value
Delivery
Revenue
Business Model
Regulatory Framework
Socio-Technical System:“the electric power system”(e.g., technological, economic, geographic,
and political context)
DES
Other
ICT DER
Structure and Methodology
Structure and ­Methodology
The Utility of the Future research initiative can be split into four distinct layers as shown in Figure 2 on page 6:
(1) candidates and tools; (2) evaluation; (3) implications; and (4) outcomes. While each layer has a unique
thrust and focus, they are all interrelated. The final outcome of one layer is critical to the development and
completion of the next. The four layers of the study each touch upon various parts of the research questions
posed in the “Approach, Key Questions, and Outcomes” section of this prospectus. The primary thrust of
each layer is described below.
Layer 1: Candidates and Tools
1.	Identify and classify new value propositions stemming from DES business models and their
component technologies.
• Screen energy industry news sources to understand and summarize state of play and potential
future developments.
• Scan MIT and IIT research activities and knowledge base for evidence of cutting-edge
developments.
• Consider “game changing” technologies, including “leapfrogging” in emerging economies.
5
Executive Summary
2.	Develop and adapt analytical models for simulation, optimization, and techno-economic-
regulatory evaluation of DES business models and systems interaction effects.
• Candidate models include Reference Network Models, Optimization Models (DER-CAM),
Optimal Power Flow models, and others.
3.	Characterize key features of existing ­regulatory frameworks and develop novel regulatory
proposals that will allow for the development of an environmentally and economically sustainable
electric power system.
Layer 2: Evaluation
4.	Perform technical, economic, and regulatory assessment of candidate business models and system
interaction effects using the inputs from Layer 1.
• Employ analytical tools identified and developed in Layer 1 to evaluate candidate value
propositions.
• Develop “test systems” representative of a broad range of system/regulatory/market conditions
in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere.
• Use the output of the models to identify and inform new regulations and business models
to analyze.
Layer 3: Implications
5.	Analyze the direct challenges to the status quo for system operators, regulators, markets, industry
structure, and new market actors.
6.	Analyze how the power sector will be influenced by other key interacting sectors, including natural
gas, transportation, ITCs, buildings, etc.
7.	Propose alternative strategies for incumbent utilities and other major players in the evolving market.
• Analyze strengths, weaknesses, oppor­tunities and threats for key market actors.
Layer 4: Outcomes
8.	Synthesize and report the findings for incumbent utilities and other major market players, new
DES-related business models, and regulators and policy makers.
9.	Develop and present detailed scenarios that capture the range of likely outcomes of the utility
sector of the future.
Structure and Methodology
6	 MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Figure 2  The Utility of the Future Study Structure
Identify Existing 
Develop Improved
Regulatory
Frameworks
1: Candidates  Tools
2: Evaluation
3: Implications
4: Outcomes
Develop 
Adapt Analytical
Models
Identify  Classify
New Candidate
Value Propositions
Game-
Changing
Technologies
Screen
Available
News 
Research
MIT
Brainstorm 
Expert Scan
Techno-Economic-
Regulatory Assessment
Power Sector
as Influenced by
Other Sectors:
Gas; Transport; ICT;
Buildings; Others
Implications for
the Status Quo:
Markets,
System Operators,
Industry Structure,
Regulations
Strategies
Available to
Incumbent
Utilities
Scenarios
for Utility Sector
of the Future
Findings for
Regulators 
Policy Makers
Findings for
New Business
Models
Findings for
Incumbent
Utilities
Inputs Core Activities
Structure and Methodology
Executive Summary
	 	 7
Initial Framing – Technology Assessment
Initial Framing
In preparation for this consortium study, the MIT team has performed an initial assessment of technologies,
business models, and regulatory issues that will underpin the analysis to be undertaken by this two-year
research effort. The outcome of this initial assessment is summarized below.
Technology Assessment
Improvements in the performance and cost characteristics of DERs — including DG, DS, and DR —
underpin the potential for the growth of DESs. Innovation in information and communication tech­
nologies — such as advanced sensing and control devices and communication protocols — are also
critical to transforming the electricity distribution sector into a more adaptive, responsive system.
What is a Distributed Energy System?
A DES system combines one or more DERs, including DG, DS, and/or DR, with ICTs to enable a business
model that provides valued services to energy end users or upstream electricity market actors. Such systems
will be distributed throughout the electricity distribution network and adjacent customer properties in
a number of different topologies (see Figure 3). Some DESs will be owned or operated by traditional
regulated distribution utilities while others will be owned, managed, and operated by end-use electricity
consumers and/or by third parties operating in competitive market environments. DESs may enable the
provision of a variety of different services, from end-use energy services such as lighting, heating, and
cooling to upstream electricity market services such as capacity or ancillary services. DESs can be further
described with the three-layer framework illustrated in Figure 4 on page 8.
Figure 3 Illustrative DES Topologies
8	 MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Figure 4 Technology Building Blocks of DESs
some type Stakeholder
Needs
Monitoring and
Data Mgmt. Tools
Revenue
Analysis Tools Decision Making
Tools
Control Tools
Data Collection
Tools (AMR, AMI)
Controllability
Tools
Distr. Energy Resources (DER)Loads
Internet  Telecommunications Networks
Power Distribution Networks  Components
Input Defined by Business Model
 Systems Environment (Regulation, Market, etc.)
Layer 1:
Physical
Layer 2:
Communications
Layer 3:
Intelligence
Parts of DESs
Parts of Traditional Power and Telecom Systems
f(x)
Initial Framing – Technology Assessment
Distributed Energy Resources: a “Disruptive Threat”?
The first step toward evaluating potential futures that may emerge for electric utilities is identifying and
understanding the tech­nologies likely to play a significant role in the evolution of the electric power sector.
This includes both technologies likely to drive the shift toward a more distributed paradigm and technolo-
gies likely to emerge in response to new needs created by regulatory or business model evolution in the
power sector, such as the need for increased system flexibility in response to the increasing penetration
of intermittent renewables.
Figure 5 depicts an initial qualitative assessment of the potential for key DER technologies to prove disrup-
tive to power system operations, business models, and regulation. Within each technology category, the
prospective impact of DERs is indicated with a solid or dashed line in the short, medium, and long terms.
Solid lines indicate high impact and thus greater potential for disruptiveness and dashed lines indicate
lower impact and thus limited disruptiveness. Question marks indicate insufficient data to determine the
likely impact at this time.
