Tunisia is in a transition stage with a new government that must address the COVID-19 pandemic. There are several possible post-COVID scenarios depending on government performance and vaccine development. The document outlines 4 scenarios: 1) "Stairway to Heaven" if government performance is excellent and a vaccine is found. 2) "Country Road" if government performs well but no vaccine. 3) "You've Got a Friend" if government performs poorly but a vaccine is found. 4) "Epitaph" if government and vaccine efforts both fail. Each scenario discusses the potential political, economic, health and social impacts.

1. Tunisia POST
COVID-19 SENARIOS
Prepared by Pr Jalel Ezzin, Rania Latiri, Rahma Ben Lazreg, Chiraz Hafsa

2. Tunisia is now in a transition stage, with a new government, having barely taken the control
of the political scene, it has to build strategies to face the most spreading pandemic of all
times .
There are a number of future post covid-19 scenarios. However every future exercise must
respond to the needs and the will of its own social, cultural, political and economic context.
To design a post Covid -19 scenarios we have to take into consideration, hard trends and signs
of disruption. Other factors and events have to be taken into account to conceive possible,
probable and desirable scenarios.
Building near futures scenarios
1

3. Timeline of the management of the first wave of Covid-19 in Tunisia
First covid-19 case detected 2-3-2020
6-3-2020
First phase of the fight against Covid-
19: Closure of schools, suspension of
public transport, and suspension of
travel from countries at risk.Self-isolation for 14 days for all
travelers. Cultural events are
canceled. Restaurants, cafes and bars
close from 4 p.m. and collective
prayers are suspended.
Curfew from 6 pm to 6 am and borders
closure
10,000 rooms have been fitted out in
hotels, centers and hostels to
accommodate returnees from abroad.
Total lockdown except vital activities.
Budget expansion allocation for health
and social expenses
13-3-2020
18-3-2020
22-3-2020
2-4-2020
4-5-2020
2

4. 18-5-2020
28-5-2020
14-6-2020
27-6-2020
People over the age of 65 and those
under the age of 15 are now allowed
to go out.
End of the first wave declared
Resumption of courses for bachelors
Restricted borders reopening
End of the first phase of the lockdown.
50% of the service public, industrial,
building sector, service sector are
allowed to work.
4-5-2020
• 1,186 Declared cases
• 1,025 Recovered cases
• 93 Active cases
• 50 Deceased
Results of the pandemic first wave (Worldometers 28-06-2020)
3

5. In this work we went through the actual situation and based our thinking on two uncertainties key
drivers:
1- The first one is an assessment of the government performance facing the pandemic, going
from excellent to unflattering,
2- The second is whether or not the medical society developed a vaccine against the corona
disease
We have considered five macro-environmental factors :
The methodological approach is a cross checking of scientific data, experts reports and analysis.
We have mobilised a team students from the IHEC of Sousse (Institute of the High Commercial
Studies of Sousse) to gather and select data and to bring out the most accurate ones.
Work design
HealthPolitics Economy Geopolitics Social
4

6. Vaccine +
Vaccine -
Government - Government +
1
Country Road
3
You’ve got a friend
24
Stairway to Heaven
Epitaph
We come up with 4 possible future scenarios: 5

7. Scenario 1 : Stairway to Heaven (Government+/Vaccine+)
Politics
Pragmatic and agile leadership
• Only effective practice is considered (no time for ideological consideration)
• Common vision about priorities: sovereignty, equity and progress.
• Foundation of a research center working on new mega trends: dematerialization, “deglobalization",
“depandemization”
• Official communication: Clear, assertive and transparent
Economy
• More State and better State: Expansionist politics in innovation (technology and alternative energy),
transportation, education, health care, agriculture (State investment, tax concessions for agriculture
innovators…)
• Temporary moratorium on official debts with renegotiation of multilateral debts
• Measures to curb parallel economy, tax evasion and corruption through digitalization
(dematerialization of payment)
Geopolitics
• Repositioning of Tunisia as a privileged economic and political partner mainly with their classic ones:
France, Italy and Germany
• Priority is given to international cooperation and economic diplomacy
• Algeria continues providing Tunisia material, energy and political support
Health
• The vaccine is ready and the second wave is discarded
• The government take in charge the administration of the vaccine to the population
• Investment to enhance hospital capacity with the implementation of Covid-19 health unity in every
governorate and to foster medical and pharmaceutical research and innovation
Social
• Reinforcement of social protection system and safety net based on transparent and well documented
platform, targeting strategy and big data
• Financial and health support to household and people with low income
• Free technology trainings as an effective action to implement the “learning society “ *
6

8. Scenario 2 : Country Road (Gouvernement +/Vaccine -)
Politics
Caring and controlling leadership
• The head of the government succeed to obtain high consensus among ARP members about the immediate
concerns: saving life, saving job, secure borders
• Restructuring the judiciary system and strict application of the law
• Accommodating and comforting communication
Economic
• More state: Measures to curb parallel economy, tax evasion and corruption through digitalization
(dematerialization of payment)
• Financial support to most harmed sectors
• Strengthening youth participation in creating high added value activities by offering grant and facilities
Geopolitics
• Neutral stance towards neighboring political conflict specifically Libya and solidarity with threatened
people.
• Tunisia helped bringing national reconciliation and healing in Libya
• Loyalty is observed toward friendly sister states.
Health
• Since there is no vaccine stricter measures to prevent new contaminations: progressive borders opening,
penalty for non-respect of self-isolation, observing safety precautions…
• Investment to enhance hospital capacity and to improve preventive solution by fostering digital
solutions:contact tracing, auto-diagnosis, content curation to tackle misinformation
• Optimal working condition are afforded to stop the exodus of doctors and health personnel
Social
• Reinforcement of social protection system and safety net based on transparent and well documented
platform, targeting strategy and big data
• Financial and health support are granted to household, elderly people and persons with low income.
• Implementation of the remote work, are bringing more flexibility, more cooperation, more self-resilience.
7