Executive Summary
	 	 9
Initial Framing – Technology Assessment
Figure 5  Projected Potential for Disruptiveness of Key DES Component Technologies
Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years)
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
PV / CHP
Reciprocating Engine
Wind
Fuel Cells /
Microturbines
CSP
Thermoelectric
Materials  Nuclear
DistributedGeneration
Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years)
Fossil Fuel Boiler /
Air Heat Pump
Geothermal Heat Pump /
Solar Hot Water
Solar Thermal
DistributedGeneration
(Thermal)
DistributedStorage
Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years)
Slow Charge
Fast Charge
Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years)
Manual Demand
Response
AMI / Smart Local
Appliances / LAN
Local Energy
Management
Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years)
Non-Controllable 1-Way /
Plug-in
Controllable 1-Way 
2-Ways / Static Inducting
Mobile Inducting
DemandResponse
Electric
Vehicle
Batteries
Electric
Vehicle
Charging
NaS / Li-ion
Molton Salt Thermal /
Ice Thermal / Flywheels
Pb Acid / NmH
Flow
Metal Air /
SuperCapacitors
Superconducting
Magnetic Energy (SMES)
Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years)
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
10	  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Figure 6 System Dynamics of DER Adoption
some type
Stakeholder
Needs
Wholesale
Generation
Volume
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
?
+
+
+
++
+
? –
–
+
+
+
+
R
R
+
RR
–
R
B
Wholesale
Electricity
Prices
Loop
Collection of
Transmission
Volumetric
Toll
Wholesale
Generation
Revenues
Marginal
Generation
Cost Loop
Marginal
Generator’s
Production
Cost
Wholesale
Generator’s
Financial
Outlook
Transmission
Utility
Revenues
Wholesale
Generator’s
Cost of
Capital
Distribution
Utility
Revenues
Wholesale
Electricity
Prices
Distribution
Utility Costs
Effect on Tariff
Loop
Distribution Grid
Costs
Cost of Retail
Electricity
Regulatory
Adequacy for
DES-DER
Financial
Incentives from
Government,
Utility or
Aggregator
Valuation of
Unfulfilled
Needs Met by
DERs  EE
DER  EE
Consumer
Adoption
Maturation
and RD in
DER  EE
Technology
Improvement
Loop
DER  EE
Performance
DER  EE
Valuation
Scale
Economies Technology
Cost Loop
DER  EE
Production and
Installation
Costs
+
Distribution
Utility Revenues
Effect on Tariffs
Loop
Change in Grid
Usage Profile
Power Purchased
from the Grid
Transmission
Utility Revenues
Effect on Tariffs
Loop
Collection of
Distribution
Volumetric
Toll
Initial Framing – Technology Assessment
Faced with the wide range of emerging DERs cataloged here, many electric utilities and industry observers
have worried that these new technology trends will prove massively disruptive to the age-old utility
business model. Analogies have been drawn to the deregulation of the airline industries or the overthrow
of the landline telephone business by wireless cellular technology. Some observers predict a“death spiral”
that could see DER adoption become a self-reinforcing cycle that decimates the incumbent utility’s core
business. In this cycle, improvement in the price and performance of DERs (and end-use energy efficiency)
spurs customer adoption, which reduces utility revenues. Reduced revenues then require a rate increase to
cover the utility’s fixed costs. Higher rates in turn drive even more adoption of DERs and efficiency.
The growing use of DERs clearly represents a paradigm shift in the operation of the electric power sector.
Business models and regulation of incumbent utilities will both need to evolve to keep pace with the
changing nature of network uses and end-use customer needs. At the same time, the system dynamics
or feedback loops associated with adoption of a DER are much more nuanced and complicated than the
simple “death spiral” described above (see Figure 6). Our research indicates that, while a self-reinforcing
feedback loop for DER adoption is possible, it is not pre-ordained. Careful examination and analysis of
the poten­tial system dynamics at play as DER adoption increases will be essential to determine the
ultimate impact on incumbent distribution utilities and others across the value chain.
Executive Summary
	 	 11
Business Models
The business models of electric utilities have co-evolved over more than a century alongside a changing
regulatory environment. Over the last two decades, an era of industry and regulatory restructuring saw
electric utilities evolve from protected franchise electricity suppliers to a diverse blend of regulated integrated
utilities, monopoly network companies, and competitive generators, retailers, and other service providers.
Today, the growth of DESs is further accelerating business model innovation in the power sector, as
incumbents evolve and new entrants emerge to respond to and take advantage of the new characteristics
and services offered by these systems.
In order to understand the potential business models that might arise in the evolving electricity sector, we
present a framework that helps explore and understand the logic of business models and identify the most
suitable business opportunities in the context of DESs. Based on the economic activities that exist in
electric power systems, we have defined five core“attributes”of DES-related business models. At the
highest level, the attributes of the business model can be characterized by the primary activities of the
business. Specifically, the business may:
•	 Own assets;
•	 Operate assets and/or systems of assets;
•	 Fund the acquisition or the operation of assets;
•	 Provide information and related services to asset owners or operators; or
•	 Build or manufacture assets.
The matrix shown in Figure 7 illustrates the multiple DER-related business opportunities (horizontal
axis) that would be best suited to a given business model attribute, as well as the core business attributes
(vertical axis) that are most commonly linked together in specific business models (the half matrix on the
right-hand side). Within the matrix, a green check in a cell indicates a likely DES oppor­tunity for a business
Initial Framing – Business Models
Figure 7 Core DES Business Model Attributes and Associated Opportunities
Own
Distributed
Generation
Operate
Fund
Provide Information
Build
Business
Models Attributes
✘✔
Technologies
(DES)
Distributed
Storage
Electric
Vehicle
Infrastructure
Demand
Response
Information
and
Communic.
Technologies
Own
Operate
Fund
Provide Information
Build
Business
Models Attributes
Technologies
(DES)
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✘ ✘
✘
?
?
✔
✘
– –
–
–
✔
✔
✔
–
12	  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Figure 8  DES Business Model Attributes: EnerNOC (Real-World Demand Response)
Figure 9  DES Business Model Attributes: Hypothetical Institutional Microgrid
some type
Stakeholder
Needs
Own
Distributed
Generation
Operate
Fund
Provide Information
Build
Business
Models Attributes
✘✔
Technologies
(DES)
Distributed
Storage
Electric
Vehicle
Infrastructure
Demand
Response
Information
and
Communic.
Technologies
Own
Operate
Fund
Provide Information
Build
Business
Models Attributes
Technologies
(DES)
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✘ ✘
✘
?
?
✔
✘
– –
–
–
✔
✔
✔
–
Own
Distributed
Generation
Operate
Fund
Provide Information
Build
Business
Models Attributes
✘✔
Technologies
(DES)
Distributed
Storage
Electric
Vehicle
Infrastructure
Demand
Response
Information
and
Communic.
Technologies
Own
Operate
Fund
Provide Information
Build
Business
Models Attributes
Technologies
(DES)
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
✘ ✘
✘
?
?
✔
✘
– –
–
–
✔
✔
✔
–
Initial Framing – Business Models
model characterized by a specific attribute. A red“X” in a cell indicates an unlikely opportunity for a business
model structured around a given attribute. A black question mark indicates a possible but not particularly
strong opportunity. The green check on the half matrix on the right side identifies pairs of business model
attributes that have high potential for synergy as opposed to those with a black “–” that are neutral or to
those with a red “X” that are judged to conflict.
This business model framework can be applied to decompose, understand, and characterize real-world
examples of existing DES-related business models (see Figure 8) as well as prospective new business models
that might arise to accompany various DESs (see Figure 9).
Executive Summary
	 	 13
Emerging DESs may give birth to a range of new business models. Many of these DES business models will
be active in competitive, unregulated markets. These models may represent either new opportunities or new
competitors for non-regulated utility businesses, including generators, retailers, and energy services compa-
nies. But what will the growth of DESs entail for the business model of the regulated distribution utility?
As the utility business landscape rapidly evolves, the challenge for incumbent utilities is to find innova-
tive ways to retain the value proposition of their assets while capturing the opportunities presented by
new DESs and their component technologies. The business model for the regulated network utility of
the future is likely to be quite different than today.
In particular, the regulated distribution utility business model of the future will need to:
•	 Find a way to turn DER from a threat into an opportunity — e.g., as a new source of network use
charges and as a tool to improve system operation efficiencies or reliability;
•	 Master new and evolving technologies;
•	 Become more customer-facing and respond adroitly to evolving customer needs and uses
of the system;
•	 Develop new products and services that deliver value to network users and utility stakeholders; and
•	 Comply efficiently with a changing regulatory and policy environment.
Regulatory Issues
The regulation of the electric power sector has historically co-evolved with the underlying technical and
economic characteristics of the electricity system. Today, a new era of technological innovation, in partic-
ular at the distribution network level, requires a corresponding anticipative response of the regulatory
institutions.
In particular, regulation of distribution utilities must be proactively assessed (Figure 10 on page 14) and,
whenever appropriate, reformed in order to:
1.	 Enable the utility to more rapidly evolve to meet the changing needs of network users. This
requires updating remuneration schemes for regulated distribution utilities to better align the
incentives facing the utility and enable the evolution of the utility’s business model. Distribution
utilities must be adequately compensated for investments required to accommodate new DERs and
DESs and incentivized to make efficient use of these same resources to improve system reliability,
reduce losses, and defray unnecessary capital expenditures. Incentives to innovate may also be
considered to allow distribution utilities to take on the long-term challenges of developing and
adopting novel technologies and services necessary to accomplish their evolving role as a dynamic
system operator.
Initial Framing – Regulatory Issues
14	  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Figure 10 Relevant Areas of Regulatory Reform
Source: Pérez-Arriaga, Ruester, Schwenen, Batlle, and Glachant 2013.
some type
Stakeholder
Needs
Generation and load
connected to
transmission grid
TSO DSO
DER and load connected
to distribution grid
and retail markets
DSO as an actor along the value chain: Get the new tasks and boundaries vis-á-vis
the market and vis-á-vis the TSO right.
DSO as a network operator: Get the allowed remuneration, incentives to innovate
and grid tariff design right.
Initial Framing – Regulatory Issues
2.	 Provide efficient price signals for an increasingly diverse range of system users. Regulators must
rethink the design of network charges to ensure that allowed distribution costs are remunerated
despite changing cost structures and that appropriate price signals incentivize the efficient location
and use of new DERs. Network tariffs should provide incentives for network users to evolve
business models and practices that add value to the system and prevent users from arbitraging
weaknesses in market or regulatory design.
3.	 Define the proper industry structure and responsibilities of the distribution utility. The roles
and responsibilities of distribution utilities are very diverse in restructured power sectors around
the world. As a general rule — to be adapted to each particular situation — transparency require-
ments regarding commercial data availability and switching procedures should be adopted, and
the functions assigned to the network operator and the level of separation with other activities
must be revisited.
4.	Clarify the ways in which the distribution utility will interact with adjacent market actors,
including the Transmission System Operator (TSO), Distribution System Operator (DSO),
and new DES businesses. This also includes defining the way these market actors will interact
and coordinate to dispatch DERs and DESs.
Executive Summary
	 	 15
Who Can Benefit from the Study?
Who Can Benefit From the Study? / How to Join
Utilities that want to understand and develop
actionable strategies to manage the opportunities
and threats posed by the rapid changes facing the
electric power industry, including their funda-
mental relationships to other market participants
and industrial sectors.
Technology  Service Providers that want to
enhance their understanding of new market
opportunities and future customer needs with
respect to the changing electric utility industry.
Electricity End Users that would like to benefit
from new combinations of new distributed energy
systems that can provide them with new services,
lower-costs, and enhanced autonomy.
Regulators that seek to understand how to meet
the changing needs of system users; define the
proper industry structure and responsibilities of the
distribution utility; and clarify the ways in which
the distribution utility will interact with adjacent
market actors, including the TSO and new DES
businesses.
System Operators who can make use of services
offered by multiple actors and must cope with
a more uncertain environment, as well as estimate
the impact of distributed energy systems
on their businesses.
Policy Makers who desire to understand how
changes in the power sector will influence
policy objectives.
How to Join
The Utility of the Future at the MIT Energy Initiative is structured around the participation of corporate
and institutional sponsors that participate in providing financial support as well as industry and business
knowledge to the effort. The study is anticipated to be of a two-year duration beginning in the spring of 2014.
Corporate and institutional participation is available at two levels: Sponsors and Participants. All commit-
ments are for a period of two years. Sponsors and Participants will each receive advance copies of written
materials throughout the study period and will have the opportunity to provide feedback and submit
written comments. MIT will retain editorial authority. Additionally, Sponsors and Participants will take part
in interactive workshops where the findings will be presented and discussed among consortium members.
Sponsors ($125,000 per year for 2 years)
Sponsors are expected to be an integral part of The Utility of the Future study. Through their participation
on the Advisory Committee, Sponsors will participate in shaping the research questions, scenario develop-
ment, and the determination of critical issues and constraints. Sponsors will also be requested, where
appropriate, to provide assistance in the research activity, mostly via technical information and discussions.
They will be asked to appoint a single representative to serve on the Advisory Committee to the study.
Participants ($62,500 per year for 2 years)
Participants will be active members of the study. They will be asked to provide input and contribute
to discussions through ongoing engagement, attendance at the workshops, and the opportunity to
provide feedback.