9. Scenario 3 : You’ve got a friend (Government -/Vaccine +)
Politics
Inefficient leadership
• Tensions and group polarization in the ARP
• Common vision hardly reached to stay on course to ensure the economic recovery
• Official communication: Ambiguous, on the defensive, no solutions exposed
Economy
A “déjà vu” recovery plan
• Temporary financial support of more impacted SME: intervention of the government and the central bank to
prevent insolvency and to permit delay in credit payment…but ineffective efforts to reduce unemployment
• Half-heartedly measures to curb corruption, market speculation and tax evasion
• Support for traditional sectors of the economy: tourism, banking and rent seeking activity
Geopolitics
• Ask for international solidarity through specific credit lines
• Lack of efficiency in economic diplomacy, renewal of diplomatic relations with Italy and China
• Division in the position towards the situation in the neighboring countries with military clashes on the borders
Health
• Disparity in getting access to the vaccine
• Lack of efficiency in preventing new contaminations: no more testing, no more compulsory self-isolation, no
effective covid mitigation measures
• Restriction on entry only for travelers (foreign national and tourist) coming from countries with high
contamination risk
Social
• Increased food insecurity and poverty, rise of criminality, looting, illegal immigration, in return severe police
oppression
• Increased post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, suicide
• Important contribution of the Red Crescent, NGOs and the civil society to heal the situation.
8

10. Scenario 4 : Epitaph (Government-/ vaccine-)
Politics
Destructive leadership
• Corruption and political instability exacerbate at the head of the government
• Tunisia’s Political Polarization worsens after the first wave pandemic
• Violent political confrontation, rivalry and radicalism
Economy
• Interest group and lobbies, economic banditry and illegal market stormed the country's economy
• Economic austerity continues to be applied at the expense of the laborers and the middle class
• SME s in difficulty are left to their own devices leading to an unprecedented collapse , national companies are
forced into bankruptcy, massive layoffs
Geopolitics
• Foreign lobbies are lurking around to put their hand on national strategic sectors
• Division in the position towards the situation in the neighboring countries with military clashes on the borders
• Political chaos undermined the image of the country; cooperation, mutual aid and international solidarity are no
more expected
Health
• No vaccine ready. No more restrictions for entry for travelers, nor strict confinement measures are applied.
New mutated corona virus cluster emerges.
• Total collapse of the health system, speculation, fake medical supplies and treatment are spreading in the
black market.
• Exhausted medical staff and personnel health are overwhelmed due to a weak hospital capacity and a luck of
effective medical equipment (ICU beds, ventilators…)
Social
• Marginalization of basic human rights and feeling of insecurity have caused social protest, riot and violence,
rural banditry, civil war
• Impoverishment of the middle class, poverty and famine reached unprecedented levels and continues to grow
• Exacerbated social unrest and political turmoil weakens our police and military institutions facilitating the
invasion of the country by fundamentalists mainly across the Libyan border.
9

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X&ved=2ahUKEwjr7Yzo2PLoAhUk8uAKHfK_BbcQ6AEwA3oECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=le%20protectorat%20fran%C3%A7ais%2
0sanitaire%20qui%20a%20utilis%C3%A9%20tunisie%20dans%20les%2020%20siecles&f=false
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us%20Ebola.pdf
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NTXDkb3zgjLgTAJaDFF8Q
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depister-rapidement-les-cas-positifs/?fbclid=IwAR3ODCN3ZRcBOJVwNirbBerOQPhfR78RsoMPJaRV3r_cIAFOWYr8V3P73R0
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26/tunisie-coronavirus-2000-lits-pour-accueillir-les-personnes-
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%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D9%87%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86-
%D9%88%D9%83%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D9%88%D8
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3b5Bc8fzuCZBx2UyCY96w8VZSwJ76dT0YK1xqlo9DCc-9D9ltQoa3vcBo https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-
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• soci%C3%A9tale-des-organisations-(RSO)-%C3%A0-l%E2%80%99%C3%A8re-du-
Coronavirus,526,96217,3?fbclid=IwAR24y-QiYF8HaLuUIJxhkgtJLTeg-_MrKfHb2_BQA3YMc8vY-Unus6_MSmA
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initiatives-se-multiplient-les-dons-affluent-277191%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0EE055 n5FNuzCmUN9F5XWzZiZtQKUvSW8HP-
q6DgE-7zbM9ztDlUWHk&h=AT0uWxxFSmN M7DeSoPZQzKAST50HNgsKtLZK5l6wBkg6
z84nm1gfNTMUVwppCJiz6ttCbQFV8wFa-a9 xmsPcCRhv44gfpRV9hWlwK8Ky-HicIYwtEz9EOq3-nMDfbbeEvOVQ
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