16	  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus
Consortium Activities and Deliverables
Consortium Activities and Deliverables
Kick-off Call: One-on-one call with each new member to review scope and discuss key issues.
Bi-annual Workshops: One-day workshops for Sponsors and Participants focused on presentation
and review of the latest study findings.
Bi-annual Advisory Committee Meetings: Half-day consortium Advisory Committee meeting for
Sponsors to have the opportunity to shape the direction of the study.
EarlyAccess to Report and Findings: Advanced access to report and findings allowing each member
to provide input to the final report.
MITEI Fall Research Conference and Spring Symposium: All Members of The Utility of the Future
consortium will be invited to participate in these invitation-only MITEI events.
The Utility of the Future Final Report: The final study report will be a substantial multidisciplinary
academic report in the tradition of MIT’s Future of… series.
For additional information or to join the
­consortium please contact:
Louis J. Carranza
Associate Director, MITEI
Email: carranza@mit.edu
Telephone: +1.617.324.7029
Christie Ko
Assistant Director for Member Relations, MITEI
Email: cko@mit.edu
Telephone: +1.617.253.3478
Executive Summary
About the MIT Energy Initiative
MITEI works to help transform global energy systems. It is a research, education, and outreach program
that, in its depth and breadth, is without peer at U.S. academic institutions. An Institute-wide initiative,
MITEI pairs MIT’s world-class research teams with key players across the innovation spectrum to help
improve today’s energy systems and shape tomorrow’s global energy marketplace. It is also a resource for
policy makers and the public, providing unbiased analysis and serving as an honest broker for industry
and government.
MITEI has more than 68 industry and public partners and has funded more than 128 novel or early-stage
energy research projects submitted by faculty from across MIT.
MITEI’s educational offerings combine single-discipline depth with multidiscipline breadth, transforming
the MIT campus into an energy learning laboratory. The Energy Studies Minor established in 2009 is the
fifth largest minor at MIT.
About the MIT Energy Initiative
Massachusetts
Institute of
Technology
The Utility of the Future brings together a diverse consortium of leading international companies
to address emerging issues in the electric power sector, and provides a neutral framework within
which to evaluate the economic, regulatory, and technological impacts of the ongoing evolution
of the power sector worldwide. The study team from MIT and IIT-Comillas combines a breadth
of skills in quantitative economic and engineering modeling, with a sophisticated understanding
of the complex interactions in the electric power industry. The team includes faculty with
decades of experience in advising governments, corporations, and institutions on regulation
and market design. The consortium partners — industrial and other market participants —
bring valuable real-world expertise and experience to the study.

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20141015-Utility-Future-Study-Prospectus

  • 1. This research study seeks to determine the defining characteristics of the electric utility of 2025, ­identifying ­successful business models, regulatory trends, and ­transformative technologies. Massachusetts Institute of Technology IIT-Comillas The MIT Utility of the Future Study Prospectus for an Interdisciplinary MIT Energy Initiative Consortium
  • 2. The Team Principal Investigators Professor Ignacio Perez Arriaga Professor Perez Arriaga is Permanent Visiting Professor at the Center for Energy and Envi­ronmental Policy Research at MIT and Member of the EU Board of Appeal — Agency for the Coordination of Energy Regulators. He is Director of Training at the Florence School of Regulation, at the European University Institute. He is review editor of the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Perez Arriaga is Member of the Advisory Group of the Energy Roadmap 2050 for the Energy Directorate of the European Commission. He is a Life Member of the Spanish Royal Academy of Engineering, Director of the BP Chair on Sustainable Development at Comillas. He was an independent member of the Single Electricity Market Committee of Ireland, and Commissioner at the Spanish Electricity Regulatory Commission. Professor Christopher R. Knittel Christopher Knittel is the William Barton Rogers Professor of Energy Economics in the Sloan School of Management and the Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He joined the faculty at MIT in 2011. Professor Knittel received his BA in economics and political science from the California State University, Stanislaus in 1994, an MA in economics from UC Davis in 1996, and a PhD in economics from UC Berkeley in 1999. His research focuses on environmental economics, industrial organization, and applied econometrics. He is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the Productivity, Industrial Organization, and Energy and Environmental Economics groups. Professor Richard Lester Professor Richard Lester is Japan Steel Industry Professor and Head of the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he is also the faculty co-chair and founding Director of the MIT Industrial Performance Center. His research focuses on innovation management and policy, with an emphasis on the energy and manufacturing sectors. As director of the Industrial Performance Center, Dr. Lester has led several major studies of national and regional competitiveness and innovation perfor- mance commissioned by governments and industrial groups around the world. In the Local Innovation Systems Project, he directed a study about the tech­nological trans­formation of industries in regional econo- mies and the role of universities in that process. He currently serves as faculty advisor to the MIT President’s Council on Regional Engagement. Faculty Committee Prof. John Deutch (MIT) Prof. Tomas Gomez (Comillas) Prof. Steven Leeb (MIT) Prof. Les Norford (MIT) Prof. Nancy Rose (MIT) Prof. Richard Schmalensee (MIT) Directors Dr. Richard D. Tabors (MIT) Dr. Raanan A. Miller (MIT) Research Team Ashwini Bharatkumar (MIT) Scott Burger (MIT) José Pablo Chaves (Comillas) Jesse D. Jenkins (MIT) Dr. Raanan A. Miller (MIT) Dr. Richard D. Tabors (MIT) Additional Students (TBD) Advisors Prof. Carlos Batlle (Comillas) Prof. Pablo Frías (Comillas) Prof. Javier Reneses (Comillas) Prof. Michel Rivier (Comillas) Prof. Álvaro Sánchez (Comillas)  THE MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study PROSPECTUS Copyright © 2014 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. The Team For additional information or to join the consortium please contact: Louis J. Carranza Associate Director, MITEI Email: carranza@mit.edu Telephone: +1.617.324.7029 Christie Ko Assistant Director for Member   Relations, MITEI Email: cko@mit.edu Telephone: +1.617.253.3478
  • 3. 1 Executive SummaryOverview Overview The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) has a long history of identifying research topics that lend themselves to a consortium approach. Such topics benefit from aggregating a diverse set of perspectives on a set of critical issues facing the industry at large. This “commons” approach benefits all of the partners, while enabling each member to individually benefit from an increased understanding of the unique implications to their organization. The Utility of the Future brings together a diverse consortium of leading international companies to address emerging issues in the electric power sector, and provides a neutral framework within which to evaluate the economic, regulatory, and technological impacts of the ongoing evolution of the power sector world- wide. The study team from MIT and IIT-Comillas combines a breadth of skills in quantitative economic and engineering modeling, with a sophisticated understanding of the complex interactions in the electric power industry. The team includes faculty with decades of experience in advising governments, corporations, and institutions on regulation and market design. The consortium partners — industrial and other market participants — bring valuable real-world expertise and experience to the study. The electric power sector is poised for transformative change. Improvements in the cost and performance of a range of distributed energy generation (DG) technologies and the potential for breakthroughs in distributed energy storage (DS) are creating new options for on-site power generation and storage, driving increasing adoption and impacting utility distribution system operations. In addition, changing uses and use patterns for electricity — from plug-in electric vehicles (EV) to demand response (DR) — are altering demands on the electric power system. Finally, the infusion of new information and communications technology (ICT) into the electric system and its markets is enabling the collection of immense volumes of data on power sector operations and use; unprecedented control of generation, networks, and loads; and new opportunities for the delivery of energy services. The combination of ICTs and various distributed energy resources (DER) — including DG, DS, EVs, and DR — will allow the creation and proliferation of new distributed energy systems (DES), from microgrids and virtual power plants to remotely aggregated controllable loads and smart charging systems for EV fleets. DESs are systems combining one or more DERs, including DG, DS, and/or demand response, with ICTs. These DESs will spawn a range of new business models capable of providing value to end-use energy consumers and upstream electricity market actors alike. The nature and penetration of these business models will be heavily influenced by policy and regulation, and the combination of novel DESs, regulation, and business models will shape the utilities of the future.
  • 4. 2  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Approach, Key Questions, and Outcomes Approach, Key Questions, and Outcomes The Utility of the Future, an interdisciplinary MITEI consortium, will seek to answer the question: what will be the defining characteristics of the electric utility of 2025? This fundamental question encompasses many sub-questions and areas of research. In particular, The Utility of the Future will develop and analyze scenarios of DES technologies, business models, and regulatory environments to understand how the electricity system will change over the coming decade. This analysis will include identifying potential business models that may emerge and identifying the factors — policy, regulatory, economic, financial, or technical — that will drive a model’s success or failure. The potential for these business models to disrupt or complement the activities of incumbent utilities will be assessed. Opportunities for incumbent utilities and new market actors — including those from sectors ranging from natural gas and transportation to ITC and buildings — to capitalize on these changes will be highlighted. Furthermore, scenarios will consider the development of DESs under a range of public policy and regulatory frameworks. The study will analyze the ability of current policy and regulation to provide a neutral playing field for all existing and emerging technologies and business models and, where necessary, will propose new regulatory schemes and policy paradigms. The Utility of the Future team will utilize existing analytical tools and relevant literature and develop new models where needed to address the questions posed above. In a style that is the hallmark of MITEI’s Future of… series, The Utility of the Future will be a benchmark academic study of the evolving electric power sector. The study will identify and assess candidate technolo- gies and business models and evaluate their impact from a systems perspective. Plausible visions of the electric utility sector of the future will be developed. Finally, the study will provide findings and actionable recommendations for various mar­ket actors and stakeholders in an industry undergoing dramatic change, including incumbent utilities, regulators, policy makers, the private sector, and electricity consumers. Research Questions The following questions will be central to defining the characteristics of the utility industry of 2025: • What new business models will succeed in the electric power industry of the future? • What factors — be they technological, economic regulatory, or otherwise — will determine the magnitude of the impact or the penetration rates of the identified business models and technologies? • How will the identified business models complement or compete with the services provided by the incumbent utilities and other incumbent market actors? • How must regulatory frameworks evolve to allow for an economically and environmentally sustainable electric power industry to develop? • How can other sectors (i.e., gas, ICT, ­buildings, transportation, etc.) influence, be affected by, or participate in the trans­formation that is underway in the electric power industry? • What is the range of plausible scenarios for the evolution of the electric power system in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere?
  • 5. 3 Executive Summary Expected Outcomes The Utility of the Future will: • Identify and assess the characteristics and magnitude of the impact of candidate DES technologies and business models on the system, new and incumbent market actors, and policy and regulatory decision makers. • Identify the impact of current regulation on the development of the electric power system and suggest improvements to existing regulation as well as novel regulatory frameworks. • Develop and present multiple plausible scenarios for the electric power system of the future. • Provide findings and actionable recom­mendations for incumbent utilities, new market entrants, regulators, policy makers, the private sector, and consumers. Conceptual Framework – System of Systems A hallmark of The Utility of the Future study is an integrated systems view of the electric power sector. Analysis of the technologies driving change in the power sector, emergent business models, and key regulatory questions will culminate into holistic assessment of systems-level scenarios. These scenarios will capture the complex interactions between the multiple components of the power system to enhance our understanding of the plausible shape of the next decade’s electric utility sector. In order to evaluate the roles of and interactions between the diverse sets of stakeholders in the power system, we take a system of systems approach as illustrated in Figure 1 on page 4. DESs comprised of DERs and ICTs are integrated with business models to deliver value to stakeholders. These transactions of value between system agents take place within a regulatory framework. The regulatory framework, in turn, is a component of the broader socio-technical system called “the electric power system,” which is charac- terized by a range of possible technological, economic, geographic, and political contexts. From bottom-up assessments of each subsystem of the power sector, we will build a set of scenarios of future power systems and a set of possible visions of the utility of the future. Conceptual Framework – System of Systems
  • 6. 4  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Figure 1 A System of Systems Perspective some type Service Provider Stakeholder Needs Stakeholder Needs Business Attributes Value Delivery Revenue Business Model Regulatory Framework Socio-Technical System:“the electric power system”(e.g., technological, economic, geographic, and political context) DES Other ICT DER Structure and Methodology Structure and ­Methodology The Utility of the Future research initiative can be split into four distinct layers as shown in Figure 2 on page 6: (1) candidates and tools; (2) evaluation; (3) implications; and (4) outcomes. While each layer has a unique thrust and focus, they are all interrelated. The final outcome of one layer is critical to the development and completion of the next. The four layers of the study each touch upon various parts of the research questions posed in the “Approach, Key Questions, and Outcomes” section of this prospectus. The primary thrust of each layer is described below. Layer 1: Candidates and Tools 1. Identify and classify new value propositions stemming from DES business models and their component technologies. • Screen energy industry news sources to understand and summarize state of play and potential future developments. • Scan MIT and IIT research activities and knowledge base for evidence of cutting-edge developments. • Consider “game changing” technologies, including “leapfrogging” in emerging economies.
  • 7. 5 Executive Summary 2. Develop and adapt analytical models for simulation, optimization, and techno-economic- regulatory evaluation of DES business models and systems interaction effects. • Candidate models include Reference Network Models, Optimization Models (DER-CAM), Optimal Power Flow models, and others. 3. Characterize key features of existing ­regulatory frameworks and develop novel regulatory proposals that will allow for the development of an environmentally and economically sustainable electric power system. Layer 2: Evaluation 4. Perform technical, economic, and regulatory assessment of candidate business models and system interaction effects using the inputs from Layer 1. • Employ analytical tools identified and developed in Layer 1 to evaluate candidate value propositions. • Develop “test systems” representative of a broad range of system/regulatory/market conditions in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. • Use the output of the models to identify and inform new regulations and business models to analyze. Layer 3: Implications 5. Analyze the direct challenges to the status quo for system operators, regulators, markets, industry structure, and new market actors. 6. Analyze how the power sector will be influenced by other key interacting sectors, including natural gas, transportation, ITCs, buildings, etc. 7. Propose alternative strategies for incumbent utilities and other major players in the evolving market. • Analyze strengths, weaknesses, oppor­tunities and threats for key market actors. Layer 4: Outcomes 8. Synthesize and report the findings for incumbent utilities and other major market players, new DES-related business models, and regulators and policy makers. 9. Develop and present detailed scenarios that capture the range of likely outcomes of the utility sector of the future. Structure and Methodology
  • 8. 6  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Figure 2  The Utility of the Future Study Structure Identify Existing Develop Improved Regulatory Frameworks 1: Candidates Tools 2: Evaluation 3: Implications 4: Outcomes Develop Adapt Analytical Models Identify Classify New Candidate Value Propositions Game- Changing Technologies Screen Available News Research MIT Brainstorm Expert Scan Techno-Economic- Regulatory Assessment Power Sector as Influenced by Other Sectors: Gas; Transport; ICT; Buildings; Others Implications for the Status Quo: Markets, System Operators, Industry Structure, Regulations Strategies Available to Incumbent Utilities Scenarios for Utility Sector of the Future Findings for Regulators Policy Makers Findings for New Business Models Findings for Incumbent Utilities Inputs Core Activities Structure and Methodology
  • 9. Executive Summary 7 Initial Framing – Technology Assessment Initial Framing In preparation for this consortium study, the MIT team has performed an initial assessment of technologies, business models, and regulatory issues that will underpin the analysis to be undertaken by this two-year research effort. The outcome of this initial assessment is summarized below. Technology Assessment Improvements in the performance and cost characteristics of DERs — including DG, DS, and DR — underpin the potential for the growth of DESs. Innovation in information and communication tech­ nologies — such as advanced sensing and control devices and communication protocols — are also critical to transforming the electricity distribution sector into a more adaptive, responsive system. What is a Distributed Energy System? A DES system combines one or more DERs, including DG, DS, and/or DR, with ICTs to enable a business model that provides valued services to energy end users or upstream electricity market actors. Such systems will be distributed throughout the electricity distribution network and adjacent customer properties in a number of different topologies (see Figure 3). Some DESs will be owned or operated by traditional regulated distribution utilities while others will be owned, managed, and operated by end-use electricity consumers and/or by third parties operating in competitive market environments. DESs may enable the provision of a variety of different services, from end-use energy services such as lighting, heating, and cooling to upstream electricity market services such as capacity or ancillary services. DESs can be further described with the three-layer framework illustrated in Figure 4 on page 8. Figure 3 Illustrative DES Topologies
  • 10. 8  MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Figure 4 Technology Building Blocks of DESs some type Stakeholder Needs Monitoring and Data Mgmt. Tools Revenue Analysis Tools Decision Making Tools Control Tools Data Collection Tools (AMR, AMI) Controllability Tools Distr. Energy Resources (DER)Loads Internet Telecommunications Networks Power Distribution Networks Components Input Defined by Business Model Systems Environment (Regulation, Market, etc.) Layer 1: Physical Layer 2: Communications Layer 3: Intelligence Parts of DESs Parts of Traditional Power and Telecom Systems f(x) Initial Framing – Technology Assessment Distributed Energy Resources: a “Disruptive Threat”? The first step toward evaluating potential futures that may emerge for electric utilities is identifying and understanding the tech­nologies likely to play a significant role in the evolution of the electric power sector. This includes both technologies likely to drive the shift toward a more distributed paradigm and technolo- gies likely to emerge in response to new needs created by regulatory or business model evolution in the power sector, such as the need for increased system flexibility in response to the increasing penetration of intermittent renewables. Figure 5 depicts an initial qualitative assessment of the potential for key DER technologies to prove disrup- tive to power system operations, business models, and regulation. Within each technology category, the prospective impact of DERs is indicated with a solid or dashed line in the short, medium, and long terms. Solid lines indicate high impact and thus greater potential for disruptiveness and dashed lines indicate lower impact and thus limited disruptiveness. Question marks indicate insufficient data to determine the likely impact at this time.
  • 11. Executive Summary 9 Initial Framing – Technology Assessment Figure 5  Projected Potential for Disruptiveness of Key DES Component Technologies Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? PV / CHP Reciprocating Engine Wind Fuel Cells / Microturbines CSP Thermoelectric Materials Nuclear DistributedGeneration Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years) Fossil Fuel Boiler / Air Heat Pump Geothermal Heat Pump / Solar Hot Water Solar Thermal DistributedGeneration (Thermal) DistributedStorage Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years) Slow Charge Fast Charge Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years) Manual Demand Response AMI / Smart Local Appliances / LAN Local Energy Management Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years) Non-Controllable 1-Way / Plug-in Controllable 1-Way 2-Ways / Static Inducting Mobile Inducting DemandResponse Electric Vehicle Batteries Electric Vehicle Charging NaS / Li-ion Molton Salt Thermal / Ice Thermal / Flywheels Pb Acid / NmH Flow Metal Air / SuperCapacitors Superconducting Magnetic Energy (SMES) Long Term (15+ years)Medium Term (5–15 years)Short Term (0–5 years) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
  • 12. 10   MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Figure 6 System Dynamics of DER Adoption some type Stakeholder Needs Wholesale Generation Volume + + + + + + + + + + – – – ? + + + ++ + ? – – + + + + R R + RR – R B Wholesale Electricity Prices Loop Collection of Transmission Volumetric Toll Wholesale Generation Revenues Marginal Generation Cost Loop Marginal Generator’s Production Cost Wholesale Generator’s Financial Outlook Transmission Utility Revenues Wholesale Generator’s Cost of Capital Distribution Utility Revenues Wholesale Electricity Prices Distribution Utility Costs Effect on Tariff Loop Distribution Grid Costs Cost of Retail Electricity Regulatory Adequacy for DES-DER Financial Incentives from Government, Utility or Aggregator Valuation of Unfulfilled Needs Met by DERs EE DER EE Consumer Adoption Maturation and RD in DER EE Technology Improvement Loop DER EE Performance DER EE Valuation Scale Economies Technology Cost Loop DER EE Production and Installation Costs + Distribution Utility Revenues Effect on Tariffs Loop Change in Grid Usage Profile Power Purchased from the Grid Transmission Utility Revenues Effect on Tariffs Loop Collection of Distribution Volumetric Toll Initial Framing – Technology Assessment Faced with the wide range of emerging DERs cataloged here, many electric utilities and industry observers have worried that these new technology trends will prove massively disruptive to the age-old utility business model. Analogies have been drawn to the deregulation of the airline industries or the overthrow of the landline telephone business by wireless cellular technology. Some observers predict a“death spiral” that could see DER adoption become a self-reinforcing cycle that decimates the incumbent utility’s core business. In this cycle, improvement in the price and performance of DERs (and end-use energy efficiency) spurs customer adoption, which reduces utility revenues. Reduced revenues then require a rate increase to cover the utility’s fixed costs. Higher rates in turn drive even more adoption of DERs and efficiency. The growing use of DERs clearly represents a paradigm shift in the operation of the electric power sector. Business models and regulation of incumbent utilities will both need to evolve to keep pace with the changing nature of network uses and end-use customer needs. At the same time, the system dynamics or feedback loops associated with adoption of a DER are much more nuanced and complicated than the simple “death spiral” described above (see Figure 6). Our research indicates that, while a self-reinforcing feedback loop for DER adoption is possible, it is not pre-ordained. Careful examination and analysis of the poten­tial system dynamics at play as DER adoption increases will be essential to determine the ultimate impact on incumbent distribution utilities and others across the value chain.
  • 13. Executive Summary 11 Business Models The business models of electric utilities have co-evolved over more than a century alongside a changing regulatory environment. Over the last two decades, an era of industry and regulatory restructuring saw electric utilities evolve from protected franchise electricity suppliers to a diverse blend of regulated integrated utilities, monopoly network companies, and competitive generators, retailers, and other service providers. Today, the growth of DESs is further accelerating business model innovation in the power sector, as incumbents evolve and new entrants emerge to respond to and take advantage of the new characteristics and services offered by these systems. In order to understand the potential business models that might arise in the evolving electricity sector, we present a framework that helps explore and understand the logic of business models and identify the most suitable business opportunities in the context of DESs. Based on the economic activities that exist in electric power systems, we have defined five core“attributes”of DES-related business models. At the highest level, the attributes of the business model can be characterized by the primary activities of the business. Specifically, the business may: • Own assets; • Operate assets and/or systems of assets; • Fund the acquisition or the operation of assets; • Provide information and related services to asset owners or operators; or • Build or manufacture assets. The matrix shown in Figure 7 illustrates the multiple DER-related business opportunities (horizontal axis) that would be best suited to a given business model attribute, as well as the core business attributes (vertical axis) that are most commonly linked together in specific business models (the half matrix on the right-hand side). Within the matrix, a green check in a cell indicates a likely DES oppor­tunity for a business Initial Framing – Business Models Figure 7 Core DES Business Model Attributes and Associated Opportunities Own Distributed Generation Operate Fund Provide Information Build Business Models Attributes ✘✔ Technologies (DES) Distributed Storage Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Demand Response Information and Communic. Technologies Own Operate Fund Provide Information Build Business Models Attributes Technologies (DES) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✘ ✘ ✘ ? ? ✔ ✘ – – – – ✔ ✔ ✔ –
  • 14. 12   MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Figure 8  DES Business Model Attributes: EnerNOC (Real-World Demand Response) Figure 9  DES Business Model Attributes: Hypothetical Institutional Microgrid some type Stakeholder Needs Own Distributed Generation Operate Fund Provide Information Build Business Models Attributes ✘✔ Technologies (DES) Distributed Storage Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Demand Response Information and Communic. Technologies Own Operate Fund Provide Information Build Business Models Attributes Technologies (DES) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✘ ✘ ✘ ? ? ✔ ✘ – – – – ✔ ✔ ✔ – Own Distributed Generation Operate Fund Provide Information Build Business Models Attributes ✘✔ Technologies (DES) Distributed Storage Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Demand Response Information and Communic. Technologies Own Operate Fund Provide Information Build Business Models Attributes Technologies (DES) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✘ ✘ ✘ ? ? ✔ ✘ – – – – ✔ ✔ ✔ – Initial Framing – Business Models model characterized by a specific attribute. A red“X” in a cell indicates an unlikely opportunity for a business model structured around a given attribute. A black question mark indicates a possible but not particularly strong opportunity. The green check on the half matrix on the right side identifies pairs of business model attributes that have high potential for synergy as opposed to those with a black “–” that are neutral or to those with a red “X” that are judged to conflict. This business model framework can be applied to decompose, understand, and characterize real-world examples of existing DES-related business models (see Figure 8) as well as prospective new business models that might arise to accompany various DESs (see Figure 9).
  • 15. Executive Summary 13 Emerging DESs may give birth to a range of new business models. Many of these DES business models will be active in competitive, unregulated markets. These models may represent either new opportunities or new competitors for non-regulated utility businesses, including generators, retailers, and energy services compa- nies. But what will the growth of DESs entail for the business model of the regulated distribution utility? As the utility business landscape rapidly evolves, the challenge for incumbent utilities is to find innova- tive ways to retain the value proposition of their assets while capturing the opportunities presented by new DESs and their component technologies. The business model for the regulated network utility of the future is likely to be quite different than today. In particular, the regulated distribution utility business model of the future will need to: • Find a way to turn DER from a threat into an opportunity — e.g., as a new source of network use charges and as a tool to improve system operation efficiencies or reliability; • Master new and evolving technologies; • Become more customer-facing and respond adroitly to evolving customer needs and uses of the system; • Develop new products and services that deliver value to network users and utility stakeholders; and • Comply efficiently with a changing regulatory and policy environment. Regulatory Issues The regulation of the electric power sector has historically co-evolved with the underlying technical and economic characteristics of the electricity system. Today, a new era of technological innovation, in partic- ular at the distribution network level, requires a corresponding anticipative response of the regulatory institutions. In particular, regulation of distribution utilities must be proactively assessed (Figure 10 on page 14) and, whenever appropriate, reformed in order to: 1. Enable the utility to more rapidly evolve to meet the changing needs of network users. This requires updating remuneration schemes for regulated distribution utilities to better align the incentives facing the utility and enable the evolution of the utility’s business model. Distribution utilities must be adequately compensated for investments required to accommodate new DERs and DESs and incentivized to make efficient use of these same resources to improve system reliability, reduce losses, and defray unnecessary capital expenditures. Incentives to innovate may also be considered to allow distribution utilities to take on the long-term challenges of developing and adopting novel technologies and services necessary to accomplish their evolving role as a dynamic system operator. Initial Framing – Regulatory Issues
  • 16. 14   MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Figure 10 Relevant Areas of Regulatory Reform Source: Pérez-Arriaga, Ruester, Schwenen, Batlle, and Glachant 2013. some type Stakeholder Needs Generation and load connected to transmission grid TSO DSO DER and load connected to distribution grid and retail markets DSO as an actor along the value chain: Get the new tasks and boundaries vis-á-vis the market and vis-á-vis the TSO right. DSO as a network operator: Get the allowed remuneration, incentives to innovate and grid tariff design right. Initial Framing – Regulatory Issues 2. Provide efficient price signals for an increasingly diverse range of system users. Regulators must rethink the design of network charges to ensure that allowed distribution costs are remunerated despite changing cost structures and that appropriate price signals incentivize the efficient location and use of new DERs. Network tariffs should provide incentives for network users to evolve business models and practices that add value to the system and prevent users from arbitraging weaknesses in market or regulatory design. 3. Define the proper industry structure and responsibilities of the distribution utility. The roles and responsibilities of distribution utilities are very diverse in restructured power sectors around the world. As a general rule — to be adapted to each particular situation — transparency require- ments regarding commercial data availability and switching procedures should be adopted, and the functions assigned to the network operator and the level of separation with other activities must be revisited. 4. Clarify the ways in which the distribution utility will interact with adjacent market actors, including the Transmission System Operator (TSO), Distribution System Operator (DSO), and new DES businesses. This also includes defining the way these market actors will interact and coordinate to dispatch DERs and DESs.
  • 17. Executive Summary 15 Who Can Benefit from the Study? Who Can Benefit From the Study? / How to Join Utilities that want to understand and develop actionable strategies to manage the opportunities and threats posed by the rapid changes facing the electric power industry, including their funda- mental relationships to other market participants and industrial sectors. Technology Service Providers that want to enhance their understanding of new market opportunities and future customer needs with respect to the changing electric utility industry. Electricity End Users that would like to benefit from new combinations of new distributed energy systems that can provide them with new services, lower-costs, and enhanced autonomy. Regulators that seek to understand how to meet the changing needs of system users; define the proper industry structure and responsibilities of the distribution utility; and clarify the ways in which the distribution utility will interact with adjacent market actors, including the TSO and new DES businesses. System Operators who can make use of services offered by multiple actors and must cope with a more uncertain environment, as well as estimate the impact of distributed energy systems on their businesses. Policy Makers who desire to understand how changes in the power sector will influence policy objectives. How to Join The Utility of the Future at the MIT Energy Initiative is structured around the participation of corporate and institutional sponsors that participate in providing financial support as well as industry and business knowledge to the effort. The study is anticipated to be of a two-year duration beginning in the spring of 2014. Corporate and institutional participation is available at two levels: Sponsors and Participants. All commit- ments are for a period of two years. Sponsors and Participants will each receive advance copies of written materials throughout the study period and will have the opportunity to provide feedback and submit written comments. MIT will retain editorial authority. Additionally, Sponsors and Participants will take part in interactive workshops where the findings will be presented and discussed among consortium members. Sponsors ($125,000 per year for 2 years) Sponsors are expected to be an integral part of The Utility of the Future study. Through their participation on the Advisory Committee, Sponsors will participate in shaping the research questions, scenario develop- ment, and the determination of critical issues and constraints. Sponsors will also be requested, where appropriate, to provide assistance in the research activity, mostly via technical information and discussions. They will be asked to appoint a single representative to serve on the Advisory Committee to the study. Participants ($62,500 per year for 2 years) Participants will be active members of the study. They will be asked to provide input and contribute to discussions through ongoing engagement, attendance at the workshops, and the opportunity to provide feedback.
  • 18. 16   MIT UTILITY OF THE FUTURE study Prospectus Consortium Activities and Deliverables Consortium Activities and Deliverables Kick-off Call: One-on-one call with each new member to review scope and discuss key issues. Bi-annual Workshops: One-day workshops for Sponsors and Participants focused on presentation and review of the latest study findings. Bi-annual Advisory Committee Meetings: Half-day consortium Advisory Committee meeting for Sponsors to have the opportunity to shape the direction of the study. EarlyAccess to Report and Findings: Advanced access to report and findings allowing each member to provide input to the final report. MITEI Fall Research Conference and Spring Symposium: All Members of The Utility of the Future consortium will be invited to participate in these invitation-only MITEI events. The Utility of the Future Final Report: The final study report will be a substantial multidisciplinary academic report in the tradition of MIT’s Future of… series. For additional information or to join the ­consortium please contact: Louis J. Carranza Associate Director, MITEI Email: carranza@mit.edu Telephone: +1.617.324.7029 Christie Ko Assistant Director for Member Relations, MITEI Email: cko@mit.edu Telephone: +1.617.253.3478
  • 19. Executive Summary About the MIT Energy Initiative MITEI works to help transform global energy systems. It is a research, education, and outreach program that, in its depth and breadth, is without peer at U.S. academic institutions. An Institute-wide initiative, MITEI pairs MIT’s world-class research teams with key players across the innovation spectrum to help improve today’s energy systems and shape tomorrow’s global energy marketplace. It is also a resource for policy makers and the public, providing unbiased analysis and serving as an honest broker for industry and government. MITEI has more than 68 industry and public partners and has funded more than 128 novel or early-stage energy research projects submitted by faculty from across MIT. MITEI’s educational offerings combine single-discipline depth with multidiscipline breadth, transforming the MIT campus into an energy learning laboratory. The Energy Studies Minor established in 2009 is the fifth largest minor at MIT. About the MIT Energy Initiative
  • 20. Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Utility of the Future brings together a diverse consortium of leading international companies to address emerging issues in the electric power sector, and provides a neutral framework within which to evaluate the economic, regulatory, and technological impacts of the ongoing evolution of the power sector worldwide. The study team from MIT and IIT-Comillas combines a breadth of skills in quantitative economic and engineering modeling, with a sophisticated understanding of the complex interactions in the electric power industry. The team includes faculty with decades of experience in advising governments, corporations, and institutions on regulation and market design. The consortium partners — industrial and other market participants — bring valuable real-world expertise and experience to the study.